Genel Energy (LSE:GENL) — Half Year Results

0:00 Good morning, and welcome to the GENEL ENERGY PLC Investor Presentation. Throughout this recorded presentation, investors will be in listen only mode. Questions are encouraged and could be submitted at any time via the Q and A tab situated on the right hand corner of your screen. Simply type in your questions and press send. The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself. However, the company can review all questions submitted today and publish responses where it's appropriate to do so. Before we begin, I'd like to submit the following poll, and I'd now like to hand you over to Paul CEO. Good morning, sir.

0:31 Good morning. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the GENEL ENERGY half year results presentation for 2025, which follows yesterday's release of our interim results statement. And as you've just heard, my name is Paul Paul Weir. I'm GENEL's chief executive, and I'm joined here today by our CFO, Luke Clement. I'm gonna take ten minutes or so to quickly run through a series of about eight very straightforward slides. And at the end, with Luke, we'll take whatever questions have been submitted. The first slide then, many of you will be familiar with this slide. We start with an overview of the business. On the left, the strong and resilient platform underpinned by performance and by our focus on cost discipline. Next, our balance sheet remains strong, and earlier this year, we undertook to address the upcoming maturity of our bond to ensure that we continue to have the funding in place to pursue our strategic objective of acquiring new production assets to diversify our cash generation.

1:31 Through that process, we increased our cash by about $25,000,000 and reset bond maturity out to 2030. Our overall cash position has, in fact, increased by about $30,000,000 since the start of the year. The $25,000,000 increase has been bolstered by Tauke cash generation, which has been sufficient to cover our costs and generate further $5,000,000 of free cash in addition. I'm pleased to report that... Sorry. You'll be aware, I suppose, that over a two day period in mid July, IOC operated oil operations in Kurdistan were targeted by drone attacks. The Turkey license, sadly, was one of the licensees' impact. I'm pleased to report no one was harmed in these attacks. Our operations in Kurdistan were already on high alert status given recent military action between Israel and Iran. So the operator had already minimized manning at our sites.

2:26 There was, however, some damage to a storage tank at Talkine to some surface processing equipment at Peshkabir. These events have caused a temporary stoppage while damage is assessed and repairs are affected. We're liaising closely with DNO, the operator, as that damage is repaired, systems are modified, and as we prepare to commence the restart plan. In addition, we are currently evaluating the cash loss mitigation provided by the insurance policies that we hold for these situations. And as things stand today, with consistent production expected to restart at reduced levels relatively soon, we're able to reiterate our guidance on year end net cash as unchanged. On Kurdistan exports, talks are ongoing between the federal government of Iraq, the KRG, and representatives of the international oil companies, and we continue to take a keen interest in these talks as they intensify.

3:20 We remain committed to the strategic objective of diversifying our cash generation, and we are pleased to have now started preparatory work on Block 54 in Oman, where we expect physical activity in the field to start around the end of the year. I'll provide a little bit more detail, on this later in the presentation. We also continue to work towards drilling the Tucson one well in Somali land, and, again, there's more on that to follow. Finally and importantly, our search for the right new assets continues. We continue to originate and bid on opportunities that we like, and we are keen to add to our success in entering a man with the addition of cash generative assets in preferred jurisdictions. Onto the next slide, please. As you will know, all of our current cash generation comes from the Telke PSC where we have a 25% equity interest.

4:13 Telke has a very significant remaining reserves volume, and you can see from the chart that production performance has been very consistent since late twenty twenty three when domestic sales began. That's largely due to the operators' active and very effective well management program that ensures we get maximum benefit from the capital that we invest. As a result, with production averaging close to 80,000 barrels a day and with our spend being entirely in line with expectations, Tawke is generating good cash flow in the period. Operating cost per barrel remained very low at less than $4 a barrel, which, of course, provides us with great resilience in the event of oil price volatility and provides lots of headroom should we elect to increase investment further. And as you've heard me say repeatedly over the last couple of years, if we can access international pricing again through resumption of exports through the ITP, then revenue per barrel can more than double.

5:09 Onto the next slide, please. The table on this next slide provides a summary of some important key data for the period. You can see that Tawke cash generation has more than covered our costs in the first half of the year, with our production business generating $6,000,000 of free cash flow and our bottom line free cash flow of $5,000,000. Once again, we're guiding that net cash will be about the same at the end of the year as it was at the start. This guidance assumes that production restarts successfully and has ramped up to a reasonable level on the Telke PSC. The operator continues to work hard on its evaluation of the damage and on the right plan to restore and increase production safely. But I can tell you that even at relatively low levels of production, we do not expect the impact on our year end cash position to be significant.

5:57 It's perhaps worth pointing out here that our efforts to tidy up the portfolio has essentially been completed with the, SARTA and CARADAG licenses now relinquished and with the legacy TAC TAC asset divested to our partners on that license. The exit from these licenses has incurred no new cost, and we retain minimal liability exposure. We've also relinquished the Leggzira license in Morocco, which leaves us with a much simpler and cleaner portfolio. Next slide, please. This slide summarizes the balance sheet. Our position has improved on the year end 2024 position. You can see the circa $30,000,000 increase in cash that I've already mentioned as a result of the new bond and free cash flow generation.

6:43 Our net balances with KRG are about the same as at the end of last year, with the small change being the result of our portfolio tidy up. Worth also mentioning, I think, the mitigation of a decommissioning liability risk. We've added here in pink the decom provision held on the balance sheet at the end of last year. Following divestment, we no longer hold that liability, so that provision has now been removed from the balance sheet. Another issue that remains very important for us is that there is still no payment plan in place for that net figure of around $50,000,000 put to us by the KRG, and recovery of debt remains a key feature in the dialogue that has been taking place with both regional and federal governments on export resumption. I should also mention that there's been no change in status of arbitration legal fees owed by our subsidiary, GENBL, to the KRG with the result of the appeal on that cost award not yet known.

7:40 Next slide, please. We have consistently stated our determination to diversify our cash generation with the addition of new production assets in preferred jurisdictions. A very brief reminder here of what we have in mind when we talk about geographical diversification and establishing new sources of free cash flow. Our entry into man's a very important first step on a journey that will involve several steps. Our diversification will be progressive. We have a natural inclination towards the MENA region, but our screening system extends to a number of other different areas too. Our ideal acquisition will be a cash generative production asset or something that is close to production. It certainly has to be value accretive and offer us upside. We continue to originate and evolve opportunities that fit these criteria.

8:29 It's not an easy task, and care and patients are required. We have bid in this reporting period and continue to work towards delivering the right deal with the right characteristics, and that most importantly delivers cash, growth, long term value to our shareholders. Next slide, please. I hope this map's legible for everyone. Block 54 is situated along the flank of the very prolific South Oman Salt basin adjacent to existing production operations and infrastructure. It is a great postcode. When use of the Amandio broke, we made mention of the fact that our first task would be to reenter a well drilled previously to test the flow potential of discovered resources that had never been tested.

9:17 That work will start around the turn of the year, and the findings will inform the longer term work plan that we and our partners OQEP will then build. Our activities going forward may center on those areas, or we may determine that there are better locations elsewhere in the block to appraise and develop. Time will tell. The important news is that work is starting on this very exciting opportunity in the coming months. Next slide, please. Very briefly, in Somaliland, the Tucson prospect represents a highly prospective frontier exploration opportunity, proven in adjacent Yemen. But as you've heard me say before, we will only risk drilling capital when the right conditions are in place. And with that in mind, we continue to work with the new Somaliland government elected at the end of twenty four on the building blocks required to deliver what will be a historic first well in the region for more than thirty five years.

10:13 Next and final slide, please. Okay. For a recap, we remain committed to maintaining our resilient platform and strong balance sheet, and we'll continue to work to deliver the best performance out of our assets and our people. Our overarching strategic objective remains to build, to build a business with resilient, repeatable cash flows that fund a repeatable dividend and delivers value to our shareholders. We are very pleased to have delivered underlying free cash flow this period. Going forward, organically, we're very focused on optimizing value from the Tauke license and supporting the operator to deliver safe production resumption and then ramp up in order to minimize the impact of the recent interruptions. In Oman, in coming months, we will finalize the activity plan for that first important piece of infield activity with work actually beginning around the end of the year and testing results around the end of the first quarter of twenty twenty six.

11:09 That work will then inform the next steps on the license. In Somaliland, we continue to work to bring this opportunity into play in the right conditions and on the right terms. And, of course, we retain our key strategic objectives to enhance and diversify our free cash flow generation through the resumption of exports from Kurdistan, which will be transformational in terms of cash generation and recovery of receivables and by adding material and value accretive new production assets. That brings us to the end of this formal presentation. So I'm I'm gonna hand back over to Luke, and we'll take whatever questions that you may have. Thank you very much. Okay. Thanks, Paul.

11:55 We've got quite a few questions. I might have to, combine a few of them, but let's let's see how we go. So first question, when will dividends recommence?

12:09 We believe that the best dividend program is one where the dividend is significant and sustainable and supported by resilient, repeatable free cash flow generation. You've heard us say that many times. That's how you provide reliable value to shareholders and get the most benefit into the share price. The resumption of dividend payment is a matter discussed routinely with the board and as recently as last week. We recognize that there are other ways to pay a dividend. And given that we generated free cash flow in the first half of the year, we may have considered a special dividend. But given where we are, the board concluded that right now the best approach was to keep cash for our key strategic priority, which is acquisition of new production assets. We've been consistent with that view since since the dividend was suspended some time ago.

12:58 Thank you, Paul. Next one on the pipeline. Even though the pipeline hasn't reopened yet, is it still intact, or has it been vandalized? If so, would it be safe to ever use it again?

13:12 You may remember that just around the time that the ITP closed towards the end of q one in twenty twenty three, there was, in fact, a very serious earthquake in Turkey that at the time the authorities thought might have potentially damaged the pipeline. Subsequent thorough checks by them have confirmed that there is, in fact, no damage, and and the pipeline is in good order. The Turkish government actually has quite recently confirmed that the pipeline is serviceable and ready for use. So we don't anticipate any problems with the ITP.

13:46 Okay. Thank you, Paul. Next one, which I think you've partly answered in your presentation already, but no harm in saying it again. How confident are you that the Kurdistan Iraq relationship and concurrent oil flows be set right by the end of twenty twenty five?

14:08 Look. Talks are ongoing as as everyone probably knows. There's been quite a lot of media flow around that. And and in recent weeks, there have been a level of intensity and granularity that suggest... A new level of intensity and granularity that suggest a deal may, in fact, be getting closer. But we've been there before. I mean, given the inherent volatility and unpredictability within Iraqi politics, it's it's impossible, I'm afraid, say with complete confidence that a deal is close. We remain as close to to those negotiations as we possibly can, and we will continue to try and influence them as best as we can. But I'm I'm not gonna sit here and suggest to anybody that a deal is definitely doable within 2025. Thank you. There's quite a few questions on Tawke production restart. What's the extent of this?

14:58 I'm gonna kinda combine them. What's the extent of the damage to Tawke in Peshkabir? Has production been halted? Has it now resumed? What what can we expect from Tawke in the second half?

15:12 So the damage was quite specific. There was a there was a store... There was a direct hit on a small storage tank at Tawke, and that damaged the tank potentially beyond repair. And there was some surface processing equipment at Pest Rebure that was damaged. When that event happened... When those events happened, production was in fact completely halted and has been halted since. But the operator has been working very hard to conduct a very thorough damage assessment, which you will understand takes time and perhaps even specialist input, and then go on to conduct repairs and replace damaged equipment and to modify systems that would allow a safe restart to resume. It's not like throwing a switch. There will be have... There will have to be some tests done. There will have to be some testing of critical equipment done before we can consider a full and complete restart. But that work is ongoing, and we are staying very close to DNL on that as they repair, configure, test the systems that would allow us to resume production and sales.

16:14 Thank you, Paul. Moving to the balance sheet now. Could you please explain $87,000,000 of current trade and other payables at the half year? I... I'm I'm guessing that's probably one for me, Paul. Yeah. It's certainly one for you. So, you're probably asking about that balance because it looks like quite a big balance. The the the two the two bits in there that are quite big is there's a... There's the accrual for the arbitration that's owed by GENBL in in in the consolidated account. You have to show that. And then there's, about 30,000,000 of positive working capital movements that that came about last year.

16:52 Again, balances raised to the KRG. So about 60 of that is is kind of abnormal. The rest of it is is normal payable balances.

17:02 Next question. What is the current net receivable from the KRG? Again, that's probably one for me, Paul. The current net receivable is about $50,000,000. So... And that's comprised of 88,000,000 nominal, owed by the KRG for sales, and that's based on KBT pricing. And you'll remember in the past, we we haven't accepted KBT pricing. It's also a nominal number, which doesn't include any interest, which under the PSC, you'd expect to accrue. So the nominal is 88,000,000, and then it's offset by about $38,000,000 that we owe to the KRG. So that's how you get to the net $50,000,000 balance. Separate to that, not included in that is the arbitration award accrual of $27,000,000.

17:57 Next question. Would the annual 10,000,000 bond interest cost not be better allocated to buybacks or dividend given the low share price and market cap? I think that's one for me again. Is that right, Paul? Yeah. Both on it. I think with this one, you gotta look at you gotta look at the optionality the cash brings rather than the cost. And, you the the the the interest cost on that is is is not 10 because, obviously, the the cash that we hold at the moment is only interest itself. It's it's more like 5 or $6,000,000 that we're paying in net interest cost over the year. We paid that $5,000,000 as a as a one off dividend. You know, you don't really change the investment case. I think I think what you do by paying a a $5,000,000 special dividend is is you recognize that the last two years have been pretty tough, and you and you...

18:49 And what you're doing is you're giving a dividend, but it's not part of a program. It's not a long term commitment, and therefore, your long term share price benefit from that is minimal. The other side of it is if that $5,000,000 is spent having a $100,000,000 of optionality cash on your balance sheet, which you can put together with your net cash of a 130,000,000, then you've got quite a lot of money there to potentially diversify your business and transform the the outlook of the value delivery and the cash generation of the business. So it... For for me, it's it's it's quite simple that we're better off paying net interest cost and seeking to achieve the strategic diversification that we're pursuing rather than not have that optionality and and pay a small a small dividend that, to be honest, relative to peers, is is is not really that big either.

19:35 So it doesn't really achieve a lot.

19:39 How soon does GENEL expect to deploy cash raised from the bond? I think that's kind of a follow on. You know, we've raised the money because we expect to use it. You know, we've raised that money because we expect to use it. We are we are consistently screening opportunities. We've we've bid in the we've bid in the first half. We're ongoing discussions on some assets. You know, clearly, there's no point in us raising capital if we're if we're trying to spend it in two years. We've we've we've identified diversification as a strategic priority, and we continue to work towards that. You know, clearly, there's a dream situation where you only raise the money exactly when you need it, and you save some interest cost. But but as an example, right now, if we needed the money to buy an asset with talking not actually producing at the moment, the terms we'd get would probably be adverse to what we got last time. So it's it's a balance.

20:32 We we didn't take as much bond debt as we could have done. I think we could have taken 200 or more. It's chose to be quite careful about that for exactly this reason. We didn't want too much burden on the balance sheet, and we didn't want too much net interest cost. You know, even $5,000,000 is a lot of money to us, but we think we've got the balance right, and we we are confident we can use it. Otherwise, we wouldn't have raised it. Hopefully, that answered the question. Next question. Why did you leave Morocco when you were just steps away from a discovery through the Benassa well? I'll take that one. I appreciate the confidence steps away from a discovery. Look. We we like Morocco, and we we spent a lot of time there. We we actually drilled two wells in Morocco about a decade ago, and and we always found the regulator there on them to be very collaborative, easy to work with, very supportive of what we were trying to do.

21:33 But we got to a point where we were simply unable to find a partner to share the risk, the investment risk on the opportunity. So we concluded that the best thing to do right now was to exit and minimize our our cost leakage and focus our African exploration efforts on Somali land, which we think is at the high end of the the suite of opportunities that are in front of us. It took us a while to get there. It wasn't an easy decision to make, but on balance, we think it was the right thing for for the company. Agreed. Next question, which is kinda linked to the the bond question I had a little bit. Is management considering bringing in a new business development team to drive growth given the lack of success for the current team?

22:24 Tough crowd. Look. We've said we've said a number of times that we are originating opportunities really well. We don't think we're missing any deals. We're close to what's happening throughout the marketplace. And beyond that, we're actually instigating processes ourselves. So from an origination point of view, we don't think that we have a problem. What's challenging us, of course, is the number of suitable opportunities available and and the competition for good assets. We have, after all, set ourselves a pretty high bar, cash generative production assets with upside. And the key issue that our board has to weigh up is getting the asset at a fair price versus overexposure of the company. Ultimately, we're here to deliver value for the shareholders.

23:12 So we'll continue to keep our discipline until we find the right assets in the right country on the right terms. Our biggest mistake right now would be to rush towards a bad deal. We're confident that we'll get there. As I said in the presentation, care and patience are required. Thank you, Paul. When does GENEL expect to learn about its arbitration cost appeal outcome? Well, that cost appeal was submitted in May. Sadly, the timing is completely outside of our control. It could be weeks. It could be months. I'm afraid it's impossible predict how long it will take. Obviously, first thing we do every morning is check our mailbox, but I I can't honestly give an indication when we might expect a response to our appeal.

24:02 K. Thank you. There's a few questions that I'm gonna combine on Somaliland here. Please, can you provide some more color on Somaliland operations outlook? So the project remains active. It's something that we continue to work on. The civil engineering scope, which which we drew to a close some time ago, was an important boots on the ground activity, but there are there are... That's only part of what's happening. There are lots of other things that happen out with the actual field of play, so to speak, And lots of things going on behind the scenes that represent important building blocks towards drilling an exploration well in a frontier area like this.

24:49 Stakeholder engagement to all levels, everyone from local communities to the highest level of governments to our partners in Taiwan, Very important relationships and very important dialogue is and continues to take place with with with these people. It's not it's not a case of... We we haven't delayed spudding the well. It's more a case of ensuring that the appropriate conditions are in place for us to step forward. Important that all the commercial and operational considerations are taken into account. So we just... We continue to work it. We have room on the license to allow us to take the time to do this correctly. Thank you, Paul. There's quite a few questions about extensive damage to Tawke and Peshkabir.

25:39 Exact timing for production restart. Is it one month? Is it six months? I think we've answered these as much as we can, to be honest, Paul, so I don't think it's worth repeating them. I think you've been pretty clear on giving as much information as we have at the moment. Keep going through. More questions about export restart, which which, again, Paul, I think I think we've given as much as we can on something which is a which is a process we don't have control of, but it clearly... Very interested and motivated in trying to progress. Can you disclose the costs of the upcoming Amman program, please? Do you wanna take that one, Paul, or was that me? I don't mind.

26:35 Well, we anticipate spending somewhere between 2.5 and $3,000,000 this year. Obviously, the program of work that we're committed to over the next three years is probably three or four times that number. But but in the foreseeable future, we anticipate spending somewhere between 2.5 and $3,000,000. Yeah. Agree. More questions around when do we expect export restart? Look, I mean, it doesn't surprise me that that's investors' main area of focus. Do you wanna do you wanna just say a few words? We... We've made the point in the presentation that we don't expect our year end cash position to change significantly. Do you wanna just talk a little bit about the insurance policies that we have in place?

27:27 Yeah. Sure. We've... I mean, we've... We we mentioned in the r and s that we had insurance policies in place. We didn't give a... An awful lot of detail on it because we are working through them, but we we hold insurance that that... To cover both dam... Damage caused on the cost of repair, increased cost of production, and lost income. So we are working with insurers to provide the details for them to assess that assess that claim, and we will update once we have a better view on how that how that works out. But we don't... I don't wanna I don't wanna promise until until I know the situation, but it... But but we feel like we've got the appropriate insurance to cover those losses. Any details regarding IOC's negotiations with Iraq on receivables and binding agreements?

28:20 I don't know if there's any more detail to give at this stage, Paul. It's it's ongoing discussions. I don't know if you wanna give any... Anything more on that. It's Well, I I... At at the risk of boring people, I'll I'll repeat what I said during the course of the presentation. The the intensity of the negotiations has increased in recent weeks, the the the type of conversations that people are having around the details of specific aspects of a deal tend to suggest that people are focusing now on implementation detail, and and that's encouraging. But it would be wrong to assume that that is ultimately gonna result in a positive outcome.

29:06 We're staying as close to it as we can, but Iraq is an unpredictable place, and the political theater is particularly unpredictable. So it's difficult for us to... It would be wrong for us to try and suggest to you that we see that the light at the end of the tunnel, which is certainly there, is is getting significantly closer. I appreciate that's not the answer that people want. Think it's worth it's worth adding more, isn't it? Our our ask is very simple. You know? It's a piece of paper that confirms, you know, the the terms in which we're gonna be selling our oil and how we're gonna get paid and a commitment to comply with that process. You know, it's it's it's... We've got a POC which tells us how we calculate our revenue, and what we want to understand is that that will be complied with, and we want to be clear and confident that we will get paid what we are owed.

29:54 And and that's our ask in simple terms. So, you know, the the the the the process is is complex. There's a there's a budget approval in Baghdad, which is helpful as a starting point, and you all know that talks about $16 a barrel as an initial kind of payment. It talks about a true up process to get what the real dollar per barrel should be, which is much higher than that. And we want to understand how that works and how we will get paid in order to restart exports. It's a it's a very simple ask. More questions on Tauke production restart timing. I think we probably covered.

30:46 Yep. I think we've covered all of the questions. Okay. Let's close that. Alright. So that brings the q and a to a close. I'll just say I'll just say a few closing remarks then before we shut the call down. I just want to thank everyone again for their attendance today, and I'd I'd like to finish by repeating a couple of the key points from the presentation. Despite all the challenges that we faced in the first half of the year, GENEL has been able to generate free cash flow in the reporting period. And based on what we know today, we don't anticipate any significant change to our cash position at the end of the year. And I think that's important, certainly worth repeating. What's also worth repeating is the fact that Tauke is a world class asset in the hands of a world class operator and continues to perform incredibly well and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

31:41 And finally, from me, you know, we remain entirely committed to a strategy of acquisition that will, in time, diversify and improve our cash generation, and we look forward to telling you more about our business in due course. Paul, Luke, thank you for updating investors today. Can I please ask investors not to close the session as you'll now be automatically redirected provide your feedback in order that the management team can better understand your views and expectations? This may only take a few moments to complete, and I'm sure it'll be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of GENEL ENERGY PLC, we'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and good morning to you all.