Forestar Group IncNYSE: FOR

Q4 FY 2026 Investor Presentation

· Issued by Forestar Group Inc

Summary by 6ix AI

Forestar Group Inc., a residential lot developer for the affordably priced single-family home market, reported net income of $59.2 million, or $1.15 per diluted share, on revenues of $580.8 million from 5,004 lots sold for its fiscal fourth quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared with 4,891 lots sold a year earlier.

Key details

  • Fourth-quarter pre-tax income was $78.6 million, with a pre-tax profit margin of 13.5%. Forestar owned and controlled 84,400 lots at September 30, 2026, of which 58,200 were owned and 26,200 were controlled through purchase contracts.
  • For the fiscal year ended September 30, 2026, revenues were $1.6 billion on 13,545 residential lots delivered, pre-tax income was $192.1 million and net income was $142.6 million, or $2.78 per diluted share.
  • At September 30, 2026, total liquidity was approximately $1.3 billion and net debt to capital (debt minus unrestricted cash, as a share of equity plus that net debt) was 6.7%. Book value per share was $37.56, compared with $34.78 a year earlier. No senior note maturities fall before fiscal 2028.
  • For fiscal 2027, Forestar expects 12,000 to 13,000 residential lot sales, consolidated total revenue of $1.4 to $1.5 billion and about $1.3 billion of total investment in land and land development.
  • D.R. Horton owned 62% of Forestar as of September 30, 2026.

What’s still pending

  • The fiscal 2027 outlook is based on current market conditions as noted on the company's fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 conference call on October 29, 2026.

6ix AI wrote this summary from the release below and checked it against the release.

Investor Presentation

Q4 | 2026

Forestar Group Inc. ("Forestar" or "FOR") is a highly differentiated, pure-play, residential lot developer for the affordably-priced single-family home market

RETURNS FOCUSED

Track record of solid operational results

Operations in 65 markets across 24 states(1)

PRUDENT Fully-entitled projects with short durations

DISCIPLINED

Investing capital across a diverse, national footprint which mitigates risk

STRATEGIC

Strong relationship with D.R. Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder

model

EFFICIENT Capturing market share while maintaining a low overhead

LEADERSHIP

STRONG LIQUIDITY

Balance sheet provides financial and operational flexibility

FOR markets / states

/

Proven management team with significant land development experience

  1. As of September 30, 2026

    3

    • Earnings per diluted share of $1.15 on net income attributable to Forestar of $59.2 million

    • Pre-tax income of $78.6 million, with a pre-tax profit margin of 13.5%

    • Revenues of $580.8 million on 5,004 lots sold

    • Owned and controlled 84,400 lots at September 30, 2026

    • Return on equity of 7.8% for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2026

    • Net debt to capital(1) of 6.7%, with total liquidity of $1.3 billion

      Total Liquidity

      $1.0 billion

      36%

      $1.3 billion

      Q4 FY 2025 Q4 FY 2026

      Residential Lots Sold

      2%

      4,891 5,004

      Q4 FY 2025 Q4 FY 2026

      Book Value Per Share

      $34.78

      $37.56

      8%

      Q4 FY 2025 Q4 FY 2026

      Note: All comparisons are to the prior year quarter

      (1) Net debt to total capital consists of debt net of unrestricted cash divided by stockholders' equity plus debt net of unrestricted cash

      4

      Solid Operational Execution Focus on Efficiency Maintaining Financial Flexibility
      • Revenues of $1.6 billion

      • Delivered 13,545 residential lots

      • Pre-tax income of $192.1 million, with a pre-tax profit margin of 11.7%

      • Net income attributable to Forestar of $142.6 million or $2.78 per diluted share

      • SG&A was 9.2% of revenues

      • $4.0 million of revenue per employee

      • Approximately $1.3 billion of liquidity

      • No senior note maturities until fiscal 2028

      • Net debt to capital of 6.7%

        Planning for the Future
      • Invested $1.3 billion in land acquisition and development

      • Maintained our diverse national footprint operating in 65 markets across 24 states

As of or for the fiscal year ended 9/30/26. All comparisons are to the prior year.

5

Forestar is focused on a disciplined approach to creating long-term value

FY 2027 GUIDANCE

12,000 - 13,000

Residential Lot Sales

$1.4 - $1.5 billion

Consolidated Total Revenue

∼$1.3 billion

Total Investment in Land and Land Development

FY 2027 Priorities

  • Balance pace and level of investment in-line with market conditions

  • Disciplined capital allocation while continuing to position Forestar for future growth

  • Expand market share within existing markets

  • Grow book value per share

  • Maintain strong balance sheet

  • Evaluate opportunistic M&A opportunities

    Note: Expectations are based on current market conditions as noted on the Company's Q4 FY 2026 conference call on 10/29/26. 6

    8

    Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity Position

    1 Unique Return-Focused Lot

    Manufacturing Business Model

    2

    Strategic Relationship With D.R. Horton

    7

    Proven Management Team With Decades of Real Estate Experience

    3

    Long-Term Market Share Gains

    6

    Homebuilders Preference to Buy Finished Lots

    5

    Intense Focus on Risk Mitigation

    4

    Geographically Diversified Lot Position

    7

    MANUFACTURING APPROACH TO LAND DEVELOPMENT

    Forestar has built a unique lot manufacturing model that enables it to be a dependable supplier of lots to homebuilders, while producing solid risk-adjusted returns

    Short duration, fully-entitled lot development projects

    - asset turnover is fundamental to the business strategy

    Large scale with national footprint and in-market depth - Forestar has more than 200 active projects across 65 markets and 24 states

    Returns-focused, with strict underwriting criteria - all projects must have >15% return on average inventory(1) and return the entire phase 1 investment (including all land costs) in 36 months or less

    Predictable operating results with strong profitability - pre-tax profit margin of 11.7% for FY 2026

    Strong liquidity and access to debt and equity capital - Forestar's capital structure is a key competitive advantage

    (1) Return on average inventory is calculated as pre-tax income divided by average inventory over the life of a project

    8

    HIGHLY STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT WITH DHI
    • Long-term consistent supplier of finished lots across DHI's national footprint (130 markets in 38 states)

    • Integral component of DHI's operational strategy

    • Participate in value creation of FOR

BENEFITS TO DHI

  • Supports Forestar's national platform

  • Significant built-in demand for lots

  • Improved access to capital markets

  • Shared Services from DHI

BENEFITS TO FOR

SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP Alignment with the nation's largest builder provides support and stability in changing economic conditions
  • Most land developers lack the scale and access to capital to be consistent suppliers of lots to DHI across its national footprint

  • DHI is committed to owning no more than a 2-year supply of lots, while increasing its mix of controlled lots in inventory

  • D.R. Horton has a strong appetite for finished lots that continues even during potential market downturns

    • During the worst years of the last significant housing downturn, D.R. Horton closed ~17,000 to 20,000 homes annually, the majority of which were built on finished lots purchased from 3rd parties

  • Master Supply, Stockholder and Shared Services Agreements formalize the business relationship and protect FOR's interests(1)

  • DHI plans to maintain a significant ownership position in FOR over the long-term(2)

Relationship with DHI further strengthens FOR's competitive advantage

DHI's interests are aligned with FOR shareholders to ensure the profitable expansion of FOR's platform

  1. Stockholder's Agreement and Shared Services Agreement summaries included in Appendix

  2. D.R. Horton owns 62% of Forestar as of September 30, 2026 9

MASTER SUPPLY AGREEMENT

The Master Supply Agreement formalizes the business relationship with DHI as both companies identify real estate opportunities and protects FOR's interests via the Right of First Offer process

A Right of First Offer (ROFO) is very different than a Right of First Refusal (ROFR)

  • A ROFO agreement helps establish a fair market price/terms, whereas a ROFR is advantageous to the buyer by providing a "last look"

  • The ROFO provides DHI the "first look" on available lots at market terms set by Forestar

  • If FOR and DHI fail to agree on terms, FOR can offer the lots to other customers at similar terms offered to DHI

Lots Sourced by DHI

1

FOR must offer 100% of the lots sourced by DHI to DHI at current market terms

2

Lots Sourced by FOR

FOR must offer 50% of the lots in the first phase to DHI and 50% of the lots in any subsequent phase if DHI purchases at least 25% of the lots in the previous phase at current market terms

3

Lots Sourced by Third Parties

FOR offers the lots to the respective customer on third-party sourced development opportunities and is not contractually obligated to offer DHI the "first look"

Note: The Master Supply Agreement continues until the earlier of (i) the date which DHI owns less than 15% of voting shares of FOR or (ii) June 29, 2037; however, FOR may terminate the MSA at any time

when DHI owns less than 25% of the voting stock of Forestar 10

DHI TRACK RECORD PROVIDES ROADMAP TO FOR

DHI's 30-year public track record provides a blueprint to FOR to achieve its own growth, consolidation and market share gains

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

-

Total New U.S. Single-Family Houses Sold ('000s) DHI's Homes Closed as a Percentage of New U.S. Single-Family Houses Sold Represents FOR's Lots Sold as a Percentage of New U.S. Single-Family Houses Sold

14%

13%

12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

-%

Source: Company filings, Census

Note: Periods represent full calendar year 11

Then and Now: FOR Today vs. 2018

Since D.R. Horton's investment in Forestar in late-2017, Forestar has significantly expanded its operations

Investment

Operational Platform

Operating Results

84,400

20,100

4x

Owned and Controlled Lots

2018 2026

$2,531

$498

5x

Real Estate

2018 2026

$ in millions

Market Count

24

2.5x

65

2018 2026

Employee Count

40

10x

408

2018 2026

TTM Lots Sold

1,279

CAGR 34%

10.5x

13,545

2018 2026

TTM Revenue

CAGR

$109 40%

15x

$1,635

2018 2026

12

INTERMEDIATE TERM GROWTH GOALS

Forestar has a visible path to capturing 5% market share within the highly-fragmented U.S. single-family residential lot development industry*

Annual Lot Deliveries

5.0%

>2.0x FOR's

current size

2.1%

0.7%

FY 2019 Market Share

FY 2025 Market Share

Current Target

*5% market share goal based on approximately 650,000 annual U.S. fee simple single-family homes started

13

DIVERSIFIED NATIONAL FOOTPRINT 65 MARKETS | 24 STATES

Portfolio of 84,400 lots as of September 30, 2026

/ FOR markets / states

DHI states where FOR does not currently operate

Of total lot position at 9/30/26, 58,200 are owned and 26,200 are controlled through purchase contracts

14

INTENSE FOCUS ON RISK MITIGATION

Strategic

Operational

Financial

Strict underwriting requiring minimum 15% return on average inventory and return of the entire phase 1 investment (including all land costs) in 36 months or less

Diverse, national footprint lowers operational risks and mitigates the effects of local and regional economic cycles

Strong strategic relationship with D.R. Horton, the nation's largest volume homebuilder

Governance documents that formalize relationship with D.R. Horton and protect Forestar

Significant local knowledge and expertise

Primarily focused on developing lots for homes at affordable price points (the largest segment of the new home market)

Buy fully entitled, short duration projects with phased development, which is largely discretionary

Experienced leadership team

Robust analytical process to determine best capital allocation across markets

Demonstrated ability to manage spend and build liquidity during slower periods

Maintain a strong balance sheet and liquidity position including managing to a

≤40% net debt to capital ratio

Unsecured Company-level debt allows for operational flexibility

Earnest money deposits on sales contracts

15

UNIQUELY POSITIONED TO PROVIDE FINISHED LOTS

Builders' preference for 'land lighter' models enhances opportunity, and in times of economic uncertainty, many homebuilders shift their land strategies to slow raw land purchases and focus on purchasing finished lots

Optioned Land/Lot Position as a

% of Total Owned & Controlled

Number of Years of Owned Land Based on TTM Closings

76%

66%

61%

50%

2.8

1.9

2.2

1.5

DHI - HB segment Average Public HB

6/30/20 6/30/26

DHI - HB segment Average Public HB

6/30/20 6/30/26

Source: FactSet and respective Company SEC filings

16

Notes: Average Public Homebuilder (HB) data represents the land and lot positions of LEN, PHM, TOL, NVR, MTH, MHO and KBH For LEN and KBH, data is as of the periods ended 5/31

For TOL, data is as of the periods ended 7/31

CONSTRAINED LOT SUPPLY
  • Availability of lots is improving from historic lows; calendar 2Q 2026 lot supply indicated at the low-end of the "appropriately supplied" range

  • New home construction has been constrained by the availability of lots in certain markets

  • 13 of 30 major markets are categorized as significantly undersupplied

    Zonda New Home Lot Supply Index

    90

    80

    70

    60

    50

    40

    6/30/18

    12/31/18

    6/30/19

    12/31/19

    6/30/20

    12/31/20

    6/30/21

    12/31/21

    6/30/22

    12/31/22

    6/30/23

    12/31/23

    6/30/24

    6/30/25

    6/30/26

    30

    125> - Significantly Oversupplied 115-125 Slightly Oversupplied 85-115 - Appropriately Supplied 75-85 - Slightly Undersupplied

    <75 - Significantly Undersupplied

    85.2

    12/31/24

    12/31/25

    Source: Zonda

    Note: The lot supply index values represent single-family vacant developed lot supply, lots that are ready to be built on, relative to equilibrium 17

    PROJECT-LEVEL LAND DEVELOPMENT FINANCING SNAPSHOT
    • According to the NAHB's Survey on Acquisition, Development & Construction Financing, land development loan availability continues to be expensive and hard to secure

    • Forestar's lower cost of financing is a key competitive advantage over typical land developers

      Effective Interest Rate of Financing NAHB AD&C Financing Survey Index

      12.7%

      12.9%

      12.6%

      11.8%

      9.6%

      12.2%

      10.9%

      10.0%

      10.4%

      8.2%

      6.0%

      6.1%

      4.6%

      4.6%

      4.6%

      Land Development Land Acquisition FOR Weighted Average 15.0%

      10.0%

      5.0%

      6/30/22 6/30/23 6/30/24 6/30/25 6/30/26

      60

      conditions easing

      conditions tightening

      50

      40

      30

      20

      10

      - (10)

      (20)

      (30)

      (40)

      (50)

      (60)

      6/30/16 6/30/18 6/30/20 6/30/22 6/30/24 6/30/26

      Source: NAHB. The NAHB AD&C Financing Survey Index is derived from the share of respondents who rated the availability of new loans for land acquisition, land development and single-family construction.

      The share of respondents who selected "worse" is subtracted from the share selecting "better" for each series, and the results are then averaged. 18

      LAND AND DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS
  • Investing in new projects while maintaining a disciplined and conservative approach to underwriting

  • Phased development intends to deliver finished lots at a pace that matches market demand, consistent with FOR's focus on capital efficiency and returns

  • Expect to invest approximately $1.3 billion in land acquisition and development in fiscal 2027 with the majority of investment targeted for land development

    As of the Fiscal Year Ended As of the Quarter Ended

    Land Acquisition Land Development

    $977

    $199

    $270

$595

$570

$1,035

$1,046

$1,148

$777

$1,616 $1,743

$1,305 $1,300

$347

Land Acquisition Land Development

$110

$305

$233

$243

$253

$284

$415

$279 $312 $299

$63

$46 $59 $55

$ in millions

FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027E

9/30/25 12/31/26 3/31/26 6/30/26 9/30/26

19

Note: Expectations are based on current market conditions as noted on the Company's Q4 FY 2026 conference call on 10/29/26

LOT POSITION
  • Owned and controlled lot position supports future growth and market share gains; targeting a 3- to 4-year owned inventory of lots

  • Consistent with Forestar's focus on capital efficiency, its land and lot supply that is controlled via purchase contracts remains robust

  • Balance sheet and liquidity will be used to invest in opportunistic land purchases

90,100

Owned & Controlled Lot Position

Owned Lots Controlled Lots

58,200

65,100

57,800

52,400

61,800

26,800

26,200

28,300

37,300

34,700

95,100 99,800

79,200

84,400

61,800

Owned Lot Position by Source

FOR Sourced Lots Builder Sourced Lots

65,100

32,800

31,700

33,800

36,100

37,900

20,700

22,100

25,000

28,000

27,200

52,400 57,800 58,200

9/30/22 9/30/23 9/30/24 9/30/25 9/30/26

9/30/22 9/30/23 9/30/24 9/30/25 9/30/26

20

Attention: This is an excerpt of the original content. To continue reading it, access the original document here.

Forestar Group Inc on 6ix

Earlier from Forestar

All Forestar news releases