Ampol (ASX:ALD) Q2 2026 Earnings Call

0:01 Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ampol Limited half year twenty twenty six results briefing. All participants are in a listen only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

0:23 I would now like to hand the conference over to mister Matt Halliday, managing director and CEO. Please go ahead. Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. My name is Matt Halliday. I'm the managing director and CEO of Ampol, and welcome to our twenty twenty six half year results call. During the presentation, we'll be referring to the documents lodged with the ASX this morning, including our results presentation and supporting materials. Before we begin, I draw your attention to the important notice on slide two. As usual, today's presentation does include forward looking statements and non IFRS measures, and I encourage you to read the notice carefully. I'm joined today by our group CFO, Greg Barnes, who will take you through the financial results in more detail.

1:08 And after the prepared remarks, Greg and I will take your questions. Also joining us on the call are members of the executive team who will support the Q and A. I'll start as always with safety. Across the group, we had no tier one or tier two process safety incidents in the first half of twenty six and none since July 25. That is an important outcome and reflects the continued embedding of our integrated operational risk management framework. On personal safety, the picture is more mixed with total recordable injury frequency rate increasing. However, we have also introduced a serious case frequency rate to better capture cases that result in more than a week away from work, including musculoskeletal and psychosocial matters.

1:57 This gives us a clearer view of where we need to focus. Turning now to the integrated platform on slide five. Ampol has built a leading Asia Pacific physical fuel optimization platform that leverages our infrastructure, logistics, and trading capabilities and market intelligence to generate resilient earnings through the cycle. The first half of twenty six really demonstrated the value of Ampol's integrated supply chain and trading capability. While the market conditions were certainly exceptional, the result also reflected the strength of our supply position, our risk management capability, our customer relationships, and our ability to optimise product flows throughout the value chain. The important takeaway is that this capability has been built over many years.

2:47 It comes from investment in supply optimisation, terminals, gluten, risk management, and our retail networks. Therefore, the strength of the first half result is the demonstration of our integrated platform working as intended, maintaining fuel security for customers and creating value for shareholders, especially when markets are tight and disrupted.

3:11 Turning to the performance overview on slide six. Ampol delivered a very strong first half result on an ARCOP basis, with EBITDA of 1,640,000,000, EBIT of 1,390,000,000 and NPAT of $860,000,000 Statutory NPAT was $1,360,000,000 including inventory gains and significant items. The result reflects both favourable market conditions and the structural benefits of our integrated platform, with underlying performance improved across multiple segments. Convenience retail continued to grow, commercial and wholesale customer relationships were further strengthened, and our trading and shipping capabilities supported supply security and therefore earnings during a period of major market disruption.

4:02 Turning now to the key group metrics. Total sales volume was resilient at 12,300,000,000 litres and up ex net sell. Net borrowings increased to $3,520,000,000 principally reflecting the completion of the EG Australia acquisition on June 30, including our decision to cash settle the scrip component of the consideration. Even with that acquisition funding, leverage remained below our target range at around 1.8 times, supported by the very strong ARCOP EBITDA outcome and inventory gain. That balance sheet strength, together with the cash generated in the half underpins the board's decision to declare an interim dividend of 185¢ per share.

4:50 Now on slide eight. Given the important role that Ampol plays in the communities where we operate, a financially strong Ampol benefits all our stakeholders. We were able to maintain uninterrupted supply to customers and dealers through wholesale and retail supply chains. This includes the Yugo discount brand, which provided lower cost fuel to customers during the peak of the crisis each and every day. We had a clear focus on supply to the regions with supply volume increasing by 30% in March, And we have expanded our partnership with rural aid for three years back in farming families and the regions more generally. We played a key role in Australia and New Zealand in building additional national inventory levels with the support of the governments of both countries.

5:40 And I'm proud to say that our people work safely and tirelessly in the midst of the crisis, showing tremendous commitment to keeping Australia and New Zealand moving. I'll now hand over to Greg to take you through the detail of the group and segment financial performance. Thank you, Matt. Good morning, everyone. As Matt said said, this was a very strong half. In fact, for the first half of twenty twenty six, our earnings exceeded any full year result we've ever reported. This reflects the extraordinary disruption that took place and our team's ability to navigate this and keep fuel flowing to our customers. I'll take you through the group level results and then into the detail of each segment on subsequent slides. So if we turn to slide 10, you can see the detail behind group sales volumes.

6:32 Overall, sales volumes were up 1.5% at 12,300,000,000 liters for the half, once you look through the net sell volumes, which will move around from period to period. Convenience retail volumes increased 2.4% supported by product availability and the continued expansion of YUGO. Australian wholesale volumes excluding the net sale also grew by 2.9%, reflecting the consistency of our supply chain in keeping fuel flowing during this disrupted period. Zed energy volumes were lower, down 2.5% as lower as local market dynamics impacted demand and the ability to pass through higher fuel costs to customers.

7:17 Looking at product mix, middle distillates continue to represent more than 70% of our transport fuel sales volumes. Within this, jet was up more than 10% year on year, driven by growth in Australian and international markets. We go to slide 11. It sets out our group's financial performance. Our COP EBITDA was $1,600,000,000. That's up a 152% on the prior corresponding period. And our COP EBIT was $1,400,000,000, up 245%. As I mentioned earlier, we're obviously we obviously benefited from very favorable market conditions, but we also executed very well throughout the value chain, and this is reflected in a high quality and broad based result.

8:05 I'm gonna step through each segment in a moment, but before doing so, we look at our comp impact. It was $857,000,000 for the period, reflecting the strong underlying result. Our effective tax rate was 30% on a higher earnings contribution from Australia, as well as some minor one off adjustments. The underlying rate was about 28.5%. Lower interest expense was a result of lower debt levels prior to the acquisition of EG, which took place on the June 30 and was net of $24,000,000 of interest that was capitalized in relation to multi year capital works. Statutory impact was $1,400,000,000.

8:51 This includes inventory gains, reflecting rising product improved costs over the six month period. Statutory impact also included significant items, including costs associated with the acquisition of EG. So if we turn to each business, slide 12 shows you the size and the breadth of the F and I EBIT result. The Litten refinery had an extraordinary result. Margins were very strong due to regional supply constraints and the cost of importing equivalent product during the period. The result also reflects an extremely consistent operating performance, a credit to the hard yards of the team, led by Michelle Barty and Stuart Simons, and what they have put in, to improve reliability over the period.

9:40 Likewise, our sourcing and distribution businesses performed well. You can see that in the Australian international results. Securing term supply, ensuring supply performance, optimization across markets, and process management all play their part in delivering a very strong operating result and ensuring that our customers got the fuel they needed. Energy Solutions also benefited from the focus of that team on public charging following the restructure last year.

10:11 Slide 13 looks at the key operating metrics for lithium. I've already talked to the reliability of operations at the refinery, and that's reflected in the graph on the right hand side. On the left hand side, you can see that the lithium refiner margin averaged US $28.26 per barrel for the half compared with $7.44 per barrel in the prior corresponding period. Remembering every US $1 is worth about 30,000,000 Aussie dollars per half. You can also see the uptick in the July margin where we also ran at full production before heading into the major maintenance efforts in August. And while we're on this slide, I just wanted to remind people of the government's revision to the fuel security services payment or the FSSP, which took place earlier this year.

11:05 My sense is this got a little lost in the noise of the Iran conflict, which followed shortly afterwards. The revision sees the cap and collar lifted from a previous range of 4.6 to 6.4 per liter, that is, and has increased that to 8.2 to 10¢ per liter. As the red line on that graph on the left hand side shows, this moves the cap to be broadly in line with the average performance over the last five years. This will make a big difference to stability of refining earnings in future years. It also comes ahead of a second phase review, which we'll be looking to progress over the remainder of this year. Slide 14 shows the drivers of Lytton's earnings year on year. Rick, we've touched on, the refining margins and production, which were the key drivers already, so I'm just gonna move to slide 15.

12:00 Slide 15 talks through the F and I international result. As most of are aware, we operate one supply optimization or trading and shipping team out of Singapore and Houston. The primary role of this team is to support physical supply, sea freight, price risk management of refined products into our Australian and New Zealand businesses, as well as crude oil to the Lytton Refinery. The benefits of these activities is included in Littmann, F and I Australia, and New Zealand results. The scale of our physical short into Australia and New Zealand and the insights we gain by being a major buyer in the region enables Ampol to derive additional value via our international business.

12:49 This can come from sale of fuel to third parties, fuel blending and storage, managing time charters, or capitalizing on pricing dislocation between markets. In many respects, we are unique in an Australian New Zealand context in our ability to do this at scale within tightly controlled risk settings, and it's a source of significant outperformance in periods like what we've just seen. So while the source of the result might vary year to year, positioning the capabilities to leverage these market insights that we generate and adapt to changing market conditions means we can create value that others cannot. This capability has taken over a decade to build, requires little capital, and supplements the benefits we see flowing through the rest of our system.

13:38 Slide 16 shows the F and I Australia result. The business delivered a very strong first half with ARCOP EBIT increasing to $309,000,000. In a period where less reliable supply chains came under pressure, Ampol was able to supply customers including through periods of pull forward demands. The result also includes supply benefits from term supply, favorably priced ahead of the conflict, and the optimization by trading and shipping of barrels flowing into the Australian market.

14:16 If we turn to energy solutions on slide 17, it's fair to say with the exit from retail electricity, we've simplified our approach to energy solutions and are now very focused on electric vehicle charging. Across Australia and New Zealand, we delivered 79 public charging bays in the first half, up from 49 in the prior corresponding period. Charging sessions and energy sold continue to grow, particularly in Australia. We're keeping a close eye on this market, and we're positive about the potential for EV charging demand to accelerate. The two charts on the right hand side tell some of that story. We're seeing rising EV sales as a percentage of new car sales driven by the availability of more affordable Chinese vehicles.

15:06 Noting that EVs represented 20% of new car sales during the second quarter of this year. And secondly, the industry is seeing constraints in getting access to new sites and grid capacity to build charges to meet this demand. This should support utilization and reward those with access to good sites and the power. That puts Ampol in a strong position to leverage its capabilities and assets in the years ahead.

15:37 Moving now to our Australian convenience retail business on slide 18. This was yet another strong result, extending the earnings growth that we have seen for a number of years now. Total retail fuel sales volume was up 2.4% with growth in Ampol Foodery and YUGO. We extended the half with 47 sorry, we ended the half with 47 YUGO sites, and YUGO YUGO fuel volume growth was 64%. While premium fuels are down as a percentage of total fuel volume sold, This is largely due to growth in base grade fuels, the YUGO growth or market share gains in a period where less stable supply chains were really challenged.

16:28 Shop performance was also strong with the headline shop sales up 0.4 of 1%. Excluding tobacco and sites converted a year ago, network shop sales grew 3.5%. Shop gross margin increased to 40.1%, and average basket value increased by 2.6%. Slide 19 really highlights the long term trend of the retail performance. You can see the improvement in shop gross margin over time, the consistent improvement in average basket value despite the impact of tobacco, and the continued growth in convenience retail EBIT.

17:13 The consistency of performance in convenience retail puts us in a great position as we integrate the EG Australia business in the coming months. This provides a clear pathway to scale for the YUGO format while extending the network and improving customer experience at Ampol Foodaring.

17:33 Slide 20 shows the bridge for convenience retail earnings. EBIT increased by $21,800,000 year on year. Fuel income was the largest driver, reflecting volume growth and premium fuel mix. Shop income held broadly flat despite tobacco, and disciplined cost management helped support overall earnings outcomes. Turning to New Zealand on slide 21. It's fair to say that had a more challenging half, primarily due to the way the market reacted to the Iran conflict. Retail fuel volumes were lower in the half, reflecting softer conditions and the slower pass through of rapidly rising input costs. This impacted demand and also margins as board prices lagged the rising cost of refined fuels.

18:25 The underlying retail platform performed well. Average basket value increased to $15.45, and store gross margin continued to improve. You can see on slide 22, it shows the New Zealand earnings bridge, and this chart is in New Zealand dollars. You can see we've normalized FY '25 results to remove earnings from businesses we have since exited, including Flick Energy and dividends from channel infrastructure.

18:56 The underlying business performance highlights the demand and temporary fuel margin impacts I just mentioned a moment ago. And while the chart above present is presented in New Zealand dollars, it's also worth noting that the Kiwi dollar weakened year on year. And as a result, the translation to Aussie dollars was impacted by approximately $6,500,000 year on year.

19:21 Okay. So if we go to our balance sheet and cash flow on slide 23, The result is a a great reminder of just how cash generative this business can be. Our record earnings converted into a healthy cash generation despite the need to carry more inventory given the supply chain challenges our industry is facing. It's important to note, however, that these cash flows do not include the tax on earnings generated in the period. These taxes will not be paid until mid the middle of twenty twenty seven and will be an uplift of approximately $500,000,000. Now the reality is we should all we should be able to unwind working capital at a similar rate.

20:08 The all cash acquisition of EG on the June 30 added approximately $1,100,000,000 to net debt. The timing of the EG acquisition was for choice, and it got and given the strength of their performance during the half, we elected to cash out the script component of the EG consideration for $315,000,000.

20:31 You'll also note that Ampol is carrying a $148,000,000 of additional inventory in an arrangement with Export Finance Australia to further bolster the fuel reserves in Australia. Ampol takes no price risk from these categories or these cargoes, I should say, and will be compensated for the cost of carry and handling costs associated with managing the volume.

20:55 As a result of all of that, net borrowings ended the half at 3,500,000,000 billion dollars, and leverage on net debt to EBITDA was 1.8 turns, reflecting the strong earnings result. And lastly, from me, slide 24. The strong earnings and cash flow performance has enabled us to declare $441,000,000 of dividends or a 185¢ per share interim dividend.

21:25 This is our largest dividend ever and is in addition to the $315,000,000 cash out of the agent script consideration during the period, which you could argue is akin to a buyback. More broadly, we are committed to our capital allocation framework, that is maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, paying dividends within our targeted range of 50% to 70% of our comp impact, deploying capital where we see returns and growth opportunities that are on strategy, and returning surplus capital to shareholders where we do not. As the chart on the left hand side illustrates, we have a strong track record of doing this, and you should expect the same from us in the future.

22:11 So with that, I'll hand back to Matt and take you to take you through the strategy update and the outlook. Thank you. Right. Thanks very much, Greg. We're now moving to the strategy update. So before turning to Outlook, I wanna step back and explain how the result we have just walked through fits with the broader strategic direction of the group. The first half result shows the value of the platform we've been building and strengthening over several years that represents a larger transport energy business, a more resilient earnings base, stronger retail growth options, and meaningful capability in supply trading and risk management. The next few slides set out how we intend to keep building on that platform. Slide 26 sets out the strategic journey we've been on.

23:00 Since 2019, we've progressively strengthened the core, restored the Ampol brand, expanded regionally through Zedd, built capability and retail segmentation, productivity, and energy transition, and then added scale and earnings quality through the AG Australia acquisition.

23:19 This is a cumulative strategy where each step builds on the one before it. The result is a broader transport energy platform with a stronger, more resilient earning space, more retail growth options, greater supply chain capability, and that means more optionality as customer energy needs evolve. The future earnings profile will be increasingly supported by convenience retail, Hugo, commercial fuels, and DG integration, supported by a more reliable refining earnings underpinned by FSSP. We have materially grown non refining earnings over this period, including in this half, and that is the direction of travel, which provides context for both the first half result and our priorities for the remainder of the year.

24:06 So turning now to our 2026 priorities. The framework is consistent with the strategy we've spoken about now for some time. Enhance the core business, expand from our rejuvenated fuels platform, and evolve the energy offer for customers. Under enhanced, the focus is on maximizing written value. We expect to start up the low sulfur fuels project towards the end of the year, having completed the written turnaround and inspection early in the fourth quarter. And we expect the regional scarcity of the revised gasoline specification to be supportive of a quality premium.

24:42 We are also progressing the FSSP review with phase one complete with a substantial increase in the level at which it keeps in, and phase two aiming to address the conditions required to secure the refinery operations for the longer term. Acknowledging that oil markets remain tight and volatile, we will continue to prioritize supply to Ampol's key markets to provide supply security during market disruptions, while maintaining flexibility to use insights gathered to manage risk and capture value creation opportunities. Notwithstanding the strong financial performance, productivity remains a priority. We are targeting a further $50,000,000 of nominal cost reduction across '26 and '27, including annualized benefits from energy solution simplification, productivity across the fuel supply chain in Lytton, and YUGO in convenience retail.

25:37 Under expand, the focus is on EG integration and continuing our segmentation strategy across the Australian network, including premium stores, hero product development, and the scaling of Yugo.

25:51 In New Zealand, the priorities are to grow the convenience store business, leveraging the ZEV rewards loyalty program, which will also provide learnings for us in Australia. And under EVOLVE, we will continue to expand EV public charging in Australia and New Zealand with a focus on tier one locations with grid access. Two things are becoming clearer to us. Firstly, that connecting quality locations to the grid is only becoming more expensive. And secondly, public charging is an increasingly important part of the charging solution with attractive margins in the right locations. We'll also continue to participate in shaping the policy settings needed to progress a renewable fuels industry in Australia.

26:37 Moving out to EG Australia. So completion occurred on June 30, and we elected to cash settle the script component of consideration. So the final cash consideration was approximately $1,165,000,000. Cash required was approximately $29,000,000 and the combined company operated network is now around ten eighty sites, net of the 41 sites to be divested.

27:03 The strategic rationale remains compelling. EG strengthens Ampol's investment base, gives us a pathway to scale YUGO and other convenience formats and provides attractive EPS and free cash flow accretion after synergies. We continue to have high confidence in the 65 to $80,000,000 per annum synergy opportunity, which are largely cost related and expected to be delivered within two years post completion. Importantly, this is a business we know well in a market we know well. It gives us scale to expand Ampol Foodery, accelerate YUGO, and improve the consistency and effectiveness of our customer offer right across the network. It is very much an extension of and a logical bolt on to the strategy we we have been pursuing for several years.

27:54 We also have confidence in execution because EG builds on capabilities Ampol has already demonstrated. Retail segmentation, YUGO rollout, food redevelopment, cost discipline, and the successful integration of Zed.

28:09 I'd now like to close today with a view of current trading conditions and the outlook. The first half was clearly a very strong result, but we're focused on what it means for the business going forward. The earnings quality we're building, the cash generation it supports and the opportunities we have to continue growing shareholder value.

28:29 Turning now to slide 30. We've had a strong start to the second half. Lytton's realised refiner margin in July was US $27.11 per barrel with production of 524,000,000 liters, so much stronger than the same time last year. Convenience retail and New Zealand fuel margins are experiencing a period of rising landed costs, which tend to lag through to retail board pricing. The store is performing well with tobacco having stabilised and in fact growing following some strong reinforcement activity. And ex tobacco sales are also experiencing encouraging growth. EG Australia will contribute to convenience retail earnings in Australia and both F and I Australia and international are up year on year.

29:18 The FCC turnaround at Lytton commenced in late July with start up expected in October. Lytton will produce at approximately 70% of normal levels during this period. The low sulfur fuel project is expected to be ready for start up towards the end of the year. Looking to the medium term, the first half demonstrated the structural benefits of our integrated value chain in navigating geopolitical disruption.

29:45 We have earnings catalysts at Lytton through low sulfur fuels and the FSSP phase two review, and in fuel and convenience through the delivery of EG synergies. Importantly, the overarching context is that oil product markets are expected to remain tight as global refinery runs continue to be impacted by the ongoing conflicts in both The Middle East and Russia. Russia has resorted to gasoline imports and the diesel export ban due to intensified and increasingly capable Ukrainian drone attacks. The Atlantic Basin is already maximizing runs and delaying autumn turnarounds, increasing the risk of unplanned outages. And based of India ex China, refinery runs are above June levels, but still about 500,000 barrels per day lower than 2025.

30:36 With the release of trapped Hormuz barrels during June, having allowed Asian refiners to temporarily replenish their inventories.

30:45 And all of this is compounding very low product inventory levels, the middle distillates in particular, with limited new refining project capacity in the global pipeline, and in fact, with some rebuilding required.

30:58 Recent events have highlighted concerns about fuel security for all countries dependent on imports of crude and refined products. And similar to Australia, we are seeing announcements to rebuild or extend strategic reserves. This will take some time given the tightness of the available refinery capacity and the level of current inventories.

31:21 All of this points to a tight refining supply market going forward, and the forward curve for product cracks certainly reflects this, holding up much higher for much longer and shifting up between US 10 to $20 between July and August for the 10 PPM diesel crack. This context is all very positive for Lytton and also a positive market dynamic for the trading and shipping capability that we have built over many years.

31:49 So given these factors, we are confident about our future earnings potential with a number of tailwinds likely to persist, albeit not at the same levels as in the first half. Now on slide 31, I'd like to close out with why we believe Ampol remains a compelling investment proposition. We're not suggesting that the exceptional market conditions experienced in the first half represent a new normal. However, those market conditions do now appear tighter for longer.

32:20 What the first half did demonstrate is that the value of the capabilities we have built over many, many years continues to deliver strong value for shareholders. Our integrated supply chain, trading platform, customer relationships, retail strategy, all contributed to that outcome. The first point is that Ampol has already built a structural base for earnings that is broader and more resilient. The earnings mix has shifted meaningfully over time, and with AG Australia now completed, the contribution from fuel and convenience will continue to grow. Second, while the half benefited from exceptional market conditions, the supply, trading, and infrastructure capability we have built supports customers, protects supply, generates cash, and creates value through the cycle.

33:11 And thirdly, we have clear growth opportunities through convenience retail, YUGO, and EG, and in areas where Ampol has already demonstrated strong execution capability. We expect to see a recovery in trading conditions in New Zealand and opportunities to arise in EV charging as EV uptake steps up and in renewable fuels over time. In addition, there are further potential catalysts from supportive policy shifts for fuel resilience and the energy transition.

33:42 I think it's fair to say the national strategic importance of our infrastructure, including the Lytton Refinery and our trading and supply capability, has in fact never been clearer. And finally, we remain disciplined in capital allocation. We have a strong balance sheet, a track record of returning capital to shareholders, while also investing in the core business and value accretive growth. A strong earnings backdrop as the business moves beyond its current elevated CapEx by the end of this year, positions Ampol very strongly for cash distributions to our shareholders.

34:19 So in closing, we feel good about the position Ampol's in. The first half demonstrated the strength of the platform we have built, which can support customers, generate cash, and create additional value when markets are tight and disrupted. As conditions normalize over time, we believe investors should focus less on where their individual cyclical earnings streams repeat and more on the fact that Ampol exits the half with a stronger earnings space, stronger cash generation, and more avenues for growth than at any point in the last decade.

34:54 As you assess Ampol, we'd encourage you to focus on that stronger platform, greater retail scale, proven supply and trading capability, and strong cash generation with multiple pathways to growth and value creation. Thank you. That concludes the presentation. Greg and I will now take your questions, and we also have members of the executive team on the line to support. So with that, we'll take the first question, please. Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press 2. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. The first question today comes from Michael Samotis with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

35:40 Hi. Good morning, everyone, and and well done on executing so well and making the most of the buoyant conditions. The first question for me is related to the outlook that you present on Slide 30. So the positive or continuation of positive conditions in refining, I guess, is fairly obvious and the charts you've got on that slide are intuitive. Does it make sense to hedge any of your exposure to refining given where the forward curves are? And just interested to understand qualitatively what this dynamic means for the trading and shipping business as well as F and I Australia, given they clearly benefited from this dynamic in the first half as well.

36:29 Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, Michael. Look, we we certainly contemplate and review refine a margin hedging from time to time. We typically don't do a lot of it. We do do some and it's something we'll continue to review. I think part of the message we're trying to convey in delivering this result is it's obviously strong. The trading and shipping capability that Ampol has into this market is quite unique. It's been built over many years. And not only does it capitalize on tight market conditions, but but refining benefits from those top money market conditions, to can trading and shipping. And I think that's it's that capability that was on show in delivering supply security through periods of market disruption. But as market remain markets remain tight going forward, I think that capability equally comes to the fore.

37:31 Okay. Thank you. And then the second one for me is just relating to the turnaround in refining and how we should think about it. I mean, normally, turnaround periods are pretty horrible for earnings. But given the dynamic, you're still going to be making very good profits during this turnaround period. Should we just think about most of the volume impact being in gasoline where crack spreads are weaker, having normal sort of OpEx and pretty close to normal levels of middle distillate production through that period? Yeah, I think the impact is mainly in gasoline, not entirely. But as I mentioned in the comments, we'll be producing at about 70% of normal levels of capacity. Obviously margins remain very strong, including particularly for middle distillates, which are less impacted. It's about the right way to think about it. The next question comes from Ewan Mano with Darren Kelly. Please go ahead.

38:34 Yes. Good morning, Matt, Greg and the broader team, and congratulations on the record result. I just want to focus on YUGO. Given how strong economics and early performance appears to be, can you just remind us how do you actually evaluate sites for conversions? And what do you think the total size of the opportunity set could be on a longer term basis? Yeah. Thanks, Ewan. It's Greg here. So we are really pleased with the way you guys are performing is the first thing I'd note. I think we've spoken earlier about the potential of this and the one year kind of payback of the economics that surround that. We're certainly seeing economics that are that or more favorable. It got a bit of a tailwind, as you can imagine, when fuel prices were higher, consumers were very price sensitive.

39:21 So a well positioned and fully stocked YUGO performed well when other supply chains were struggling. We slated 60 under our own network. We see EG producing at least 125 additional sites. So that's a network of one eighty five. That'll take about two years to deliver, and that was our commitment over that two year time frame. I have to say, when we look at YUGO, we're probably more look at EG, I should say, now that we've had ownership of it for six or seven weeks. We're probably thinking that Yugo number will creep up over time, but, of course, our commitment was around a two year time horizon. So to answer your question directly, it was a 185.

40:08 You guys is where we expected to be post the integration of NG two year in two years' time. I'd like to see if Kate, anything you wanna build on that? From the Ugo point of view? We're really happy with the progress of Ugo. Selection comes down to a site by site decision where we're confident that we have got the opportunity to remove operational costs and provide a a value offer to customers. Yes. But, Ewan, so think of it as labor labor out, net of store margin, foregone, tends to be a a positive, and then we would then expect fuel growth from a, you know, a a more aggressive pricing position. That's clear. Thanks, guys. And then secondly, a lot of media articles recently as enforcement activity on illicit tobacco has stepped up across service station networks.

41:03 Are you seeing any benefits from this? And do you have a view on whether tobacco can actually be sustainably removed from the independent networks? Yeah. We've certainly seen, and as we mentioned in our comments, tobacco not only stabilised but move it back into growth on the back of some stronger enforcement action, and I think also some disruption, frankly, from The Middle East in terms of supply chains. But in certain states in particular, we've seen the enforcement be quite effective. And so that is certainly playing through the numbers in the first half and certainly more recently over the recent probably two or three months, we've seen quite a marked adjustment.

41:50 The next question comes from Tom Allen with UBS. Congratulations also on record earnings over the half. Just as the market interprets the potential upside for Ampol from the same pricing in global oil and product prices and particularly how it might support Ampol's balance sheet and just provide the stronger outcomes on your capital framework. Was wondering if you could just guide a range of where you expect Ampol's leverage might finish the year, perhaps with a sensitivity for us if current product prices do hold at elevated levels through October. Yeah. That's that's walking into a challenge for me there, Tom. What what I would say as a steer is well, a couple of things to note.

42:35 We're sitting on a reasonable amount of inventory, both price and volume at the half. Depending on what happens over the next six months with fuel availability, you would expect that to unwind over time. So I'm not talking specifically with year end in mind. And you would expect generally positive cash generation in the second half that should further improve our leverage ratio below the 1.8 turns, notwithstanding the dividends. So that'll be the first here I'd give you. I think when you then cast forward to 2027, what we've always had in mind and guide us is in a mid cycle basis, we would expect leverage to be back within our targeted range of two to two and a half, and we'd be laying in these laying somewhere in the middle. Now that's a mid cycle range. That implies average refining margins, and and with the charts you've seen on slide 30, I think it is, or, yeah, slide 30 that Matt talked to, yeah, the market is signaling that it's likely to be quite a bit stronger than that.

43:46 From a sensitivity perspective, every 1 US dollar of refining margin uplifts per annum on average is $60,000,000, and we don't have any major maintenance plan for 2027. So all that drops to the bottom line. And, of course, we're coming to the end of our low sulfur fuels project, so you should see CapEx start to set back down towards that sort of $450,000,000 sustainable level. So it does all set up for a very strong cash generation over the next eighteen months. And as I said in my comments, if we you know, when we find ourselves in that position, our track record is pretty clear. Thanks, Greg. Appreciate that. That's clear.

44:36 Perhaps this is we interpret whether or not there's a basic set of conservatism on the balance sheet, just if there is the potential for high CapEx in the medium term. I thought I was interested in your comment in the presentation that you thought the market might have missed the outcome of the new Phase one support level under the FSSP, and that turns on when the buying margins averaged $15.90 a barrel in Australian dollar terms. I could see consensus estimates are not far above that level at the moment in 2018 and beyond. So I wonder if you could comment perhaps on the time frame and key milestones, potential outcomes for the industry in Ampol that might come from the fuel security and resilience package that the Commonwealth government is currently consulting on. How Ampol might participate in additional fuel storage going forth, potential funding mechanisms for that, and even if there were potential for more investment in an expansion at lithium, and what it might look like?

45:28 So maybe I'll make a couple of comments to kick us off. So there's a couple of points in there. So the revision to the existing FSSP, think, was a little bit overlooked. And I think it is just because within a couple of weeks, the whole events in Iran started to unfold. But that is something in the order of a 3.6 centiliter step up in where the entry point is into that mechanism. It also included a revision to the calculation of the marker itself that improved in a further point 6%. So it's a point six and one cent. So it's a 4.2 cent uplift in what the minimum is, which I think is a, you know, as the graph shows in the presentation, is a really healthy increase in the level of support. Now when when we now roll into FSSP two, I wanna get into the specifics of that engagement, and the government has put some consultation papers out there on fuel security more broadly.

46:34 But you can imagine the things on our mind the tenor of that arrangement. The arrangement at the moment is to 2030. I think by any, analysis, you would say demand for, middle distance in particular is gonna go well out into the 20 forties at strength. So you're interested in the tender of that agreement. You're interested in what you can achieve, from in the events that you have a reliability event, some sort of issue at the refinery. You know, obviously, peers have had a had a difficult time at their refinery recently. You know, you wanna make sure you're there's a level of protection on that basis. And, ultimately, make refining, as investable as possible in the knowledge that its strategic importance, to the country has risen.

47:27 But, naturally, the nature of equity markets, you know, and the value for predictable ratable earnings increases as well, and that we wanna bridge that gap as best we can. So that's the focus, and the government are well aware of our views on these things. We're having very constructive dialogue, and I dare say, you know, our competitors are likely or the other refinery in Australia, I should say, is likely very aligned around similar sort of drivers. And just on the storage point, Tom, so the government has released its its consultation paper for for storage last week. So I think there's an absolute commitment to to build out more MSO and establish a national fuel reserve.

48:19 I think, you know, probably obvious, but those large storage locations where you can get product in efficiently, where you can get it to market, where you can sort of cycle it, commingle it, and then get it to market efficiently is gonna be the way to get that in place most efficiently, most quickly. So I think Ampol's infrastructure is really well positioned from that point of view, and we'll continue to engage with the government through that consultation process. The next question comes from Craig Wulford with MST Marquee. Please go ahead. Good morning, Matt and Greg. Just wanted to get a feel like with the way you position the F and I benefits from the situation.

49:06 How do you see that going forward, not just for this six month period, but to see the business has been positioned for volatility in both directions. You know, how would you how should we judge the earnings base for that F and I international in a in a low volatile oil price environment. Yeah. So I think I mean, Greg covered it in his in his presentation that we've built a capability that I think is significant strategic capability that has a demonstrable track record now of managing risk and downside exposure and being able to position to capitalise on market opportunities when markets are disrupted and are tight.

49:55 The second point though is equally important, which is when we look at markets and inventory levels and the context in refined product markets at the moment, It looks pretty tight and the curve is pricing that. So we've got the capability and we continue to build on it. It's been built over a long period of time and we've got pretty tight markets now given this has played out for a while, drawn down stocks and has every has every prospect of continuing to drag out. So that's how I'd I'd frame it. But we've got Brent here. So, I might just ask you for any any observations on that question. Yeah. I'll add just a little bit. Obviously, the role in managing inside the market means you need to be able to operate in whether it's a strong market or weak market.

50:44 I think if you look globally at how profits are driven, you normally see outsized profits when there is a a sudden shock and step up in markets. However, our ability as a business is is one to manage all markets. And as, the presentation today says, focusing on, efficient delivery and management to supply our customers, is is our goal. But across all cycles, we should be able to perform, but different markets do present larger opportunities than than like, each circumstance is different, I guess. Alright. Thank you. Second one, just on the convenience statement, it's a year that tobacco markets might be stabilizing.

51:31 We often get into the detail of the gross margin ex tobacco. And I have calculated it might have been down slightly. Maybe just a a broader question on that. Is the convenience gross margin percentage, the shop gross margin percentage likely to be stable from here? Or do you see upside, maybe it's associated with Yugo or any other mix effects? Thanks, Craig. Kate? Yep. Margin is broadly flat. We've seen some benefits from mix improvement. We've seen some slight detraction with wastage, which is just reflective of the bakery range that we have invested in some stores. I think over time, we'll see our performance in margin continue.

52:16 We have seen full benefit of net cash flow through, but obviously, over time, there'll be benefits that we can realize in energy as well. The only other thing I'd build on that, Craig, is sort of and in the outlook. In terms of how we've started the second half and the performance in the shop, not just from a margin point of view, but really in terms of mix and sales ex tobacco, put the tobacco trend to one side. We're actually seeing some really encouraging trends in the store in terms of those higher margin categories, which is consistently the execution and and the strategy the teams had in place and continues to progress very well. The next question comes from Mark Wiseman with Macquarie Group. Congratulations on the results today and making the most of the market.

53:07 I just wanted to ask a couple of questions. Firstly, on the EV charging network. Could you just perhaps unpack that point of breakeven? Are you thinking about shop sales that those customers engaging in while their vehicle is charging as part of that? Or when you talk about breakeven, are you simply talking, you know, EBITDA on the charging itself? And could you just clarify the SNI Energy Solutions EBITDA, so the negative 12.7, is that the line item that you're referring to? Is that what we're expecting to move into positive territory? Thanks. Yeah. Thanks, Mark. It's Greg. So there's a couple of bits to that. But we definitely see upside on Ampol sites from charging over time.

53:59 That 12 time drives more custom in store. But when we're talking about breakeven exiting 2028, we're really looking at that from an energy sold perspective, so just charging. Remembering, of course, our network and the potential here for EV charging extends well beyond our own convenience retail network, and we have a, relationships with a number of the big retail property businesses and the like. So that's the guts of the question. And yes, that is the line we're talking about. Do that is our Australian EV charging business. It includes some wholesale energy management. You know, we have PPA arrangements and things like that, but we source power for the group through there as well.

54:46 There's a modest benefit from that. But, essentially, what we're referring to is that is the result that you are looking at, which is an EBIT loss of around $15,000,000 for the half. Okay. Great. And just a a bigger picture question on capital allocation. You know, as a team, you've really proven yourselves as, you know, among the strongest capital allocators in the sector. I wonder if we could just unpack the next phase of growth for the company. It it it sounds like having done Zedd, having done the rebrand, having done AG Group, there's really and and the the compliance CapEx on fuel. It sounds like there's actually not that much out there in terms of calls on capital.

55:33 Is there a world, do you think, post FSSP phase two, where your leverage metrics and payout metrics need to adjust? Do you think we're heading into a period where you can run a little bit more debt and and a higher payout? Yeah. Thanks, Mark. It's Greg again. Look, I'm probably not of the mind yet to consider changing our targeted leverage range. I think it's just pretty well and we are, as we've seen in the last couple of years, entering slightly more volatile periods. I think that creates really significant opportunities for us, and this result exemplifies that. But what I would say is if we can secure the FSSP two in a in a way that, removes some of the downside risk associated with that asset that is that may be a a catalyst. It was, last time with the introduction of those FSSP.

56:31 I think, you know, our range with Moody's set up about point two of a turn from memory, because we we increase the stability of that asset. So there that that could be a catalyst. But I think you're under underlying or overarching points, the right one. You know, we're coming through, know, in the middle of a significant acquisition and integration now. I think we've signaled, you know, we're positively disposed to electric vehicle charging over time. We'll see what comes out of the the policy and consultation on on storage. That could certainly lend itself to, incremental investment. But having said all that, this business, in an environment where refining margins are higher and and your trading business is well positioned to capitalize on some of these dislocated markets and product flows, we should be a very cash generative business.

57:26 And I think our track record is there to say that if we're tipping back below the range, that and that that looks sustainable, and we're not sitting on a, you know, an attractive investment opportunity, then that tends to find its way back to shareholders pretty quickly. The next question comes from Rob Ko with MS. Please go ahead. Good morning. Yes, congratulations on the result. Can I ask a question about the proposed divestment of 41 or so sites to Metro? Is there any update on the status of that buyer? And is there an alternative that could be lined up? Yeah. Thanks, Rob. It's Greg again.

58:13 Look, we we are in the early phases of that process. We've obviously got a buyer who has been approved by the competition commission. They were we had a deeper pool than that, naturally at the time. We have some conditions precedent to work through, and our expectation is that that divestment process will conclude towards the end of this end of this year. You know, if for some reason, if we were an issue, then then we would adapt, but I'm not expecting that. Okay. Good to hear. Thank you. And then may I ask, within the F and I Australia result, obviously, there's a there's a benefit from terms supply, in there. Are you able to give us any kind of extra color on quantum of that and help us adjust for current period?

59:08 That's a trickier one to do without sort of diving into the specifics. But we we we typically go into a half about 50% term is what we try to do across our cargos across different products. It it really does vary a bit year to year depending on market conditions. But, you know, really what you're seeing play out in that result is a few things. One, we gained some share because there were less resilient supply chains out there. That is, in part because of investments we've made. We have term customer base as well as term supply, and where we could, meet the market, for those that were more reliant on sort of traded and spot volumes, we did.

59:58 And we have deep relationships with suppliers who stood behind their obligations in large part because of the hard work of the our team in in Singapore, who've got, you know, a decade or so of long term relationships. But beyond that, I wouldn't get it's hard for me to get into, but it's a combination of those factors that drive the outsized result in the period. And I think you've seen a fair degree of consistency prior to the conflict in that part of the business. So that's the delta is driven by a combination of those factors, and we're going well supplied into the second half. Your next question comes from Adam Martin with EMP. Please go ahead.

1:00:43 Good morning, Matt, Greg, team. Nice results. Just just quick question with EG Group. Can we get a trading update on how that business is going the last six months or so, please? Yes. So it's it's performed okay. I would say it's performed in line with our expectations. It's it's a business that has, in our view, priced higher than necessarily the the quality of the proposition in market and the ceded share as a result. And I think you can see that in our, that's reflected in our strategy, which is, you know, we believe there's an opportunity to both upgrade and deliver a more consistent proposition through Ampol Foodery.

1:01:29 And those those smaller sites, which are often retail car park sites that have a very small retail store footprint, they they are often high, fuel volume sites and tend to be low Ampol card sites, they can be a really attractive proposition, to Yugo. But that business is has been unsurprising in the last six months, probably benefited a little bit from our supplier arrangements into that business, which, would have been to F and I's detriment. But I you know, we look through those things and look at it on an integrated basis going forward. And you're still comfortable on the mean, you talked about high single digit EPS, double digit free cash, decreasing the time of the year. I think you changed the wording slightly. I don't know if that's me looking into it too much or still happy with that. Probably by accident, Adam, to be honest. It's our view has not has not changed, and we are very confident the combination of that business with ours will be better will be better for it, and we stand behind the metrics we put forward at the time of the deal.

1:02:39 The next question comes from Gordon Ramsay with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Thank you very much, and great results, John and ladies. Slide 23, Greg, you've highlighted $148,000,000 of additional inventory from EFA. What is the outlook for the relationship with Export Finance Australia and for Ampol's supported inventory volumes by them? And does this involve Ampol taking on any risk? Yes, thanks Gordon. So your last point first, no, under the arrangement we effectively act, if you like, as a for one of a better term, a buying agent. We source the product hold hold it and that's and that's important because you want it to flow to customers quickly when when asked by the government to to release that inventory. You want it close to your infrastructure so it can it can reach market.

1:03:38 We're not taking price risk on that product. The relationship has been good with AFA, I think, and and with the department. Think, you know, putting politics aside, they certainly, responded quickly when, events started to unfold, and we're in regular dialogue, with them. And I think they're you know, they they would I would describe them as standing ready to go, if the need if the need arises. And it's always a trade off of, you know, easy to have physical supply constraint, or is it, when things tighten, are you getting fuel and it just getting more expensive, to land that product in Australia? But, they they seem, ready to go, if required, and, there's a couple of us have a reasonably frequent dialogue with a number of the government departments to just keep them abreast of what's happening with regional fuel supply and flows.

1:04:40 Thank you. And a question from Matt. Do you have a view on the preliminary proposal to build another refinery in Australia versus adding more product storage capacity? Thanks, Gordon. Look, I think it's fair to say our efforts and focus with government is clearly, and I would agree, the two remaining refineries are absolutely critical. They need to be investable for the long term. And so getting FSSP two locked away to ensure that is where the absolute focus is. So I wouldn't comment on the specifics of of the other announcement, but that's where our focus is, and I think that's absolutely critical alongside the the efforts on storage.

1:05:31 Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. Your next question comes from Scott Ryle with Rimmer Equity Research. Please go ahead. Oh, thanks very much. Matt, I'd like to continue on with the comments that you've just made there. I was wondering, you've given a little bit of color through the, the presentation on phase two of the discussions as to timeline and and all of that. But I'm wondering if you could get a bit more specific. Do you expect resolution this calendar year? Is that what you're saying? And is that and what what do you actually think investable means from from your perspective, please? Yeah. Sure. So that's certainly what we're aiming for is an outcome or at least a clear understanding of the direction of travel to be then implemented probably through next year. But, yes, achieving that by the end of this year. I think what it means is when you step back from where we are, I think there's clear alignment that the refineries are going to be required for the longer term.

1:06:39 That means we need to be investing over a longer horizon, and that means we need to have confidence in in returns to be able to do that. And so it's that may sound simple. There are different ways you can achieve that, but I think there's good alignment on that being the context that we're trying to we're trying to solve for. And, you know, I think that means there needs to be more downside protection beyond the margin protection. And Greg, I think, alluded to this in his comments that we need to make them investable to have those confidence in returns over the longer over the longer term. So that's what we're aiming for. I can't be more specific than that at this stage, but I I would say there is very good alignment on that's what we're trying to solve for here.

1:07:29 Okay. Great. And then, excuse me, my second question is just on slide 15, sorry, which is hugely helpful in terms of looking at the F and I international history and some of the factors behind more limited earnings in 2425. In your prepared remarks, Matt, you commented on on the likelihood of longer term disruption, and maybe it's not as severe as the first half was, but you're you're clearly looking and and setting the business, in place for disruption that goes beyond this calendar year. I I don't wanna put words in your mouth. So is that is what you're saying with this chart that when there is periods of disruption, that's when the F and I international business has an opportunity to earn. So you're thinking about the the fact that higher levels of earnings than what we saw in '24 and '25 are sustainable into the medium term for this business?

1:08:35 Yeah. I think, you know, I think we're trying to convey a message that is Ampol's capability, has been built up over quite a long period of time, is quite distinctive in our sector and certainly in our market. It manages risk and has very tight settings around risk management, which means it protects us against any material downside. And I think the chart on 15 demonstrates that where there are well supplied markets is the terminology, There'll there'll be some money to be made at a at a baseline level, and and Brent alluded to that. But when markets are tight, those conditions are absolutely suited to that business being able to make money. And this is the money just to or the profit, just to be clear, that's over and above that relating to the barrels that go into Australia and New Zealand, our core markets, and that core supply focus is what Brent and the team focus on. But when markets are tight and those charts on slide 43, I think it was for product inventories indicate things are tight. That's what the market's pricing and the geopolitical volatility is certainly ongoing, as we can all see, on now very, very tight product inventory levels.

1:10:02 We went into this at the start of the year in terms of crude and product inventories with plenty of stock. As this continues to go longer, both in The Middle East and in Russia, you can see that product stocks have gone down to to tight levels. That is hard to rebuild quickly. And so you've got tighter markets, and, they are good conditions for our trading business. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Matt Halliday for closing remarks. Thanks very much for joining the call. Obviously, a really strong result for Ampol as a result of, I think, capability and investment that's been made in the business over a long period of time. And I think the business now is really well set strategically to continue to build on that platform as Fred mentioned.

1:10:55 Thanks for joining. Look forward to talking to you all soon.