Aurubis (Xetra:NDA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Analyst Call. The conference will be recorded. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen only mode. The floor will be open for questions following the presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to Elke Brinkman, Head of Investor Relations.

0:21 Good afternoon, and welcome to our Q3 twenty twenty five-twenty six conference call. We will walk you through the results for the first nine months of our fiscal year. With us on the call are our CEO, Thorval Falk and CFO, Stefan Hochmann. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. If you would like to ask a question during the Q and A session, please use the combination star nine pound key sequence. Before we start, let me draw your attention to our disclaimer. We will make forward looking statements today. These are based on current plans and expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

1:09 Actual results may differ materially. That being said, let me now turn the floor over to Kurval Harken.

1:18 Thank you, Eike, and good morning and good afternoon from sunny Hamburg. Before we dive into the details later in the presentation, let me provide you with a high level overview of the performance in the first nine months. Operating EBT increased significantly by 31% to €374,000,000 compared to the previous year, in line with expectations. Operating EBITDA came in at €570,000,000 The improved performance in the first nine months was supported by markedly higher earnings in Q3 of fiscal year twenty five-twenty six, where operating EBT came in at €149,000,000 a 23% increase versus Q2 of the current fiscal year.

2:10 Net cash flow was minus €28,000,000 considerably below last year's $357,000,000 This is mainly due to the temporary buildup of the intermediate product inventories to supply the phased commissioning of the expanded tank house in buildup. As just highlighted, the increase in inventories is a temporary effect, which, by the fiscal year end, we expect the net cash flow to be above the prior year level of €677,000,000,000 As alluded to in our Q2 analyst call, free cash flow before dividend came in as expected significantly negative at minus €365,000,000 compared to minus €211,000,000 last year.

3:03 Based on our latest planning, we continue to expect the free cash flow before dividend to breakeven at a minimum for the full fiscal year twenty twenty five-twenty twenty six. Operating return on capital employed increased to 9.4, up from 9.1%, reflecting improved earnings performance and partly offset by the temporary inventory buildup. In light of the improved results after nine months and our current planning, from today's perspective, anticipate operating EBT to come in around the upper end of the forecast range for the 2526 fiscal year.

3:52 Let us now have a look at how the market environment developed over the last quarter. Against the backdrop of an exceptionally tight market environment, sulfuric acid was one of the most supportive earnings drivers during the third quarter as the ongoing Middle East shipping restrictions and the Chinese export ban for sulfuric acid are lifting prices to new highs. European spot copper premiums remained at high levels supported by healthy demand for refined copper. In recycling markets, spot refining charges for scrap number two stayed above prior year levels despite a moderate easing during the quarter.

4:38 By contrast, concentrate markets remain very challenging. Spot TCRCs for copper concentrates declined further and remained under pressure as smelter demand continues to outpace mine supply.

4:57 With regard to the price environment of our key metals, copper continued its upward trend during the third quarter. This was supported by robust demand expectations and a constructive market backdrop. Gold and silver remained at historically elevated levels as well, although both might not saw some consolidation compared to the exceptionally strong levels reached earlier this year. The euro U. S. Dollar exchange rate fluctuated during the quarter but remained within a relatively narrow trading range. As always, bear in mind that there is no direct one to one relationship between spot price movements and our reported earnings.

5:45 As part of our exposure hedged and some effects materialize with a time lag. And now I would like to hand over to Stefan. He will walk you through our performance in the third quarter and the financial results for the first nine months of the fiscal year. Thank you, Thomas. Good afternoon and a warm welcome from my side as well. Let me start with the key figures for the third quarter. Overall, Q3 marked another step up in profitability. Operating EBT increased to €149,000,000 up 23% compared to the previous quarter.

6:31 Apart from achieving a higher metal result, we leveraged the opportunities of the tight sulfuric acid market earlier than we had hinted at in the last conference call. Along with improved recycling RCs, these positive earnings contributions compensated for the drop in concentrate DCRCs. Net cash flow amounted to minus €189,000,000 compared to plus €169,000,000 in Q2. Cash generation remains a key priority for us. However, in the last quarter, we built inventories to ensure a smooth ramp up of our strategic projects. In addition, we had some seasonally higher levels of finished goods.

7:19 Thus, the weaker cash flow should be seen as a temporary effect that should be reversed by the end of the fiscal year twenty five-twenty six. Looking at page seven. Let's switch to the nine month overview. Group revenues increased by 29% to EUR17.8 billion, mainly reflecting higher metal prices and solid operating performance across the business. Operating EBT increased by 31% to EUR374 million. The earnings drivers in the first nine months were largely consistent with those seen in Q3. Higher contributions from the metal result, recycling activities, sulfuric acid and copper products more than compensated for the continued pressure on concentrate TCRCs.

8:15 As mentioned for Q3, net cash flow was impacted by temporary inventory effects in the third quarter and therefore amounting to minus €28,000,000 compared to plus €357,000,000 in the prior year. Operating ROCE improved to 9.4% from 9.1% and increased for the third consecutive quarter supported by the strong earnings momentum despite an increase in capital employed. Coming to our sources of income. You will see that gross margin increased to around 1,700,000,000 Euro, up by roughly 140,000,000 versus the prior year.

9:01 The increase was driven not only by higher copper and precious metal prices, but also by a strong operational performance in the first nine months of fiscal year twenty twenty five-twenty twenty six as higher production volumes across the group provided an additional uplift. Please bear in mind that the same period last year was impacted by the planned maintenance shutdown in Piedmont. The metal result increased its contribution from 37% to 43% of gross margin, benefiting from higher metal prices and the stronger production performance. In contrast, the share of TCRCs and recycling RCs declined from 27 to 21%.

9:50 As expected, the tight concentrate market weighed on earnings, although recycling charges developed more favorably and partly cushioned the impact. Products and ingredients remained broadly stable at 36% of gross margin. Healthy demand for copper products and a stronger sulfuric acid contribution helped offset the headwinds from raw mat markets. Overall, this development illustrates the strength of our multi metal business model. Pressure in one earnings component can be compensated by opportunities in others. On page nine, let's now dive into the multi metal recycling segment.

10:37 The segment generated a gross margin of €589,000,000 an increase of €87,000,000 compared to the prior year. Within the gross margin mix, the metal result increased its contribution from 46% to 51%, benefiting primarily from higher prices for gold, silver and copper. The share of refining charges decreased from 44% to 39%, which is mainly due to the shift in distribution of the gross margin drivers. On a higher gross margin basis, refining charges still contributed a higher absolute earnings amount than in the prior year.

11:23 Products and premiums remained stable at 10% and continued to provide an additional earnings contribution. This stronger earnings profile translated into operating EBITDA of €162,000,000 up from €97,000,000 while operating EBT increased to €87,000,000 from €36,000,000 Importantly,

11:49 operating ROCE improved to 3.8% from a low 0.6%, reflecting the improved earnings performance despite continued growth investments and an elevated capital input. Turning now to the performance of the CSP segment. The segment generated a gross margin of more than 1,100,000,000 Euro, an increase of around 50,000,000 Euro compared to the prior year. Products and premiums remained the largest earnings contributor with a share of 50%. This is broadly in line with last year, highlighting the continued strength of our copper products and sulfuric acid businesses.

12:38 The metal result increased its contribution from 32% to 38%, benefiting from higher copper and precious metal prices. As expected, contribution from treatment and refining charges declined from 19% to 12%. Despite higher production volumes, we were faced with softer TCRC levels that gradually moved over into our contracts, although not to the same extent as the development we showed earlier for the spot market. Concentrated throughput increased to 1,900,000 tons, while sulfuric acid sales rose to 1,800,000 tons.

13:24 The increase in sulfuric acid earnings reflects both higher volumes and higher prices. The volume increase benefited from the absence of the Pilot Main in Shell, which was carried out in the prior year, while higher sulfuric acid prices started to contribute more meaningfully to earnings in Q3. As a result, for CSP, operating EBITDA increased to CHF461 million from CHF436 million while operating EBT rose to CHF $355,000,000 from CHF $342,000,000. Operating ROCE came in at 15.5% below last year's 17.6%, which was mainly driven by an increase in capital employed of around €200,000,000 Coming to page 11, let's now take a look at cost development in the group.

14:23 Total costs edged up by about €60,000,000 4% increase to €1,480,000,000 largely on account of footprint expansion. The main driver was higher scheduled depreciation and amortization of EUR37 million reflecting our investment activities and the ramp up of strategic projects. The uptick in personnel costs is also in part attributable to our increased footprint and the associated higher average headcount as well as to general wage inflation. Other operating expenses decreased slightly to 20% of total costs with logistics and administrative costs being the largest components.

15:10 With a share of 9%, energy costs were broadly on par with the prior year level thanks to an effective energy management and hedging. On to the cash flow bridge on page 12. Starting with operating EBITDA, which was at EUR570 million, offset by a EUR525 million increase in net working capital, which reflects the impact of higher metal prices, seasonal effects and the ramp up of our strategic projects. Aurubis has a track record of generating reliable cash flows. However, as we regularly highlight, cash flow at any reporting date can be influenced by temporary balance sheet effects.

16:02 Including tax payments of EUR73 million, net cash flow amounted to minus EUR28 million compared to plus EUR357 million in the prior year. Cash outflow for investing activities totaled €322,000,000 and was primarily related to Aurubis Richmond and the new precious metals refinery in Hamburg. As I have mentioned during the Q2 conference call, we expected a significantly negative free cash flow for Q3 of this fiscal year twenty twenty five-twenty twenty six, mainly due to temporary inventory buildup in connection with the phased commissioning of the tank house expansion in Piedr up as well as normal seasonality.

16:49 So in light of this, the free cash flow of minus €365,000,000 came in as expected.

16:56 Cash generation remains a key management priority and we continue to expect net cash flow for the full year to exceed the prior year level. We also remain on track to achieve a free cash flow before dividends at least at breakeven level for the full fiscal year. After P and L and cash flow, let me briefly touch on our balance sheet and key financial ratios. The equity ratio stood at close to 49% compared to around 56% in the prior year, while the equity increased by more than €250,000,000 the mentioned increase in balance sheet in total more than compensated for this effect.

17:42 For the full year, we expect the KDI to be closer to the level of the previous year.

17:50 In consequence of the change in the net financial position, our debt coverage increased to 1.0 from 0.6 in the prior year, which is still well below our target of not more than three. Considering that we are executing one of the largest investment programs in the company's history, the ratio of 1.0 remains very moderate and underlines the continuous strength of our balance sheet.

18:23 Capital expenditure decreased significantly versus last year, reflecting that the strategic CapEx program is almost behind us. Capital employed increased by around €630,000,000 €4,800,000,000 reflecting both our strategic growth investments and the temporary working capital build up which we highlighted earlier.

18:50 Let's now turn to the outlook for the key drivers of our business for the remainder of the current fiscal year twenty five-twenty six. Overall, the raw material markets remain competitive but manageable. Our diversified sourcing setup and long term supply relationships continue to support stable operations despite challenging market conditions. Concentrate markets are still the most demanding area. We continue to expect concentrate availability to stay tight and TCRCs to remain under pressure as global smelting demand continues to exceed mine supply.

19:36 In recycling markets, conditions remain broadly stable, While a modest seasonal decline in availability is typical towards summer, we currently see no material change in the overall supply situation and continue to view recycling markets as supportive.

19:57 Regarding the euro US dollar exchange rate, we maintain our previous view despite some fluctuations in the last quarter. And the outlook for sulfuric acid remains highly favorable Given the Chinese export restrictions and ongoing logistical disruptions, we anticipate the current market environment to prevail. Metal prices continue to provide support, particularly for copper and precious metals, and demand for our copper products remains healthy. Thus, the outlook remains intact overall as we are actively navigating challenges.

20:42 Based on our performance of the first nine months of the fiscal year, we confirm our full year guidance of CHF 700,000,000 to CHF 800,000,000 operating EBITDA and €425,000,000 to €525,000,000 operating EBT and expect the EBT to come in at the upper end of the guidance range.

21:07 For the operating ROCE or group level, we maintain the communicated level between 1012%. While net cash flow, we expect to be above last year's level as the previously discussed temporarily high inventory levels should be reversed until fiscal year end. Following our net cash flow guidance and the projected reversal of inventory build ups, we also continue to anticipate a free cash flow before dividend at least at the breakeven level for which we see ourselves being on track. Still, please bear in mind that the usual working capital fluctuations in high metal price environments may affect our free cash flow at the balance sheet date.

21:55 Having outlined all of this, let me remind you that all of these guidance figures are built on our current market assumptions as usual and do not account for major unforeseen disruptions. And with this, I'd like to hand back over to Thorold.

22:11 Thank you very much, Stefan. I would like now to turn to our strategic projects and start with complex recycling Hamburg, where we have reached an important milestone during this quarter. After first production in May, we officially commissioned the plant and celebrated its inauguration in July. The project was delivered as planned, demonstrating our disciplined approach to project execution. Since startup, the ramp up has progressed well, and we exceeded our internal targets for the first nine months of operation.

22:50 This success reflects the excellent preparation and collaboration of the teams on-site. We have already reached the targeted feed mix of internal and external raw materials. This is encouraging from both a technical and a commercial perspective. Looking ahead, we will steadily increase throughput and we expect the plant to contribute to the group's earnings through TCRCs and metal results incurred from complex raw materials. Overall, CRH is proving to be a success, and it strengthens our smelter network by unlocking the unique opportunities it offers. Let me now walk you through the recent developments in The US.

23:37 We consider Aurubis Richmond a key pillar of our growth strategy and step by step we are moving ahead technically and commercially. That being said, during the last quarters we already indicated that ramping up the greenfield smelter is taking longer than originally anticipated anticipated as we experienced technical challenges during ramp up. Accordingly, we corrected the expected EBITDA contribution from Richmond for the fiscal year twenty five-twenty six to a level below breakeven. The longer ramp up of key equipment is causing commissioning of both phases to overlap, leading to an overall longer ramp up period. From today's perspective, ramp up for phase one will be completed in fiscal year twenty six-twenty seven and ramp up for phase two in fiscal year twenty seven-twenty eight, respectively.

24:36 Furthermore, given overall given the overall heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the recycling market, raw material qualities and quantities have naturally shifted from the original plan, as well, which impacts the technical side to some extent, too.

24:56 Against the background of the technical and commercial issues, Aurubis Richmond's midterm earning profiles shifts out by one year. We are actively addressing those angles, the technical as well as the commercial ramp up. In light of the longer time needed, we expect that in the current fiscal year, Aurubis Richmond will contribute to the group's earnings to a similar degree as last year. This is baked in today's reiterated guidance for fiscal year 'twenty five and 'twenty six, where we see ourselves at the upper end of the $4.25 to €525,000,000 corridor for the group. For the outer years, positive effects from resulting from higher metal prices and improved commercial teams terms support the earnings outlook, while the outlook by the forecast also reflects the updated assumptions on ramp up timing,

25:58 the feed mix, and metal contents. After full technical and commercial ramp up, as of today, we expect the medium term annual EBITDA contribution from Richmond to the Aurubis Group to be in a healthy territory, not exactly at the previous target level, still in the triple digit million euro region. As I have stated in the beginning, we are convinced that Aurubis Richmond creates a foundation for us to further grow in The US, and we are managing the technical and commercial complexities of the business.

26:43 Finally, I would also like to briefly update you on the tank house expansion in Pilot, another important cornerstone within our strategic investment program. This project is designed to remove a bottleneck in our production network and increase annual cathode production by 120,000 tons. Construction work and installation of the main equipment have been completed. The gradual commissioning process is now underway, and we expect operations to commence in autumn twenty twenty six. Once fully ramped up, the expansion will increase capital production and contribute to our gross margin through higher products and premiums while also optimizing logistics costs.

27:31 With this project, we add another building block to our smelter network, increasing resilience and seizing opportunities. Coming to a close, let me summarize the key takeaways from today's presentation. For the first nine months, Aurubis delivered an operating EBT of €374,000,000, which is 31% above the prior year level.

27:59 Operating EBT in the third quarter is at €149,000,000 and is supported by an improved metal result, increased revenues from processing recycling materials as well as from sulfuric acid and copper products. Our cash flow in the third quarter was temporary impacted by an inventory buildup, largely in connection with strategic projects, which we expect to reverse until fiscal year end.

28:28 Thus, we maintain our target to achieve a free cash flow before dividend breakeven at the minimum for the fiscal year twenty five-twenty six. On the back of our improved performance, the group operating return on capital employed increased while still being dampened by the temporary inventory spike. With respect to our strategic project pipeline, we continue to make progress.

28:57 CIH was officially inaugurated. The tank house expansion in buildup is close to commissioning. And in Richmond, we are addressing the extended ramp up and shift its earnings profile. For the remainder of the fiscal year, we expect that higher metal prices, earnings from recycling raw materials, as well as higher contributions from the copper products and sulfuric acid business will mitigate the effects from the challenging concentrate markets. Therefore, we confirm our guidance for the fiscal year twenty twenty five-twenty twenty six and expect operating EBT to come in around the upper end of the forecast range of €425,000,000 to €525,000,000 And with this, I would like to hand back over to Elke Brinkmann.

29:49 Thanks, Thorvald and Stefan. Before we open the line for your questions, I would like to provide you with an overview of the next events. Our annual report for fiscal year 'twenty five-'twenty six will be released on December 2 and followed by the Q1 publication on February 4 and the AGM on February 11.

30:11 That being said, I'll now hand over to the operator for the first question. Star, nine, and pound key on your telephone keypad. If you would like to revoke your question, press star, three, and pound key. You can also use the dial in function in the webcast and raise your hand if you would like to ask a question.

30:39 We already have a few questions submitted. The first question goes to Deutsche Bank from Bastian Zena Govitz. The floor is yours, Bastian. Good afternoon, Olin. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got a couple and we'll take them one by one if that's okay. And maybe starting off on guidance here. So I guess if we take the upper end of your guidance, it implies

31:04 a flat pretax of around €150,000,000 in the fourth quarter. And I guess you've got the LUNE standstill, which is now completed, which reverses roughly €10,000,000 in earnings. You've got the sulfuric contributions, which will be higher, which you mentioned already as well as the metal result, just looking at the prices of gold, silver and copper, I guess, there should be still definitely some room to go considering your hedge duration. I guess all of these are pretty positive drivers and potentially powerful. And you mentioned TCRCs, but I guess those are mostly contracted. So what is going against you here

31:39 to basically still basically just guide for flat EBITDA in the last quarter? And what are the points to keep in mind? That's my first question. Thank you, Bastian. So I think it's important to reiterate here that during the course of the year, we have increased the guidance two times. With this call we stayed within the guidance range but we added the language that we see ourselves at the upper end of the range. We did not say the upper half. We said the upper end of the range.

32:21 So what we are trying to say here is that we look into a good fourth quarter. We look into a quarter four that should be in the similar ballpark as Q3 but still for the full year within the range at the upper end. So if we look at the drivers here,

32:46 obviously, sulfuric acid helping a lot, helped quite nicely in Q3. But, there's an upside in Q4 versus On the metal for the time being, I would assume it can be similar Q4 as Q3 on a good level similar, same for products on a similar level but a good level, RCs similar on a good level. And then I think there's two things. One is TCRCs where we have seen a gradual more difficult situation during the quarter. So I or we bake our assumptions here on the fact that Q4 TCRC impact should be visible versus Q3.

33:34 And then finally, what you notice the at least at our end in the seasonality of cost in the last quarter of a fiscal year, we would expect that costs are a bit more pronounced, a bit more expelled. But once again, we are trying to send a constructive message here on Q4 and we are quite happy with how the year is evolving. Okay, great. Very clear. Thank you, Stefan. Then maybe moving on to the situation in Richmond and you basically cut your expectations for the project as most people just turned a bit more positive given the policy backdrop, I guess, there's

34:13 metal prices and it's also pretty decent scrap RC levels over in the year. So some of the factors which you highlighted as to why you're cutting the target here sound a bit more temporary in nature. So which are really the drivers for you to impair the outlook structurally?

34:32 And is there also any early indication on where you expect the EBITDA number for the product for a project contribution to go next year? Maybe also just adding to that, has your DNA schedule changed with the delay? Yes, but then let me start on the structure. We firstly, like we said in the presentation, we firmly believe that this is the right investment and that this will significantly contribute to Aurubis' earnings in the future. The main reason is the technical ramp up, where

35:10 we experienced some difficulties, which you can say is, on the one hand, normal when you have a greenfield expansion. On the other hand, we had to adapt our technical capabilities to also to the feed mix, which is a little bit different in The U. S. Than it is in Europe. So we are in a, I would say, in a learning phase there, but we are producing metals. So but it's below our expectations.

35:36 But we are confident that this will improve over the course of the next month. So the main reason for the delay is is some technical issues we have in phase one. We don't expect that we have the same amount of technical issues in phase two when we ramp that up because, you know, we will learn from from phase one. The commercial terms, you know, like we said, we are establishing

36:01 ourselves in the market. We don't see this as a major issue going forward. We have established relationships with the raw material, but the recycling suppliers in the West because we had this relationship before. So there's long term trusted relationships. We are currently well supplied in the plant, and we continue to play a role in that market. And we are positive on the overall outlook of the recycling market for the future also in The U. S. Because copper demand is rising. And as you know, they cannot fulfill all their copper demand by internal sources, not by concentrates and recycling materials. And we also think there will be some benefits in the next months by the further tightening of the U. S. Government of the export of recycling materials to other parts of the world. So in summary, again, the main cause for the what we mentioned for the delay is technical issues in the ramp up of Phase one. Maybe Stefan to the outlook?

37:12 Yes. Sebastian, you asked about, let's say, an indication for an EBITDA for next year. I mean, we all know that today is probably not the point in time where we want to dive for next year. But still, to get into the topic you alluded to, Toref said in his speech that the earnings profile for Richmond shifts out by one year. We did start this fiscal year with an ambition to achieve EBITDA breakeven for this fiscal year. We stated today that this is not the case anymore. But if you apply this rule of thumb of shifting out by one year, we roughly can say that obviously, we definitely want to achieve an EBITDA breakeven next year.

38:04 Okay. Okay. Great. That's helpful. And the D and A schedule, I guess, has not changed versus the original guidance? Right. It has not. Sorry, we were muted here. It has not changed. That's correct. Got you. Okay. And sorry to come back just on the structure shift. So from what I understood, you basically maybe walked back a little bit the €170,000,000 EBITDA contribution target, which you had given earlier. And I guess you wouldn't have done that if you would still expect 160,000,000 or maybe 150,000,000 or whatever. So it seems like we may come in below that number. Did I understand that correctly? And again, from everything you talked about earlier, these sound all like very temporary basically headwinds, which I guess you say yourself you'll be fixing all the time.

38:56 So if you walk back to 170, what are the lasting headwinds relative to what you were aiming for before? I mean, correct that today we are saying that we see the EBITDA contribution from Richmond to the Aurubis Group in healthy territory, but not exactly at the previous target level you just alluded to the figure, but it's still in the triple digit million euro region. With that, we are not saying that it's exactly where this triple digit million euro region starts. So it's somewhere between where it starts and where we initially guided. We would now, as we talk here about, let's say, a midterm period and so let's say, talk about the next three years ahead.

39:47 And I'm sure in this dynamic, but also very promising U. S. Market, there will always be some premise changes. So that's why, as of today, we will not shoot exactly for a new figure. But what we are trying to say, it's below this lower end of what is a triple digit figure and what has been before. So let's say, a double digit million euro gap between what we had initially said. What we mentioned here is based on a view of, let's say, the next two to three to four years that we are basing ourselves on, it would not make sense to look out further into the future.

40:36 And let's say, this technical ramp up situation that Charles has described is probably more a thing of the next two years. And the commercial ramp up is obviously also a decisive endeavor now for the next two years. And this is where we base ourselves. And perhaps to frame it a bit, because obviously it's absolutely right that we focus here on Richmond. But to frame it a bit, we also want to make the point that with all the strategic initiatives that the company has launched in the last years, we are confident to stay within the envelope of an EBITDA improvement in the midterm for Aurubis Group of €260,000,000 So even though we talk today about a certain piece of setback on Richmond, I think it's important to make the point that we are very comfortable as of today with the midterm €260,000,000 EBITDA for the group.

41:45 Okay. Great. Very clear. Thank you. And just maybe coming back in again to the bigger picture here and the implications for the project. So maybe taking the midpoint of what may be the new target contribution for EBITDA and then also considering, guess, latest or the last disclosed budget and cost inflation, maybe also the higher start up costs, it becomes technically quite difficult for the projects to still hit the 15% ROCE target, which you have on group level. And I guess the project has been footing on the view that there is abundant availability of scrap and all that has been part of the reason for cutting the EBITDA target. So I guess unless something materially changes, the logical conclusion would be that building another recycling smelter in The U. S.

42:32 May no longer make sense. I guess what are your thoughts here? And how does this impact your ambition to do another growth project in The U. S. At all? Would be great to have your thoughts on that side. Outlook on The U. S. Market and the evaluation of different strategic alternatives has not changed. The demand for copper in The U. S. Will grow strongly over the next years and decades driven by, you know, data centers, energy infrastructure and defense. And recycling will is and will stay an important pillar to satisfy that demand. So operating a metallurgical plant, we have to, like we said, adapt and fine tune. But our view on The U. S. Market, it remains unchanged. We continue to explore opportunities to grow further in The U. S.

43:30 By rebuilding the Richmond business, and we see U. S. As an effective growth region. And these strategic alternatives, as we said before, consider different alternatives, which also could potentially include another recycling starting capacity. Okay. Just, again, like, from from taking the parameters on the existing projects where you have visibility, again, you're not hitting your 15% return target. And I guess, just then the logic that, again, also the recycling smelter, you would only do if you would get government support? We To correct the budget and capital density? Know, we take a more long term view, and, you know, there could be also synergies between different facilities and other strategic aspects. So we see here not only the midterm view of our return on capital but also the long term and strategic view. And under this consideration, it could definitely make sense.

44:35 And if I may add, I think you were also referring to subsidies, right? We have made the point that for Richmond, we basically did not enjoy large scale subsidy programs that in the meantime have evolved. So if we were going on with something, let's say one of our key considerations would obviously be to become eligible to attractive U. S. Government support, and that could perhaps bridge a certain gap. Okay, great. Thanks so much for taking my question. Thank you. And the next question goes to Bank of America Jason Fairclough.

45:22 Your line is open. Good afternoon, folks. Thanks so much for the presentation. I'm afraid I'm going to jump on the Richmond train as well, if that's okay. But I try to keep my questions kind of short. Just in terms of the capital employed, and maybe this is one for Stefan. What is the capital employed today for Richmond? And what will it be by the time the facility is fully ramped up? Hello? Jason, we understood very clearly your question. And I just look at the colleagues to give me the figures. So if you have further questions, then go ahead with your further ones and we'll get to you obviously in very few minutes.

46:17 Okay. So second question then. So your new guided earnings, triple digit millions. I think previously, you and I talked about, you know, €2,400 per ton of blister didn't feel like it was a credible one. If I pick a number and let's call it a €120,000,000, still €1,700 per ton of blister feels to to me quite aggressive versus other recycling operations. So I'm interested to to understand why you still think this facility can be so much more profitable than other recycling operations? Yeah, Jason, I remember very well the exchange we had on that and accompanied by a very nice pre auction in your office. I remember that well.

47:07 Yes, I mean, if you look at The U. S. Recycling market and RC, The U. S. Market versus other regions of the world, you definitely see a gap or let's say a uptick on the margin on RCs in The U. S. And this is still the case. Actually, when we updated our business case, we were quite happy with the commercial terms we are seeing. What has changed as a part of the update and Torres has alluded to that is rather the mix of the cold feed, but it's not the commercial terms. So in a nutshell, commercial terms that we are seeing are quite favorable and different than in other regions of the world.

48:01 Second piece to your question is that with the setup of Richmond, we are basically targeting especially those pieces of the value chain that are quite interesting and that's why as of today Richmond is not going all the way until the anode and the cathode because that part of the value chain that Richmond is addressing is it's a more profitable one. And obviously metal result and metal price development is really supporting the case here. If we think about the de rating of the profit Sorry, go ahead. Sorry, Chase.

48:46 Your question on capital employed for Richmond is around 800,000,000 to $850,000,000 Okay. Thank you. In terms of the de rating of the profitability, is it higher operating costs or we actually just going to end up with lower blister production? Both. Both. Okay. And I guess lastly, to come back to this tariff question, where are you Sorry, James, I need to be more precise. It's both pieces. So to say it's higher cost, and it's on the revenue side, it's lower revenues, but it's not lower quantities, but it's lower revenues because of unfavorable mix.

49:37 And so should I read into that that there's less pressures than you thought there might be? No, that relates to, you know, we need to show a certain piece of flexibility on the input mix. So we need to deviate a bit from the core feed we initially had in mind and with let's say alternative feed, there is from a margin perspective a less favorable mix than in the initial business case. Okay. So last one, I don't know where you guys are with thinking about tariffs. You know, if we get tariffs in The US, do you need to think about building a copper refinery? Can you build a 60,000 or 70,000 ton copper refinery? Is that too small?

50:37 Yes. Of course, we can build that. No, we haven't specified the tonnage, but it would be at least that range what you said. Okay. And in terms of as it stands today, you're shipping blister copper out of The U. S. And of course the blister copper is full of good stuff. Is there any, let's say, concerns around that from the US administration that they're losing critical minerals to Europe? Jason, the the blister we are producing, they they have all, you know, all the valuable metals in it, as you know, like gold, silver, and other precious metals.

51:30 And in order to unlock the value from the blister and to capture the synergy potential, that we also, you know, we ship this to Europe and use the capabilities there, but we also have then the possibility to ship back to The U. S. The finished product. So this is how the whole value chain will be envisioned to work in the future. Okay, thanks. I'll let somebody else have a turn. But I appreciate the thoughts, folks. Thank you very much. Just a quick reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star, nine and pound key on your telephone keypad. You could also use the dial in function in the webcast and raise your hand. The next question goes to Adana Okoku from Morgan Stanley.

52:18 Your line is open. Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I think we've touched a lot on Richmond, but I just have one follow-up on that mix point. Can you just give a bit more detail on what exactly has changed on the mix from your initial assumptions? And is there anything, especially maybe with regards to policy that could change or increase your flexibility on the mix that you thought you might have had? You know, the effects cannot be isolated, you know, as all the aspects are interconnected.

53:04 And the market remains dynamic, so we deal with what we have today. We and we have entered the market now on a broader scale. We have built clearer view on the raw material qualities and which of them fit best in the current operational phase of our plant. And the other raw material streams are mostly alloy scraps where different metals need to be separated in our process. So we are still in this process. We are convinced that we have an attractive offering to many of our suppliers. However, we need to bear in mind that existing buyers are adapting their commercial terms as well in order to keep the material flowing.

53:51 So it's a complex subject, and the raw material is complex. We have, like Stefan has said, we have some, you know, some minor deviations in in our assumptions or compared to our assumptions in the feed mix. It is, you know, for us, the most profitable, of course, if we have more complex materials, which have higher metal, higher precious metal content. And here, we are seeing some deviations, which is a little bit unfavorable, but nothing to be concerned about. Okay. Thank you. And then maybe just on sulfuric acid. So we've touched at the kind of quarter over quarter improvement. Is there any way you can help us to quantify this? And just especially on the contracts, should we still assume that this is 85% contracted? Or have you perhaps shifted slightly more to spot pricing?

54:54 And then also on this, thinking about the step up into Q1 as well, is it fair to assume that's similar to the quarter over quarter step up we're seeing this quarter? Or how can we compare these? Well, as we have said, you know, for this fiscal year, the majority, around 85% our contracts for the FURIG asset, the sales of FURIG asset have already been contracted. So we only enjoy a minor part of our exposure to spot pricing even though we benefit it, but it's a minor part in the next fiscal year. There's also a certain part contracted already, but there, we will enjoy a larger portion of our contracts where we are negotiating right now in the coming months to be not at spot rate, but at, of course, higher prices than we have contracted for this year.

55:57 Okay, thank you. And anything, any color on the quarter over quarter developments or? Yes, I can give you a bit of color here. I would think that the sulfuric acid piece in Q4 will contribute. If we look Q4 in Q3, I would see an upside of a small double digit figure out of sulfuric assets Q4 over Q3. That's I think what we can say and perhaps to give one more data point for the full year, for this fiscal year, the full fiscal year, which could be in the ballpark of $180,000,000 out of sulfuric acid.

56:49 That's very helpful. Thank you very much. Next question goes to Maxime Cobre from ODDO. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, gentlemen. So my first question is a follow-up on the growth project envelope. So we are firmly you reaffirmed the target to reach €260,000,000 and that despite the lowering of the target for Richemont, but that implies that all the projects are running ahead of expectation. Can you perhaps shed some light there on which projects are performing versus your expectations? I guess CRH is a big building block, but is there any other project that is performing better?

57:40 You're right. We talk about 11 strategic projects. In the midterm, the total contribution for the sum of them is the €260,000,000 which we confirm as well today. And Richmond is one of them, obviously, most prominent one, but one of them. So what are projects that what are other projects and where are they on the contribution. I would refrain from now giving figures on all the 11, but I would love to do it a bit more qualitatively. The ones that I would like to highlight in terms of country upside contribution potential is CRH, so complex recycling Hamburg, that is a very successful project. Project just has started.

58:36 Another one I would like to highlight is also what Tarl mentioned in his speech is the tank house expansion in Peelhoek, where obviously the upside is on getting out a significant amount of cathodes. And this coupled with a nice copper price helps us also on the EBITDA line. And then I would mention two more recent projects that are already ramped up and a few months more already in operations on the Belgian side, ASPA and VOB, that are also now delivering up to their plans and also delivering pieces of contribution that help delivering the €260,000,000 figure.

59:27 Okay. That's helpful. Yes. And second question is on the concentrated services. So you've hinted that some structural changes going on there. So we've seen actually Antofagasta agreeing on an index based system for its Phase II contracts with the smelters. Let's see what the negotiations about the new yearly benchmark is expected somewhere in October. But do you see a risk of the whole market price switches to an index price and index based pricing systems for T Cell Cs and that would make obviously more difficult for you to impose yearly or multi yearly contracts, which has been your way of operating up to now? Maxime, as we always said, you know, our long term portfolio and capability to treat more complex materials when it comes to concentrates enables us to get better terms than the spot prices that are indicated on market.

1:00:28 However, we cannot escape the fact that the availability, like you said, on concentrate is tight, and that puts pressure on our terms. From today's perspective, we need to assume that the negative TCR environment will play a role in our negotiations for concentrate supplies in the calendar year 'twenty seven. At the same time, however, the miners are also looking to secure sulfuric acid supply where, as we said, where the market is clear. Both markets are somewhat interwined, and those might be the subject of our talks with with the wine suppliers. Wine supply and refined copper production are connected as well, and so this all plays into a role.

1:01:17 So while we expect that the negative TCR trend on spot prices will continue for a while, so we don't expect there a short term recovery. Like we always said, we are not linked to the spot prices when we do long term contracts. And with the additional negotiation subject of sulfuric acid, we think we have a good basis here to come to, let's say, you know, good agreements for Aurubis in the in relation to the current market environment. Okay. That's helpful. And just for recap on that, you mentioned that the two subjects in the sulfuric acid anti sources are intent wide but I would have thought that sulfuric acid was only needed for leaching operations by the miners. It's not necessarily the same miners that need sulfuric acid and those that tend to use a concentrate. So could you share us with us the share of sulfuric acid within your mix that is sold to to to the minus? Or or is that some somehow secret?

1:02:34 Maxine, we don't we don't give these concrete numbers, but but you're right. It's a smaller part of our business, of our, you know, of our total sales of sulfuric acid. The the share of sulfuric acid we sell to mines is a smaller share. And as you know, the mines, they do both. You know, they leach they do the leaching process, and they also produce concentrates. Okay. I I stop it here. Thank you. Before moving on to the last question that's submitted, just a quick reminder, star, nine and pound key on your telephone keypad for asking a question. You The question goes to Kepler Cheuvreux.

1:03:25 Your line is open. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Just a very quick follow-up on Richmond to check that I understand quickly. So your first assumption was on certain quality of mix. So now my understanding would be that you are missing in this mix maybe some precious metal contents that would explain the double digit structural decrease in your EBITDA midterm contribution? Yes, that's the first question. Just to check. You're right, Boris.

1:04:14 It's on the one hand, it's the content of certain metals, but also it's the Ts, it's the RCs, and other terms in the condition. So it's not only that, but that's also part of it. Okay. And do you think you might find a solution if the United States government further increases the refrains the capacity to export recycling materials that you would keep better, better kind of materials for the domestic market that would improve your metrics going forward? Or is it unlikely? Yes. This would be conceptually positive for us because it increases, consequently, of course, the availability of all sorts of recycling materials and also of more complex materials. So this would be positive for us, yes.

1:05:12 Yes. And maybe a word on free cash flow. So you're guiding for free cash flow before dividend payments being at least breakeven this year despite the minus $365,000,000 year to date figure. So that means a strong reversal in Q4 for net working capital, guess. But I was wondering, looking at your CapEx number, it's 373Year to date. It seems to be behind the intended number of $670,000,000 Do you stick to that guidance? Or what could be the right number to look at in CapEx? Yes, that would be that. Yeah, well spotted Boris.

1:06:01 So on the CapEx side or let's say the cash CapEx, it's not likely that we will, let's say, spend that much in Q4 that would remain to, let's say, the old target. So let's say there, as of today we think that cash CapEx could be probably below €600,000,000 so this will also obviously then support the free cash flow generation. And then generally on let's say the general improvement on working ourselves down from seasonally high stock levels. So we have a clear plan how to reduce working capital and deliver on the full year target.

1:06:49 So it's about destocking of inventory. It's about selling our copper products into the market. For example, in copper products, in the summer period, there's less of a production here due to German summer and Belgium summer vacation schedules. So we had more on stock. That's kind of a usual thing. So it's about now selling those highly attractive copper products to the markets, being it on the rod and shape side, being it on the cathode side. Second point is a clear targeted decrease of intermediates. So let's say we have a clear plan as we speak. Working capital is going in the right direction.

1:07:37 And this coupled with what you spotted well on, let's say, the cash CapEx, all that together makes us confident that we will achieve free cash flow target of at least breakeven before DV this year. Okay, very clear. Thank you. And the last question is on TC. How much does it represent today of the group's gross margin? And do you confirm it cannot go below zero? Yeah. I mean, on the first piece of your question, we you saw that on page eight from a gross margin perspective, TCRC for both businesses was let's say 21% and as we talk about TCRCs, so then we focus on the CSP segment and there on page 10, we saw that TCRCs for the primary side, this is where the pressure is, were let's say only 12% and I cannot confirm that it will never be zero.

1:08:54 Yes. But it should never go below zero. I mean, we see negative spot rates on the markets. Is there a possibility that one day your contracts might include negative commercial terms or do you have a sort of a floor? If the spot level is super negative and I mean we will always differentiate ourselves, emancipate ourselves visibly from let's say almost spot market level but if a spot market level is very depressed we can also not rule out that it would be zero or a bit below zero but it will always be significantly better than a Very, spot market very helpful. Thank you very much.

1:09:50 So that was the last submitted question. We do still have some time, so I will repeat the key combination in case anyone has some follow-up question. If you would like to ask a question, please press star, nine and pound key on your telephone keypad. You could also use the dial in function in the webcast and raise your hand if you would like to ask a question by phone. I repeat, star, nine and pound key on your keypad. We have Bastian from Deutsche Bank back on the line. Please go ahead. Yes. Hi. Thanks for taking my follow-up question. Just a very quick one on CapEx. Stefan, you mentioned CapEx will now be around 600,000,000 or actually below. So does that mean that the €70,000,000 will be moved to next year's budget? So next year will be more like $6.20 or so? Or is this a cut elsewhere which is sustainable?

1:10:55 Sebastian, you can rely on our ambition that we want to build the curve of bringing CapEx down. So we are not guiding today, but our ambition is that next year should not be above this year. Okay. Got you. Thank you. Last question from Maxime Oto. You are on the line. Yes. If I can stay on the subject of sulfuric acid because I think you said that you will finish the year with about €200,000,000 of 180,000,000 of sulfuric acid contribution. But if we look at the spot prices in Europe multiply that by your sulfuric acid production here we had close to $800,000,000 of revenues there. And my understanding is that there are very limited associated costs. So is that a credible figure somehow if prices stay where they are now?

1:12:01 Or is there anything we should be aware of to not I mean to apply some kind of discount these prices. And, Tim, as we said before, you know, the vast majority of our exposure this year has been already fixed or covered by long term contracts, which were fixed before the sharp increase of the prices for sulfuric acid. And secondly, also when we go into negotiations for the remainder of the part and also for next year, you know, we are, I want to say, almost also interested in long term relationship with our customers. So we're trying to take not too much advantage of the current spot price situation.

1:12:55 Okay. That's helpful. Oh, thank you everyone for your questions on participation. And with that, I hand over to your host. The IR team will, of course, be happy to answer any further questions you may have. I would now like to close today's conference call and thank you for your attention. Enjoy the rest of the day. Thank you and goodbye.