Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALPEK/A) Q2 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 Hi, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Alpek and your participation in this webcast to review our second quarter results. I'm Alejandra Bustamante, IR director. Here with me today are Jorge Young, our CEO, and Rodrigo Prieto, our CFO. Before we begin, please note today's discussion will include forward looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially. Alpek undertakes no obligation to update these statements. We express our financial results in U. S. Dollars unless otherwise specified. For your convenience, this webcast is being recorded and will be available in the Investor Center section of our website.

0:52 Today's agenda is as follows. Jorge will begin with a quarterly overview. Next, Rodrigo will discuss our financial performance in greater detail. Then Jorge will delve into outlook for the remainder of the year and revise guidance figures. And finally, following management's remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. Jorge, I'll turn the call over to you.

1:19 Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Throughout the quarter, the Middle East conflict continued to impact global supply, leading to trade disruptions. This resulted in higher reference margins and ocean freight costs. While these industry conditions supported results, Alpek's performance was further enhanced by its operational readiness. Notably, our business units were able to resolve all raw material supply challenges while growing and diversifying our customer base in key markets. Alpek's year to date performance also validates the successful execution of our multi year strategy to strengthen our competitiveness and financial position.

2:10 Through a more optimized asset base and disciplined capital allocation, we were well positioned to deliver significant comparable EBITDA growth and cash flow generation. I would like to take a moment to recognize and thank our employees across Alpek for their dedication and commitment. Their hard work and focus on execution were instrumental to our results. On behalf of the leadership team, thank you for your continued contributions and to our success. Moving forward, we're entering the second half of the year with a stronger and more resilient operating and financial position, allowing us to confidently navigate evolving macro, geopolitical and industry landscapes.

3:02 Accordingly, we're raising our 2026 EBITDA guidance, which I will come back to discuss in more detail after the financial results segment. With that, I will now turn the call over to Rodrigo.

3:19 Hi, everyone. It's a pleasure to be with you today. Over the past quarter, I've had the opportunity to connect with many of you, and I look forward to continuing those conversations and getting to meet more of you in the future. Let's take a closer look at our financial performance. Reference margins increased throughout the quarter across our portfolio, particularly Chinese integrated PET margins peaking in May at $336 per ton. Ocean freight rates to South America also increased sequentially throughout the quarter, reaching a high of $347 per ton in June. Alpek effectually translated this into solid results, maintaining a clear focus on cash generation and improving the balance sheet.

4:16 We generated 127,000,000 in operating free cash flow supported by higher EBITDA and a strategic capital allocation. This includes a $211,000,000 investment in networking capital from improved volume and a higher pricing environment. This performance reflects our ability to reliably convert earnings into cash, achieving a 31% conversion rate during the period. CapEx totaled $19,000,000 including a $10,000,000 recovery from the Vigor Valley Asset Sale. We further strengthened our balance sheet by reducing net debt by $103,000,000 and improved our leverage ratio to 2.2 times, accelerating our deleveraging path ahead of schedule.

5:15 Turning into earnings, comparable EBITDA increased 169% year over year, reaching $336,000,000 and reported EBITDA totaled $4.00 7,000,000, a 300% improvement compared to the same period last year. This included a 66,000,000 inventory gain associated with higher raw material prices. Volume for the quarter also improved, reaching 1,180,000 tons, increasing 6% quarter on quarter and 5% year over year, As solid operating performance and strong demand was supported by customer diversification.

6:03 Both business segments delivered their strongest quarterly results since 2022. Polyester achieved comparable EBITDA of $235,000,000, while plastics and chemicals delivered comparable EBITDA of 95,000,000. While this performance represents an important milestone, we remain committed to preserving financial strength and sustaining leverage within our target range of two to 2.5 times. I'll turn the call back to Jorge to discuss guidance and outlook for the remainder of the year.

6:48 Given the current geopolitical environment, market volatility is expected in the near term. For our updated guidance, we consider that underlying overcapacity continues in the petrochemicals and polymers industries. Accordingly, our revised figures assume that disruption subside throughout the second half and that reference margins and ocean freights declined when compared to the second quarter, but still remain elevated relative to our original guidance at the beginning of the year. We're raising our guidance to reflect the stronger first half performance and the following key assumptions for the remaining of the year.

7:36 Average Chinese PET reference margins ranging from 170 to $200 per ton. As a reference, second quarter's average was $30.07 And as of today, July is averaging $215 per ton. Polypropylene reference margins at $0.17 per pound compared to an average of $0.20 per pound in the previous quarter. And such level remains so far in July. Ocean freight rates to South America ranging from 120 to $170 per ton. The average for the second quarter was $225 and is currently at $268 per ton.

8:27 Based on these assumptions, we are raising our comparable EBITDA to a range between $750,000,000 and $800,000,000 Our operating free cash flow to a range between 300,000,000 and $350,000,000

8:43 And we're also adjusting our CapEx to 150,000,000 to advance our three year polypropylene project and smaller investments in PET sheet and thermoforming in our Middle East region. Our guidance reflects our current outlook and does not include any potential upside from the monetization of non strategic assets, which we expect to advance throughout the year No impact or additional tariff measures in our key markets. Notwithstanding and considering the most recent geopolitical environment, margins and freight costs could remain elevated, especially if feedstocks restrictions reemerge.

9:31 In all scenarios, it is Alpek's priority to remain focused on operational excellence and to be attentive to our supply chains to anticipate and minimize risks. Moreover, we will preserve balance sheet strength and maintain disciplined capital allocation, working to keep the leverage ratio within our target range of two to 2.5 times with the goal of remaining closer to the lower end. With this in mind, at the moment, we do not expect to resume dividend payments in 2026. This approach will ensure we maintain financial flexibility and position the company to navigate the cyclical nature of the petrochemical industry while creating long term shareholder value.

10:24 Notwithstanding, we will constantly evaluate these decisions as results are delivered and new information arise. Let me close by recapping our priorities for the remainder of 2026.

10:40 Maintain operational efficiency across our global footprint to support customer demand as trade and supply dynamics continue to evolve. Enhance portfolio quality by advancing higher value and specialty solutions to further diversify our businesses. Develop emerging businesses prioritizing high return opportunities requiring minimal capital investments to support long term growth and

11:13 protect cash flow generation through optimized working capital and CapEx management, in addition to advancing asset monetization initiatives to further enhance financial flexibility. Overall, we enter the second half of twenty twenty six with stronger fundamentals, building on the strong momentum we have established. I am very confident in our team's ability to deliver solid operating performance by staying proactive and agile when responding to industry changes. Through this, we're aiming to position Alpek as a domestic supplier of choice by staying close to our customers and maintaining service excellence.

12:01 We will now begin the Q and A portion of today's webcast. To ask a question live, please use the raise hand feature. We will call on participants in the order they appear. And remember, you may also submit your questions through a Q and A function at any time. We will do our best to address as many questions as possible. Our first question comes from Daso with UBS. Daso, please go ahead. Hi, Ali. Hi, Jorge. Hi, Rodrigo. Thanks for taking my questions here. I have two on my side. One, probably for Jorge. We have seen pet spreads way more resilient when compared to all your petrochemicals. Could you provide some additional color on how you were seeing the market and key risks for a stronger normalization in the second half of this year? Or maybe on the other side, opportunities that such spreads will be persistent at these levels throughout not only this year, but also

12:58 in 2027? And then Jorge, a second question following this first one,

13:05 it's actually linked to the leverage ratio from the company. It already reached 2.2 times net debt to EBITDA in the second Q. But do you assume that Alpek would take a little bit longer to decide on the resumption of dividends in case spreads reduce and leverage, of course, moves back higher. How is the capital allocation discussion within the company at this moment and following all of this discussion? Those are the two questions. Thank you. Thank you for the questions, Taz. So, yes, on PAT margins, as you saw, second quarter Chinese PET margins reached close or around $300 per tonne. They were very strong in March, April, May.

13:52 There were some declines through June and July. And now they're approaching the higher end of the range we showed in our revised guidance to the second half.

14:04 What we're yet to see is whether the most recent escalation in oil prices translates into a rebound of PET margins. That's yet to be seen. I think it will depend on whether the latest events translate into additional supply disruptions. So that is yet to be seen. In our assumptions, and as I explained in my prepared remarks, we still observe there is underlying overcapacity, and we're assuming the spreads will glide down. However, given the also observing some events, we expect spreads potentially to stay somewhat higher to the levels we saw last year, especially that were very low.

15:04 So again, these are variables that we cannot forecast in great detail, but that is something that we think is very possible in the industry. Again, the peak was so far is second quarter of twenty twenty six. It's normal to expect some normalization to that level, but there are possibilities for the margins not to reach as levels that as low as last year. Again, we're yet to see how industry evolves. To the extent there are disruptions in supply that could be conducive to higher margins. In our regions,

15:52 this volatility certainly supports the case of domestic suppliers. We are the largest domestic supplier in The Americas of PET resin. We are the largest domestic supplier, the only domestic supplier of polypropylene in Mexico, the largest domestic supplier of EPS throughout The Americas. So we expect that volatile environment where risks are observed by customers

16:21 in trade flows that supports our case. And it is our duty to confirm and earn the trust for the customers by delivering product on time with quality and competitively. So again, I see this as a opportunity for us to come stronger in following periods. To your second question, as far as the capital allocation, I think I mean, you you pretty much answered the question yourself. We need to monitor how our results are delivered. We need to factor

17:02 again scenarios where the margins could come down, where the margins could stay elevated. And based on all that information, we will make that decision accordingly in due time. Right now, we think we will end the year without further dividend payments. But as I also explained in my prepared remarks, we still have six months more to go and we will observe how we deliver results and new information

17:32 and more importantly, our outlook and forecast for next year. It's still early for us to to have a forecast for next year. Again, just rehashing, we will plan for a range of scenarios, scenarios where we need to remain very competitive. Our focus is to operational excellence so that we build and reinforce our position as a strong and the preferred domestic supplier for customers. We don't take their business for granted and we need to prove it and earn it. Again, that's the view. So we will remain flexible on the decision. We will focus on what we can control. And if we deliver the result and if the perspective is reasonable, that's when those are the conditions to discuss the dividend resumption.

18:24 And right now we need to see these results to materialize for longer.

18:32 And that is where we are. This is a decision we will review together with our Board of Directors in due time. Very clear, Jorge. Thank you for the clear answer. Our next question comes from Leo Marcondes with Bank of America. Leo, please go ahead.

18:53 Hola, Jorge, Rodrigo, and Nale. Thank you for for picking my questions. I have two from my end here. So the first one is if you guys could provide a bit more color on how the increase in U. S. Tariffs and or the news flows on The U. S. MCA could impact ALPK?

19:15 And my second question is regarding the supply capacity, right? I mean, the resumption of the war, how have you guys been seeing the impacts on supply capacity? And

19:29 how are you seeing the inventory levels for PET and PP right now? Thank you very much. Yeah, Leo, thanks for the questions. The first part of your question was about tariffs. There are several things going on in the various countries, but I will focus on the one you mentioned. In The United States, there are ongoing investigations on tariffs on multiple products. I think we're yet to see the results of those investigations.

20:16 Partial results have been trickling down already on the investigation relating unfair labor. There is no conclusion yet on that one, but that one will probably maintain the current status quo that we have seen for the last several months where there is an underlying tariff in The United States of about 10%

20:44 across many countries. Again, but we are within days of knowing the final outcome. There is another investigation relating excessive industrial capacity,

20:58 which the results are going to be out probably in the next couple of months. We're yet to see that. At the end, these investigations look to have fair trade conditions for producers of many products in The United States. In The United States, there is still strong competition in the market from local competitors. So it's early

21:30 to ask to forecast exactly how we see the impact. I think we are waiting for the outcome. And again, we are expecting that these tariffs address some of the distortions in the markets and bring a fair level play field for producers of PET and many other industries. And again, it's our focus to remain very competitive and focus on our operational excellence to shine in markets, in all kinds of markets. So again, on tariffs, we're still waiting for the outcome on tariffs in The U. S.

22:15 And as far as USMCA,

22:18 the USMCA, for now, it was not renewed in July, Everybody was expecting that. I think we expect there will be one year period revisions. In the chemical industry, there is a strong trade surplus that The United States has with Mexico because all the feedstocks that are used in Mexico. We don't think it's a critical sector from that regard. Most of

22:52 petrochemicals in Mexico are produced with U. S. Feedstocks that are fully compliant with the USMCA requirements and will be fully compliant with rules of origin. So we expect continuity from

23:12 USMCA. But again, it's a process that all of us will be observing and we remain close to government officials on both sides to make sure we understand how it's evolving and that points of view regarding specific topics in our industry or that the facts are accurate. The second point, the resumption of war. It's really hard to say what are the inventory levels. When the war broke down in early March, there was an increase in prices and in spreads throughout March.

23:58 I think in several industries, several petrochemical and polymers, there was probably an overreaction in March, April on purchases, expanded margins and volume significantly. Now there is another genuine disruption taking place. But we're yet to see the margins and the volumes to rebound. We're beginning to see some signs. It's very possible to see a rebound, but it's not observed yet. And it's probably a combination of markets in general, in some countries in Asia remaining cautious learning from the lessons in April of accumulating excessive inventories.

24:52 So those inventories might be now normalizing and there has to be another round of purchases that could definitely support margins if these disruptions extend. So again, we are very eager to see this to evolve. Certainly this brings some potential upsides. But again, we're yet to see those rebounds and some doubts. So that's the situation Leo. We are still working on observing the markets. Course, that's very clear. Thank you, guys. Next question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

25:40 Ben, please proceed with your question. Our next question comes from Vanessa Quiroga with Eternal Capital. Hello. Sorry, Ben, are you there? Yeah, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. No, no worries. Go ahead. My question is I have two questions and they're both on the cadence of the guidance update and in particular with PET. The first question is, can you tell us what the spot contract split was in Q2 and what are the underlying assumptions for the same question for Q3 and Q4? And my second question is on the contract volume, how much was repriced during the quarter? How much is still yet to be repriced? And is there a risk if everything were to go back to normal today that they could be repriced again? Thank you.

26:44 Yes Ben thanks for the questions. Very good questions. In the second quarter we significantly increased our sales in the spot market. We had as we mentioned, we felt we had good operational readiness to begin the second quarter or system of plans in general have been running well or inventory were on target. So that was key for us to capture opportunities on customers or supply got disrupted. So our percentage of spot sales definitely increased in the second quarter and that was a huge contributor to our additional profitability.

27:39 We are working very hard to make some of those relationships more contract type and more sustained as we work not only through the balance of the year but also looking forward. And for us to continue to operate well and deliver good products on time and competitively to these customers definitely enhances that opportunity. On the contract side, there were also some increases in volumes and to an important extent there was some repricing. And again, that repricing was mostly designed to offset as much as possible additional costs that we had to incur to secure our feedstocks in the second quarter.

28:34 Our feedstocks were also disrupted. We had feedstocks coming from The Middle East that got disrupted. We had to go to alternative markets. And with volatility also in shipping costs for liquids, we incur excessive costs. And that was the basis for us to another inputs that increased Not only feedstocks and that was the basis for us to have very positive discussions with our contract customer base to offset those increases. The we're very appreciative of our customers were very supportive across the board with the vast majority of them supporting the pass through for the additional cost.

29:23 And that was also very important for us to deliver and supply well in the second quarter. How those conditions will evolve in the second half? I think we're still having discussions. Think in there is some trend to ease some of those costs, but now we need to process the the additional disruption in The Middle East. Right now it's becoming very visible in oil. And as for the last few days, there is a new variable, which is the the disruptions potentially on on the Red Sea. And again, we need to see how those disruptions will create changes in how the especially the ocean freights or the availability of carriers for both feedstocks and finished products are happening in the marketplace.

30:24 But summarizing, there was an increase in spot sales. We're working very hard to expect not to see those as spot sales, but more than anything as a stronger, larger and more diversified customer base. And there was also repricing on the contracts with tremendous support from our customers to offset the additional expenses incurred in securing our raw material. But we were able to secure 100% or supply of raw materials with significant challenges. But we are in a very good spot and right now our supply chains are looking good.

31:10 Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Vanezakiroga with Eternal Capital. Vanezakiroga, please go ahead. Yes. Hi, thank you. So just to clarify, my question was very similar to the previous one, just to clarify on the dynamics. So on the spot side, you were able to increase spot sales because of the increase in demand and difficulty to get imported product, I assume. And on the contracted side, clients, your customers were willing to accept the pass through of the increase in feedstocks.

31:56 Just confirm if my understanding is correct. And then how are you seeing that current conversations for upcoming contracts? And do you expect to convert some of those, but sales into contracts? Do you expect any change in the structure of that contracts given these ongoing geopolitical risks and sourcing feedstock sourcing risks? Thanks. Yes. When it's I think pretty much yes to to all your points that you listed. It was a good a good recap. Certainly, spot sales not only represented additional volume, but also those came at very attractive margins given the reference margins, ocean freights and the supply demand dynamics.

32:54 So those were important contributors. But also we had increasing volumes in our contract customers and also support to pass through the additional cost. It is early to you know, we we we are we are yet or we're just beginning discussions for for the the next period, 2027. Relatively few things have been in into contracts by now or that we have finished. The vast majority will happen in late later this quarter and probably even more in during the fourth quarter. Yes.

33:39 I mean, we'll we'll, you know, we'll try that or or agreements reflect, you know, You know, provide some flexibility to deal with unexpected events. But again, I think we we focus on on reinforcing and building the trust with the customers that or or, you know, or value as domestic supplier is delivered, you know, throughout the year and and make them feel that with those they have secure supply, competitive supply, reliable and of good quality and broad offering of products. And we think that's going to be the basis to have a good contract renewal season this year.

34:27 But we are a few months from that. We just think the the the volatility and supply disruptions are conducive to to those domestic suppliers that do their job well to earn continuous business with this customer base. How was your mix of spot versus contract volumes this quarter? You know, in in second quarter, you know, normally in our business, when you add all the Alpek's businesses, normally 80% contract, and it varies by business. In the second quarter, we probably added maybe 10 percentage points.

35:17 Were running well the plans, but we still had room to to increase rates. And, you know, we added, you know, maybe in total, I would say at least 10% increase in the mix of spot customers. Many of those are continuing as we speak. Second quarter was is typically the best in terms of seasonality. And there was also a number of purchases that we're aiming to increase pipelines for some customers. We might not see all of that in the second half as expected, but all all of that is embedded in our in our guidance guidance figures. And just a final one. Are the the this increase in spot sales volumes, were they new customers or the ongoing spot customers that you have?

36:15 Both. We have many new names, and and we have many current customers both that typically buy spot and contract. We were able to satisfy additional volume requirements. But it was all kinds. Again, we are ending with a larger but also more diversified customer base, which it is healthy for any business in general. For sure. Thank you. You're welcome. Our next question comes from Thiago Casqueda with Morgan Stanley. Thiago, please go ahead with your question. Hey, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I think most of them were already addressed here. So I have one on working capital.

37:03 We saw that there was a significant pressure on working capital during this quarter. Obviously, it was largely due to higher raw material prices. And I know it's quite tricky point of discussion, especially with the volatility picking up again. Brent already surpassing $100 per barrel today. But I would like to understand what are your current expectations on working capital. Should we expect a strong relief already in the third quarter? Or this is something that takes longer? And then my second question is on asset sales. I would like to know if you could provide the evolution of discussions around asset sales expected for this year? And I know the Monterrey asset sale is more of a longer term goal, but are there any updates on that front also? Thank you.

38:01 Hi, Thank you for the question. With regards to net working capital, yes, it is kind of a tricky question how things are evolving these last days based on crude going to 100. But what we have in the in the updated guidance provided, we do have a small recovery on net working capital. We will see how prices evolve, but we remain very focused on having a very optimal net working capital for second half of the year. With regards to the asset sale, we divided into three phases.

38:47 Phase one is what we've been working and communicating these last quarters. As we reported, we already did the river valley asset sale. We continue very diligently working on those issues. And the idea is to get to the 30 to 50,000,000 of sales this year. Right? Then we have a phase two, which are another assets in in The US, Mexico and Brazil that that will will come after phase one. And then definitely we have the phase three, which is the Monterrey asset will that will take a little bit more time. That's very clear. Thank you.

39:37 Our next question comes from Alejandro Lavin with Santander Asset Management. Alex, please proceed with your question. Hi, thank you for taking my question. Congrats on the results, everyone. So I have a question on volumes, right? So clearly you're doing very well so far this year and obviously you raised the guidance, high prices, good contracts, good spot prices and so on. But my question is like going forward, how can you take full advantage of this upcycle, especially focusing on volumes, right? I mean, you did manage to increase volumes 5%, but what happened if prices reverted fully back to, I guess, normal levels across the board?

40:25 What would volume growth look like? And what sort of strategic actions can you take in the meantime to sort of secure more balanced growth going forward? Thank you. Yes, Alejandro, that's certainly we're fully aligned with, you know, with the goal of of, you know, growing our volume and increasing the the the the quality of that volume. You know, it it it is all, you know, with the foundation of being a reliable supplier to this to our customer base. Our volume for the vast majority or relevant volumes that we supply locally in each country or region where we have our assets.

41:23 For example, in our key markets, are some level of imports that we can still replace. And we did actually in 2026. And again, it's a great opportunity for us to to keep that continuity. And if the spreads come down, again, I think we have a great opportunity in front of us to to even with spreads coming down to retain the volume. And again, in this process, we were also able to increase the mix of what we sell. We increase the sale of polymers. We'll reduce the sales of intermediates because there is more margins doing the whole chain.

42:15 Again, it's a very high priority, but it's all all rests on running well and delivering well to the customers. I mean, I'm just fully aligned with that's that's very important, and we have a great opportunity in front of us to, you know, to to retain this expanded customer base that we have with us now. Okay. Understood. So maybe low single digit growth is a normal base case for steady state long run growth in volumes, I guess? Yes, it is possible. But we we did have a very good utilization rate and volumes in the second quarter itself.

43:03 So I think maintaining that volume, yes, year over year, we will expect to have some growth going into next year. But if you look at the quarter, second quarter is a year where it almost reflects not totally full but our asset base very highly utilized. And if that situation, if that opportunity continues at those levels we will seek ways to debottleneck our system or to relocate production from less strategic or less attractive markets to the most profitable markets or system has some points of flexibility to still capitalize on the opportunity.

43:56 Okay, understood. Congrats and thank you again. Thank you. Next question comes from the Q and A function, Rahul Bhatt from ninety one. Please proceed with your question. Oh, sorry. It's here we have it with us. What is the company's plan with the free cash flow generation this year? Any plan to repay or refinance near term debt, including the 2029 bonds? Thank you, Raul, for your question. We're maintaining a discipline to generate the cash flow. It is very important for us to convert this EBITDA to cash flow. Absolutely, the idea is to use this cash flow to reduce and repay some debt.

44:48 With that, we are evaluating refinancing facilities and with both proceeds, we plan to significantly improve our debt profile. It seems like that was our last question on behalf of Alpek. Thank you for your participation and continued interest. Please contact us if you have any additional questions. Have a great day.