Postal Realty Trust (NYSE:PSTL) Q3 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 Greetings and welcome to the Postal Realty Trust Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the prepared remarks. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Jordan Cooperstein, Senior Vice President of Finance and Capital Markets. Welcome, Jordan.

0:26 Thank you and good morning, everyone. On the call today, we have Andrew Spodek, Chief Executive Officer, Steve Bakke, Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Garber, President, and Matt Brandwein, Chief Accounting Officer. Please note, the company may use forward-looking statements on this conference call, which are statements that are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking. These forward-looking statements are intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements and will be affected by a variety of risks and factors that are beyond the company's control, including, but not limited to, those contained in the company's latest 10-K and 10-Q and its other regulatory filings with the SEC.

1:15 The company does not assume it specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Additionally on this conference call, the company may refer to certain non-GAAP financial and operating measures such as funds from operations, adjusted funds from operations, adjusted EBITDA, annualized adjusted EBITDA, run rate adjusted EBITDA, net debt, pro forma net debt, occupancy, net operating income, same store cash NOI, and same store cash revenue. You can find definitions and to the extent available tabular reconciliations of these and other non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the company's earnings release and supplemental materials available on the company's investor relations website. With that, I will now turn the call over to Andrew Spodek, Chief Executive Officer of Postal Realty Trust.

2:14 Thank you, Jordan, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. The third quarter marked another strong period of execution for postal realty. We delivered 9.1% AFFO per share growth compared to the same quarter last year and raised our guidance for the third time this year to a midpoint of $1.43 per share. We acquired $82 million of postal properties and are increasing our guidance to $185 to $200 million at a low 7% weighted average cap rate for 2026. And we accomplished all of this while bringing leverage down to 3.5 times pro forma net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA and achieving a BBB Rating from Fitch. To recap our acquisition strategy, we target properties that are day one accretive with embedded growth potential. We underwrite not just with the next quarter or year in mind, but looking multiple years to the future. The internal growth opportunity distinguishes us. I want to share a few figures that illustrate what this looks like.

3:14 We acquired over 800 properties from 2020 to 2022. totaling north of $370 million at a blended cap rate of 7.1%. Since we've owned these properties, we have driven the cash yield approximately 200 basis points higher than where we acquired the properties by marking leases to market, creating operating efficiencies, and adding 3% annual escalators in new leases. Every acquisition is different. The timing of lease rolls and the gap between current and market rents will vary. But across this large sample size, the results clearly show the NOI growth that the machine we've built has delivered. On past earnings calls, we have stated that a better cost of capital will allow us to pursue a broader universe of properties with strong growth potential.

4:02 Our third quarter results are an excellent illustration of what we can achieve with improved access to well-priced capital. We invested in high-quality postal real estate portfolios and individual assets in a wide range of markets. from small towns to larger cities. Notable locations this quarter include a 33,000 square foot property in Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn, 25,000 square feet at a facility in St. Paul, Minnesota, and a 2.8 acre property in the Central Business District of Greenwich, Connecticut. Our blended cash cap rate for the quarter was 6.9%, a healthy spread to our cost of capital, and we are excited about the NOI growth we expect to achieve. Cost of capital dictates the opportunities we pursue.

4:49 This discipline is reflected in the wider acquisition guidance range this quarter, and it is in line with our history of being highly responsive to the capital markets environment. I've never been more confident in our ability to deliver continued earnings growth, given our robust acquisition pipeline, over $340 million of liquidity, including unsettled forwards, and a cost of capital we can deploy accretively. With that, I will turn it over to Steve.

5:15 Thank you, Andrew. We've talked in prior quarters about our ASFO growth building blocks, and today, each of those building blocks is contributing meaningfully. First, we are retaining more cash after dividend payments than ever before as a public company, which we are utilizing to either pay down debt or acquire properties. Second, the day one accretion we generate from external growth is substantial, coming in at approximately 90 basis points in the third quarter. Lastly, same-store NOI growth is healthy, and we are on track to achieve the midpoint of our 6% to 7% same-store cash NOI growth guidance this year. In the third quarter, we drove a higher acquisition volume at a slightly lower blended cap rate because of the substantial earnings growth we can derive from feeding our machine.

6:03 For illustrative purposes, each $50 million of incremental acquisition volume adds $1 million of net operating income in a scenario where we expand acquisition yield by an additional 200 basis points after purchase. Shifting to third quarter results, yesterday we reported AFFO per share of 36 cents. This is in line with the second quarter due predominantly to operating expense seasonality and one-time expenses in the quarter. As a three penny per share increase from the same quarter last year, as we benefited from predominantly internal growth and acquisition accretion. Note that in last year's third quarter, we earned approximately half a penny more from one-time lump sum payments.

6:51 Turning to our balance sheet, this quarter we further fortified our capital position, even while closing on a record volume of acquisitions. During and subsequent to the quarter, we raised $117 million via the ATM, of which $83 million of net proceeds remain unsettled. Additionally, we issued $7 million of OP units as part of property acquisitions. We added a summary of equity raising activity thus far this year on page nine of our supplementals. As discussed last quarter, we recast and expanded our credit facilities in July. As part of the recast, in addition to increasing our capacity by $60 million, we added an investment grade pricing grid that offers more favorable pricing upon achievement of an investment grade rating which we secured in August.

7:42 Looking at our balance sheet structure, after equity settled in the third quarter, our net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA stood at 4.4 times. Inclusive of unsettled forward equity raised through October, pro forma net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA was 3.5 times. Even with no significant debt maturities until 2028, We remain focused on adding duration and further staggering our maturities to buttress our financial position. Combined with the U.S. Postal Service's strong tenancy, this gives us significant strategic optionality. Lastly, on the balance sheet front, in late October, we purchased $20 million of forward starting swaps to begin proactively de-risking a portion of our interest rate exposure related to an upcoming debt transaction.

8:34 Now on guidance. We are raising our AFFO per share range by one penny to $1.42 to $1.44 per share, representing 8.3% growth at the midpoint for the year. The increase is driven by higher acquisition volume and improved borrowing costs. Underlying assumptions include fourth quarter recurring capital expenditures in the range of $250,000 to $350,000. Full year 2026 cash G&A expense is expected to land at or slightly below the midpoint of our $11.5 to $12.5 million guidance range. Note that in the third quarter, G&A included approximately $250,000 of expenses related to our credit rating, credit facility recast, and acquisitions, which won't repeat in the fourth quarter.

9:30 Scaling relative to our G&A is one of our top priorities as a company. Our G&A ratio has improved each year since our IPO, and looking forward, we are excited about opportunities to empower the existing team here to cover more ground by applying AI and process automation tools across a variety of accounting, acquisition, and operations workflows. Lastly, our Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of 24.5 cents per share, representing a 1% increase from last year. Our dividend payout ratio for the third quarter is approximately 68%, and our dividend yield as of yesterday was 4.5%. With that, I will turn it over to Jeremy.

10:17 Thank you, Steve. The third quarter was another quarter of strong operating results. Our portfolio remained 99.8% occupied and our historical lease retention rate held at 99.6%, a reflection of the stable, predictable cash flows our business generates. Our leasing activity this quarter further reinforces that stability. With 2026 leases behind us, execution of the 2027 leases with the Postal Service is underway. As I noted last quarter, as in prior years, 2027 new leases will include 3% annual rent escalations and the vast majority will have 10-year terms, excluding leases subject to existing renewal options. Finally, we are in conversation with the Postal Service on 2028 expirations, keeping us on track toward achieving our shared goal of fully executing new leases before the current leases expire.

11:17 With this quarter's leasing progress, 60% of our leases include annual rent escalations, 55% of leases contain 10-year terms, and our weighted average lease term stood at 6.4 years at quarter end, inclusive of executed and agreed upon leases through 2027. Given our visibility into upcoming lease renewals, we are reaffirming our 2027 same-store cash revenue growth of 6.5%. Now to acquisitions. During the quarter, we acquired 145 properties for $82 million at a weighted average cash cap rate of 6.9%, expanding our footprint by 388,000 square feet. By property type, that included 130,000 square feet from 101 last mile post offices and 258,000 square feet from 44 Flex properties. Through the first nine months of the year, we acquired 243 properties for approximately $162 million at a weighted average cash cap rate of 7.1%.

12:33 With that, we'll end our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

13:17 Thank you. On the acquisitions you made this quarter at 6.9% yield, how much of that was driven by the assets you acquired in Greenwich and Brooklyn? And can you talk about the upside potential that you see, you know, maybe provide a stabilized yield once you get the mark-to-market and the change in escalators?

13:38 Thanks for the question, John. So the cap rate for this quarter was driven not just by The properties that we highlighted in the script, but some other properties that we believe have real embedded growth over the next couple of years. What we illustrated for the first time is that, you know, we're trying to show people what the results of not just the day one accretion and not just the efficiencies and synergies we're getting from operating, but also what we're gaining from marking these leases to market and getting those 3% escalators. and we're hopeful that what we've been able to do in the past we'll be able to do in the future. Our next question comes from Greg McGinnis with Scotiabank.

14:28 Please go ahead.

14:31 Hey, good morning. The revised acquisition guidance implies just around 30 million of acquisitions in Q4 following a record Q3. Given your liquidity, is this conservatism, lumpy transaction timing, or just reflective of the change in your current cost of capital? And how should we kind of think about that going forward into 2027 as well?

14:56 So, Greg, I appreciate the question. It's a combination of all those things and more. From what we've tried to illustrate to everybody over the years and what we've actually been showing is that Our cost and our access to capital needs to tie out with our pipeline. And when all those three things align, then we're able to achieve what we're able to do this past quarter. Our conservatism or our estimate, which is a wider range of our acquisitions for Q4, is based on not knowing what all those things are going to tie out to for the fourth quarter, especially given the volatility in the market today. And so as we are able to access Thank you for joining us today.

16:05 So if our cost of capital holds, we can lean into that, as Andrew mentioned.

16:11 Okay, thank you. And can I follow up on those lower cap acquisitions from this quarter? Am I hearing you right that you're saying you think there's more internal growth for those lower cap acquisitions than what you have been acquiring in the 7172 range? And even in, I think, like the illustrative example in the presentation, which basically saying even if it was the same, greater, acquisition volume does lead to greater growth. But I'm curious if you're actually seeing more growth from the lower cap assets.

16:43 So that's a very good question. You know, we look at and acquire a wide range of assets throughout this entire country. And so each asset and each acquisition really speaks for itself. When we see greater embedded growth or graded potential for that embedded growth, then we're able to buy things at a lower cap rate because we see that what the stabilized yield is going to achieve. But every deal really has to speak for itself. And we believe that the acquisitions we bought this quarter are really going to achieve the growth that we are really trying to accomplish. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Pallone with JPMorgan Chase Co.

17:31 Please go ahead.

17:34 Good morning, guys. You have an Alhaman for Tony this morning. Maybe on the portfolio you guys purchased outside of the ROFO, since Postal already managed these properties, how should we think about the embedded mark-to-marketer lease term upside compared to traditional assets that you guys buy that you'll bring into your system and get some expansion on?

18:01 Yeah. I mean, this is a great example of Long-term relationships and life events and how those play into our acquisition strategy. So this is a partner that I've been chasing for over 10 years and made annual visits to him. And he experienced a life event in the past year and came to us and we moved forward with our acquisition team on underwriting these assets These are great assets, assets we know, very typical of the type of assets we buy. Growth profile, very similar. There are some assets here in this portfolio that have experienced our new lease form because as managers of these assets, they get the benefit of the proprietary lease that we have. But yeah, this was modeled the way every other acquisition is modeled.

19:00 As Andrew described, we're trying to achieve day one accretion and acquire assets that have embedded growth.

19:08 Got it. Thanks. And maybe as a follow up, sticking on the transaction market, I think on prior calls, you guys have mentioned that, you know, mom and pop sellers in the market aren't necessarily solving for a cap rate or an IRR. Could you walk us through maybe what they are actually optimizing for and how that maybe shapes your approach to sourcing and pricing?

19:32 It's really a very difficult thing to answer, just given the amount of volume of not just deals, but owners and sellers that we're dealing with, talking to, and transacting with on a daily basis. And there doesn't necessarily have to be a significant theme amongst them. If I had to give you some commonality, it is something along the lines of what Jeremy is saying, which is the average owner is in their 60s to 80s. The average owner is on their building more than 50 years. And so life events or the thought of life events or estate planning or liquidity or things like that that people consider at that stage of life is probably most of the larger percentage of transactions that come to us.

20:20 But you also have to understand that 75% of our deal flow is actually off market. And so these are people that we've been talking to over long periods of time like Jeremy was doing or like the transaction in Greenwich. I've been working on that deal for probably 30 years. The Brooklyn transaction is not an owner that I was dealing with for a long time but came through a relationship. These are off-market deals that people are not really explaining to you specifically why they're transacting, but if I had to put a theme on it, I would say life events and HR. Our next question comes from Matt Roberts with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

21:07 Hey, good morning, guys. This is Matt on for John. Curious to hear more on AI usage at the company, especially with regards to acquisitions. And then second, how is the company thinking about future dividend growth now that ASFO growth has accelerated?

21:23 Yeah, great question, Steve. Hey, this is Steve. As it relates to AI, there are a lot of ways that we're deploying it across the platform. What we've found so far is rather than any grand solutions, we can plug AI into existing processes and increase efficiency and allow the team to take on more. As it relates to acquisitions, we have a variety of due diligence items and checklists that we put together or gathering data vetting data, checking data, and AI can help increase the speed and efficiency with which we do that and help us, like the current quarter, acquire almost double the typical quarter without adding any additional personnel.

22:11 As it relates to the dividend, I'll start by saying it's a board decision, but there are a few overlays that we look at the dividend recommendation through. The first is our capital strength and the credit we get with various constituents on the lending side for having a low payout ratio. 70% or lower feels to us like an appropriate number to keep a strong financial position. The second piece is the retained cash flow. By retaining more cash flow and reinvesting in the business, while the dividend is lower today, The deployment of that cash flow can accelerate our AFFO growth and ultimately lead, we believe, to higher dividends in the future.

23:00 So that's really what excites and motivates us is that long-term growth. And the last piece on the dividend is maintaining our REIT compliance. So we have to pay out 95% of our net income. As we have grown our cash flows, we've gotten closer and closer to that point where we are paying out close to the minimum that we can pay out to maintain re-compliance. So I think that will be an upward pressure on our dividend over time to the extent our cash flow continues to grow. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad.

23:49 Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

23:55 Thanks for taking the follow-up. Looking at the USPS latest quarterly results, they had a 6% increase in revenue, but another quarter of losses, $2.5 billion this quarter, and the Postmaster General warned of a severe liquidity crisis, which I know they've used that language or similar language in the past. But I guess my question has to relate to Postal. Have negotiations changed at all because of their situation? and do you think the USPS is more likely to sell assets within its own portfolio to the market to help address this?

24:32 I appreciate the question. So I guess there are a couple of questions within your questions. So negotiations, number one, have not changed. Number two is we have to keep in mind that, like we said before, the leasing of the entire postal network is only 1.5% of the Postal Service's operating expenses, and it is the backbone of their entire delivery and operational business, what they need to deliver to the 170 million delivery points that they do six to seven days a week. That is their business, and that is what they do, and they need these buildings in order to accomplish that. In terms of them selling assets, I'm obviously biased, but I would argue you're right and that they should sell their assets. I can't tell you that they're actually going to do it or this is going to motivate them.

25:30 But if it does, we are sitting here ready, willing, and able to buy them. So I guess time will tell. But I think the Postal Service is actually more focused on the operations and trying to serve the American people the way that they always have. And can you remind typically sell annually. I'm sorry, you broke up.

25:55 I didn't hear that. Can you say that again? Can you remind us their track record of dispositions or selling assets?

26:04 So they don't really have much of a track record. In the past, they did sell properties and they did do a sale lease back on a portion of the property, but they didn't typically dispose of properties that they wanted to maintain a tenancy in a significant portion of the property. This is not something that they historically did on a proactive basis. Okay. Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Andrew Spodek for closing comments.

26:43 We've made tremendous progress year to date growing this highly scalable platform backed by a growing rent stream, from a tenant who pays 100% of the rent 100% of the time. I've never been more confident in our ability to consolidate the postal real estate market given our access to capital, robust pipeline, and the strength of our team. We look forward to meeting at upcoming conferences and updating you on our progress next quarter. Thank you again for joining us today. We have reached the end of today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.