Arcelik A.S. (BIST:ARCLK) Q4 2021 Earnings Call

0:00 Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Maria, your chorus call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the RSILIC conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the full year 2021 financial results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Paulette Sen, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Oskar Siemen, Finance and Enterprise Risk Director and Mr. Öktem Soylumez Senior Investor Relations Specialist. Mr. Sen, you may now proceed.

0:32 Thank you very much. Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2021 results webcast. I'm here with Özkan and Öktem. First of all, I'd like to take the opportunity to thank all of our employees for their hard work and dedication through this 2021. I'll start with the highlights of the fourth quarter. Our consolidated net sales was 22.5 billion TL in this very, very challenging quarter, registering 69% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter growth, while the growth was 42% year-on-year organically.

1:22 In Turkey, MDA6 market has experienced pull-forward demand, particularly in November and December, with higher inflation expectations. As expected, the demand was contracted in European markets in fourth quarter on a yearly basis. Our EBITDA margin was 9.4% in the last quarter of 2021, bringing the annual margin to 10.6%, which is in line with our guidance of around 11%. In fourth quarter 21, there were two one-off items which will be discussed later. Excluding the impact of those one-off items, the EBITDA margin was 8.1% in Q4 and 10.1% in 2021.

2:07 Our OPEX to sales ratio in Q4 went up by 271 basis points to 23.8% compared to the last quarter, while slightly improved on the yearly basis. On an annual basis, the ratio was improved by 169 basis points to 22.7% in 2021. Networking capital to sales ratio was 26.3% in the last quarter, flattish compared to a quarter ago, and in line with our guidance with no major deviation. The leverage was realized at 2.4 times in 2021.

2:55 If the value of the shares bought back as of year end was added back, it would have 0.26 times positive impact on the leverage and bring it to 2.14 times. Also, adding 0.29 times positive impact of annualized EBITDA and cash contribution of our recent acquisitions The leverage would go further down to 1.86, which is much more comparable to last year number. In November, Arçelik's approach of placing sustainability at the center of its business has been awarded with two important initiatives. Arçelik has registered the highest score in Dow Jones Sustainability Index in its industry and awarded his Royal Highness of the Prince of Wales, Terra Carta Seal.

3:48 Next slide, please. Before going into operational and financial details, I'd like to open up this sustainability awards a little bit more. We are more than happy to increase our score by seven points compared to 2020 and to achieve being the highest scoring household durables company in Dow Jones Sustainability Index. Having the highest score, in three years in a row as of 2021 was a powerful indicator of Arcelik's commitment to a sustainable future. In November, Arcelik was one of the 45 companies across the world who has been awarded His Royal Highness, the Prince of Wales, Terracotta Seal. Terracotta Seal recognizes global companies which are driving innovation and demonstrating their commitment to and momentum towards The creation of genuinely sustainable markets.

4:49 We are very proud to be the first and only company of our industry across the world and to be the first and only company in Turkey which received the seal. Our net sales on a consolidated basis increased by 69% year-on-year to 22.5 billion TL in Q4 2021, while the growth was 24% on QoQ basis. The main drivers of the growth were TL depreciation on both QoQ and annual wise. Price increases on both quarter and quarter and year on year, and inorganic growth volume also contributed to the growth. Organically, the growth was standing at 42% year on year.

5:47 Consolidated gross profit margin was 28.8% in fourth quarter, slightly better than on a quarterly basis, while significant rise significant rise in the raw material prices coupled with the Turkish lira depreciation was the main reason of 726 basis points contraction year on year. Additionally, normalized capacity utilization rate and strong US dollar against euro were also having negative impact on gross margin. On the right hand side, you can see consolidated EBITDA margin In the last quarter of 2021 EBITDA margin was 9.4% down by 47 basis points quarter on quarter, including 129 basis points positive impact of one of items in fourth quarter. On a yearly basis, despite having better OPEX to sales ratio, significantly increased raw material costs resulted in 513 basis points contraction in the EBITDA margin.

6:58 Negative goodwill of Whirlpool Manisa plant acquisition and the sale of subsidiary VAT were the main one of items that created the positive impact of 129 basis points. Excluding this, EBITDA margin was 8.1% in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, 271 basis points of deterioration in OPEX to sales was mainly due to higher guarantee installation and transportation and advertising expenses. Let me move to the next slide, please. I'll continue with the domestic market. In fourth quarter, despite having quite a high base, Turkish MDA 6 market was down only by 1% in unit terms.

7:48 Particularly starting from November, the market experienced pull-forward demand with consumers' anticipation of further increasing prices. In November and December, the market was up by 7% and 8%, respectively, which had limited the further contraction, as previous quarters actually again outperformed the market and strengthened its market share. Turkish MDA6 market was up by 9% year-on-year in 2021, while Archilic grew by 15%. Pool forward demand also was experienced in the AC market. Market grew by 34% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, while our AC sales have increased by 27%.

8:37 TV market continued to shrink in the fourth quarter. Next slide, please. When we move on to the European market, in fourth quarter, the demand of the majority of the European countries were contracted on a yearly basis, mainly attributable to the strong base in 2020. In Western Europe, consumer demand was growing in France, Belgium and Italy. While there was contraction in UK, Germany and Spain in 2021 on a yearly basis. In Eastern Europe, sellouts were quite strong despite the high base and up by mid to high single digits 2021 year on year.

9:29 Major markets such as Russia, Poland, Ukraine and Romania were contributing to that strong demand in Eastern Europe, each of them contributing at different degrees. With our Beko brand, we have captured the market leadership position in France in 2021 and strengthened our market leadership position in the UK. In Eastern Europe, except for Poland, the demand in other major countries such as Russia, Romania and Ukraine have contracted. On an annual basis, 2021 has been a year of growth for all these countries. Beko continued its leadership position in Poland, while Romanian local hero Arctic and Beko brand keep their first and second position in Romania.

10:19 Next slide, please. The share of European markets in our total sales was 45% in the fourth quarter, of which 31 was coming from Western Europe and 14 from Eastern Europe. As demand was weaker in Western European countries on both quarterly and yearly basis in fourth quarter, Archelik benefited from acquiring Whirlpool Manisa factory. The additional units provided by that acquisition and the price increases were the main drivers of the revenue growth of around 1% quarter on quarter and 10% year on year euro terms. With our Beko brand, we have captured the market leadership position in France in 2021 and strengthened our market leadership position in the UK.

11:15 In Eastern Europe, our revenue has grown by almost 5% on a quarterly basis and 3% on a yearly basis in the fourth quarter, mainly thanks to the price increases. Beko continued its leadership position in Poland, while our Romanian local euro Arctic Brent is first and second position. When I moved to Africa, Middle East and APEC, having a total of 8% share in our consolidated sales, Africa and Middle East region posted 14% quarterly and 2% yearly growth in the fourth quarter in Euro terms.

12:00 DeFi net sales in South Africa and units sold increased by double digits. in Q4 2021, thanks to the positive impact of Christmas and Black Friday. In 2021, despite the challenging operating environment, DeFi was able to post double-digit revenue growth compared to 2020. As of 2021, DeFi strengthened its leadership position in South Africa with significant market share gains. In Egypt, net sales declined in the fourth quarter on a quarterly basis almost 15% in Euro terms due to off-season impact. On the other hand, on a yearly basis, sales were up by 60% thanks to price increases together with higher Beko share in a growing market.

12:51 Beko Egypt succeeded to increase its market share, particularly in cooling and dishwasher categories, and Beko became market leader in dishwasher category as of fourth quarter. Apex sales continue to have larger share in our consolidated net sales with Arcelik Itaci contribution. In the fourth quarter, Arcelik Itaci net sales have increased by a high single digit in Euro terms, generating 13% of our total sales. Despite the challenging fourth quarter due to inflationary pressure, together with the off-season impact, our sales in Pakistan with Dolans brand posted 21% growth in Euro terms in fourth quarter year on year, bringing yearly growth to 65% in 2021. Thanks to both, again, the price increases and the growth in units that we have sold.

13:54 Singer in Bangladesh net sales was contracted in mid single digits in Bangladesh Taka terms mainly due to the ongoing pandemic impact with the help of strong first and second quarter Singer Close 2021 with mid single digit higher revenue on a yearly basis. I'll continue with the raw material prices. In this quarter, average metal price index was softened moderately compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to the increase in capacity usage in China. On the contrary, as we mentioned in the previous quarters, the energy crisis that the world has been facing with for a while, coupled with the power cuts in China, within the scope of its blue sky motto, had a negative impact on especially the plastic prices in the fourth quarter.

14:54 Now I'm going to hand over to Özkan to take you through the numbers, then I'll take over again on the guidance side.

15:01 Thank you, Polat. I will continue with the sales bridge and growth slide. In Q4, Turkey's sales grew by 48.4% year on year with the impact of price increases and the pull forward demand. International sales grew by 78%. Out of this growth, 38.6% was coming from the acquisition. Again, a similar ratio, 37.9 was FX impact as a result of significant Turkish trade depreciation in the last quarter, and 1.1% was organic. On the right-hand side, you can see our regional sales breakdown. With the recent acquisitions, we have more diverse operating geographies. The share of Turkey in total sales has gone down by 4% to 31% in 2021 versus 2023.

15:54 If we move to the next slide, summary of financials, here you can see the summary of our Q4 and full year 2021 financials. Figures include the impact of our acquisitions. As mentioned in the beginning of our call today, recent acquisitions, price increases and Turkish trade depreciation in Q4 resulted strong revenue growth of 69% on a yearly basis and 24% on a quarterly basis. Excluding the contribution of acquisitions, organic growth was 42% year-on-year. Following 28% year-on-year growth in 2022, Archelik was able to register quite solid growth of 67% in 2021 and reached 68 billion TL net sales.

16:46 Our consolidated growth margin was 28.8% in Q4, bringing 2021 growth margin to 30%, reflecting 375 base points contraction on a yearly basis. This contraction was mainly as a result of the increase in the raw material prices. In Q4, EBITDA margin was contracted by 47 base points, quarter on quarter, to 9.4%. which is mainly due to a higher OPEX compared to Q3. Excluding 129 basis points positive impact of one-off items, the EBITDA margin was 8.1%. And we had two one-off items, as Polat has mentioned, and the impact of those was 25 basis points of our subsidiary sales, Watts. and 104 basis points was coming from negative Goodwill of Whirlpool Manusafactor Acquisition.

17:51 Despite having improved OPEX phase ratio in 2021 full year, the hit in the growth margin driven by higher raw material costs reflected into annual EBITDA margin as well. In 2021, EBITDA margin was decreased by 309 basis points to 10.6%. Excluding one-off impact, EBITDA margin was 10.1% in 2021. If we go to the net income line, which is 893 million in Q4, including 292 million of one-off impact, net profit margin was sluttish compared to Q3.

18:36 while down by 481 basis points year on year. As of 2021, we have recorded 3.3 billion net profits, which is 4.8% of our revenue and 13% higher than last year. Net profit contribution coming from our acquisitions were 302 million in Q4 and 357 million in full year. Next slide, leverage slide and our growth depth slide. Our leverage was 2.4 times as of end of 2021. Despite cash outs of acquisitions and recognizing only six months of EBITDA and cash contribution from the acquired companies and buyback program, our leverage was still within healthy levels.

19:32 We have continued buyback in the last quarter of 2021 And our buyback at year end has reached around 5.4% of the total shares. When the total value of the shares acquired as of last year is deducted from net debt, the leverage will be down by 0.26 times. which takes us to 2.14 times. In addition to that, annualized EBITDA and cash contribution of the acquisitions would have 0.29 times positive impact on leverage. Thus, if we take into account of those calculations, the leverage will be 1.86 times.

20:19 On the right hand side, you can see our loan and bond portfolio. As of end of 2021, we have 31 billion Turkish Lira equivalent debt. And 27% of that debt is in Turkish Lira. We are financing our Turkish business working capital needs with Turkish Lira loans. The new loans in Q4 were limited. Therefore, we have been able to maintain a flat Turkish Lira effective interest rate around 18%. As of end of 2021, we have 16 billion Turkish lira cash in our balance sheet. Well diversified between currencies and 17% of our total cash is in hard currency. Turkish lira share is 8% only.

21:09 Next slide is EBITDA margin and working capital sales ratio. As mentioned previously, consolidated ABTA margin was contracted on a quarterly basis, mainly due to higher OPEX sales ratio. COPEX to sales ratio was flattish in 2021. Having a low base in 2020, last year, the increase in net working capital resulted in negative free cash flow of $3 billion in 2021. So I will leave the word to Polat for the guidance. Thank you, Özkan.

21:48 For 2022, we are expecting our Turkey revenues to be increased around 35% year on year, Turkish lira terms, mainly driven by price increases and mixed improvement. We do not really expect a market growth. So we have assumed a stagnant market, let me say. We expect our international revenues to be increased by 20% year-on-year in FX terms, including the revenues from Arçelik Hitaci and Arçelik Manisa factory, thanks to price increases and mixed improvement and better market conditions. On a consolidated basis, we expect our revenues to be increased by more than 60% year-on-year in Turkish lira terms.

22:42 In 2022, since near future holds a lot of uncertainties, we aim to sustain our EBITDA margin at around 10.5%, including the effects of the new acquisitions. In terms of net working capital to sales, we aim to keep around 25% and which we are believing is the healthy and sustainable level for Arçelik. Our CAPEX guidance remains the same as last year at 220 million euros. So I'd like to hand over for Q&A. Thank you very much for listening to us.

23:28 The first question is from the line of Demirtas Kemal with Atta Invest. Please go ahead.

23:35 Thank you for the presentation. My first question is regarding your guidance. Roughly, what was your current expectation or assumption for this estimate for consolidated revenue growth more than 60%? And the other question is about The margin pressure, do you see further margin pressure in first quarter and any color on the demand side in the first quarter at least in January? Thank you.

24:13 Okay. I'll leave the currency assumption to Özkan. I'll answer the second question that you have asked. The margin pressure, of course, it will continue. It seems like it will continue. But I have to say that with the price increases, especially at the end of December, I think that we have been able to overcome some of the margin issues that we have. And starting from January out of Turkey, we have been increasing prices in almost all the markets. So that is going to ease some of the margin pressure. So because almost all countries are experiencing inflationary problems and that kind of price increases in an inflationary environment is easy to pass on, I have to say.

25:11 so that's why quarter one we do not expect further contraction in the margin side so it's not going to be that because quarter four it was a little bit unexpected actually this currency depreciation it came so quickly that in order for us to take action it took time that's why actually our fourth quarter margins even though It was a very turbulent quarter, especially in Turkey. I think that we have been able to keep the margins at a healthy level. On the demand side in Q1, yes, we do not really see a big increase in demand.

26:00 Actually, our expectation, especially in the domestic market, maybe in the first quarter a little bit contraction, but it is still too early to say something. The January results are not so Let's say we don't see contraction January results, but in coming February and March We really have to see what will happen, but we do not really expect a huge Contraction in the market in quarter one. That's what I can say in Turkey out of Turkey The the our expectation for the markets is some you know single mid- to low-digit increases in most of the markets that we are operating in.

26:56 Özkan? In our guidance calculations, we have assumed the average rate to increase around 50%, 5-0%. Also, we need to take into account that some of the countries that we operate The emerging markets might have comparably lower weak currency to euro and dollar. So therefore, we assume at least 50%, close to 50% depreciation compared to average rate of 2020. Or Turkish lira. Or Turkish lira.

27:42 Okay, so the ethics against Turkish Lira will appreciate by 50%. Do you mean that?

27:51 Average to average, yes. That is the assumption he had. Okay, that's very good.

27:58 And as a follow-up, regarding your depreciation, I see increasing the depreciation expense in fourth quarter, if I'm not mistaken. What was the reason for that?

28:16 Actually, in terms of sales, there is no big increase. But what I can say is in the last quarter, we had some capitalizations which were in the balance sheet with a higher currency rate. So that increased the depreciation a little bit. But as a percentage of sales, we don't have a big change.

28:44 Because I'm looking at the quarter, the numbers in the first three quarters, you had around 1.2 billion and I see more than 60,650 million Turkish lira. That's what I thought. Maybe it's related to ethics then.

29:04 It's mostly related to the ethics because of the capitalization with the higher value of Turkish lira.

29:13 Thank you. And you mentioned about the domestic market. Do you mean the selling or sell-out rates that you mentioned about the, you know, the contraction? Sell-out. Sell-out. In selling side, it's still very, very strong. And despite a very significant increase last year, right? You know, as far as I remember, in the last year, in first I think it was in first two months it was more than 59 percent in January it was 59 and February it was 42 percent increase again when I look at my numbers so despite a very strong base actually it's a low season though you see some increase in sell-out selling which means you know there's a There is no inventory problem.

30:13 Do you have any idea about the inventory levels in the sector?

30:23 In the first quarter of 2021, the market was up by almost 40%. And yes, you are right to say that despite having a quite high base, we are now seeing the selling is quite strong. in the month of January.

30:44 Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Kilikiran Hanzadeh with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

30:57 Thank you for the presentation. I have three questions. The first one is related to your margin guidance drivers. Maybe I can also combine this with my second question. You are looking for around only 35% year-on-year increase in Turkish revenues, and you don't expect any volume increase. I understand you are looking for a flat volume. And that price increase is supposed to be lower than the average inflation in Turkey. So, I mean, Turkey seems to be under pressure of margin in 2022 with these price increases. Is it true how I am interpreting your revenue guidance? And second, I mean, your already realized margin excluding all these one-offs was around 10.1% for the full year. And you are now guiding 10.5% roughly in 2022. So what could drive these margins up?

32:00 I mean, this year, given that Euro may be much weaker and Turkish Euro already depreciated. So I'm trying to understand why you have I mean, like a positive outlook for 2022. And is it possible for you to, I mean, help us to understand your loan rollover and average interest costs increase in 2022 on Turkish lira? Thank you.

32:29 I'll answer the first and second one. Özkan will answer the third one. Yes, you're right. First of all, we are not assuming any volume increase in 2022 compared to 2021 in the domestic market of Turkey. So when we look at 35%, of course, if the inflation is going to be higher, that number may drive up I think that there is an upside potential in terms of growth but right now as we have done our price increases especially in 2021 the price increases came especially in the last quarter let me say So that's why there's an unbalanced impact there. That's why we are guiding for 35% on the growth side. But as you rightly mentioned, it's mainly coming from price increases and some mixed improvement as well.

33:38 Can I just confirm this? So you are planning to increase the prices at least in line with the inflation in 2022? I mean, average inflation, not the year end inflation.

33:49 Actually we have to really see, it's not the consumer price index that we are looking at as you understand. We have to check our costs because even though there is inflation, if the material costs All right, thank you. On the margin side, yes, you're right. Without the one-off impact, we are at 10.1%. And to be honest with you, in this 10.1%, Manisa and Archery Hitachi is only six months, and their average margins are lower than ours.

34:45 But in 2022, and I have to say that when we are going to 10.1%, especially third and fourth quarter, was the main factor. Actually, our first half margins were very high. But I think that we have taken necessary measures, especially beginning of the year, we have been able to increase prices in almost all the countries that we have been operating in. In Emena market, Europe and MENA markets, we have been able to, from last year to this year, we have been able to increase almost 8%, let me say not 8%, mid to high single digits in those markets.

35:32 In South Africa, we have been increasing prices and we will keep on doing that in February in order to catch up the profitability and in order to catch up with the cost. So in Turkey, we have done necessary adjustments in the prices as well. So I think we are starting the year on a right foot. It's not like the beginning of quarter four for us. We think that we have taken necessary measures, especially on the both cost side and the price side. That's why we are aiming for 10.5%. And I have to say that Without the Arcelik Hitachi and Arcelik Manisa, I think that would be, they are having a deteriorating effect of 0.5%.

36:23 When you compare our guidances in 2021, 2020 as well, it's 11% actually. With the contribution of the new acquisitions, it's going down to 10.5%.

36:41 So your margins without Hitachi and Whirlpool was around 11% in 2021? No, no, no.

36:50 It's for 2022 I was talking about.

36:53 Okay, sorry. As an effect of 1.5%. All right. Okay. All right. Thank you very much. But you still see some margin expansion, obviously, I mean, in 2022. So, okay, so you are looking for some sort of easing on the input cost?

37:09 Not we didn't actually especially in the first and second quarter. We are not really expecting a Let's say relaxation on the input material costs Maybe starting for from third quarter that would be possible in some of the materials But other than that, we do not expect this actually our main expectation is that Why we are having a better margin is that we have taken all the necessary measures, especially at the beginning of this year, and we think that is going to be helping us to achieve this margin.

37:48 Okay, thank you very much.

37:53 If you look at our Turkish Lira portfolio, loan portfolio, for this year, 2022, We have a role of 5 billion Turkish lira, mostly starting from March and each quarter we have roughly similar amount to roll. And if you look at the rate, starting from December, there was a huge increase in the market where the rates were more than 30%. However, at that period, we didn't have a big amount of loan need. But starting from March, we will face higher rates compared to our 2021 average of 18%. That means it will affect us 700 basis points minimum for the new loans.

38:44 And the total amount is, as I said, to be impacted. Thank you very much. This is not including the working capital needs of further growth.

38:56 Additional ones. All right. Okay. Thank you very much. So that means that there will be some EPS pressure in 2022 because of rising interest costs right on your projections, probably.

39:07 Yes, correct. And we are monitoring this very closely to have a long term bonds in our portfolio or have a loan from a bank.

39:21 Thank you very much Özkan Bey. We have a follow-up question from Mr. Demistaz Kemal with Atta Invest. Please go ahead.

39:30 Thank you. My question is about the effective tax rate. Did the currency change have some effects or the effective tax? I see the number below around 10% in full year. Do we expect this? trend to continue? Could we assume around 10% to 15% or any indication on the tax rate?

39:59 Thank you. Right, Canav. As you said, the effective rate is around 10%. And actually, as you will recall, this rate has been declining because of the incentives coming from Turkey business mainly. It was related to COPEX and R&D expenditures, which reduce the cumulative effect with tax rates. But as our business is growing with the other regions in the world, so that the impact of Turkish business will be limited, even though the tax rate goes down. So we can expect a similar rate in 2022 as well.

40:49 Okay, like 10%.

40:51 No, not 20%. Do you mean 10%? Or something minus 10%? I didn't get the 10% is the average of 2021.

41:05 So we can expect in a similar rate. But if the other business growth, the contribution of our non-Turkey business is higher than 2021 basis, so this will increase our effective tax rate from 10%. OK. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Sen for any closing comments. Thank you.

41:35 Right. Thank you very much for listening to us in our fourth quarter results. I hope it's going to be a better year in 2022. I wish health to everyone who is listening. Thank you very much.