Replay available

First Tin (LSE:1SN) — Investor Update

Investor Update hosted by First Tin (LSE:1SN) on Investor Meet Company, held 2024-05-02.

Thu, May 2, 2024 at 5:00 AMendedReplay
First Tin (LSE:1SN) — Investor Update
Company
First Tin PLC (LSE:1SN)
Date
Thu, May 2, 2024, 5:00 AM ET
Replay
Watch the replay on this page · 33 min
Results news release
Results of Taronga Definitive Feasibility Study · Thu, May 2, 2024

On 6ix: 6ix.com/event/first-tin-plc-1sn-investor-update

Replay

Transcript

Automated transcript · Written by software from the replay's audio. It can mishear names and figures; the replay is the record.

0:00 Good morning, and welcome to the FIRST TIN PLC investor presentation. Throughout this recorded presentation, investors will be in a listen only mode. Questions are encouraged and can be submitted at any time via the Q and A tab situated on the right hand corner of your screen. Simply type in your questions and press send. The company may not be in a position to answer every question received during the meeting itself. However, the company can review all questions submitted today and publish responses where it's appropriate to do so. Before we begin, I'd like to submit the following poll. And I'd now like to hand you over to Bill Scotting, CEO. Good morning, sir.

0:32 Thank you, Lily, and good morning, and welcome everyone. Once again, I'm joined by Tony Truelove, our chief geologist and chief technical officer. Tony's sitting in Brisbane in Australia, so good evening to you, Tony. The usual disclaimer here on page one, which I draw your attention to. And this is why we're here today. This morning, we published the results of our DEFINITY feasibility study for our Tauranga project in Australia. The study confirms that Tauranga will be a highly attractive, low CapEx, high margin mine to supply much needed TIN units to a changing world.

1:15 Tauranga is a truly unique resource and its value derives from the natural endowments of geology, mineralogy, and geography, which produce risk, CapEx, and OpEx. The geology has provided us with a very large resource base of a 138,000 tonnes. We have reserves which have increased to 52,000 tonnes in a simple coarse grained ore body. It is amenable to low cost, low risk, bulk open pit mining with a low strip ratio and easy grade control. It is one of the few new open pit mines available. The mineralogy has the tin as a coarse grain cassiterite in narrow quartz veins within a harder Hornfell's base drop.

2:02 You can see these in the photo in the top middle. Natural fracturing fracturing along the quartz veins as shown in the photo bottom middle makes blasting straightforward, reducing mining cost. The same fracturing coupled with the coarse nature of the cassiterite enables rapid liberation, volume reduction, and grade enhancement with only basic crushing and gravity separation processes. Most importantly, this can be done by a low tech, low CapEx, and low cost processing facility. Turning to geography, Toronto is located in a historic TIN district in Northern New South Wales, which lowers permitting risk, lowers CapEx, and lowers OpEx. The top the topography, as a couple of the photos show, allows a relatively small footprint, and the layout makes use of contours, which reduces CapEx and OpEx.

3:01 These natural endowments make for highly attractive value creation. Starting at the bottom left on this page, 143,000,000 Australian dollars is the pretax NPV from the DFS study. Most important to recognize that this was done at a very conservative TIN price of 26,000 US dollars. However, since we settled on that price as the basis for the DFS, we've seen the jump in tin prices as the reality of constrained global tin supply and low inventory becomes apparent. With spot prices around 33,000 US dollars per ton, our DFNET DFS number represents a very conservative base, even a low case today.

3:49 So if I adjust for a more representative TIN price of 30,000 US dollars, which is still 10% below spot, we add a 100,000,000 Aussie dollars to the NPV, bringing us to $243,000,000. The pit optimizations were based on the conservative $26,000 TIN price. So when taking a high price, you have the potential for deeper pit and a longer mine life. A preliminary assessment indicates that we could add around three years to the mine life, which is worth around $52,000,000. In addition, the original pit optimizations and detailed design were done at a very conservative recovery factor. Adjusting for the more recent higher recoveries achieved gives another circa 25,000,000 uplift to the NPV.

4:40 These couple of increases are based on work that's already been done, so we consider them low hanging fruit. So this brings us to what we consider an optimized NPV of 320,000,000 Australian dollars at a still conservative 30,000 US dollar TIN price. Now we come to further upside. With some infill and extension drilling to follow the recent soil sampling work, we would expect to convert more inferred resources and open up adjacent zones to the two

5:12 pits. This would extend mine life by another three years to fifteen years and give an NPV uplift of another 40,000,000 Aussie. Finally, the project is very leveraged to higher TIN prices. For example, a 40,000 US dollar TIN price adds another near 260,000,000 Aussie dollars to the NPV to give an upside potential of 600 and mil to 620,000,000 Australian dollars with some pretty basic assumptions. Beyond this, there's further identified opportunity from brownfield expansions, from satellite deposits, and adding a fine tin flotation circuit. Also, down the road, to look at the sulphide tailings to recover potentially recover copper and silver.

6:04 A very competitive cost base coming from a simple open pit mining and processing translates to a high margin as you can see here. At current spot price, the cash margin from all in sustaining costs is 52%. And even at the conservative DFS price, we have a margin of 40%. So with that, I'll hand over to Tony now to take you through the next few slides. Tony? Yeah, thanks, Bill. As Bill already mentioned, Taronga's unique natural advantage of geology, mineralogy and geography result in significantly lower CapEx than you would otherwise think. The pie chart that you can see shows the breakdown of the CapEx, which is a 176,000,000 Aussie or about a 116,000,000 US.

6:59 So infrastructure processing and energy are the major factor factors as in most, deposits, and they account for about 70% of the CapEx. The infrastructure has been, the infrastructure costs have been reduced by the location as we don't have to spend much at all to access markets, and the site contours have helped with layout and design of dams and waste rock dumps. On-site bore water is close to the processing facility, which reduces costs for pipes and pumps. The coarse mineralogy allows a low tech processing facility, simple crushing and gravity separation with a small footprint. If you can see that in the photo on the bottom left, which is an actual three d model of the actual plant.

7:51 The more expensive back end of sulfide flotation and dressing is therefore very small, less than 50,000 tons per annum, which also reduces the cost for lining what is a very small tailing storage facility. Asset site requirements are pretty basic. We'll also save CapEx by doing self perform on the mining preparation. The one area we are investing in is a solar farm and gas powered engine facility. That has an up from CapEx of 28,000,000 Aussie dollars, roughly 16% of the CapEx. However, we get paid back through lowered OpEx and reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by around 15,000 tons per annum.

8:46 So we've got a simple open pit mine. It's a one to one strip ratio and basic processing plant. So that not only translates into lower CapEx, but also reduces the time to build and get into operation. As shown here, we believe a two year build period is all that is required. CapEx spend ramps up in year two as the bigger sums for the processing plant and energy come through.

9:22 So while we already mentioned the simple open pit mining, which together with the geology makes for very low mining costs. The schematic on the bottom left and the first photo show how the ore outcrops at the surface, which gives low stripping ratio, and and a strip ratio of of roundabout one to one. So that means that the the peak movement, we move 10,000,000 tons of material a year and get 5,000,000 tons of ore, to the front of the crusher by doing that. The mining fleet reflects a conventional truck and excavator operation with a 140 ton primary excavator, a 90 ton secondary ex excavator, 90 ton haul trucks, and a a front end loader for the ROM pad.

10:17 So, mineralogy and processing. So as mentioned earlier, the mineralization is unique in that the tin occurs almost entirely in the form of relatively coarse cassiterite and cheated quartz veins within a Hornfell's tow stroke. The photos along the bottom show this. The veins have a lower rock strength than the hose drop, resulting in preferential breakage along the veins during crushing. That's shown quite clearly in the, middle photo where you can see the course considerate on the vein that's broken along the vein at surface. So these unique characteristics result in 18 to 90% of the tin being liberated at relatively coarse, considerate during the crushing process.

11:06 Crushing reduces the volume by around half with an 85% recovery and upgrades the crushed ore by between a hundred and fifty and two hundred percent, I. E. From about point one three to about point 2% TIN.

11:21 The coarse nature of the considerate then aroused very rapid reduction in volume and increasing grade of the concentrate through the gravity separation and grinding processes. These processes is simple jigs and spirals, with screen cyclones, ball mill, and table cleanup. All basic kit, which is low on CapEx and inexpensive to run. You can see here that these basic concentration processes reduce the volume by 99%, leaving a preconcentrate of around 30,000 tons upgraded to around 15% TIN. The final sulfide float and dressing is therefore relatively small and upgrades the preconcentrate into roughly 6,000 tons of, 60% tin concentrate.

12:19 So the basic mining and processing operations lead to low costs as shown on the right hand table. You can see there that mining processing and GNA costs around about $14 per ton Aussie, and that equates to around about 12,000 US dollars per ton of TIN produced. So the operation requires less than a 150 people. Reagent costs are low as the final sulfide cleanup is small. Maintenance costs are low as, basic equipment is basic, and the solar power more than halves our energy costs compared to the grid. The pie chart shows the split of OpEx over the life of mine.

13:07 And as you can see on the right hand side, these cash cost places towards the lower end of TIN producers and give a healthy 63% margin at current spot. Back to you, Bill.

13:24 Thanks very much, Tony. So as Tony mentioned, we've got a very low cost operation. Combine that with low CapEx, we have a full cost of 19,300 US dollars per ton. This chart is courtesy of the ITA and shows the projected full cost curve for 2027 based on 2022 data. As you can see, we are well in the low half for full cost. And if we were to amortize the CapEx over a longer life of mine as I described earlier, we would be even lower on this full cost curve. Just a few competitor comparisons on the right hand side, and you can see we are close to reported lowest quartile for all in sustaining and cash costs.

14:10 Final point, as the chart on the left shows, the cost curve is going to get steep as marginal and new capacity come into play. The ITAs show the full cost for the ninetieth percentile player as 33,500 US dollars per tonne, which is well above our cost. At our lower cost, the cash generation will be strong. Here you can see the the potential benefit of that low cost and steeper cost curve. Our NPV is highly leveraged to rising prices. Our low cost provides a low breakeven price of 20,500 US dollars. That interestingly is 10% lower than the average TIN price over the last ten years, so it's extremely unlikely to happen.

15:02 The conservative basis of the DFS is shown here as well. Spot prices are already reflecting the ITA forecast inducement price for 2027, and you see that in the middle of the chart. And let's not forget that when structural demand increase happens and supply can't keep up, prices go past the inducement price level and fly up as we already saw in 2022. So I hand back to Tony for a brief update on the upside. Thanks again, Bill. So there are a couple of factors that will support a longer mine life. First, at a higher price, you have the potential to convert more, inferred resources into measured and indicated by more detailed drilling.

15:52 This then leads to a redesign of the pit shell to provide a deeper pit and a wider pit. The second opportunity

16:00 to extend mine life even further, potentially at fifteen years, comes from extensions around the mine. Success for many subsequent follow-up drilling to the recently announced soil sampling could result in the identification of new mineral resources, which may significantly add to the mine life and the project economics. There are several areas identified, which you can see in the graphic on the top left. Firstly, potential parallel zones immediately north of the current pits. There's very limited drilling in into those areas, but we do know that there is mineral mineralization there. So extensions to the Northwest, Northeast, and Southwest, you can see the anomaly extends well beyond the current pit outlines.

16:50 The, in between the two pits where we had one recent drill hole that returned, significant mineralization in an area that was previously thought to be dead. And then there's potential parallel zones to the south of the current pit pits.

17:08 Geos recently, went looking in those soil anomalies and actually identified outcropping tin mineralization at surface. So if you note the outcropping rock broken along a fracture in that lower photo, exposing the black cassiterite that you can see there is quite coarse, and you can see the leaves in the in the background there showing that it's actually outcropping its surface.

17:44 Okay. Pit optimizations and the subsequent detailed design are based on an early recovery formula that has now been shown to be far too conservative.

17:56 So we announced last week that ongoing mineral processing test work has shown a total recovery of 60.2% for a low grade sample. Crushing test work on a high grade sample provided 91% recovery, to the fines, which is significantly higher than what we've had before. So if the gravity concentrate recoveries from that sample is similar to what we've had for the other samples, our recovery at that grade should be around 65 to 66%. So that graph you can see on on the bottom left there will actually rise up significantly.

18:38 So these results arrived too late to redesign the pits, waste rock emplacements, co disposal areas, and tailing storage facility for the DFS. However, revised pit optimizations that we didn't use in the DFS suggests that it currently achieved recoveries of about 59%. The mine life pretax NPV of the project are likely to increase from that that we've provided in the DFS. At a later stage, we also plan to look at a fine TIN flotation circuit, which should improve recoveries by another five to 10%. So apart from Taronga itself, we have secured most of this, broader TIN district.

19:31 So Taronga lies within a historic TIN mining area, which produced over 89,000 tons of tinning concentrate. The photos show old alluvial workings at the

19:42 Tim Beetle prospect, which you can see marked on the map there, around about seven kilometers, south of Taronga itself. So the map shows many areas within 20 kilometers of Taronga, which we hold exploration licenses over. Soil and rock sampling across there has shown potential similar to Taronga, which if proven, would enable a longer term hub and spoke system to be developed around the Taronga processing plant. The purple patches you can see there, a plus 500 PPM soil anomalies, which is a similar order of magnitude to that that covers the Taronga ore body. Back to you again, Bill. Thanks, Tony.

20:29 So the primary focus of today has been about Taronga, But let's not forget about Telehauser. It's located in Southeast Germany, in Saxony. Last week, we announced a significant update to the MRE, 37% increase which makes it one of the largest resources around at 138,000 tonnes. Different to Tauranga, it will be an underground mine but it's also polymetallic with some zinc, indium, magnetite, even some copper to offset the higher cost and complexity of underground mining. It is also part of a TIN district and we have exploration licenses for nearby Goddessburg, Breitenbrug and Ausberg.

21:17 Just a couple of pages on the macro to finish off. On the left hand graph here, you can see the supply demand forecast going forward. With the growth in demand from solar, EVs, electronics in general, there's a broad consensus I believe that we're heading into a period of deficits for TIN. This means that likely higher prices to induce new supply as shown in the right hand chart. TIN prices, the green line, have typically followed the ninetieth percentile on the cost curve. However, with the cost curve steepening as we saw earlier, prices will inevitably rise. Not only that, they'll have to move to a full cost basis and be subject to fly ups until sufficient new capacity comes on stream.

22:05 Given the time for new mines to be developed, that could be for some time yet. The issue this issue arises as for various historic reasons, there's very little new supply coming through. Here you can see a rather short list of new projects. If all these happened over the next few years, which is probably unlikely on that time horizon, it only covers around 35% of the anticipated new demand forecast to 2030. You know, I checked various websites, searched the media for updates. These are the best guesses that I can find on the timing of a number of these projects. What's clear, the world needs new TIN projects.

22:51 We have one of the best available, ready to go forward now with a feasibility study completed. So to conclude, FIRST TINs listed in London and Frankfurt, we've got 100% ownership of two exceptional projects in Australia, Teranga and Germany, Telehauser. Due to their locations, both in historic mining areas, both are close to existing infrastructure, we believe these are two low risk projects. Both projects have established resources and reserves. They've both got scale, and they're progressing through permitting and economic study. Taronga is the most advanced and is probably the most unique TIN opportunity in the world. Simple, low cost, open pit mining and a mineralogy that allows a simple, low cost, gravity based flow sheet.

23:47 You'll have a low position on the cost curve, and as the DFS shows, has very attractive economics with significant upside potential and leverage to higher TIN prices. The outlook for TIN is positive due to the structural shifts underway and the forecast deficits with TIN increasingly recognized as a critical and strategic metal in many jurisdictions around the world. The genesis of FIRST TIN, ten years ago with the founders was to get ready for the expected structural change that would come, And as this feasibility study shows, we are doing that. So with that, that concludes the presentation. Thank you. I believe we have some time for q and a, so I hand it back to you, Lily.

24:35 Bill, Tony, thank you very much for your presentation. Ladies and gentlemen, please do continue to submit your questions just by using the q and a tab situated on the top right hand corner of your screen. Just while the company take a few moments to review those questions submitted today, I'd like to remind you that a recording of this presentation along with a copy of the slides and the published q and a can be accessed via your investor dashboard. As you can see, we have received a number of questions throughout today's presentation. But please ask you to read out the questions and give responses where appropriate to do so, and I'll pick up from you at the end. Okay. Thank you, Lily. Just looking at the questions. There's one here from Pedro b. Thank you, Pedro. The total CapEx is US dollar 116,000,000.

25:20 Correct. How much of it would be financed by public subsidies? Very nice. At this moment, it's it's not financed by public subsidies. Of course, in in Australia, we have some small amounts of funding coming through from the New South Wales government. It's not my expectation that this will be publicly financed. We'll go out looking for project financing, offtake agreements, and the like, and the usual equity and debt. So a combination there is how this will be ultimately financed. So a follow-up question from Pedro.

26:07 Your estimation of total equity needed to finance the CapEx. Look, that's it's it's a good question. It's it's probably too early for that sort of question. I think typically, you know, when you're doing debt financing, doing project financing, the providers always look for an equity proportion. Is that 30%, 40%, 50%? I don't know at this stage. We'll see down the road what the optimal balance of financing will be. So this one, one here from Ian.

26:55 What's your current cash position, cost of the planned infill extension drilling and your high level thoughts on funding. Okay. So the the current cash position, we we gave a update to the market last month. At the at the end of December last year, we had, from memory, $4,000,000 available, which we're working our way through. It's no secret that we will be going after funding this year. It's it's been spoken about. Tony, do you just want to mention your thoughts on infill extension drilling, the cost for that? Yeah. Sure. Look. There's it that there's around about probably seven or 8,000 meters of drilling that I think needs to be done around the the pit. And I think that will add a significant amount of, of new mineralization.

28:01 So, for that, we we're probably looking in the order of $34,000,000. The the there's a fair bit of work going on on-site still. We're doing some regional exploration, and, we we're basically looking at preconstruction of, some of the roads and and water dams ready for next summer. So all of that combined, I think we'd be looking in the probably 5 to $10,000,000 range. Yeah. Thanks, Tony. Yeah. And and I think that the thing about the drilling as well and for the long term drilling and the the the extension of the life of mine in in the long term, the satellite deposits down the road, you'll be paying for some of that also out of, cash flow, as you as you go forward.

29:07 So at the moment, those are all the, here we go. Another question's come in. Trevor, the remaining key Trevor, thank very much. Can you outline the remaining key permits required and reasonable timeline to receive those? Tony, do you want to give an update on that? Yeah. Sure. There's quite a lot of permits that are required. At the moment, we are towards the end stages of our environmental impact study. We plan to lodge that in the, third quarter of this year. So we're we're aiming for July, but, but it may push out into, August or September.

29:54 Once that's lodged, then the the permitting process really starts. What we've been, what we're expecting is that that will take somewhere between six and twelve months depending on, how much pushback we get from from the local government, how many questions get asked, and and how much additional work we need to do. So, look, there there's a I could give you a list of about 50 different permits that we need, before we're actually in production, But we're gradually working our way through all those. And as I've said, the majority of the questions will be answered by July.

30:39 We we're getting towards the end of a nearly two year process, that we've been going through on the environmental side, which has been done in parallel yeah. In parallel with the feasibility study work. Yeah. Thanks very much, Toby. So, look, operator, there's no more questions coming through. Therefore, I'd like to yep. Bill, Tony, thank you for answering all those questions that you carry from investors. And, of course, the company can review all questions submitted today, and we'll publish those responses on the investor meet company platform. Just before redirecting investors to provide you with their feedback, which I know is particularly important to the company, Bill, could I please just ask you for a few closing comments?

31:28 Yeah. Thank you very much, Lou. Look. Thank you everyone for for listening. We we we are very, very happy to have presented this definitive feasibility study. There's been a tremendous amount of work over the last two years to deliver it. We believe Tauranga is a truly unique asset. It its geology, mineralogy is what differentiates it, and that enables a very low cost operation, low CapEx, and we believe very attractive returns with a lot of upside potential from both TIN price, which we're constructive on, but also from various opportunities to extend the life of this project into the future. So thank you for your participation.

32:19 We'll sign off now. Thank you, Lily. Bill, Tony, thanks for updating investors today. Can I please ask investors not to close this session as you'll now be redirected to provide your feedback in order that the management team can better understand your views and expectations? This will only take a few moments to complete, and I'm sure it'll be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of FIRST TIN PLC, we'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and good morning to you all.

Follow First Tin PLC into a list and get an email when it puts out news.

Latest news releases

Companies on this call

Speakers

Bill Scotting

CEO at FIRST TIN PLC

Tony Truelove

Technical Director at FIRST TIN PLC

More from First Tin PLC