Autocanada (TSX:ACQ) Q4 2025 Earnings Call

0:01 Thank you for joining AutoCanada's conference call to discuss the financial results for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty five. I'm John, your moderator for today's call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that today's discussion may include forward looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward looking statements. I encourage you to review AutoCanada's filings on SEDAR plus for a discussion of these risks, the fourth quarter news release, financial statements and MD and A. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I'd like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded today, Wednesday, 03/18/2026.

1:00 Now I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Samuel Cochran, Chief Executive Officer and interim chief financial officer of AutoCanada Inc. Please go ahead, mister Cochran. Good evening, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'd like to start by thanking the board for their trust in appointing me to lead AutoCanada at such an important time for the company. Before getting into AutoCanada's results, I want to briefly touch on the state of the automotive market. Demand for automotive vehicles in the fourth quarter was impacted by earlier pull forward activity. Tariff related policy changes drove stronger demand in the first half of twenty twenty five and the sunset in Canadian EV tax credits created a tough comparison to the strong fourth quarter of twenty twenty four and resulted in softer store traffic.

1:51 Across the industry, we also saw affordability pressures continue to weigh on consumers. New and used vehicle gross profit per unit declined for many dealer as vehicle availability increased, pricing normalized, and consumers made cost conscious purchasing decisions. At the same time, inflationary pressures and lower GPUs drove SG and A as a percentage of gross profit higher across the sector. With that context, let me discuss 2025 before turning to the quarter. 2025 was a year of significant change for AutoCanada. We undertook one of the most comprehensive transformations in the company's history with a clear objective, reset the cost structure, simplify the business and position for the next phase of growth.

2:39 We largely achieved that goal, but work remains. By the end of the year, we reached $115,000,000 in annual run rate cost savings, materially lowering the operating cost base of the company. Operationally, the most challenging issue late in the year was execution at the store level during the transformation. As we made changes across the organization, some stores temporarily lost momentum, which impacted sales productivity and gross profit performance relative to the market. Also certain initiatives were implemented too broadly and without enough flexibility and alignment which temporarily impacted store operations. Importantly, we have identified those issues and have put a new operations leadership team in place to stabilize and improve the business and restore execution across the network.

3:30 In the third quarter, we were underperforming the market by roughly 19 percentage points in new retail unit volumes. That improved to roughly 10 percentage points in Q4 and we continue to see improvement in the first quarter as we correct those execution issues. The following Jeep news we experienced in the third and fourth quarters of twenty twenty five largely reflected used vehicle procurement decisions made earlier in the year that were not well aligned with subsequent reductions in staff and marketing spend. This resulted in elevated levels of aged inventory entering 2026. In the near term, we expect to work through that inventory at lower GPUs while implementing stronger controls and reporting around used vehicle purchasing to improve performance going forward. You will see us gradually close the volume gap to the broader market through 2026, with GPUs expected to improve in the second half of the year.

4:24 With that, let me turn to the quarter. Revenue from continuing operations in Q4 was $1,100,000,000 down 11.8% year over year, primarily due to lower new and used vehicle volumes. Gross profit declined 19.5% year over year to $174,000,000 Normalized operating expenses declined 13.2% to $131,500,000 versus the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, partially offsetting the impact of market dynamics and operational disruptions. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was $32,700,000 compared to $54,400,000 in the prior year. Approximately 80% of that decline was related to operational disruptions discussed above, with the remaining 20% driven by market dynamics.

5:19 For the full year, sales declined 7.1% to $4,900,000,000 and gross profit declined 10.4% to $785,000,000 However, adjusted EBITDA increased to $198,000,000 up 11.5% year over year, highlighting the impact of the structural cost reset alongside continued strength in our collision business. Looking ahead to 2026, our focus is on five key priorities. First, stabilizing and improving our automotive retail business. Second, pursuing disciplined inorganic growth in our collision business. Third, improving the support our head office provides the dealerships and collision centers.

6:05 Fourth, strengthening our recruitment and retention of top operational leaders across the country. We want AutoCanada to be the best place to work for high performers. And fifth, maintaining a lean and efficient cost structure. To achieve that, there are several areas where we are focused on. First, we need to operate our dealership better. This means improving sales productivity, inventory management, trade capture, and service utilization across the network. To do this, we need to empower our general managers and frontline staff to make decisions closer to our customers. We also need to improve our service offerings to our dealerships from our store support center. We believe market leading volumes can be restored over the next six to nine months and GPUs will normalize over the coming year as execution continues to improve.

7:00 Second, we will continue to grow our collision platform. Collision remains one of the most attractive parts of the business, with strong margins, insurance driven demand and a highly fragmented market. Our platform today includes 33 locations, and we have the team and strategy to support more than 100 stores. We also have a strong track record of acquiring and integrating collision centers. We have a robust pipeline of opportunities and intend to pursue those acquisitions as our balance sheet allows. Third, we are focused on improving the administrative services supplied by our store support center to free up our frontline teams to focus on our customers and operate their businesses effectively.

7:47 Fourth, we are focused on creating a culture of high performance, which will allow us to recruit, develop and retain the best operators across the country. We must become the best place to work for high performers. And finally, we will remain disciplined on cost. Turning briefly to the balance sheet, we expect leverage to remain around four times net funded debt to bank EBITDA in the near term as we complete the final U. S. Dealership sales and continue improving earnings. We made further progress exiting The U. S. Portfolio and continue to expect total proceeds of approximately $130,000,000 including approximately $81,000,000 that has not yet been received and is expected this year. These proceeds will continue to be used to reduce debt and strengthen the balance sheet. Before opening the line for questions, I want to thank our employees and OEM partners for their commitment during a year of significant change. With that, operator, we are ready to open the lines for questions.

8:49 Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you wish to decline from the polling process, Our first question comes from the line of Luke Hannan from Canaccord Genuity. Yeah. Thanks. Good afternoon. Quite a bit to get into here. But, look, I'd like to to start with the the used performance. I guess, Sam, you you touched on, you know, the the fact that there was issues when it came to age inventory and sourcing from earlier in the year and you're sort of paying the price for that now. And that was something that had impacted you in Q3 as well. But can you just frame up for us as far as where you stand going into 2026?

9:47 We understand that g GPUs are still gonna be pressured in in the near term. But I mean, how how do you feel about your your used inventory still, in light of that? Because look, AutoCanada, if we were to look back over the past, there's been several times in the past where it felt like used has been an issue. It seems like it still is. What's gonna be put in place to try and put some guardrails around this? These sorts of issues don't happen again. Yeah. Thank you. So let me sort of dive into it. So the used vehicle GPUs declined, right, due to a combination of inventory purchasing decisions ahead of reduced marketing spend and reduced headcount in the dealerships. Again, this goes back to execution on the cost out.

10:33 It wasn't exactly where I wanted it to be. And now that I'm in the role, we have a new operations team who's really focused on, you know, the future. So let me answer the first question. GPUs on used will remain, tight in q one. They'll get a little bit better, you know, slightly better in q two, and we'll begin to fully normalize in q three and q four. So second half of the year, we should get back to normal used GPUs. And then to your question on how do we instill discipline to make sure it doesn't happen again? Obviously, we hired Fate to be COO. He started in January. And, you know, a few things he's doing is it's really a full used vehicle strategy reset, including a pricing reset. Right? So we're gonna price more accurately to market, and we're gonna actually, you know, be able to make the turnover quicker. We're also gonna organize proper mix analysis per store and put in a buy box strategy per rooftop.

11:33 What does that mean, practically speaking? So if you look back to '25, if we bought a a Ford a used Ford at a Audi dealership, I'm just using a random example, and then all and in the past, we've had success selling that car. And then all of a sudden, turned off Trader. No one could see that car anymore. So it was hard to move. Right? And then that was compounded by we didn't have the right discipline on pricing. And so that that that car aged. Right? So going forward, we are turning AutoCanada back on. It is back on on all of our stores. We are putting more discipline around what we buy per rooftop, what that mix is. We are gonna reset minimal margin expectations on acquisitions. So you can't just buy anything. There's gonna be a minimal margin expectation on each used car that's bought.

12:22 And so between the the buy box, the mix analysis, the pricing reset, and the minimal margin expectations, this will all lead to improved turns on used inventory, reduced price to market gaps. What does that mean? Like, we're not gonna have these big gaps where we're priced higher than market and stabilize our front end margins. So you'll see those GPUs stabilize. So and then going forward, even beyond that, we're also gonna implement service lane acquisitions and the strategy across the network. So, listen, disappointing for sure, but I do believe we have the right team to fix this. All the issues have been identified. Those controls are being put in place as we speak and and looking back a bit, And we just have to get through that old inventory. And so you'll see those GPUs normalize in sort of late Q2 into the second half of the year. Does that make sense?

13:15 It does. Thanks. Thanks for all that color. And then maybe if we flip over to the new business, it's mentioned in the MD and A here that there was a provision taken against specific brands. Is that what the commentary, I'm not sure if this is specific to new, but it looks like it is talking about aged new units. Is that specific to certain brands? Is that across portfolio? Just wanted to get some more light show on on what exactly that is. Yeah. I'm not gonna call out individual brands, but it is very brand specific. And if you look at the press releases or news releases you've seen from the OEMs, there's been a lot of write offs on EV strategies and this sort of stuff. So think of this as sort of older cars that are new, potentially EVs harder to move, right, in certain brands. So that we do believe this is again a one time item in this quarter on the new side.

14:13 And it's just sort of part of that cleanup of the continuing that trend you've seen from all the OEMs when they've done their earnings calls. Got it. Thanks. And then one other comment that you made, Sam, was about in basically six to nine months, we should start to see what AutoCanada looks more like on a on sort of a a normalized basis going forward. But again, going through the MD and A, there is a comment mentioning about how it's it's to get dealership performance back to, we'll call it, industry benchmarks. It's gonna take twelve to eighteen months of of execution. So what's can you just help us reconcile, those different outlooks?

14:59 Yeah. I think what you'll see over the next six to nine is the GPU starting to perform better and the momentum turning in the business. If you wanted the full picture of what this business can do, I think the twelve to eighteen is the better time frame. The six to nine is you'll see the momentum building back in the business. Okay. So then if In terms of new GPUs start going up again and volume the volume gap to market, it was 18% in Q3, was 10% in q four. And and also, you know, there's been a multiyear market share decline in in the company. Right? So we're we're we're turning that around. It's yes. We gotta fix that gap that just happened, that that curve steepened, but we also have to get back to winning market share. So, again, we have a new team. I think they're focused on the right things.

15:48 Twelve to eighteen months to see the full true run rate of these assets, six to nine to really see the momentum being built in the business. Okay, thanks. Last one, just to clarify and then I'll pass the line here. So when you began the cost out process in your continuing operations, I think you're doing trailing twelve month EBITDA close to 175,000,000 You've taken out now a 150,000,000 of cost. I realized the market is what it is right now. So it's not like all that's gonna fall to the bottom line. But is it fair to say if we're looking at this today, it's probably going to take closer to twelve to eighteen months before you actually do see the full sort of run rate effect of those costs actually flow down to the bottom line and this business is operating more on it?

16:35 You're generating EBITDA that's more normalized compared to where are today? Yeah. I mean, listen. 80% of this quarter was execution and things we did to ourselves through the cost out. 20% was macro. So we did have a little bit of macro impact in the quarter as well. It started to turn a little bit. I sort of talked about that at the beginning of my of my call of the call script of the call today. So, you know, the macro will be what it is. We'll start to improve compared to that. The cost out yeah. For to see the full impact of the cost out, you're gonna have to see us get back that gross. Right? Because it's just hard to see with how much volumes have gone down and where the gross profit is. So I think you're right. Luke, like, twelve to eighteen months, I think, is right. The important part on the cost out is we broke all the bad habits.

17:24 We now have a culture of just staying lean and keeping the cost out. We will rebuild on this better cost structure, and we sort of reset the the culture of the business around cost. So I believe yeah. Yeah. It's fruits are gonna pay in the future. K. I'll leave it there. Thanks. Thanks, Luke. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Murray from ATB Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Yes. Hi, guys. Good evening. So Sam, just to be kind of following on some of the questions, maybe a couple of other segments just to talk about. So parts and service was also negatively impacted, you know, probably not an inventory issue, but I think, you know, you did mention in the MD and A, maybe some of the ACX issues.

18:17 So maybe if you could just spend some time talking about parts and service and how that was impacted and kind of what gets changed, because even in this environment, if people are trying to hold on to cars and cut costs, we think that parts and service would still be doing okay. And also on the collision repair, it was a little softer than I think we were looking for just in terms of the top line. You've been having some good success there. So just any thoughts around those segments would be helpful, please. I'll start with the collision one because that one's a bit easier to answer. There was a big hailstorm in '24, and our hail business has been sort of at the buffet eating off that for a while. And '25 was a lighter hail season. So I think that's what you're seeing in the top line. So that's that's what you're seeing there on collision. Now on the parts and service, again, this kinda goes back to execution of the cost out.

19:06 It was the right idea. I just believe we could have executed it a lot better. And in some areas, we we painted with too broad of a brush and and weren't flexible enough. And this led to turnover in parts and service at unacceptable levels. And with that turnover, you know, you lose team members, you learn, you lose knowledge, and then the GMs are are stuck having to rebuild. So, again, these issues have been addressed and fixed, but during during the year, there was unacceptable levels of turnover in our parts and service staff, and it came down to execution. So we'll improve that, and we've already started. And so you'll start to see that firm up. Okay. So as I kind of listened to you, it sounds like you maybe, as you said, starting to stabilize probably six to nine months. How do we think about the earnings cadence as we go through next year? I mean, I think we're all a little bit surprised by the numbers out of Q4, a little bit lower than the consensus number was.

20:10 But do you think we can start seeing a recovery? Is it going to be kind of gradual? Or would you think it's more kind of a step function as we get to midyear? And how do we think about how some of the key drivers in terms of the recovery, at least the way you guys are looking at it? Well, in Q1 here, we'll still be turning over some of the problem inventory that we sort of inherited and a little bit into Q2. So what I think you'll see is Q1 will remain challenged. Q2, you'll start to see improvement, especially in the second half. And then what you'll see in q three is we'll start performing much closer to market, plus GPs are starting to come back. So I think that's how you're gonna wanna model for the year.

20:57 And listen. Like, there's no high in it. These results are unacceptable. Right? And they do not show the true run rate of our business. But with our new culture focused on staying lean and focused on automotive retail and collision are two pillars of growth and a new operations team in the in the automotive retail side, steadily focused on improved execution. I'm confident the second half of this year will show meaningful momentum towards the true potential of this business. My job now is simple, keep the team focused on our five pillars, right, our five key things we're working on, stabilize and improve automotive retail, disciplined organic and inorganic growth and collision, improve services from our store support center, and then rebuild that culture around performance and retain attracting the best talent. And, of course, staying lean, like, we do those five things, and we will, you're gonna see that momentum build in the second half of the year.

21:52 Okay. I'll leave it there and pass the line. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Sam Cochran. Please continue, sir. Well, thank you for joining the call and and for the questions, and thanks again to all the ROEM partners and staff and shareholders. Have a great night. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.