Deutsche Goldmesse Spring 2024 Keynote Presentation With Brien Lundin

0:01 Phenomenal. It is my great pleasure now to introduce our last keynote speaker of the day and he's become a close friend over recent last couple of years actually and we're hosting the Gold Newsletter channel, YouTube channel together. It's Brian London. You might know him. He's the host of the New Orleans Investment Conference. He writes a newsletter, the Gold Newsletter, and Golden Opportunities. Definitely worth following. I'd strongly recommend it. I've been to his conference twice. It was great. I keep saying it to you, I'll say it to everybody. It's one of my favorite conferences to attend. Great connection between macro and micro, meaning you get some great macro speakers talking about the US dollar and what the Fed is doing, but you got the mining companies there as well. I always love going to New Orleans, and I'm extremely excited that Brian is here to give us a bit of an overview of what is gold doing, what is the market doing, what is the Fed doing, Brian? Do you know? Any idea? No. No?

0:49 OK. No, fantastic. Thank you so much. And to Brian, it's your stage. And maybe at the end, we have some time for Q&A. Fantastic. There's a clicker thingy. Beautiful, beautiful. Thank you, Kai. I think my, just to reflect on, yeah, I don't know what's going on. I don't think anybody does. I think I've figured out a few things. The original title for this presentation was, What in the World is Going on with Gold? I think since I turned that title in, we've kind of figured out a bit of what's going on. I don't think we've figured out everything that's going on, but I don't think anyone has either. There's some mystery still involved in this market. I'm going to kind of show you where I think that mystery is. I will alert the front row that I just flew in from New Orleans a few hours ago, so if I start to doze off, just toss some water in my face please, and I'll keep going mid-stride, I hope.

1:45 Who needs a pivot? That's the new title I have. We don't need that pivot because we've done pretty well without it. The pivot was the big catalyst that we were looking for. It seemed inevitable this year. We expected the Fed to cut rates 5 to 6 times this year as of the close of 2023. And reality set in, and that kind of got dialed back to 3 cuts that the Fed thought they were going to have this year. Now there's talk and I think credible talk that there may be no cuts this year. I'm going to show you why they will have to cut at some point, but this is why they don't really We didn't need that catalyst. That catalyst has yet to come into play. That was the big thing we were waiting for, to drive this market. But we've done very well since then. Let's drill in a little bit closer.

2:43 No, I'd go back a little bit. The gold market has done very well. We achieved a all-time high in December, and then we just kept going on. Yet nobody's satisfied with this. We've set new records. I was talking to Claude earlier how at the PDAC conference in March, everybody was saying, and I was as well, we needed to get over 2100, 2150 to show a breakout to generalist investors and they would come in. Well, we did a whole lot better than that. But we don't think the generous investors have really come in. We have not had the kind of reaction that we expected in the gold stocks. That said, if you look at this chart, gold divided by the GDX gold miners index, You see that since we started this move in March, really around the 1st of March, that this ratio of gold to gold mining stocks has been in decline.

3:43 That means that gold mining stocks, gold equities, have been leveraging this gold move. That said, not to the extent that we all would have liked or perhaps expected, but they have been showing leverage. If you drill in on this a little closer and you can see that peak in March where the gold price really took off, this ratio has generally been in decline. A few breaks here and there where gold has outperformed the miners, but they have been providing some leverage. Of course, we have not seen that filter down, further down the food chain to a lot of the companies that are outside these doors and the junior mining market. I think that's going to come but again there's a lot of mystery left in this market.

4:30 Another big theme is that silver has not been leveraging gold as it should. This chart kind of belies that. As you can see, it's been back and forth. This is a chart of the gold price in gold, and that blue line is the gold-silver ratio. When that ratio is falling, silver is outperforming gold. And you can kind of divide this move into 3 stages. Silver outperformed at the beginning, underperformed in the middle, and then outperformed toward the end. The last weeks, a couple of weeks, it's been kind of sideways and not really providing much leverage. And of course, we had that big correction earlier this week. And so it's kind of settled back right now. But silver has done somewhat its job. It has leveraged gold a bit, but again, not as much as we would expect.

5:26 Now here's where we get in some interesting aspects of this market. Gold and treasury yields. This is gold plotted against the 10-year treasury yield, US treasury yield. And you can see that it has a very close correlation. If you look at that bottom panel, that is the rolling 20-day correlation. These 2 indicators should not be correlated positively. They should be inversely correlated. Falling treasury yields are usually bullish for gold. Rising treasury yields are usually bearish for gold. That hasn't been the case for a while. There was a bit of time earlier, or late last year, and I don't think this chart actually goes back that far, where we did see a correlation, and we saw a positive correlation to dollar as well. That was a signal that was late October, early November. We had a reappearance of bond vigilantes that were raising yields outside of the Fed's control.

6:32 I think this is a signal, the fact that rising treasury yields have been actually, not only has gold been indifferent to it, but actually it seems to have turbocharged gold's rally. I think that's a sign of what we're seeing behind this rally and kind of the mysterious forces that are driving it. Similarly, we see gold and real rates. This is obviously very similar to the 10-year yield. In this chart, real rates are inverted. So when the line, the black line, is going down, then yields, real yields, adjusted for inflation, are rising. Now, this is a very long-term chart, and you can see that that correlation, that inverse correlation between real yields and the gold price has been very tight for literally decades.

7:28 We saw a separation in that. That's not just this year, but that's over the last, not just the last few months, but over the last year or so, we've seen that stark separation. Something is different this time, and I know that's something you never wanna hear in investing, that this time is different, because it's a danger sign that you're really not recognizing the lessons of the past. But this time, something is different, and it harkens back more to the 1970s than anything we've seen in recent decades. Gold and the dollar, Again, rising dollar, dollar strength. This is the trade-weighted dollar, the dollar index, the dollar versus other fiat currencies. Typically, a stronger dollar is bearish for gold. That hasn't been the case.

8:15 Gold and the dollar have been rising together in recent months, and that's highly unusual. Again, something's going on here. If we pull back, and I'm gonna explain this a little bit in the succeeding charts, the big picture is that we've entered the end game of a 4 decade plus trend of not just easy money but ever easier money. This chart tells it all. The red line is federal debt but importantly the blue line is the Fed funds rate. What you see in those red lines are the bottoms of each rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve.

9:02 This goes back to the early 1980s when the Fed tried to normalize interest rate policy. And in that environment, normalizing meant dropping it. But as you can see, when they would drop interest rates or they would try to raise them again, and at some point that would be normalization, raising rates. But they couldn't raise rates much before something happened, typically a recession, that would force them to again start cutting rates. So you have a stair-step pattern, ever lower, ever easier on monetary policy. Then they hit the great financial crisis in 2008, and lowering interest rates no longer was enough. The market demanded more. The market had become addicted to ever easier money. They needed more of that monetary drug, that adrenaline, monetary adrenaline to yield the same result.

9:58 So the Fed took rates to 0, left them at 0, came up with quantitative easing and a lot of other programs to rescue the economy. And then they left them at 0 for some period of time, tried to normalize them, then came COVID. And when COVID hit, they had to do again, much more than they did before. So everything that they did in the great financial crisis over 4 to 5 years, they did post COVID over 4 to 5 weeks, in some cases 4 to 5 days. They immediately went to 0 and started pumping money not just into Wall Street, not just into the banking system, but that monetary adrenaline injected directly into the veins of the economy through direct fiscal reform or fiscal payments into bank accounts. We didn't need helicopter money.

10:49 They could just instantly make it appear in your bank accounts, and they did. But what happens when you have this process over decades of ever easier money? This encourages ever greater debt, And that's that red line. That's the federal debt soaring. And we saw similarly debt in commercial debt, and individual debt, private debt. Debt soars when interest rates are always trending lower over the long term. What's happening now is that the Fed is running into a brick wall. These debts were created largely in a low, not just low interest rate environment, but zeroed interest rate environment.

11:35 The lowest interest rates in 5,000 years of human history. During that period, we saw the federal debt double and triple, this is the US federal debt. So if debt rises that much when interest rates are this low, your debt service payments, which this chart kind of shows, don't rise that much if your interest costs are that low or falling. But when those interest payments start to rise, or those interest rates start to rise, the leverage is tremendous. And that's what we see in that blue line. The debt service costs, annual debt service costs, have gone parabolic. They have gotten over a trillion dollars a year and rising.

12:21 Here's the U.S. National debt as of a couple of days ago, 34.7 trillion, essentially. Now, that's a lot, but I would draw your attention to the 2 numbers at the bottom that I've circled. In 1980, when Paul Volcker raised interest rates above the rate of inflation, raised them above 20% to kill off inflation, the federal debt to GDP ratio was about 35%. Now it's 122%. And in recent months or recent quarters, it was as high as 135%. Again, the debt is too large. It's too large for the Fed to keep increasing rates. Not only that, it's too large for the Fed to keep rates at current levels.

13:11 Let's dive into that a little bit. Here is the plot of federal government interest

13:19 expenditures. You can see it's gone absolutely parabolic. It is over a trillion dollars. Now, what is the average rate on US Treasury securities? I used to figure this out myself just by taking the interest paid, dividing it by the debt. But it turns out that the US Treasury has come out with, or had one that I couldn't find, a data series on the average rate paid on US Treasury securities. You can see it's rising fairly rapidly. Right now it's 3.28%. However, the current U.S. Treasury yield curve across the board, across all maturities, is averaging around 5%. And the Fed is resetting this paper and has been issuing paper at the shorter end of the curve. That's not just they take a lot of heat for this. Why didn't you do it at the long end of the curve at those low interest rates? But the fact is, there's not enough demand at the longer end of the curve. That market is not liquid enough. The liquid end of the market is at the shorter end, so they have to issue at the shorter end because there is so much debt.

14:31 That means that this debt resets at higher rate in a shorter period of time. 5% is kind of where everything is right now. And let's look at what that means.

14:46 So if the Fed, this was Samantha LaDuke posted this on X the other day, and it's a great chart. It shows a projection of where the Fed interest payments will be under a couple of different scenarios. The first scenario in that orange line is if they cut by 150 basis points, that's 6 quarter point hikes between now and next year. Nobody's predicting that. That would be a very aggressive rate of rate cuts. But if they did that, if they dropped it by 150 basis points, the interest payments on the federal debt would rise to $1.2 trillion a year. They would continue to rise because all of that debt is still resetting at higher rates. Remember, it's only at 3.28 right now, and everything else is at 5%.

15:37 Now, if they don't do anything, if they stand pat, don't start cutting rates, then that debt service cost rises to 1.7 trillion. Now, when does that start to matter? I think pretty soon, but I thought it would start to matter when they hit $1 trillion. We've heard very little commentary in the markets about that. But this is big. This is essentially not quite doubling the federal deficit each year. If you talk about the federal deficit, they're looking now at a 1 and a half to 2 trillion dollars in the US every year in the federal deficit. That does not account for interest payments. That's another trillion on top of that. And where are they getting that money? Well, don't worry about it. They're just borrowing more to pay the interest on the debt that's already rising.

16:24 So this is essentially a debt spiral in the US. I would caution, though, it's not just the US. This is the situation around the world in developed economies. So this is not just a dollar story. This is a fiat currency story. And that's one of the reasons why I think we're seeing so much buying in gold. So Where are we right now? The US economy has remained remarkably robust, and inflation has been frustratingly sticky. Because of this, it's now possible, if not likely, that there will be no Fed pivot this year. But getting back to the title of my presentation, who needs a pivot?

17:05 Gold gained over $700, over 40%, during what's arguably the harshest Fed hiking cycle ever. This should have been enormously bearish for gold, but gold from bottom to top, from trough to peak, gained over $700 during this period. We don't feel like it did that, but if you look at the long term, that's what happened. That green line is the Fed funds rate during this extremely harsh hiking cycle. And gold stop and start a lot of jags to that line, but it has gained tremendously during this period. So what is it going to do when the Fed actually starts to pivot, it should do even better. And that's where we are. That's that big catalyst in eventual Fed pivot that we have yet to see in this market.

17:59 So why has gold been rising before we even get the first signs of a Fed pivot. Well, one of the key aspects of this has been that Western buying has been absent. We take this hint by the holdings in the GLD ETF, the largest ETF out there, which is typically, or has been, a very good proxy for Western investment demand. And holdings in the ETF have not only not risen, they have fallen, in some cases precipitously, even as the price of gold has been setting new records. So Western investors, at least

18:36 the ones that invest in the ETF, have not been convinced, have not been drawn to this market. However, there is some Western buying, and that's to be found in gold futures on the ComEx. This is more speculative buying. This is typically hedge fund, hot money buying. You can see that the volumes, that's the green bars at the bottom, have been expanding in ComEx Gold. So they have been reacting and following the price up. But this is hotter money. This is not necessarily the kind of money you like to see. You would like to see more in the ETF. It's a little bit stickier. But interestingly, curiously, it's been falling or been stagnant. So where has the real buying been coming from?

19:24 Well, central banks to a large degree. 2022 saw the largest level of central bank buying ever. And then 2023 was just a tad behind it, still very strong. If you look at the flows, that central bank buying started right around the spring of 2022, which coincidentally, or not coincidentally, was when the US started levying sanctions on Russia, started weaponizing the dollar. So this central bank buying seems very likely to be a reaction to the weaponization of the dollar, a desire from central banks to gain independence from the dollar

20:13 and the type of actions that the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Has been doing to weaponize that. Now, it's not just central bank buying in general. It has been specifically China to a large degree. This is a chart by Jan Nieuwenhuis, who is, I think, the leading analyst of global gold flows out there, really encourage you to follow him. And he has estimated, really done the best estimates, I think, of People's Bank of China buying and domestic demand in China. Now China in 2023, the Central Bank of China, the PBOC, bought around 750 tons of gold itself. And that's out of the 1150 or so that was bought. That's a tremendous level of buying from China to further its strategic objectives, which I think very simply are to gain independence from the dollar.

21:16 That isn't all, though. We've had tremendous net gold imports into China. Yan estimates that domestic demand, citizens buying in China in 2023, was on the order of 11 or 1,200 tons of gold. Now you add that on to the central bank, and you have somewhere over 2,000, 2,100 tons or so of gold buying from China alone. That's about 2 thirds of annual gold production going to China alone. Now why are the Chinese citizens buying? They typically don't, by the way. Here's another example. This is monthly gold withdrawals from the SGE, the Shanghai Gold Exchange in China. In January, it hit the second highest level. It's tapered off a bit, but we're still getting very hot imports.

22:12 This is why the Chinese citizens are buying. Basically, their real estate market and their stock market is in the dumps. It's not performing. And gold is. And gold offers this security from what they also perceive to be oncoming fiscal and monetary relief from the Chinese Central Bank. So they see inflation, they see other markets not working, they're pouring the money into gold hand over fist. And this has really been driving it. Now, we have not seen that kind of reaction in the mining equities. Here's a long-term chart of gold miners relative to gold. This is the gold mining index divided by the gold price. So this kind of works, it does work oppositely to what I was showing. When the line is trending down, gold miners are underperforming. And as you can see, going back to the 1990s, we have rarely been at these levels. So gold miners are extremely undervalued.

23:16 There will be a big snapback effect. That snapback effect will be mitigated somewhat by the fact that there's been a lot of shares issued in a lot of these mining companies since then, so greater share dilution, mining costs have soared, Inflation hits those big yellow trucks and the diesel that goes into them as much as anything else. So their costs of production have soared. That said, wherever the mining company's ASIC was 2 or 3 months ago, at whatever level that was and they were still making money, it's about $300 higher today. So those numbers are going to start to come out and that's what we're going to see, realize in the share prices of some of these companies.

24:04 What's the potential here? Long-term real gold, if you go back to the $850 high in 1980, adjust it in today's dollars, it's about $3,354. Just the August 2020 high is 2442, close to where we were just not long ago. So we have big upside potential to equal in current dollars what we've seen before. But let's look at the real potential here. As gold has been around, obviously, for 5,000 years or so, interestingly, it's only been about 53 years that it's been an investable asset. Before that it was money.

24:52 So over that long history we only have gold as an investment asset about 5 decades worth of history. In that period I divided up into 3 separate bull markets, 1970 to 1974, and gold went up about 5.6 times in that period from trough to peak. From 1976 to 1980, it went up 8.2 times. In the 2000s it went up 7.5 times from trough to peak. The trough for this move is $1,040. So if we're saying that this is going to be like those previous 3 bull markets, then we can roughly gauge it should go up 6 or 7 times in value, 6 or 7 times that low of a little bit above $1,000.

25:43 So that's what we're looking at now in this market. That's the kind of potential we're looking for. Bottom line, this gold market was kicked off by central bank and Chinese buying. The center of gravity, the pricing for gold has shifted from west to east. There are signs of growing unease over the US and global debt situation. This is where I think a lot of the buying that we can't quite pin down is coming from. Just unease over this huge debt situation And the reality that we can't service debts with interest rates at current levels. So something's brewing out there, and I think that's what's being sensed by the people who are buying gold right now. We still have the catalyst of a Fed pivot ahead, and then other central banks following the Fed lead.

26:33 Only the timing and degree remain in question. It's going to happen. It has to happen because we're piling on debt in terms of debt service costs in the meantime. Gold did very well during the hiking cycle. It should do spectacularly well during the cutting cycle. This is a generational opportunity. We haven't seen this kind of an opportunity, particularly in the equities, since the early 2000s. So I suggest you take advantage of it. That's all I have. You can find me at goldnewsletter.com, New Orleans Investment Conference in November, neworelandsconference.com. Check it out, we have wonderful speakers. It's an incredible experience. And you can find me on Twitter slash x at Brian underscore London.

27:22 So how much time do we have for questions? We've got as much as we need. That's it. We'll just eat into the- Keep standing up straight. We'll eat into the open bar. A little bit. A little bit. Let's start, you have a question. Well, We all agree here that gold miners are extremely undervalued. You've analyzed a huge number of gold mines, and here there are some many really great companies. Do you have any favorites in here? Oh, god. Claude. Oops. You're supposed to alert me to that before you tell me. You're supposed to say Victoria Gold. Yeah, I'm supposed to say that too, right. And a number of these companies are in here, so I'm not gonna create any enemies before the open bar closes and somebody has to buy me a beer.

28:11 Let me tell you, you can testify that Gold Newsletter is the best value in investment publishing, and everybody should subscribe, and our full portfolio is on there. I would agree. Thank you. And his conference is great. Thank you, sir. I appreciate that. I will pay you later for that. Give me some time, and if you come up to me, I can come up with some names if you come up to me individually, but there's a lot of opportunities. It's a target-rich environment right now. There's some wonderful companies right outside those doors. Delta Resource? Which one? Delta. Delta's a good one. That's a recent recommendation of mine as well. You were going to get your book out somehow, weren't you? OK.

28:57 Fantastic. Do we have any more questions? Because I have a couple. We have 1 over here. Yeah, I'm really interested not only in the shares of the gold companies but in the gold price itself. It turned to be out in the last few months especially that we have really rises and drops substantially, $100, $200 a day, sometimes even in an hour. In the gold price? In the gold price. Yeah. I don't think we've had quite that much. We've had a $60 drop the other day. Well, we have had one time we had a hundred dollar swing during the... Yes, okay. Yeah, it's increased. Forces in the market that really push up and really take a stop and push it down again.

29:55 So there are big sides on both sides. And I'm really questioning, This couldn't be the Chinese people that buy gold. There may be the underlying reason, but there must be money, big money who is... Positioning, right. Big money allocations. That is true. And that's one of the things I've been talking about. Ross Norman of Metals Daily has been talking a bit about that. He's talking about the OTC market. More gold is traded privately over the counter market. It seems like we've been able to track a good bit of that to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which is cash settled, not like the SGE, which is physically settled. And there has been some speculation from China or Asia in general on that exchange that has kind of driven that. But I think there's still more. I think you're right, there's still more. Now that volatility is normal. What happened before that was not normal.

30:54 That being an unrelenting rise, just keep going without a break, that was huge buying pressure. And I think that's one of the reasons why the equities really didn't perform as well as we would have thought of, for really 2 reasons. 1, that rise was stunning and shocking. People felt, well, it's going to come back at some point, let it take it, get a better entry price, I'll buy it on the dip, which didn't happen until the later stages of what we've seen so far. The other factor is we didn't really understand why the gold price was rising. If you don't understand why it's rising, you don't understand how long it's going to last or have any feeling for how long it's You don't know what the legs are in that market.

31:40 If we had a recession or we had a financial crisis that we could look ahead and say, we're gonna have 2 years of bad rate cuts, everybody would have piled in because you could see the fundamental trend that was gonna support it. We didn't know where this buying was coming from. We still don't know. I don't think anybody knows Because I think it's probably more broad based than we're giving it credit for. For those reasons, the debt situation, I mean, we're not seeing it in the headlines in the financial media. You don't see that debt service cost issue in the Financial Times, on CNBC, The Economist. But smart people, like you all, of course, are seeing this. And that's where I think why I think a lot of money is being allocated to gold.

32:28 I'm a little worried, but I'm going to give the microphone back to Claude here. In a bull, the signature of a bull market is to have very sharp, quick drawdowns. That's the signature of bull. So normally, big drawdowns is an added proof that we're in the real bull market. That's what you see in most bull markets, commodities, or stocks.

32:55 Do we have any more questions? I have 1 or 2 for you, Brian, as well, before we call it a day. Simon. This is for the retail gold investors. We're all converted gold investors, unless I'm mistaken. How do we go about converting other people? Listen, I say this because I meet a lot of intelligent people who invest, and You try and say, hey, have you seen the debt curve or whatever? Yeah. And they're kind of, I call it, they're spoiled for choice of investments. You can find your phone, you can bet on a horse, bet on a crap coin, or whatever. So what would your message be to someone like me and ask to help spread the word. Maybe take a lesson from the Bitcoin maxis. They seem to do a good job of promoting. But it does have a religious tinge to it. Gold does, crypto does, a lot of these do.

33:46 There's a fervor of the converted, as it were. I think, in my conference, I've seen some really brilliant people, absolute geniuses, talk about a debt bomb blowing up for 4 decades, and it's never happened. And now I look at the numbers and I say, you know, am I getting old enough to become a curmudgeon that I think the world's going to hell and is that happening psychologically in my brain or do the numbers just say that? And I think the numbers say that. It's simple math. And I think what you tell people is a couple of things. You point to that simple math and say, this is unsustainable. We're going to have to have not only rate cuts in the near future, but that debt's not going to go away without significant depreciation of the underlying currencies.

34:33 And that's the kind of a trend that lasts not months or years, it lasts decades, and will have to. We can never, because debt has been built up so high, we can never have sustained periods of positive real rates anymore. The rate of currency depreciation has to be greater than the rate of interest that you're paying on the debt or the whole house of cards falls off. So that's the fundamental foundation. Then I think you tell people that this is a wonderful area to speculate in because it's inefficient. It is, if you're willing to go in and do the legwork and spend the money going to conferences, buying the best newsletters, talking to management, doing your research, you can find these gems that other people are just walking right over, these values that get temporarily left behind.

35:24 And it's a lot of fun, too. I mean, it's the whole thing of discovery and the whole romance of that involved as well, which is why we don't tend to sell some of these stocks when we should. But yeah, I think that's a start. Okay, one last one. John, go ahead.

35:47 I'm curious if you know the answer to this question. I think you said China imported 1,100 tons of gold last year. I think I saw yesterday that they produced 700 tons of gold in 1 year. How is the gold that companies like Xinjin mine abroad accountable? Is that some of the imports? China is. Yeah, no, it isn't. China does not export gold. Yeah, and Russia either. And For instance, in Russia, a gold producer has to sell its production to the Russian Central Bank. That's a wonderful thing because all the Russian, the chairwoman of the Russian Central Bank has to do is print up some rubles to buy gold. Great trade.

36:42 Kind of the same thing is happening in China, But most of, if not all, the gold production, I believe, in China goes to the Shanghai Gold Exchange and is reflected with the withdrawals. But China is the world's largest gold consumer and producer. It is the great gold sink. Much like India is, a lot of people don't realize, India is the world's great silver sink, China is the world's great gold sink. But I believe that most of that production is reflected through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. And it's a great question for, for Jan, and, and you can ask him on Twitter as well. I've invited him out to Doja Goat Messe, but he doesn't travel. He does not travel. I've invited him. I've had him virtually at my conference, but Yeah, he doesn't travel. He's a brilliant guy, though. Absolutely. Fantastic. Brian, I'm going to save my 2 questions for our interview tomorrow, and that you can find on our YouTube channel, sort of financially. Great self-promotion.

37:40 Right? I just figured that one out, actually. So I was sitting here, I was like, ah, people want to have beer and wine. So I'm just going to save those questions for tomorrow. But Brian, anybody else like any last question, one last one? Fantastic, Brian. Thank you so much for making the trip all the way from New Orleans. Thank you all.