British American Tobacco P.L.C. (LSE:BATS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 Good morning, everyone. I'm delighted to welcome you to our 2026 interim results presentation. With me this morning is Javed Iqbal, interim CFO and Victoria Buxton, group head of investor relations. I will begin with our transformation highlights. Javed will then take you through our financial results in more detail. Finally, I will return to talk more about our performance outlook and why we are confident in the pathway ahead given the clear momentum we are building. We will then take your questions. With that, I'd like to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide two and three.

0:50 Let's begin by looking at our transformation momentum. Starting with some highlights from h one. Smokeless now represents 19.8% of group revenue, up 160 basis points versus last year. We added 4,100,000 smokeless consumers over the last twelve months, taking the total to 35,000,000. This progress is mainly driven by modern auto industry growth where the strength of the Vilo brand continues to resonate strongly with consumers. Our first half results were in line with expectations, supported by a strong multi category delivery in The US, excellent Villa momentum across all three regions, and the resilient combustibles performance in The US and The AME.

1:49 Our disciplined focus on quality growth continues to improve returns through more targets investments with new category contribution up 55% at constant rates. As previously guided, we expect adjusted profit from operations to accelerate in H2, driven by improvements in EMEA and APMEA. Our second half weighting will also benefit from the phasing of future win savings. Finally, we continue to generate strong cash returns. We expect to be within our two to 2.5 times target leverage corridor by year end, while continuing to reward our shareholders with our progressive dividends and £1,300,000,000 share buyback in 2026.

2:41 I'm encouraged by the momentum we are building as we transform BAT. New categories are becoming an increasingly meaningful contributor to group performance, reinforcing our confidence in sustainable delivery moving forward. After a period of investment and transition, returning to our algorithm for the full year is an important milestone. It reflects the progress we have made in reshaping the business and provides a stronger foundation for long term value creation. With that, I will hand over to Javed, who will take you through our financial performance in more detail.

3:34 Thank you, Tadeo, and good morning everyone. I'm pleased to share that we delivered results in line with expectations on a constant currency basis. This performance was mainly driven by strong U. S. Multi category delivery and the acceleration in new category growth. Our reported results reflect some adjusting items, the majority of which are non cash, including approximately GBP 800,000,000 primarily reflecting annual amortization of our U. S. Trademarks, a GBP $370,000,000 one off adjustments related to Fit to Win, which around GBP $230,000,000 is non cash, and GBP 149,000,000 credit following the settlement of historical litigation.

4:21 To give you a clear view of our underlying performance, I will focus on constant currency adjusted and where relevant adjusted for Canada metrics. You can find further detail on adjusting items and share data in the appendix. We continue to build momentum in the first half reinforcing our confidence in delivering our full year guidance. Group revenue increased by 2.9%. Adjusted gross profit rose 3.8%. Adjusted profit from our operations grew 3.5%. And adjusted diluted EPS was up 7.9%. Let's now turn to new categories.

5:06 Revenue growth accelerated to 18%, driven by an other outstanding performance from Modern Oral, which was up 66%. Vapor revenue increased 5.3%, driven by The US, where we returned to double digit volume and revenue growth. This was partially offset by a decline in heated products, with Glow revenue down nearly 12%, impacted by inventory movements and competitive intensity in the value segment. We continue to deliver quality growth, with gross profit up over £120,000,000 and category contribution up 55% reaching £269,000,000.

5:51 This reflects our disciplined approach to investment and increasing scale benefits. We remain committed to investing behind profitable growth in vapor and heated products. Specifically, where we are becoming increasingly selective, where we deploy our resources, which Tadeo will talk more about later. Now turning to combustibles. Combustible volumes was down 4.7%, with growth in Pakistan and Turkey more than offset by continued industry volume decline in other key markets. And the impact of market exits in Cuba and Mozambique. Revenue grew 2.1% driven by robust price mix of 6.8%. Growth in The US and AME more than offset a slower than expected recovery in APMEA as fiscal and regulatory pressure persist.

6:46 Adjusted gross profit and category contribution both grew ahead of revenue driven by a strong performance in The US, positive price mix and our continued focus on cost optimization. Combustible remains a powerful value engine for the group, delivering robust returns and continuing to fund our transformation. Our resilient performance reflects the breadth of our global footprint, the strength of our portfolio and disciplined execution. Turning to our regions, starting with The US. We delivered a strong multi category performance, driving total revenue up 8.5% and adjusted operating profit up 10.1%.

7:33 New category revenue increased by nearly 60%, driven by continued success of Velo Plus which grew more than 200% and Vues which returned to double digit volume and revenue growth. In combustibles, revenue grew 5% driven by robust price mix including the benefits of excise duty drawback and positive trade inventory movements. Value share declined by 40 basis points and volume share was down 80 basis point, reflecting continued industry growth in deep discount segment and heightened competitive activity since Q4 last year. We have actively responded to this trend, investing behind our portfolio and further strengthening our commercial execution.

8:21 As a result, we have held our volume share since January. Looking into the second half, we expect an acceleration of investment to support the launch of Veelo Max and Vuse Flavor Pots as well as behind our combustible portfolio in a highly dynamic market. Tadeo will talk about this in more detail later. In addition, we expect our strong H1 growth to moderate in H2 as positive inventory moments do not repeat and we lap a stronger comparator. In AME, total revenue growth 0.9% with combustible up 2.5% and new category up 1.9%. This was partially offset by lower direct leaf sales, reflecting our continued focus on higher return, more profitable areas.

9:13 Combustible revenues was driven by strong delivery in Brazil, Turkey and Mexico and robust pricemix. This was partially offset by our exit from Cuba and increased competitive pressures in Germany and Romania, where we have taken targeted actions to strengthen our portfolio. In new categories, modern oral revenue was up 22%, driven by the strength of our portfolio across both established oral markets in Scandinavia and newer growth markets including UK and Poland, which now account for around 50% of our modern OLED revenue in the region. Heated product revenue declined by nearly 11%. Growth in Romania and Portugal was more than offset by lower revenue in Italy and Poland, due to heightened competitive activity in the value segment.

10:08 Looking ahead, we expect to strengthen our value proposition with the next generation Hyper Pro Plus in the second half of the year. We are also encouraged by the continued momentum of Glo Hilo, which is performing well in the premium segment. Vapour revenue declined 14%, mostly impacted by regulatory changes in Poland, as we continue to focus our investment on larger industry value pools. Adjusted operating profit increased 1.1% supported by continued resilience in combustibles and quality growth in Velo and Vuz. This was partially offset by investments in heated product behind our innovations rollout. We expect performance to accelerate in H two, driven by our targeted commercial actions and the benefit of the rollout of new category innovations.

11:04 Turning to APMEA, where our recovery has been slower than expected. Revenue was down 6.3%, primarily driven by combustibles. While we continue to drive growth in key markets including Pakistan and Indonesia, this was more than offset by the challenging regulatory environment and the impact of illicit volume in Bangladesh and Australia. Alongside the timing of inventory movements in Vietnam, modern oral revenue increased by 43%, driven by our first mover advantage and category leadership across emerging growth markets. These include Japan, Pakistan, South Africa and global travel retail, highlighting the increasing opportunity for the category and for Velo.

11:53 Heated product revenue declined 13% impacted by material inventory movements and heightened competitive intensity in the value segment in Japan. Encouragingly, Glo Hilo continues to build momentum in the premium segment. And with Hyper Pro Plus launching in Japan in q three, we expect an improving share performance in h two. Vapor revenue declined 28%, reflecting strategic market exits and more selective resource allocation. Adjusted profit declined 16.5%, mainly due to headwinds in key combustible markets. Looking ahead, we expect further sequential performance recovery in h two, supported by our commercial actions and investments in both combustibles and new category, and a softer comparator in Australia.

12:50 Turning now to our group operating margin, which was up 30 basis point to 43.7%. We successfully offset inflationary pressures with a strong performance, higher profitability in new categories and continued cost savings. At current rates, operating margin expanded by 10 basis point. We are making good progress with Fit to Win, our transformation program to build a leaner, faster and more data driven BAT. We have identified a further £100,000,000 of optimization savings resulting in an incremental one off £100,000,000 cash investment to support delivery. In addition, to further drive new category growth, we have also completed a comprehensive review of our manufacturing assets and machinery.

13:42 Through this, we have identified opportunities to upgrade to more efficient, next generation technologies and state of the art machinery to support future growth and productivity and to accelerate our transformation. As a result, we have recognized a non cash charge of nearly £230,000,000 in the first half. Altogether, we now expect £700,000,000 of annualized savings by 2028, with £500,000,000 to be delivered by 2027. Total one off costs are now £950,000,000 with $840,000,000 to be treated as adjusting. We continue to expect the majority of the cost to be incurred this year with balance in 2027.

14:31 Bringing it all together, earning per share increased by 7.9%, as growth in operating profit was supported by 4.4% growth from earning kickers. This outperformance was primarily driven by lower net finance cost reflecting repayment of debt with proceeds from the partial disposal of ITC stake in May last year and higher operating cash conversion in H1. Looking at to the full year, we now expect net finance cost to be around 1,650,000,000 Pounds with an underlying tax rate between 2425%. As a result, we have upgraded our full year EPS guidance with earning kickers expected to be moderate as we annualize the benefit of lower debt levels.

15:23 Strong cash generation continues to enhance our financial flexibility and support disciplined capital allocation. We remain on track to be within our two to 2.5 times leverage target range by year end and to deliver more than £50,000,000,000 of free cash flow by 2030. We continue to focus on our capital allocation priorities, which are investing in transformation, balance deleveraging with progressive dividend and sustainable share buybacks and selective bolt on M and A to support our transformation. To summarize, H1 was in line with expectations and we are on track to return to our mid term algorithm for the full year, with profit second half weighted.

16:11 Key drivers for h two include mid teens new category revenue growth led by Velo and VUSE driving a further improvement in new category contribution. An acceleration in performance in AME, further sequential recovery in APMEA and strong H1 US growth moderating due to increased investment, lapping a stronger comparator and as positive inventory moments do not repeat. We expect H two performance to be further supported by the positive phasing of Fit to Win benefits. As previously guided, we expect revenue and operating profit to be at the lower end of this range for the full year, absorbing around 1% transactional FX headwind and reflecting active investment choices including the rollout of VeloMax and VUSE flavors in The US, scaling Glo Hilo and Hyper Pro Plus launches, as well as increased combustible investment in The US and other key markets.

17:15 And finally, we now expect full year EPS growth to be towards the middle of our five to 8% range. Thank you. And with that, I'll hand back to today. Thank you, Javed. Looking ahead, I'm encouraged by the momentum we are building as we return to our algorithm and continue to transform BAT. We are entering the next phase of our journey from a position of strength with accelerating financial delivery, increasing new category profitability, and a clear pathway to long term growth and value creation. With that context, I want to share more detail on our progress, looking at the topics we get asked about most by you, our investors.

18:04 Starting with the sustainability of our multi category delivery in The US. Across the market, nicotine consumer behavior is changing in a significant way. BAT is fully aligned to where these consumers are heading with our unique mood category portfolio of number one or number two share positions across all categories. As a result, we are now the fastest growing company in total nicotine. Our total nicotine volume share increased by 110 basis points year to date, fueled by new categories. With Velo driving around 90% share of modern auto value growth and views delivering over a 100% share of vapor value growth.

18:59 My message here is clear. We believe we are the best position to win in total nicotine and continue to capture value in the world's largest nicotine value pool. I will now take you through The US by category. Starting with combustibles where we continue to balance discipline investment with sustainable value creation. Industry volume continue to improve in the first half, declining 4.9% on a sales to retail basis. This was supported by moderating solar's consumption decline trends, slowing outflow to illicit vapor supported by regulatory enforcement actions, and the expansion of deeper discount into track channels, which we expect the industry to lap in the second half.

19:56 Our focus remains on driving value and share from our combustibles business. And we continue to deliver strong financial performance in h one as Javed highlighted. Against this backdrop, we have seen heightened competitive activity from q four last year. We have already taken actions to further sharpen our portfolio management, strengthen our route to market and leverage digital revenue growth management capabilities. In addition, we have been actively investing to strength our portfolio and we are starting to see encouraging results. Target investments have been supporting Newport in premium and we have also been strengthening Camel.

20:46 Together, Luxstrike and Pall Mall select continue to drive both volume and value share gains in branded value, which combined with expanding our Dural brand coverage to five states is strengthening our presence and competitiveness at the low end of the market. As a result, we have held our volume share since January and we will continue to actively invest behind our portfolio in the second half. Second, I'm often asked about the regulatory enforcement landscape in The US. And I'm pleased that we are starting to see recent actions having an impact on irresponsible illicit operators, while also providing responsible legal manufacturers a pathway to bringing scientifically backed products to market.

21:42 We are now seeing multiple governance government measures beginning to address the long standing balance between the legal market and illicit operators. First, around half of vapour industry volume is now covered by state directory and enforcement frameworks. Second, more than 18,000,000 unauthorized vapor products have been seized through federal cost agents collaboration. Third, the FDA is taking actions to improve regulatory compliance for foreigner manufacturers. And finally, attorney generals continue to increase pressure on illicit vapour sales channels and payment providers. Importantly, these actions have supported the legal vapor industry return to growth in H1.

22:32 We are also encouraged by the FDA's new prioritization guidance, which supports a pathway for both vapor flavors and modern oral innovation. Taken together, these developments support a more level playing field. In US vapor, VEWS continues to strength its leadership position. We extended value share to a record 55.9% in the first half and now hold more than double the share of our nearest competitor. Building on this leadership, we will begin a phased rollout of new audit focus views flavors, broadening consumer choice and leveling the competitive playing field starting in q three with distribution to approximately 25,000 outlets.

23:27 We will execute this expansion in a disciplined manner, upholding our high standards of product quality, retailer compliance and underage assets prevention. Distribution will be carefully target as we work with retailers to secure their commitment to audit only sales supporting category sustainability. Altogether, this give us confidence in Infuze's ability to sustain growth and further strengthen its competitive advantage in the world's largest vapor market. Third, I'm often asked about the growth opportunity ahead in modern oral globally. In The US, I'm excited about expanding our Villa portfolio in the rapidly growing markets.

24:18 Vuelo Plus continues to deliver an outstanding performance with our overall modern oral volume share now 31 and value share nearly 26%. In addition, we are capturing around 90% of category value growth, demonstrating both the strength of the product and brand together with the effectiveness of our commercial execution. Building on this success, we are expanding the Velo portfolio to capture a broader range of other consumer preference, including launching some limited editions Velo plus variants. And starting Q3, we will launch Villa Max, a higher moisture product and our latest innovation in The US.

25:06 This will further expand our offer across two new strengths and four new flavors, complementing our existing portfolio and providing an incremental lever of growth. Villa is the clear global number one brand in modern oral. The fastest growing category with the lowest risk profile. We continue to expand Velo's footprint as regulatory clarity improves with 32 markets having now adopted category regulation, more than double the number versus twenty twenty four. Our clear leadership position continues to strength, underpinned by strong growth across all three regions and the successful execution of our premiumization and innovation strategy.

25:58 Our scale advantage continues to widen. In the first half, BAT shipped 7,900,000,000 pouches. And across our top markets, our modern oral volume share increased by over eight percentage points to reach 39%. As the category continues to grow at pace, we believe our superior product portfolio supported by continuous innovation, scale, brand strength and regulatory capabilities will become increasingly important competitive advantage. In AME, BAT is clear category leader with 62% volume share across top markets, making us nearly seven times larger than our nearest competitor.

26:49 This leadership position is underpinned by our superior brand equity scores, 40% higher than our closest competitor in Europe, supporting our premium brand positioning and reflected in our 68.5% value share. We continue to drive strong volume led revenue growth and importantly, this growth is becoming increasingly broad based. Around 50% of our revenue comes from outside The Nordics, where the category continues to develop with growing incidence and consumption, supported by expanded distribution, growing category adoption and the strength of the Vilo brand. Innovation remains a key differentiator.

27:34 Through Velo Shift, we are extending our premium positioning. Progress in Sweden and Switzerland is encouraging, with Shift capturing 1% of value share in Sweden and 1.5 in Switzerland within a few months of launch. Altogether, our strong momentum give us confidence in our ability to continue driving sustainable profitable growth and value creation in modern oral. Fourth, I'm asked about our key drivers of performance improvement in heated products. We are resetting Glo's performance with a sharper, more disciplined approach. Industry volume growth moderated further in the first half, reflecting excise driven disruption in Japan and continued consumer power usage across vapor and increasingly modern auto globally.

28:25 At the same time, competitive intensity has stepped up. Against this backdrop, we are focusing our investments where we see the strongest consumer opportunity and the best return potential in what remains a significant £9,000,000,000 value pool. We are scaling Glowheelo to build premium growth and strengthening our value proposition with Hyper Pro Plus. In addition, we are concentrating resource behind priority markets in a more selective way. Through this, our focus is clear. We set our performance and we build share momentum in h two through innovation led growth and disciplined execution. Glowheel is becoming is beginning to demonstrate the benefits of our premiumization strategy.

29:16 Launched across nine target markets covering around 70% of industry volume, this provides a strong platform for future scale with around half of consumers new to the Globe platform. In addition, we are strengthening Globe's brand equity as we establish our presence in the premium segment. This is translating to tangible commercial progress with volume share increasing across key markets and particularly strong momentum in Poland. We continue to focus on scaling Glo Hilo through generating trial, targeting consumers of premium combustibles and heated products while building awareness to unlock further growth. And finally, bringing it all together.

30:03 As we build on our momentum, we see a clear pathway to improve its growth in 2027. Our delivery will be supported by four key drivers. First, continued strong new category revenue growth led by continued momentum in modern oral, U. S. Led vapour delivery and a more targeted approach in heated products. Second, consistent combustibles delivery supported by further recovery in APMEA and target investment to sustainably drive combustibles value and share globally. Third, continued strong profit conversion, reflecting improving new category returns and ongoing cost savings.

30:49 And fourth, EPS accretion from share buybacks, lower finance costs and continued strong cash generation. To conclude, by focusing investment on our highest return opportunities, we are delivering quality growth through our multi category portfolio supported by sharper execution, enhanced capabilities, and disciplined resource allocation. Through this, we are driving higher returns and building a more resilient business. At the same time, we are enhancing financial flexibility, enabling continued investment in our transformation together with delivering strong cash returns. And I'm confident in our strategy, our execution and that BAT is well positioned to deliver long term value for our shareholders.

31:40 Before we move to Q and A, let me leave you with some of the key teams shaping BATS next phase of growth and value creation. We look forward to sharing more at our Capital Markets Day in September. Thank you for listening. And I will now hand over to Victoria to introduce the questions and answer session. Thank you today and Javed and good morning everyone. If you've joined us via the webcast, you can type your questions directly into the online question box. Tadeo and Javed will be very happy to take your questions.

32:30 And I will now hand over to the conference call operator. Thank you. The first question is from Andrei Anton Yonita from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Hi. Good morning, Tadeo, Javed and Victoria. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Two for me, please. Firstly, on U. S. E vapor, do you see the illicit enforcement tailwind continuing into early H2? And also for the launch of Vuz Ultra in H2, could you give us a bit more color as to what we should expect in terms of number of outlets targeted and the types of flavors that we should expect to see on the market? And then on U. S. Combustibles, you registered plus 5% top line growth in H1, significantly ahead of the U. S. Combustibles framework of value flat to plus 1% growth. How should we think in the context of this H1 performance about the U. S. Combustibles algo for the full year 2026? Thank you very much. Okay. Thank you, Andre, for the question. I'll start with the combustible numbers.

33:35 Yes, you rightly point out that the 5% performance in H1 is well ahead of what the algorithm would suggest. We highlight the fact that we had some trade movements that has been beneficial in H1 that will be unwinding H2. I will tell you that these are great for something close to 2% of the five. If you saw underlying performance actually is a is a is more of a of a 3%. Clearly, we we have a momentum in the H one. Duty clawback is part of the 3%, but it's not a major part of it. Most of the performance is organic performance.

34:20 Let's put in that way. Obviously, as we highlighted in the presentation, we intend to invest continue to invest behind our portfolio as we progress in the second half of the year. We are clearly seeing the dynamic of the low discount segment in The U. S. Continue to grow and we will try to become more competitive in that space as well. So you I would expect to see a more moderate performance in the second half of the year, particularly in combustible in The U. S. That should reflect in a number that would be much closer to the argument, maybe a bit is still higher than the zero to one that we have, but not as high as we see in the first half of the year. So that's the combustible part.

35:11 The on the vapor part is very encouraging. What we are seeing from the states enforcement is 50% is the first time that we saw the legal vapor market coming back on a very modest base, but it's still we have seen the last few years a decline of legal markets year after year. We it's hard to predict exactly what happens next. I would suggest without the initiatives that I highlight during the presentation that we could expect to see at least a similar type of environment. I don't think that will be, I would say, significant. I'm more encouraged by the by the prioritization guidance from the FDA because these allow the legal American manufacturers to offer substantiated high quality products for all those nicotine smokers in The US.

36:14 And these translates into our ability to bring back flavors in the market and and having a more level playing field. Because you cannot forget the fact that from one side, there is an element of enforcement that is important. And and and there is clearly mainly from the state levels, an uptick on enforcement levels. But the root cause of illegality is not just about a lack of inform is about a lack of level playing field. And and having a higher level playing field is will be also very important. So I would expect to to continue to see some more traction from the legal paper market. In terms of your question on how we roll out Yes. How we roll out?

37:00 We mentioned that that would be basically in two phase. We are we are in Q3 will be reaching out 25,000 outlets. And why we are doing that way? Because we have been very thoughtful in the way that we are rolling out flavors back in the market. We want to make sure that retailers do the the ID scan before they sell the product to make sure that we have no you for assessing this product. There is a commitment and and their compliance methodology that we have put in place. And that's the reason we are very thoughtful in the way that we are rolling this out. So the idea should go in the q three with 25,000. In q four, there is another round of 25 thousands, but we will be building from there. Okay?

37:51 Thank you. The next question is from Faham Baig from UBS. Please go ahead. Good morning, team. Thank you for taking my questions, as well. A couple from me as well. Starting with nicotine pouches, in The U. S, could you maybe help us with the the speed of launching VeloMax in terms of the distribution stores as well as the likely economics compared to Velo Plus. And and and and and and, of course, you've now seen competition launching their their own improved versions of nicotine pouch products.

38:41 How have you seen this impacting competitive and category dynamics thus thus far? The second question is is is on full year '26 guidance. May maybe if you could just help elaborate on on some of the moving parts that you expect to see in in the second half in terms of how how the 2.9% organic sales growth develops. What what could maybe see it do better? What could maybe see it do worse? And what are the key key key items that you're gonna be monitoring? Okay. Okay, Faham. Look, on the nicotine pouch, we are well, we have a very well established network from Villa Plus in The US.

39:29 It's we'll be launching Villa Max in that and it's just a question of the normal time that takes to distribute in a continental country like The US. So this will be, know, probably faster than what took us to do in terms of Velo plus because we have now a well established network that was not necessarily the case when we first introduced Vilo Plus. But take some time to get to where we are with Vilo Plus. But the idea is to use Vilo Max as a complement to Vilo Plus. And and commercially speaking, we are we'll be, you know, considering our competitors position obviously. And then and we want to make the product as competitive as product, give the chance for consumers to try the product. We believe that is an even enhanced product. But like I said, it has a higher moisture and different strengths and not necessarily a a very diff is is it will be I think that we'll be addressing some consumer needs that not necessarily Villa Plus is currently positioned for when we think about, for example, higher levels of strengths and obviously also different flavors. That's the reason why we say that distinct flavors will complement their portfolio.

40:54 We feel very, very, I would say, support optionally are very, very supportive of Vilo, very good about the product that we have in the market. It is a competitive market. Obviously, there is no doubt that would become more competitive. We see the strength of Velo plus supporting all these new launch from competition. And I do believe that there will be still I will still be a very strong brand. We are now leaders in 11 states in The US. And so we have a retention rates of 7%. This hasn't changed.

41:39 They are all the growth of the category to basically in the first half is coming from Villa Plus. Independent of the launch that we have seen so far, I do believe that we have all it takes with the capabilities we have built and the product that we have and now complemented by Villa Max, all the conditions support the position that we have in the markets. So in terms of the building blocks for the second half of the year, And obviously, APMEA, we expect to be better performance in the second half than in the first half. It's clearly a recovery story. H one twenty twenty six for APMEA was already better than the H two twenty twenty five.

42:26 H 02/2026 will be better than H one twenty twenty six because we will be lapping more softer comparative if you want in place like Australia, for example. If you remember well, they implement a very draconian regulation that accelerates financially. They elicit trading Australia in the second half of last year will be lapping that. So this will be more positive. So clearly, there will be the driver for the second half. And that's why we say that second half weighted mainly because of the performance at EMEA. AME, we have been investing heavily behind mainly combustible and HP. And we expect also to have some improvement in the second half.

43:12 And in The U. S, we just spoke about The U. S. So I don't expect the 5% to carry on in combustible for the rest of the year. And because of the investments we need to do in portfolio of combustible. And all in all, that's the reason why I expect a more positive second half overall for the group and leading to a full year in terms of top line in the low end of our range. You want to add something? I think similarly, the same will be the case for the building blocks for the F4 line as well. As we guided that we see a very strong performance in The US, but we will see a more stronger performance from AME and APMEA versus H1 and slightly less performance in US. So if you add this all both together, then we are again at the lower end of our algorithm for the full year. And it's the first time we are entering the algorithm.

44:05 And two, as I highlighted earlier that EPS guidance, we will see the overall impacts slow down over the full year, but we will see strong kicker. That is why we have guided on the upgrade of our EPS guidance to the mid of the range. Just on the point, Gerard, I want to compliment on the on the because I received some questions about the low end of the range. We we are here thinking about the long term sustainability of the algorithm. And we are doing the right investments for the business, for the sustainable growth of the business. We have to invest in combustible in The U. S, in some other key markets as well. We have to invest in this excellent performance that we have in modern oral across the world. We are resetting our HP business, which also requires investments with the launch of Glowheel.

44:59 So and we always obviously have an opportunity in vapor in The US that we haven't seen in many years. So we are doing the right things for the business for the long run. And and as we always said, this is a year to go back to the algorithm. And we position in the low end to create us the possibility to make the right investments to make this a sustainable story moving forward. And I'm very confident that that will be the case. Thank you, Jonathan. Our next question is from David Ruh from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Thanks very much. Morning, Taylor and Jovid. My first question is just on combustibles.

45:48 At the trading updates in June, I think the business sort of downgraded its expectation for the global cigarette industry volumes from minus 2% to minus 2.5%. I think at the time you noted, this was predominantly driven by Bangladesh. It now seems the business has lowered its assumption again to now minus 3%. What is driving this latest sort of reduction in the outlook for cigarette volumes for the industry? Has Bangladesh deteriorated further or you're now seeing broader weakness across other markets? And then my second question is just on Velo in The US. I guess it's a it's a two part question. But if we take a step back, I mean, up following the rollouts of VeloMax through the rest of this year, how many SKUs across strengths and flavors do you expect to have across the total Velo platform by the end of this year versus, say, where we are today?

46:50 And then the second the second part of this is, your key competitor in The US, on nicotine pouches recently received a modified grant order to to market using a a reduced harm claim. Do you think this, modified grant order really moves the needle in terms of marketing, and is this something that you 'll be pursuing for VLO? Thank you. Okay. So let's address the first the combustible question. The two and a half to three is basically Brazil driven. We had a massive excise shock in Brazil. The price is coming to place on the August 1. This is really a meaningful price increase, excise driven. And obviously, this will have implications in the size of the market and is a big market like Bangladesh is also a big market, but it's basically Brazil driven.

47:44 On Velo, with the we have already three strengths in Velo plus We have another two now strengths. So we're going to have a total of five strengths in Velo. And obviously, this is the position we are today. What encourages in terms of this prioritization guidance from the FDA is that we'll be able with more certainty to bring more innovative products to the market in due time. So which hasn't been really the case for many, many years. You know that we have been filing PMTAs and being there for a long, long time. And this is about to change with the new guidance. So for the time being, we're going to be with the launch of Vilomax with five different strengths with the Vilomax family moving from as stands today.

48:40 In terms of your comments on the questions on at PM. Yeah. I first of all, I think that the MRTPA for modern oral is welcome as a category. I don't think that there is any major commercial benefits for any particular, I would say, SKU or product in the market. We do have in our applications for Velo MRTPA applications as well. So we might be in a position to receive one of those in due time. But I it's less about the commercial opportunity in the market, but more about what it means for from the advocacy of the category, mainly coming from a market like The U. With the FDA.

49:29 I think that is very important. As you know, we have been very, very ahead in terms of discussions with a number of stakeholders in order to properly regulate the category because we see the category as the lowest risk category within the new categories if you want, because there is no inhalation, there is no tobacco, is the closest you can get to any RT type of products. And we have now 32 markets, like I mentioned in my presentation, more than not regulated. A number of those markets sits in Europe, which is also very important. And events like that with the MRTPA is being delivered by FDA is very positive overall. It's less about the commercial impact in the local market, it's more about the advocacy of the category outside even outside The U. S.

50:33 Very clear. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Damian McNeither from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Yeah. Good morning. Thank you. Thanks for taking the questions. A few for me. Firstly, just on the new categories portfolio, I think you've made the decision to exit some markets in vape and reprioritized in heated. Can you just sort of indicate whether that work is now complete or whether there are sort of still markets that you're looking at around the viability of those categories? It's the first question. Second question is, can you provide a bit more information on what specifically is happening in the German combustibles market with regards to sort of increased competition and if there is anything you can do to sort of what you are doing to sort of combat that increased competition? And then the last one is just to follow-up on Faheem's question earlier.

51:30 Are you able to provide any indication of relative pricing for Velo Max in The US when it launches, please? Okay. Yeah. It starts for the last. No. The price we are we are not giving any indication of price of Vilomax. On Germany, we have seen over the last few couple of years mostly is the increasing trade labels, brands in the German market. More recently, this growth has more stabilized and but this has created some, I would say, down trading pressures in the market that we obviously have to react to that.

52:16 We are not seeing the growth at the pace that we were seeing before in trade labels. It seems that we are coming out more to a more stable situation. But that's what has been the dynamic over the last couple of years. Let's put in that way more recently eighteen months, I would say. In terms of Vapor exits and refocus on HP. Yes. The HP. Yes. The vapor markets, we mainly we decide to leave markets in Asia where we don't see either proper regulatory environment and or enforcement. So, and as a consequence, there is no financial return for a company, legal company like BAT because we have to compete with illegal products which there is no level playing field if you want.

53:07 So we decide to pull out of a number of markets that we have entered in the first place when they have regulated with an expectation that regulation would be made compliant. We this was not the case. We have to accept that. And then given that we will be constantly looking for best return for our investments in terms of resource allocation, we make the call to pull out. So that's why you see the vapor numbers in APMEA in particular negative as a consequence of these exits. In AME is more a consequence of a change in legislation in Poland that basically may completely not viable to be present in the vapor market anymore.

53:55 And also in The UK that with the change in the policies, again, another market that is very difficult to assess compliance. The latest numbers and that I saw there is showing a very, very strong presence of illegal products in The UK market. So this is something that will be continuing reassessing, I have to say. I'll tell you that most of it we have read act on. There will be probably some impact is still coming across the H2 of this year. And as we lap these for next year always become less evident about these market ex decisions. Okay. Thank you. Very clear.

54:43 Thank you. Our next question is from Talav Mittal from Barclays. Please go ahead. Good morning, team. Thank you for taking my questions. I had a technical issue earlier, so apologies if I missed it. But firstly, starting on The US combustibles business, volumes are better and price mix is a touch lower versus what we were expecting. And I think in your comment, said duty drawback is not a major part of it in terms of the mix. Can you quantify the volume that has seen a benefit from the WD drawback? And is it sequentially increasing or has that now stabilized? So that's the first one. And then secondly, on your vapor business, in Europe, it has been under pressure over the last couple of years and recently highlighted issues in Poland, etcetera. But how should we think about that European vape business in the medium term?

55:37 Okay. On the on the vapor in Europe, yes, the major drag for the numbers related to Poland. And we have been in strong positions in place like Germany, which is a very, very important vapor pool. VUZULTRA for example is making big inroads there. In other markets like France, Spain, have a lot of competition coming to the market, but we also have a very strong pipeline that we reach the market in H2. So we feel confidence in our ability to sustain our leadership position in Vapor in Europe in the markets that we have select to participate. So that's the first one. On the combustible, as I mentioned, overall, the industry, I would talk about the industry first.

56:28 We have seen a reduction in the levels of decline. And as I make the point in my presentation, a lot of that has to do with the growth of the low end of the segment of the category that actually if anything is growing, it's not declining, it's growing, continue to grow. And and we see less migration out of cigarettes towards the illegal vapers and and for basically two reasons. One is the the the accessibility availability of these products get more constrained when you have more states passing legislation, which is the case now of 50% where the volume is sold. And and all also the fact that we have more solar users combustibles that they don't want to to migrate to the vapor side. So these overall is great and dynamic that is more favorable than in the past.

57:25 It's hard to predict how it goes moving forward because if anything, we still have to see the correlation with oil price and conflicts that is happening in The Middle East and how this could impact oil price. But we know that there is a correlation between oil price and consumption of cigarettes in The U. S. We haven't seen this yet in the H1, but it's difficult to predict in the second half of the year. And obviously, what we will be doing and we'll be reflecting our top line numbers, we will be increasing our competitiveness to be able to answer the fact that the lower end of the market is growing. So this is one element that will have an implication in the second half of the year. The other elements, like I mentioned before, is the inventory movements that has an impact around 2% of revenue that will be lapping the second half of the year.

58:20 So it's not a reflection of the underlying performance if you want of the first half of the year. That's the main reason why in the case of U. S. We expect to be H1 skewed in terms of performance as opposed to the rest of the group that would be H2 skewed because of the performance of APMEA improving and the AME improving more than offsetting the moderation that will be seen in The U. In the second half. And we don't know. And the duty drawback, yes, in the first half was not very meaningful. And the second half, we are not be giving guidance about duty blow callback, but this will be part of the of the of the elements that will be taken into consideration when we put in place our plans.

59:14 Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Ray Vieux from Ankur Stockbrokers. Please go ahead. Yes. Good day, Tade, Stuart and Victoria. If I may just start off by saying Victoria is actually brilliant in red. So there's an opening there. Just I just want to get back to the guidance. Very strong performance on EPS, up 5.5%. Now if I look at your guidance, you've talked about EPS in the middle of the range, so that brings it basically 6.5%. You talked about translation impact negative 2% to 3%. So that brings us back to sort of adjusted EPS around about 4%.

1:00:03 Am I more or less correct doing that assumption? Actually, overall, implies a bit of a slowdown in the EPS growth for the year. Within that, you mentioned, obviously, The U. S. Will be a bit slower, and the other two regions will be a bit stronger. I just want know whether that summary is spot on. I think if you look at the profit performance of H1 and our guidance for the full year, so actually, it will move in the right direction, which means it will have more positive impact on EPS. But you as well, you're right that once we take into account the FX impact, our adjusted EPS would be in the range of 4%, 4.5%, which is just for a reminder, is one of the best EPS performance of BAT in the recent years. And we are very confident. And as I highlighted earlier, that it is mainly driven by the kickers below operating profit, mainly net finance cost and also the cash conversion. And we do get benefit for being a high cash generative business.

1:01:02 And even in H1, we are delivering a high cash conversion and we are on target to remain delivered above 95% conversion for the full year. But yes, you are right that our adjusted EPS would be more than 4%, around 4.5 on a current basis. On a current yes. Yes. And then just also on that, the new category growth, I mean, you guide for mid teens growth. So you had 18% in the first half. So I just want to get a feel of do you expect an improvement in the heated product, which was down 12%? But then obviously, I'm just curious about the growth in vapor, whether we can probably see a little bit of an acceleration there. Yes. Look, on Vapor, obviously, we will have views flavors coming in the market. But remember that I said that would be a phased approach. So most of the impact you'll be feeling in 2027.

1:01:58 We also have to take into consideration that we'll be lapping the exit of one competitor in The U. S. That happened in the second half last And so that's the dynamics around vapor. In HP, I'm not expect anything meaningful changing from the financial point of view. I do expect us to recover share from now until the end of the year with all the actions that we are putting in place. And Vilo, which is mainly the reason why we are calling in the mid teens, we'll be lapping a much stronger comparator in the second half. Of course, remember that in the first half of this year, we had basically launched Villa Plus at the end of twenty twenty four. They were still building up in the first half of twenty twenty five. So we'll just lap this half year now in 2026.

1:02:49 So they have a very, very strong numbers in terms of volume, in terms of revenue, triple digits in The U. S. And obviously, when it comes to the second half of the year, they are lapping a much stronger second half of twenty twenty five. That's that's the only reason why we are we are saying mid teens in the in the in the in the full year. Excellent. Thank you. Thank you. And our final question today is from Richard Pelton from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Thanks. Good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in. Two questions from me, please. The first one on U. S. Vapor specifically. As we think about the competition between Vuz and the Illicit segments, what are the gaps as it relates to flavors, devices and price points?

1:03:38 And which of those gaps can you now close as a result of the FDA prioritization guidance? Suppose Okay. Look, towards? You want ask another question. So let's finish here. You have another question or just Yes, yes. Sorry, that was the first one. Second one was on free cash conversion. Obviously, a little bit stronger than we would we normally see from BAT in H1. Your question is what are the drivers of that? Is it just phasing between periods? Or does that point to potentially better cash conversion on a full year basis too? Thank you. Okay. On the vapor, Javed covered the free cash flow. On the vapor side, obviously, we are more interesting on the channel, because you probably saw that in my slide that we talk about illicit presence in channels, track channels being 12%. But this is just 2% of the size of the illegal. Because most of the sales of illegal is is is done via independent vape stores.

1:04:47 And it's not just about the flavors, it's about they bring to markets, big device, big tanks device with a massive number of puffs that we will never be allowed to do. And it's not just a question of FDA approving because we as a responsible company, we never commercialize any views product in the world with more than 10 ml in terms of cartridge that equates to something like 4,000 puffs. Because they as you puff more and more, the metal degrades in contaminates the leak that you inhale. So it's a bad vapor. And and they don't care about that, those illegal players. So you you go out there and you buy 10,000 puffs and 20,000 puffs device. I I in my last market in The US, I saw one of 100,000 puffs device. And obviously, this has financial benefits when you consider the the the the cost per puff of this device. I will never be able to compete there. And this is a gap that needs to be closed by enforcement. But clearly, they shouldn't be in the market the first place because it doesn't bring any type of benefit health wise, if not the contrary.

1:05:58 So what we be closing the the the play field is on the convenient stores channels where they we haven't been able to be present with flavors since 2021, January 2021. We'll be back is a is a very important channel as well. And more important is a channel where we feel very confident about our ability through the retailers to check IDs before selling these products. We're not necessarily happens when you you indiscriminate start selling in independent stores and and other type of stores. So I think that this in that channel, we'll be closing the gap substantially will be competitive. Competitive. Now, the impact of these in the overall illicit market, we have to to wait and see.

1:06:45 I don't want to to do a proper estimation on that now. Yeah. And I think on the cash conversions, two points from my side. One is because of the lower net financing cost, as I highlighted earlier, which was due to the debt repayment from the proceeds of ITC. But more importantly, also, I think I'm very proud of the work the finance team keeps on doing with our commercial colleagues to keep focus on cash as much as we look do on profit. So hence, that focus on cash has delivered higher cash, which makes me very confident that for the full year, we will be delivering another year of more than 95% cash conversion for the full year. Yes. I wouldn't ask so much more that will be much better than previous year because we have a track record of a very strong cash conversion.

1:07:33 The performance in H1 just give us more confidence that can be another year of a very stronger delivery on that in that place. Thank you very much. Thank you. With this, I'd like to hand the call back over to Victoria for any additional or closing remarks. Over to you, ma'am. Thank you. Well, thank you very much for all the questions from the telephone lines. I'm afraid we are out of time and therefore, we'll not be able to get to the online questions, but the IR team will respond directly to those who sent questions in. And now I'd like to hand back to today for closing remarks. Okay. Thank you all for listening today and for all your questions. And then just to close, our H1 results were in line with our expectations, and we are on track to deliver our full year guidance with EPS now expect to be towards the middle of our 5% to 8% range. We will continue to reward our shareholders through strong cash returns, including our progressive dividend and sustainable share buyback and deliver long term growth and value creation. Thank you again for joining us. I look forward to see to see many of you in September at our Capital Markets Day.