Yara International (Oslo:YAR) Q3 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 Hello and welcome to JARA's third quarter results presentation. The presentation today will be held by JARA CEO Svein Tore Holsether and CFO Magnus Krogh Ankarstrand. Once the presentation is done, we will move straight into the Q&A session. If you wish to listen only to this, you may remain in this window. To ask questions, please press the link under the window to enter the team's meeting after the presentation is done. But first, let's start the presentation. It's my pleasure to hand over to our CEO, Svein Tore Holsether.

0:37 Thank you, Maria, and good morning, good afternoon, good evening, depending on where you're calling in from. And thank you for joining our third quarter earnings call. As always, I will begin with our safety performance. Our 12-month rolling total recordable injury rate stands at 1.2, as we had a stable development through the third quarter. We have made significant progress over time, but colleagues are still being injured at work. And I take this very seriously. Safe by choice remains the foundation of our safety work. Thank you very much. Original price differences persisted while overall nitrogen prices increased compared with a year ago. However, this was more than offset by higher European gas costs, which pushed European ammonia

2:08 margins into negative territory towards the end of the quarter. We have used our ammonia flexibility to curtail production accordingly, as I will return to later on in the presentation. In Europe, Yara increased deliveries, particularly of nitrous, despite a year-on-year decline in industry deliveries, demonstrating strong commercial performance. At the same time, slow demand across most key markets, particularly for MPKs in Latin America, resulted in a negative volume impact of 40 million US dollars in the quarter.

2:55 Production volumes were also affected by some plant-specific reliability issues. Increasing output is significant. Central to our improvement program, we're making reliability and tight cost control clear priorities. Purchasing for the 2027 season is lagging in Europe and in the US and Brazil, leaving significant volume still to be bought as the Northern Hemisphere application season approaches. In this environment, we remain focused on what we can influence directly, including accelerating delivery of our EBTA improvement program. In parallel, the Gulf Coast ammonia acquisition will further diversify our gas exposure upon closing.

3:48 Turning to the EBTA development, we delivered 650 Thank you very much. segments that were partly offset by higher nitrate volumes in Europe. We also have some third-quarter spillover from the turnarounds at Pilbara and Belle Plaine.

4:36 MPK premiums improved compared with the second quarter, but remained under pressure year on year as is typically the case in periods of rising commodity prices. Fixed costs were up 4 million US dollars year on year, excluding currency effects. Had cost developed in line with inflation, the impact would have been negative 18 million US dollars. We therefore beat inflation by 14 million US dollars in the quarter, demonstrating continued cost discipline. Our improvement program remains on track with the $60 million US dollars delivered so far in 2026, and Magnus will provide more detail later on in the presentation.

5:25 Together, the cost program completed in 2025 and the $60 million US dollars year-to-date EBITDA improvements have contributed to approximately 1.5 percentage points to This demonstrates stronger underlying profitability over the past 12 months. Our focus is to strengthen returns further through improved operational performance and continued capital discipline. Natural markets continue to be shaped by volatility and uncertainty. And as I noted in the second walker presentation, the Disruption in the Middle East came at the very end of the previous season.

6:11 While weak crop prices and poor farmer affordability reduced some Northern Hemisphere demand, most of the demand implications came for the new season by starting in May. Prices increased gradually during the quarter, although development in China and India continued to weigh on the market balance. As we now approach year-end, the Chinese export window is closing, and there was limited interest in the latest Indian tender. At the same time, the Northern Hemisphere still has significant purchasing ahead of them, while supply uncertainty persists due to reduced exports through the Strait of Hormuz and production curtailments in Europe.

7:03 Yara has demonstrated its ability to navigate this volatility by optimizing across the system and prioritizing profitable production. Our global business model and diversified product portfolio strengthens Yara's resilience in volatile markets, including periods of high European gas prices, approximately 80% of Jara's finished goods portfolio is not directly exposed to TTF reflecting both our production outside Europe and the flexibility to source ammonia for our European nitrate production. The remaining 20% include industrial urea and upgraded fertilizer urea products with sulfur.

7:57 So both technically command a higher Svein Tore Holsether, We have been focused on increasing the flexibility and the resilience of our system. We have a High raw material flexibility, but we also run our plants on a lower technical minimum than prior to the energy crisis in Europe that started in 2021. In addition, we have closed ammonia production both in tank and in hull and continue to work on reducing our logistical costs and increasing optimization within our system.

9:27 This makes us more robust in the face of the ongoing volatility. Let me then bring us back to our central priority, strengthening returns. As highlighted earlier, our 12-month return on invested capital stands at 13.5%, and we remain focused on further improving the underlying performance of the business. Thank you very much. Thank you very much.

10:55 And over time, broader gas diversification and sustained focus on our core operations will further strengthen JARA's competitiveness and returns. And with that, I will now hand over to Magnus Krogh Ankarstrand.

11:17 Thank you, Svein Tore Holsether.

11:19 As mentioned, Q3 EBTA stands at 675 million USD compared to 804 million USD in Q3 2025.

11:29 In addition, sale of EUAs contributed another 22 million USD.

11:34 This translates into 95 cents per share, down from 1.33 USD per share last year, but a year-to-year date EPS of 4.26 USD per share, An increase of 31% compared to 2025. Return on invested capital stands at 13.5% for the last 12 months versus 8% at the same time last year. However, please note that this number also includes the sale of EUAs with a cash effect of 153 million US dollars in Q2 and 22 million US dollars in Q3. Looking towards the cash side, the build-up of operating capital was lower than Q3 last year, and inventories reduced in the quarter.

12:20 This led to an increase in cash from operations, and combined with a flat development in capex, this leaves us with a free cash flow on par with last year. Looking to volumes, we see a mixed picture. As mentioned in July, European buying slowly started picking up after a very slow start to the new season in May. This is gradually picked up further, with nitrogen deliveries ahead of last year and a strong order book. NPK deliveries have been slower in the quarter, particularly in Latin America. With higher nitrogen prices but unstable demand in local markets, our sale of third-party products reduced in the quarter, but with limited margin impact. And finally, we see that industrial volumes are down.

13:05 This is mainly related to hibernation of assets as a part of our portfolio plan. Asset productivity is a key priority for Yara. However, the quarter was impacted by lower production outputs. Part of this is related to a higher turnaround schedule for 2026, as previously announced. For ammonia, part of the reduction is due to curtailment of European ammonia plants to replace production with imports as upgrading margins from gas to ammonia were negative. But year-to-date, we have also been impacted by reliability issues, although focused around specific incidents with major impacts. The outage in Pilbara ammonia last quarter as well as the outage in Floyd scale nitrate productions are the main contributors to this.

13:50 In addition, we have experienced issues with sulfuric acid in our finish system. Other plants significantly exceeded last year's production numbers in line with our improvement program. Rectifying the reliability issues is a top priority for our production system going forward. As reported, Increasing gas costs for the quarter more than outweighed the increase in prices, putting downward pressure on margins compared to a year ago. Premiums have held up well, even though the higher commodity price level in the third quarter, as well as in the second quarter, put some pressure on NPK premiums. This led to a negative delta when comparing premiums in Q3 last year, particularly in Asia.

14:35 Low crop prices also had an impact on premium levels, and have since improved for most crops through the third quarter, which is positive for premium levels. Looking through the market, we see that Jares nitrogen deliveries in our core European markets increased 4% compared to last year. At the same time, the market contracted by between 5-10% in the same period, a rough estimation at this stage. As mentioned earlier, our order book intake in Europe increased significantly through the quarter. This indicates a European market returning to a more normal buying pattern as season approaches, despite a very slow start to the new season in Q2. And as you may recall, Q4 last year was impacted by significant market purchases ahead of CBAM implementation. This year, CBAM is still a factor, but nitrogen markets nevertheless seem to be significantly behind.

15:32 The deferred demand picture displays across most regions. In March 2026, the crisis in the Middle East led to an immediate 20% reduction of available urea and phosphate supplies to global markets. To meet this reduction, demand had to be destroyed, and price increases saw to that. Even though there was demand reduction in the season, this happened after most of the Northern Hemisphere season was bought, and further demand destruction happened in other regions or in the shape of delayed buying for the next seasons. And looking at nitrogen imports to core markets, this effect becomes very visible. European imports for the next season are down 30% compared to last year, which also was a low quarter compared to history.

16:17 Brazil imports of urea as well as ammonium sulfate are down as well. And meanwhile, the crisis in the Middle East remains unresolved, meaning that we are now moving into the first season in the Northern Hemisphere to be fully impacted by the 20% supply outage. So far, second half has also been impacted by India and China, which reduced Indian demand and increased Chinese export quotas. And it's interesting to see that even with the last increase in Chinese exports, the India tender did not find much support a few weeks ago. And urea prices in North Africa and Europe are firmly back above $500 per tonne. With grain prices above last spring and the Chinese export window closing, it will be interesting to see what urea prices are required to balance the market in Q1 and Q2 next year.

17:11 At the Capital Markets Day in January, we announced EBITDA improvement targets. We aim to achieve a US$200 million EBITDA uplift by the end of 2027 and an additional US$150 million by the end of 2030. The program is currently progressing according to plan in most areas. The majority of the contribution comes from cost and portfolio reduction measures, as well as realized gains in new products launched in our system. Logistic optimization effects are also materializing, with increased scale in ammonia sourcing as the largest contributor. The production system is a key contributor to the targets. In terms of planned debottlenecking and increases, we are progressing well. However, the overall realization Thank you very much.

17:56 Thank you. Coming from a time before Freeport, when less than 15% of our gas purchases were in North America, our portfolio will now be close to 40% exposed to Henry Hub or the Canadian gas reference. Of the remaining European TTF exposure, half of the exposure is linked to nitrate production, where locally produced ammonia can be replaced by imports.

18:44 The Gold Coast Ammonia Acquisition also adds considerable length to our internal balance between equity-owned production and consumption, which allows even greater flexibility on further portfolio adjustments. This opens for adjusting the relative energy exposure further in favor of low-cost production. Moving towards capital allocation, JAR maintains its policy after the Gold Coast Ammonia Acquisition. Our overarching target is always to maximize returns for our shareholders through return on domestic capital, focusing both on growth capex as well as sustaining capex. Delivering on our improvement program is the first priority in achieving that, and as previously mentioned, the DCA acquisition will expand our EBIT margins by significantly lowering our cost position.

19:32 Beyond that, ERA will maintain our strict capital discipline, focusing on reprioritizing sustaining capex towards the highest return assets, and ensuring realization of benefits from executed growth investments. Post-closing of the acquisition, it will be a priority to maintain a strong balance sheet, ensuring that we have the capability for high-quality investment opportunities at the right timing, while maintaining attractive shareholder distributions. And with that, I give the word back to St. Louis.

20:09 Thank you, Magnus. Looking beyond the corker, I finally want to highlight the robustness of FIARA's business model, despite the ongoing market volatility. As a nitrogen company, we are obviously highly impacted by nitrogen prices, but as we also see from our historic results, we are less impacted by the spread between TTF and UEM. Our fixed cost reductions have increased its robustness further, and after the closing of the Gulf Coast ammonia acquisition, our earnings quality will improve further.

20:56 While we improve our cost position, our premium product portfolio is a significant stabilizing factor. Although NPK and nitrogen margins contract somewhat when prices are high, as Thank you very much. Thank you. To conclude, our commitment to sustainable value creation and increased shareholder returns remains firm. We are a strong starting point in our global production and market presence, supported by an asset base that would be difficult and costly to replicate.

21:56 Realizing its full potential requires safe, reliable operations and a strong culture of operational excellence. Our underlying EBITDA improvements to targets remain $200 million by 2027 and $350 million by 2030. The Gulf Coast ammonia acquisition provides a clear pathway to further energy diversification and value-accretive ammonia capacity expansion. We remain committed to a strong balance sheet and a mid-investment grade Our objective is to increase total shareholder returns and deliver consistent distributions with additional upside through the cycle.

22:48 And with that, I will now hand back to Maria. Thank you Svein Tore. That concludes today's presentation. We will now take a minute or two to prepare for the Q&A session. We will reverse shortly. Thank you for watching. Hello?

24:19 Welcome back to everyone. We are now ready to start the Q&A session. This is Maria speaking and I'm sitting here together with Yara Management. For those that only want to listen to the Q&A, you can remain in the webcast page. If you wish to ask questions, you need to join the Teams meeting by pressing the link underneath the webcast window. Once you are in the Teams meeting, please raise your hand if you wish to ask a question. If you are joining by phone, Please press star followed by five to raise your hand, and when it's your turn, press star followed by six to unmute. When it's your turn to ask a question, I will introduce you, and you will be asked to unmute. Please state your name and which company you are from. So with that, we are ready to take the first question, which is from John Campbell.

25:04 Please unmute and go ahead.

25:08 Yeah, hi everyone, it's John Campbell with Bank of America. I wanted to ask you on your sort of forward guidance of gas prices. So if I remember properly, that's kind of a volume neutral assumption. So I think you're guiding something like $450 million higher gas costs, I think in Q4 and roughly similar for Q1. You know, you've articulated in this presentation that you're going to be doing curtailment. So I'd be interested perhaps could you kind of give a different figure to maybe guide us a bit more precisely on the outlook for Q4 and Q1 gas costs on a maybe non-volume neutral basis. Thank

25:53 you. Yeah, no, thank you for the question. As you rightly put it, it's volume neutral. I think we also say in our presentation that we have the ability to curtail up to 1 million ton of our European ammonia production per year. And obviously, as long as the spread between TTS and ammonia prices is negative, we will curtail as much ammonia as we can. So you can assume that from and obviously I mean our ammonia production is where our gas consumption sits as well. I suggest you model it by adding a volume assumption in the volume bracket, right? Which is then basically the ammonia margin or the negative ammonia margin that we're awaiting by curtailing ammonia in Europe.

26:48 I think that's the best way to model it. So if you take the Thank you very much. If I look at current prices and take your sensitivities, I think that implies 200 million positive

27:19 Price impacting Q4, but I don't know if that accounts for the pass-through of gas costs that you have in some of the industrial year stuff. So, volume neutral, if you have 450 million negative gas, is the right number 200 million positive pricing, or is there some more offset than that? That's question one. And then, question two, could you talk a little bit more about the slow-scale production issues, how big they've been, whether they're ongoing? And maybe if I could squeeze in question three. You're talking about 150,000 tons of curtailment in Q3, rising to 270,000 today. Could you maybe give some more detail on the plants that are closed down and maybe help us decide the volume impact that you're expecting Q4 in the bridge?

28:08 Thanks. Can I just ask a terrifying question? You mentioned $200 million. Was that if you update the price sensitivities?

28:18 Yeah, just the price line rather than the price and gas. So just price, as I see them today, applied to the sensitivities. Yeah, so it's back to the question that we answered, John, as well, right? You need to adjust for the ammonia margin or the positive impact of not being exposed to a negative ammonia margin when we curtail. And there are also some positive effects as we are able to uphold margins in industrial deliveries, but the That's a positive offset of part of the negative cash cost impact.

28:53 And as for the production issues, so for the quarter there was a limited impact on results as such from the production side, some sort of remaining impact from Pilbara, but obviously production issues or Loss production over time of course will reflect in somewhat lower volumes, as we obviously don't have those to sell. Specifically the issues in skrøyskilj were earlier this year in nitrate production, and currently skrøyskilj is running as normal on finished fertilizer production.

29:40 And for the last question on curtailment in ammonia, which plants that is, it's across several plants, like both Prinsbytter, Lohavr and Sløyskild typically have excess ammonia, and then what is needed for their integrated urea production, and that's typically the first volumes we curtail when ammonia margins are negative, but they could also be serving other plants that still have positive margins for different reasons, but those are the ones that are included in that, and Ferrara, of course, but that's both integrated and non-integrated ammonia.

30:12 Thank you very much. Thank you. Alex Sloan, please go ahead.

30:21 Hi, thanks for taking the questions. The first one will be on nitrogen market outlook. You mentioned in the prepared remarks grain prices above last spring. It would be interesting to see what urea prices are required to balance the market in Q1 and Q2 of next year. Do you have a A base case that you could share with us on that, be interested, that would be the first one. And the second one, just on self-help, so you've delivered around 60 million of the 200 million target. Can you help us think about phasing from here and through the rest of 27, what are the biggest building blocks that are left to hit that target? Thanks.

31:09 On your first question, of course, we cannot share an exact number for where we think this will balance, but what we observe is that we've now had some months of very strong negative impacts in the market of reduced Indian buying and stronger Chinese exports. It's just interesting just to look at the September numbers as an example. where India imported 1.1 million tons less and China exported 1.1 million tons more both compared to September last year so a combined supply addition for the rest of the world of 2.2 million tons in a month and that compares to let's say full blast out of the Arab Gulf is only 1.5 million tons a month so it's interesting also for us to observe that prices actually increase through September in a market that was actually quite well supplied.

32:11 So we see that as a very interesting backdrop for a situation where, as Magnus pointed to and also Svein Tore, that we have seen kind of, we haven't seen position taking, let's say, in European markets, in Latin American markets, in North American markets during this period. There is a lot of demand that remains. So if we get now into a situation where these India and China effects are let's say sunk costs or history and you have the continued supply disruptions out of Arab Gulf combined with the curtailments in Europe what we were kind of alluding to then is that we are very curious to see exactly how this Urea balance will And for your second question, we don't have sort of a

33:31 Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Let's move to Masahir Mahmadi. Please unmute and ask your question.

34:33 Great. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is regarding the older book. Looking at the older book chart that you provided, would it be fair to assume that Q4 volumes in Europe will be substantially up year on year? And could you give some more color and my second question is on GCA in terms of the P&L impact and the impact of lower weighted average feedstock costs when should we start seeing the first P&L impact and by when will it be fully ramped up? Thank you

35:17 Yeah, to your first question, we don't guide on volumes, so we can't share any predictions for Q4 as such, other than the general market perception that we see right now, which is that buying in the Northern Hemisphere is significantly delayed compared to what's normal. In the season, and also with strengthening crop prices, there's no reason to think that you would see a dramatic reduction in Northern Hemisphere demand as it stands now. But beyond that, we can comment specifically on volumes, and of course, sometimes it shifts a bit between the quarters as well, given how the season is.

36:11 As for the order book and the order book chart, what that points out is where it stood towards the end of the existing quarter, but it's not indicating what our order book looks like for the next quarter. In terms of Gulf Coast ammonia, the P&L effect will start when the acquisition is closed, so the acquisition is Pending Normal Regulatory Approval We are hopeful that we will see that in Q4 and then of course from the day we close the transaction it will be a part of our accounts as well. The plant is currently in a turnaround that's known in the market. It is not yet commercially complete and the contractor is Thank you.

37:26 Thank you. We're moving to Christian Veit. Please ask your question. Yes.

37:31 Yes. Thanks. Good afternoon. Two questions, please, from my side. First of all, in your view, is wheat fertilizer purchase in January deferred demand or are farmers reducing nutrient applications in your view? And do you see that changing in 27? Second question. How much of the winter gas cost increase can you offset, and what is the residual earnings exposure, i.e., how much of that winter gas cost increase can be recovered through fertilizer pricing, avoided through imported ammonia, or mitigated through production retainments? Thanks very much.

38:14 On your first question, Christian, we think that in 2026, the season we have, let's say, behind us, there was considerable demand rationing that actually happened in most private markets, just in order to balance the market. That includes in Europe, where we see that total nitrogen supply for the 2025-2026 season was down roughly 10%. Svein Tore Holsether, So if you think about 2027 with improved affordability ratios for nitrogen in particular, you would actually logically expect an increase in demand and not a further rationing. So that's also one of the elements for why we are curious ourselves to how this season is going to play out.

39:31 Particularly because nitrogen prices are much lower now than they were in March-April at that time in the season, but also because crop prices, although they have corrected some now in October, are way better than what they were half a year ago. We also hear from our markets that that sentiment is better than half a year ago, to put it that way.

40:00 Thanks very much.

40:04 Winter gas and avoidance. We don't expect that much of our finished product production in Europe will be impacted by gas prices for the reasons that we talked about. One exception could be our plant in Italy, but that's of course a fairly minor part of our earnings, so it's not a big impact. When it comes to how to model it, it's really the one million ton capacity that we have to curtail. And we would never produce at a negative margin. So that would be curtailed if gas prices or cash cost of production is higher than the ammonia price, even if that ammonia has been physically used to feed one of our own plants rather than replace it with imports.

40:58 Thank you so much. I can just add, if it helps, the current run rate of curtailment is 270,000 tons of ammonia. If you assume 36 million mW per ton of ammonia and the four-quarter gas cost of $24 per mW, that gives $230 million in gas cost avoidance just there. But you, of course, can't just add that on the estimate because it's a margin exposure in total, but just to illustrate the impact of it. And then, as we touched upon, we have Magnus Rasmussen Yes, thank you, Magnus Rasmussen from SEB

41:58 A question on the gas cost guidance. It's about, as far as I can see, 100 million a quarter higher than what the sensitivity would give us. And just a quick comment on that, sort of why is the estimate higher? I understand that you're sort of counting consumption when you're guiding one or two quarts ahead, but it would be the third quarter in a row. So is the... Thanks. Yes. I can start with the first question. If you look at the slide in the appendix, which gives the details of the gas cost guidance, you will notice that the gas consumption for Q25 was higher than the normal quarter, and higher than what the sensitivities are based on, so that gives a wholly neutral higher gas price impact, and then sensitivities, which have since been adjusted with, for example, times that are being closed, etc., and a few other parts. So it's really the starting point in there, which is the last year's consumption being high, which is a bit

43:29 specific. That quarter we had quite limited turnarounds and reliabilities in fourth quarter last year, so we had kind of above average gas consumption in that quarter. For the updated gas guidance that we gave in the pre-quarter, it's... It's a little bit more related to when this is volatile and we have different lags and different timing to take from we consume gas to we actually deliver the products with that gas. That varies way more when prices move as quickly as they have. So we have some shorter lags in European plants and some longer lags in other plants that typically serve export markets. So that's what's triggered the biggest difference from the original guidance to the updated guidance.

44:15 Thank you. Just one final question also on the Gulf Coast Ammonia project. You sent out a message in August regarding a legal issue. It seems like things are moving according to plan. Is that because the legal issue has been solved or is it because you are just assuming that that will be fine?

44:33 I think the regulatory process is the last step now for Angelina Glasova, please unmute and ask your question.

45:01 Hello, thank you very much for taking my questions. I just have two questions first. First is, do you follow up on TCA or more broadly your approach to managing the ammonia framework globally? You have mentioned that after the closing of this acquisition, the approach would be to stick to the capital allocation policy, but in a way that would Thank you very much. Are you thinking of a timing potentially in the future or it could be relatively sooner? Any color you could give would be helpful.

45:47 And then my second question is maybe going back to the economics of ammonia production in Europe. We obviously already saw in the past that when gas prices rise significantly, there can be a period of time when making ammonia in Europe is an economic and that results in curtailments. Svein Tore Holsether

46:33 Yeah, maybe I'll do the last one first. So, I mean, what's important to distinguish here is finished products and ammonia. And, of course, you also sell some ammonia as a finished product, so to speak. But when we talk about our order books and we, in general, talk about nitrogen demand in Europe, we're talking about finished products. So, urea, nitrates in particular, MPK. And there's a margin between, as all our gas consumption goes into the ammonia production, there's a spread between cash cost of ammonia production and the ammonia price, and then there's a spread between ammonia prices and nitrate prices.

47:19 And right now, the spread in Europe between cash cost of ammonia and ammonia price is negative, but the spread between gas prices and nitrates is positive. So that's that's why you know we that's why there's still I mean significant production economics for nitrates production in Europe. So if your only choice if your only choice to if in order to produce nitrates you have to keep your ammonia running you would do so because there's a positive margin. If you can close your ammonia production import ammonia to produce the same nitrates your So that's what we're doing. We are curtailing the excess ammonia production and the ammonia production that we can that goes into nitrates and replacing that with imports.

48:15 Of course, there is another question whether European ammonia production will be needed for the idea that the doctor put out.

48:28 Yeah, so I understand your question was a bit surprised by such a relatively poor ammonia market, that production in Europe is not economical, despite all the outages in the Arab Gulf, particularly, I guess. I guess that was the question. I think that in that context, it's very important to be aware of the sulfur implications for the phosphate sector, to have that in mind, because Half of world sulfur trade is coming out of the Arab Gulf, and it's not possible to produce phosphate fertilizer without sulfur, because their phosphate rock is dissolved in sulfuric acid. So that means that since phosphate producers are unable to secure sulfur, they don't need to buy ammonia.

49:17 So you get a negative demand effect for ammonia globally that kind of offsets to a large extent Those supply outages in Arab Gulf. That is why the ammonia market is hit differently than upgraded nitrogen products when it comes to that Arab Gulf conflict.

49:40 Regarding capital allocation, what we mean is that when we... I mean, from a capex guidance perspective, we could illustrate the... Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Great, thank you very much. Thank you.

51:09 So just one question really. So we saw some curtailments in Europe in early August and September, but we haven't seen that much or at least heard of that much ever since ADF and That Night Run posted these. Could you just give us a quick update or call it insight into what Jakarta is seeing or hearing in the market? Are there more curtailments not being published? Are there... We don't have very accurate numbers to share, because most producers tend not to communicate very clearly around this, so it's very hard to monitor.

52:08 But we can of course the publications or the market followers are trying to do their best to have some assessments and of course it is logical to assume that as we are doing that there are more curtailments on the ammonia level than on the finished fertilizer level because of the, as Magnus said, the positive nitrate premiums or margins in particular. But I've seen consultants that are kind of adding numbers together to get to at least a 25% curtailment on the ammonia side. Some are saying 28% or higher as well, which I guess fits very well when you start to add together our own curtailments.

52:53 When we said what LAT, as you said, in the French operations, also Pistritz is probably running only partly. Fertiberia has announced closures. It would be very surprising if the Polish went at full speed over East European as well. So that kind of makes sense. So So there is substantial curtailments. I mean, it doesn't look that different from 21-22. You know, ammonia production in Europe went from 16 million tons in 2020 to 12 million tons and something in 2022. That is a 25% cut.

53:38 Of course, now those 16 million tons never returned. Ammonia production only increased to 14 point something. Thank you very much for taking my question. Just a clarification really if possible.

54:14 You mentioned, obviously, the reliability issues of slow skill. Did that extend to any of the three ammonia units, or was it just on the finished first side? And can I then infer when you said that it's operating well now across finished firsts, is that the same on the ammonia side, or are there any issues there at present? Thank you.

54:39 So two different things there. So we had an outage in nitric acid, really, so we've impacted nitrate production back in Q2, I believe. And all of that is back up and running now. And those were unscheduled outages. When it comes to the ammonia side, The curtailments we do there are for market reasons, and then we curtail the excess ammonia and sort of maximize our import capabilities into slow-skid. But those curtailments are purely market-driven.

55:27 Great, thank you. And the finished fertilizer is running full blast. Currently no more hands up, so I'll give everyone a final chance to ask a question, but if not... Okay, we have a question from a phone number. I don't have a name, but the phone number ends with 565. Can you please unmute and ask your question? You can... Unmute to press star followed by six.

56:12 This is Lisa Bnevi from Marseille. I'm not sure if you can hear me. Oh, now we can hear you. Okay, wonderful. Thank you, because I didn't understand the local language comments, so apologies for that. So, I have two small questions. One, can you just confirm to me that the phosphate outage in Finland has been resolved? That's my first question. And secondly, I would like to come back to the questions on the delay in purchasing activity. I mean, how should we think about the appetite for farmers and the timing around coming back to fulfill... To which extent do you think it is a function of El Nino uncertainty and the current level of European gas prices? And overall, I mean, how do you think about the deadline for farmers in the Northern Hemisphere to come back to the market and fulfill any purchases they need for next application season?

57:06 Thank you.

57:08 Yeah, regarding your first question, I... And this is regarding our production in Finland for phosphate production there. We have experienced some issues actually with our sulfuric acid plant there, which then impacts phosphate production. Those issues are not fully resolved, but we have implemented mitigating actions, and we also have some And that's where farmers are buying? Yeah, no, I mean...

58:00 It's of course hard to say, because it's a commodity market, so it's a game, right? And I mean, we have been surprised a little bit by how late buying has been several seasons in a row, with very concentrated Q1 buying and spiking prices in Q1. I think it's a If it happens again, it will be the fourth time in a row. So from that sense, you would kind of find it logical that some would buy a little bit earlier. But let's see how that plays out. It's a game in buyers and sellers. In Europe, as we mentioned, we're already seeing some effects, I think, of some concerns. Because as you said, September really picked up, and we mentioned that the order book for Q4 is strong. So...

58:46 There is already some impact, I think, of the concerns that is triggered by the global market. and of course in Europe last season was an exception because you had this CBAM introduction from January 1st that led to a lot of imports and also buying in general but a lot of imports in Q4 particularly in December that was an anomaly I think that we also have to be aware of it I don't think you can expect that kind of imports in Q4 this year so that could also then add to a Q1 situation If that doesn't happen. And your question of El Niño, I think, yes, you see a lot of reports, right, but you don't see a lot of evidence.

59:38 But let's say Brazil as an example where there is some concern about too much dryness in one part of the country and excess rain in another. That's one of the reasons why the Why nitrogen imports into Brazil can be lagging so much as it is, by as much as 10%? It could be that there are farmers that are concerned that the yield potential will not really call for so much nutrient application. But it's hard to specify concretely, I think. Sales in India, for instance, another country where there's been a lot of talk about El Nino and a country that has had Svein Tore Holsether

1:00:53 Thank you very much. Thank you. That was today's final question. The IR team remains available if you have any follow-up questions. But other than that, thank you for watching and listening.