AQ Group (Stockholm:AQ) Q1 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 Welcome to the AQ Group Presentation for Quarter one. Nice to see you all. It's already one minute past nine. So let's start. We will go to the first point here. Normally, I have this slide. It is why you should invest in AQ Group. We have an earnings per share CAGR of 14% over the past ten years. We have made profit every quarter since the foundation in 1994. We are exposed to industrial market segment with underlying growth: electrification, including data centers, defense and medtech. We have a long history of acquisitions. And normally, we buy two to four factories. And we have a very strong balance sheet with SEK 1,000,000,000 of net cash position, excluding leasing.

0:52 Some quick facts about AQ. We're 8,000 employees, 9,000,000,000 in turnover for the last year. We have seven business areas, 15 plus market segments with manufacturing in 17 countries with 4,000 customers globally. And then we made profit, as I said, every quarter for thirty one years. And we have, over the past ten years, had a 14% earnings per share CAGR. We make acquisitions every year. We try, and we are part of Johan Global Compact since 2012, which is our sustainability initiative. So for the first quarter, net sales increased by 3% to 2,300,000,000. It is a little bit better than last year. Median operating profit increased with 5% compared to the last year.

1:42 And also profit after financial items increased with 9% to $223,000,000. Profit margin before tax was 9.4%, which is better than last year. And profit after tax was also better than last year at SEK179 million. Cash flow from operating activities was SEK339 million, which is much better than the year before. And also, earnings per share was up to SEK1.95 per share. Some highlights from the quarter. We are growing in data centers and defense. It is a strong growth in both of those segments, a little bit different depending on geographic market.

2:30 In data centers, the main growth is coming from our inductive components business area. And on the right, you can see some different products that we deliver into different data center applications. So the top one is for electrification of data centers. So I think we will deliver of those components you see there, we will deliver more than 3,000 pieces over the course of 2026, and it is made in one of our factories in China. And the bottom part there is for heat or ventilation of data center, cooling, you can say. So it is to one of our American customers. It is a water cooled inductor. And we will deliver we will increase the demand is increasing, and we will increase our output with 100% in 2026 versus 2025.

3:24 We believe also that 2027 will be even better. So in the quarter, we have doubled the output of these big transformers that I've talked to previously, not the ones on the picture, from our sites in Hungary and Czech Republic in quarter one compared with the previous quarter, which was quarter four last year. We continue to ramp up, and we'll increase output in quarter two and quarter three as well. Then we'll also do finished products of those ones also from our factory in Finland. We have doubled the net sales for defense from our three sites in The UK compared with the same quarter last year. It is a dramatic increase, and we are growing with customers in UK predominantly, but also in Norway.

4:16 And our factory there does wire harnesses and electromechanical components for different aircrafts, a lot in the air. We also see a strong growth from our defense sites in Northern Europe, and that is predominantly in Sweden. We also see strong growth from the marine sector, naval sector in The U. S. As I said, we have 30% growth in inductive components for HVAC from our factory in Shanghai. We also have increased demand for parts for gas turbines that we do. We do very small cooling holes in gas turbine blades for the major gas turbine manufacturers in Europe and The U. S. From our site in Hungary.

5:08 We see a strong increase in demand also from this, and it is driven by data center demand. We have in our U. S. Transformer factory in Virginia, we have an extremely strong order intake in quarter one with $20,000,000 in new orders, which is a record for us. And as comparison, this factory had a turnover last year of like $35,000,000. And this is not driven by data center because they are not so much into the data center. It is, however, driven by data center as well, because data centers are sucking out all the capacity in US.

5:57 So we are delivering to other segments, but the capacity is not there. So we are basically winning everything we quote. Operating cash flow is very good in the quarter. It is driven by high profit and also increase in accounts payables. We are ordering quite a lot of material. And we normally don't order a lot of material unless we see something to deliver going forward. Are also very proud in the quarter that we have promoted several internal leaders for its different factories. We will have a new Managing Director in Italy, Lucia. We have a new Managing Director in AQ Magnitra, our transformer factory in Bulgaria, which is internally recruited.

6:46 We have a new MD in our transformer factory in Eonshopping. Valdemar is promoted there. And we have two new MDs also in Bulgaria, Anna Fristova and Ivan Kusarov. So a lot of new leaders we are promoting internally that know our core values, know how to grow the business, and we also have some people retiring then, of course. So it is fun with new leaders. And this is super important for you as an investor, more important than you think. When we have good leaders in our factories, we make profit, we grow and we have fun. Some lowlights in the quarter. We see some weaker demand in the systems business for medtech and food packaging. For medtech, it's not plummeting at all, but it's not growing as it used to. It's quite kind of flat, even though we have won some new orders in Germany for medtech customers, which we are very happy about.

7:44 Maybe come to it later. For food packaging, volumes are going our customers' volume are going down a lot, but also we have lost some business there. And it was not super profitable for us anyway. So we are, of course, disappointed in that. But we need to be in fields where there is actually money to be made. So I'm thinking that this is okay. And then we have low capacity utilization in Mexico and Plattsburgh. This is, in fact, an opportunity because it gives us an opportunity to attract new customers and sell more. And we are very happy that we have won a new order, and I will come to it later when I talk about our newly born customers and so on. Then we have a little bit lower sales for marine transformer compared to all time high level in 2024 and 2025 from our factory in Finland. Of course, that factory is now very busy in ramping up in data center transformers. So but it is anyway a lower demand at the moment, even though it's not super low, but it is not as high as last year.

8:56 And then another lowlight is we didn't make any acquisitions in the quarter. And despite the hard work that our team is putting in, and we find really nice companies, but on the other hand, we cannot buy anything. It needs to be an attractive return also for us. So if there is nothing left on the table, then after we acquire them, then we will not do it. So sometimes it's better not to do deals than to do deals if the deal is too expensive. That's how we see it. But we are working hard to do deals also in the future. And we believe that we will be able to do this. And we have a nice pipeline, I think, of interesting things that we are looking at, as always. So earnings per share has increased 14% over the past ten years, same as the dividend per share. And our target is to double it, earnings per share, every five years.

9:54 Net sales development, as communicated in the report, organic growth is 6.3%. We have acquired growth for January. Amdex and the nickel lidel is part of that. So it's 1.4. And then we have a negative currency effect of minus 4.8%, which gives the net sales growth of 2.9%, which is kind of okay, I would say. It feels like we are taking market share, but I have no data on that. Organic growth, as I said, 6.3%. It's below our target of 10%. We see high demand in defense and data centers. It will continue to grow, we believe. Of course, we have no idea we have no chance of knowing, but we believe that this will continue to grow for us. And then we have some low demand for vehicles in Mexico, food equipment, as I've said, MedTech, I've said already, and transformers for ships in Europe, I've also mentioned.

10:48 Some recent new customer wins then. So AQ Rockford in The UK has won several actually new projects, but one new project in the quarter from a Norwegian defense customer for about GBP 2,000,000. We have been awarded several new parts for Epiroc from our factory in India to their factory in India for wiring systems and sheet metal parts. We received the first order for Medtech Systems in Germany. So it is a legacy AQ customer that has ordered parts from our newly acquired company Michael Riedel in Ilshoven in Germany. And we are working together, our factory in Bulgaria, our factory in Uppsala in Sweden and AQ Riedel team in order to make a couple of good prototypes now. You can see sort of three d rendering of the product in the bottom right.

11:42 And we believe that this will be a good good it can be some good growth for us there delivering into this MedTech customer in Germany. And then we are quite happy that we have won our first order from Solaris bus in The U. S. For New York City buses from our factory in Plattsburgh, New York. And as many of you know, who has been with us for a long time, NovaBus closed down a factory in New York State a couple of years ago. And we were delivering all the wire harnesses to that factory. And now Solaris will be a new customer for us doing city buses for New York. And Solaris is a big bus manufacturer.

12:29 And we also have an opportunity now to get into that in Europe, which is good. And then we have received the first serial order from a U. S. Customer for data center transformers in the quarter. And ordered from our transformer factory. And I said that The US factory had a good order intake, and it's not data center. So a part of it is actually data center now as well. So it is a new customer, not a completely new customer for AQ, but it feels like a new customer for our American my American friends. Acquired growth. As I said before, we have several recent evaluation.

13:16 We have been bidding for a lot of companies. We have declined to increase our bid, and we have lost several cases. And yeah, it is normal as well. I mean, we look at many, many cases every week, and we decline a lot. And then we do due diligence on some, and we but currently, we haven't been able to close anything. And it's a little bit of a failure, I would say, but we're continuously to search for new potential acquisitions, and we are trying to buy companies continuously. So we think it's fun, and it is a good way for us to grow. But on the other hand, we cannot accept too high valuations either. If too much of the profit is already given to the sellers, then of course how will it improve profit per share for AQ in the short and long term.

14:14 Because in the long term, you don't know how the company will develop if you have given away the profits ten years in the future. So sometimes it's better to decline to buy than to buy. Then MTex, I think it now develops according to plan. We have a very ambitious now growth plan there because we need to get out a lot of both railway transformers and data center transformers out of this factory in the quarters to come. We have bought new equipment. Some is already in place, but we need to buy more, so we have placed orders for that. And we have recruited, I think, 50 people additional blue colors in the quarter to cope with the increased demand coming forward.

15:04 So it is a collaboration between several sites to deliver these data center transformers that we have, but also to relive a little bit our Hungarian factory from other customers, because they are the main data center supplier from our side. So it's a hard work, but it's fun work. And if we look at the earnings before tax margin development, it is very, very stable, above our target of 8%. And the margin in Q1 was 9.4%. So now we have 13 consecutive quarters above our target, which is great. I believe that our cost control is still very good. It is always good, and it will continue to be good.

15:53 We still have a dilution from Amdex, but now one year has passed, so we can't complain on that anymore. But Amdex is making profit. And the more volume we are getting in there and we are, the better the margin will be. So we believe that the margin for 2026, as I communicated earlier, will be in the range of the AQ Group target in 2026, which is a massive improvement coming from minus 7% to 8%. So the team is doing a fantastic job with this turnaround. And it will be I mean, it is I believe that we will get the money back on this acquisition faster than three years. So that is great. Then we have some underutilized factories. I write about Mexico and New York in the report, but we have also more capacity in our Bulgarian factories. We have more capacity in our Indian factories. We have more capacity in many of our factories. And of course, we can increase capacity as well. And this is a potential for future growth. But it is affecting the margin a little bit at the moment. The Mexico, New York sites are quite small, also the Indian one. The Bulgarian one is a little bit bigger. It is doing it is we are making profit, but we think we should be making more profit there.

17:09 We have some work to do. That is fun. That's why we are here. Regarding inventory value and inventory turnover, it was 3.2 in last quarter. Now it's 3.1. We have done a lot of improvements in a lot of sites. However, we are increasing now we are increasing our capabilities to deliver out more, meaning we need a bit more goods. And the way we calculated this rolling 12 backwards, so it is maybe an indication that more volumes is to come. We continue our improvement projects, and we continue to have a focus on this because we don't want to have bad inventory in our stocks. It is natural. But we I believe we have a good organization for this now. We have a very, very strong person in Gragos to to run this this project, and it it is a foundation for us to generate very good operating cash flow, which is in here. So net cash from operating activities is on a very high level in the quarter. It's not the record, but almost.

18:19 And of course, then it gives us even more cash in our balance sheet. So our net cash position, including leasing, is almost SEK 700,000,000. And if you exclude the leasing debt, then we have SEK 1,100,000,000 in cash, excluding leasing, which this gives us a very strong foundation to continue to grow in these highly high growth segments, but also possibilities within M and A, of course. So it is a good thing. We will continue to work on using this cash in a responsible manner to generate great returns for our shareholders also in the future.

19:06 But also to help our customers when they need a ramp up, can support them with that, which is great. So that was my last slide. Why invest in AQ Group? We grow earnings per share, 14, and we will continue to do so. That's the plan. And we made profit every quarter since the foundation. We have exposure to industrial market segments with a high underlying growth, and we have a long history of acquisitions. And as I said, lastly, a very strong balance sheet. Should we move into questions? Let's see. We have Albeen maybe first. Can you unmute yourself? Or do I need to help you with that? Allow microphone. Here we go. Now you can unmute yourself.

19:53 All right. Can you hear me now? Yes, I can hear you now. Nice. Thanks, James and Cristina, for that. Just to start off with Amdex. You're telling us it's profitable now getting to eight this year. Can you quantify where we are currently? I haven't really written it in the report, but what I can say is that on an EBIT level, they are doing fine. I would say we are if zero would be the bottom and 8%, it's roughly 4%, I would say, the EBIT at the moment. Okay. And that's for the quarter or for the rolling 12? That is for quarter one. All right.

20:39 And then on ABB reported yesterday, 44% up on electrification orders. How do you think that we should read in this into AQ? And what does ABB tell you, etcetera? If you have any comments on that would be great. No. But I mean, we I think I have communicated already the orders that we have on the in the data center part. We believe that we will get more orders and that, that will continue to grow. I think we are trying now to double our capacity, and we delivered out roughly 60 units for this ABB parts in the first quarter. We are trying to double that capacity now, and we are investing to do so.

21:25 And we wouldn't do that if we didn't believe that demand would come. On the yeah. And then, of course, ABB is not only data centers, but a lot of it is now driven by it. So we see a very strong order intake also in our like in our drives manufacturing facilities in Estonia and China. So that is growing that will grow very fast also in Q2. But then again, ABB is only 10% of AQ. It will maybe be more this year because they are growing so fast, doing a fantastic job. But I think yes, we have other market segments as well, of course. Yes, of course. And just to check the 60 pieces in Q1, that was 30 in Q4, right, and then doubling again in Q2?

22:18 Yes, exactly. I think we doubled in Q1, and we will double again in Q2. That is the capacity, I would say, and output. That is the wish. Yes. All right. Thanks. That's all for me. Thanks. Thank you. Let's see if we have anyone else raising the hand. We have Thomas here. I will try to now you can unmute, Thomas. There we go. Can you hear me? Yes. Great. Just a couple of questions from me. First, on the defense supply chain. I remember you spoke about capacity constraints or supply chain issues in 2025, but then again also that The U. K.

23:08 Site doubled their output for defense now here in Q1. I was wondering if you could give some like overall view on supply chain challenges, the potential here in 2026 or if we should expect sort of accelerating growth in 2027 rather than near term. I mean, we I can say like this. When things are growing fast, there will always be supply chain challenges. Anyway, the market has a tendency to overcome those challenges. And of course, we are part of that. And it's also part of our opportunity, of course, to grow more when there is when our customers have challenges to find suppliers that can deliver. So I would expect that this continues to grow in 2026.

23:54 I'm, however, uncertain of the pace of the growth because it is the our customers need to be able also to deliver out their goods. So even though we can deliver, maybe they cannot. So it is a mix. But I believe our customers in these segments, they will continue to grow. And the weapon systems that we are delivering too, they will continue to grow. So so, I mean, yeah, it will continue. But I'm reluctant to give any numbers on this because it's hard to hard to predict for me. Do you think it's, like, likely to grow more than in 2025, where you mentioned that you had a lot of capacity I think so. Okay. Lastly, just on the M and A side, I was wondering, sort of, do you have any specific strategy or targets here going forward, threshold multiples or something, considering that these multiples may stay elevated for some time if I think the multiples are very elevated, I would say, especially in the defense market.

25:02 It is crazy multiples, I would say. And it might be correct, or it might be wrong. We are, however, very careful with our shareholders' money. I would say to go now I mean, normally, we try to run-in the opposite direction of everybody else. So so so we are currently trying to find some cases within within med tech, for instance, or and then some other business areas where we are strong. So it is to to to to pay to pay, like, 10 times EBT for companies, it's not healthy in our line of business.

25:47 We don't have IP. Of course, you can have a strong position within defense, but you can't pay those multiples. That's at least not how AQ operates. I understand. Thank you. That's all from me. Thank you. Let's see if we have any other questions. Please raise your hand if you have a question. We have Jock up here. I will try to oh, dammit. Okay. Pressed the wrong button. There we go. Perfect. Thank you. I just have one question. You seldom talk a bit about the railway and rolling stock projects that you have. I mean, we saw Alstom were out adjusting their targets and talking about project delays and execution issues.

26:35 So what do you see on railway, if you look at the railway markets in general, and how you view your competitive position and so on? No. But I think there is a lot of railway projects being developed. What you can say with certainty, though, is that the railway project is always delayed. So it's nothing new for Alstom or for us. So we are involved in several projects, I would say, in mainly in Europe, India, China and The U. S. And I think there are, for sure, delays. And but on the other hand, we have, I think, a quite strong project pipeline at the moment.

27:24 So I'm thinking it's going okay for us. I mean it's we are making profit. And here, it's like with defense, it's very hard to predict when the projects will be delivered because it's we are very much dependent on our customers. And they are always postponing. And then suddenly, they catch up with their production, and then they want things faster. So it is something that we have in our pricing models and with them. And we need to be very flexible in ramping up and down quickly with these type of customers. That's good that we have also other customers, we can be flexible with our staff and move them because this is a lot we are doing for railways, assembly, sheet metal. So and we have dedicated factories for that.

28:12 We can mention, for instance, our factory in Estonia doing complex aluminum enclosures for railway with friction stir welding and so on. I mean, there, we see a very good order intake and a very good project pipeline. And most probably, we will need to expand that factory going forward in order to satisfy the demand because they're delivering also a lot to Hitachi in this factory. So it is I think railway is fun. It's very complex projects. It's always customized and it's always every time it's different. So we like that kind of projects. And I mean, just to get a sense of the magnitude, is it fair to assume that railway or these type of projects at least could be somewhere around roughly 8%, 10% would you say, of your business as of right now?

28:59 I would say that it is below 10% because other segments are growing fast and growing faster than railway. So I would say, but it is maybe it could be 10% altogether, but All right, super. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks, Jokka. Do we have any other questions? Not on this one, not here, not here and not here. Okay. Last chance. Any more questions? Thank you so much. Then see you hopefully next quarter.

29:48 Bye bye.