Vantiva (Euronext:VANTI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call

0:00 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Vantiva Full Year twenty twenty five Estimated Operational Results Conference Call chaired by Tim Olaflin and Lars Helene here in the room. So, at this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. If you'd like to register a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Just to remind you all, this conference is being recorded. We would like to inform you that this event is also available live on our Vantiva website with synchronized slideshow. During this conference call, statements could be made that constitute forward looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed, forecast or implied by such forward looking statements.

1:06 For a more complete list and description of such risks and uncertainties, refer to Vantiva's filing with the French So, we're here today as we published our estimated results for 2025 this morning. These results are unaudited as the auditors have not yet completed their review. We expect to publish the audited accounts by the end of April. Now, let's turn the call to our CEO, Tim Olaflin. Tim, the floor is yours. Thanks, Thierry. Hi, everyone. I'll start on slide number five.

1:53 We are proud to have achieved once again our financial target at budgeted foreign exchange rate. A big thank you to all of our stakeholders, including most importantly, our incredible Vantiva teams and our customers. Performance was supported by a strong start to the year, driven by robust broadband demand, particularly in North America. As expected, this trend slowed a bit in Q4 of twenty twenty five when you compare to our strong Q4 of twenty twenty four. The end of the year was also somewhat more challenging than planned, notably due to some component supply constraints. On the video side, we continued to face soft demand across most markets as many customers are generally losing video subscribers or flat.

2:42 The Indian market and some Western European markets have shown some exceptions. EBITDA showed a strong improvement driven by the success of our cost optimization initiatives. This achievement was made possible by the synergies extracted from the integration of the Home Networks business unit from CommScope. We are in the late stages of our transformation program and some further potential for cost optimizations will emerge in 2026. We have initiated the refinancing of the debt that is maturing this year and we're confident of a positive outcome. Let me now comment on some market trends from Slide number six. As in previous years, demand was supported by technological innovation, DOCSIS four, Wi Fi seven, XGS PON and fixed wireless access were the main growth drivers.

3:41 Vantiva has continued to pursue its innovation strategy, particularly around Wi Fi seven and has won multiple awards for its products. While the outlook for video equipment remains challenging, we have nevertheless received awards for our next generation set top boxes. As you also know, sustainability remains a focus for the group. In 2025, we successfully obtained our group wide ISO 37,001 certification anti bribery management system, And we will shortly announce our 2026 EchoVadis status. Additionally, SBTI has approved our new mid term and net zero targets 2040. Let's now turn to Slide number seven, and Lars will walk us through some of the financial results.

4:34 Thank you very much, Tim. So revenues reached SEK 1,706,000,000 in 'twenty five, down 7% at current exchange rates and 3.1% at constant exchange rates. We reported year on year growth until September, but as mentioned earlier, Q4 was impacted both by a challenging comparison versus last year and some supply shortages. EBITDA, however, increased significantly by 33.4% year over year and is now representing 8.3% of the revenues. It's 2.5 improvement in margin, but driven by the synergies already mentioned and our continued cost optimization efforts. Most importantly, this year, we generated a positive free cash flow after interest tax and restructuring cost.

5:20 And the free cash flow for the continuing activities reached $62,000,000 which is an $87,000,000 improvement compared to last year. On Slide eight, you can see how we performed versus our guidance. And the guidance is here provided both in budget rate and in the actual rates. And I think the number speaks for themselves on this page. And now we will hand you back to Tim again, so he can give some words on 2026. Thanks, Lars. I'm now on Slide nine, looking at our outlook for 2026. We're currently seeing encouraging signals in demand trend for many of our customers. This is generally driven by new generations of devices, Wi Fi seven, XGS PON, fixed wireless access.

6:09 Even in video, we're seeing opportunities in certain regions. However, there are some significant uncertainties in the market. There are unknowns related to the conflict in The Middle East and the memory markets remain highly volatile. This environment limits our visibility on EBITDA. As a result, we are not providing EBITDA guidance at this stage, but we are targeting positive free cash flow for the year. Before we take your questions, I'll now hand it back to Lars, who will provide you with some further details on free cash flow and liquidity measures. Okay. So we are now on Page 11. And as we are only providing estimated results, I will not provide a full breakdown of the numbers that I usually do in these calls.

6:56 These numbers will be available when we present the fully audited accounts at the end of April. In the meantime, I can provide some additional color on the free cash flow generation and the liquidity situation. So, on the free cash flow generation, as I mentioned, we managed an 87,000,000 improvement year over year from a negative 25,000,000 in 'twenty four to $62,000,000 positive in 'twenty five. The largest increase came from our improvement in EBITDA, which increased by $36,000,000 mainly linked to the synergies following the integration of the home network division from CommScope in 2023. Integration and synergy efforts also impacted the amount to use on CapEx, and we spent $18,000,000 less on CapEx in 2024 than we did the previous year. Restructuring charges reached a peak in 2024 and will decrease from now on. In 2025, we spent $25,000,000 less on restructuring than we did the previous year.

7:51 The change in net working capital is measured at the variance in 'twenty four versus the variance in 'twenty five. And even though we still had a positive impact on our working capital in 2025, it was less positive by $28,000,000 than what it was in 2024. Improved by $6,000,000 as some of our unfunded plans have decreased over the year, and the financial charges improved by 17,000,000. And this is mainly linked to lower level of debt during the year versus 2024, and less utilization of our Wells Fargo line. Finally, tax improved by 16,000,000, as we had some tax charges in 'twenty four that was refunded in 'twenty five. And all in all, this led to the improvement of $87,000,000 as mentioned earlier. On Page 12, you can see our liquidity and debt situation.

8:41 So, we ended the year with 13,000,000 cash on hand and an availability of 22,000,000 on our Wells Fargo facility. The facility had an available line of 78,000,000 and was drawn by 56,000,000 at the end of the year. Total debt amounted to $5.00 $1,000,000 in nominal amounts and $496,000,000 in IFRS amounts. And with this, I will hand it back to Thierry so he can start the Q and A session. Thank you, Lars. Thank you, team. So, now it's time to open the Q and A session. Operator? The first question is from Emmanuel Mateau with ODDO BHF.

9:35 Please go ahead. Hello, gentlemen. Thank you for this presentation. I have three questions. First, is there still potential for synergies in 2026 from the acquisition of the Home Networks business of CommScope? Second, are you already seeing disruptions in supply chains and trade flows due to the conflict in The Middle East? And third, what level of provisions have you included in the 2025 financial statement along the settlement of several significant patent related disputes.

10:20 Thank you very much. Thank you, Emmanuel. I'll take questions one and two and save the provisions question for Lars. With respect to potential synergies further synergies in 2026, we are on the tail end of our transformation plan with respect to the integration of CommScope's home networks business into legacy Vantiva. We are not forecasting a specific number on further synergies, but there is some potential for some long tail further efficiencies to emerge in the business in 2026 as we wrap up that transformation plan. With respect to disruptions, we are currently not forecasting any specific direct disruptions to Vantiva's business related to the conflict in The Middle East. However, we have seen the cost of transportation increase along with the cost of petroleum.

11:23 There are people in the industry talking about other indirect supply chain impacts that may occur due to component shortages or supply shortages in The Middle East. We are not currently projecting any direct impact, but there of course is the possibility for indirect impact to Vantiva. Lars, do you want to take the provisions question? Yep. Hey, Emmanuel. And due to the confidential state of these settlements, I cannot say very much about what we have put in the results for them. What I could say is that due to the size and the structure of this, this is not booked in the EBITDA. Okay, so this is booked in exceptional items that you may be able to see when you read the financial statements in April.

12:14 Yes, I understand. Thank you very much. The next question is from David Sardin with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Yes. Good afternoon, Thank you for this presentation. I have a couple of questions. The first one is regarding the activity. Have you seen some of your clients to change their orders because of the uncertainties? So one question is regarding the profitability. How do you see profitability to be along the year? Do you expect the year to be something like back end loaded? So this is my second question.

13:01 And my third question is your cash peel. So if I'm right, the start of the year is cash consuming. So can you explain how you expect to manage your liquidity position in this beginning of the year? Thanks for the questions, David. Lars, I'll take the first question about clients and any changes they've made to orders. I'll hand off profitability phasing and cash burn liquidity to you afterwards. If anything, David, from a client standpoint, we continue to see some resilience in broadband demand and even in video demand.

13:47 In certain markets, there does seem to be an underlying consumer need for wireless and wireline connections. We have not seen any significant changes to our order book from clients that we think is directly related to any of the conflict in The Middle East or to any of the challenges around supply chain yet. So, generally, we have a pretty positive outlook right now about client demand. Lars, if you wanna take profitability phasing and cash burn? Yeah. So on the profitability phasing, that should trend according to our normal state of the business. So, it should grow from quarter to quarter in a normal case. The reason why we don't guide this year is that it is a bit of uncertainty on how material costs, etcetera, could impact this. So it's a bit difficult to say exactly how this will be in 2026.

14:47 But as in any normal year, we should have improving profitability during the year. On the liquidity part, you're right that we are starting at the low point in 2026, but we have managed to get through the first quarter, with the preferable payment terms from customers and also better utilization of Wells Fargo account. So, this is not the high notes, and we expect a more normal liquidity during the rest of the year. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. Back to you for any closing remarks you may have.

15:42 Tim, do you want to Thank make any you again. Yes, of course. Thank you again to all of our employees for a great 2025. It's exciting to be able to work alongside everyone to achieve our guidance numbers at the budgeted foreign exchange rate. There's more work to do in 2026. We're looking forward to it. And of course, thank you to all of our stakeholders, most importantly, our customers. So a great 2025. Looking forward to next year. I'll let you close the call, Thierry. Okay. Thank you, Tim. It is time to conclude this call. Thank