Academedia (Stockholm:ACAD) Q3 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 So good morning, everybody, and welcome to this call that we will present our interim report of the third quarter. And we are in the middle of the preparation, the last time of the school year, so it's really a fantastic time for us. And we've also now delivered a strong report with a stable development, focus on the future that we could do with ACADEMEA. And I will take a few starting notes and then I will hand over to Petter to present the financial result. And if we try to sum up the third quarter, as I mentioned, it's a strong and stable quarter. We have followed our strategic focus and we have delivered a lot of acquisitions.

0:49 We have this target where we should be 50% out of the Swedish schools. And we have really, really worked with this during this quarter, just during the quarter and also after the quarter. We have announced five different acquisitions in the international strategy and one in Sweden. And if you look at the number, we continue to grow in a good way. And also the financial stability has also performed in a good way. And we see good positive performance from the international operation, from the adult and from primary schools. We could continue. And of course, one key for us is the quality in the business.

1:36 And one way to look at this is to look at the Swedish school inspectors' quality reviews. And I must say that ACADEMEA DIA performs very well if we compare with the total sector. We see strong activities from the Swedish school inspection, and we think that that is very positive for the schools in Sweden. But as you see from this slide, we perform in a very good way. And if we continue then and look at what have ACADEMEA done in the history. So this is not really what I talk a lot about. You know, I've been working with the company for twenty years. But we have been, as you all know, very good to develop brand, to create organic growth, to give trust to the parents and the children, but we are also very good company to make acquisitions.

2:29 And if we look back around fifteen years, we have made 75 acquisitions, a lot of them in Sweden, but also a lot of acquisitions international. And I must say that I don't want I want to be humble, that's a part of my person, but I must say that we are maybe the best to acquire education companies in Europe. And if you look at all of these companies that we have acquired, we also have the performance to develop the quality, the growth in the different brands. So ACADEMEA DEA is a strong company when it comes to acquisitions. And then we also have expanded in different countries. So it's not so easy as to start a business in other countries. We see a lot of Swedish and other companies trying to build up markets in other countries. And we build our ability and to start with strong relations.

3:23 If we look at the management team that we have in Germany, The Netherlands, we have known them for many, many years. And then we start with this platform acquisitions. And over the year, we have developed a very strong business now in four different countries. And we also have focus both in Poland and in The Netherlands. And what we think is the right thing to do now when we have built up this strong management teams, then it's time to grow, then it's time to make more acquisition. And that is what you see now in Germany, in The Netherlands, because we have a strong presence. We have a strong platform to continue to grow from. And then we of course, we have focused on the international, that is our roadmap. But we have also made one acquisition in Sweden.

4:09 This is a company that I personally know for twenty years. It has been some illness among the owners and they wanted to find a new owner. And we are very happy that ACADEMEA is the new owner of Prolumpia, very well performing schools. They have 10 schools, more than 4,000 students, a long queue in all of their schools. So they are really good schools, but they also have this profile that is missing at ACADEMIADIA when it comes to sports and health. And we think that that is the right focus to build a group of schools with this platform, and we hope that this could be the base of this. We want to maybe change some of our schools in this profile, and we think that this will create also attractiveness.

4:56 We see that it will be more challenging when it comes to demographic development in some of the cities in Sweden. And we think that these schools, they really have the right position. And if you look at the long term development when it comes to ACADEMEA, we are so proud to see that we have stable financial performance. We continue to grow. We continue to follow our strategy when it comes to the international development. And all of our segments now have a very strong position. And you can see the on the next slide, you can see the performance when it comes to the number of the percentage of the companies that is outside Swedish schools. And we have also strong pipeline when it comes to make acquisitions.

5:45 And our focus here now is to enter Poland, UK and also to continue to grow in existing markets. So thank you very much. And I will hand over to our political expert, now Katov. Thank you, Markus. And good morning, everyone. Yes, so let's start to talk a bit about the political situation and investigations that we have at hand right now. As we mentioned in the last earnings call, the Swedish government presented a legislative proposal to extend the principle of publicity to include all independent educational providers in January. And the legislation is now expected to be adopted in January 2027, meaning beginning of next year.

6:33 And under this proposal, the public will have the right to request access to documents from our operations on essentially the same basis as for public authorities. And all requested documents will be subject to confidentiality assessment and formal decisions will be required in cases where information is not disclosed. So we are closely monitoring the legislative process, and we are preparing for implementation to meet the requirements in January 2027. And at this stage, we estimate that the implementation will result in a one off cost of approximately 25,000,000. The ongoing implications, however, are assessed to be manageable within existing financial frameworks and is not expected to have any material impact on the operating margins.

7:25 And then there is some update regarding the profit inquiry. There has been recent negotiations between the ruling parties and it's still ongoing as far as we know. We expect the legislative proposal in June, followed by parliamentary vote before the election with the new rules expected to enter into force in 2028. So that's the update about the investigation and we can continue to next page 10. And then I once again would like to highlight our investor podcast, which is available wherever you get your podcast. And for instance, in the latest episode, we look further into our international business together with Krastoffer Hammer, who is Director of International Operations.

8:11 And in the pod, he developed his thoughts on our international M and A. The purpose of the podcast is to engage with Swedish investors and other stakeholders through short focused episodes, delivering clear insights in just ten to fifteen minutes. And this far, we have released about or eight episodes. So please continue. Let's talk about the financials now. As Markus outlined earlier, we achieved a solid growth of 6.6 year on year. Preschool and International segment together with Primary Schools and Adult Education contributed to the positive development. And upper secondary had a softer performance where extended library staff following new legislation had a negative impact on the result.

9:00 Additionally, our adjusted EBITA margin increased to 8.2 compared to last year's 7.7%. And this means that we were reaching SEK $438,000,000 in absolute terms, up from SEK $386,000,000. The increase in profit has translated into higher free cash flow. Now turn to Page 12. In the Preschool and International segment, the increase of SEK44 million was positively impacted by increased volumes and revenue in Germany and temporary lower cost in Norwegian operations. The Compulsive School segment is up DKK10 million year over year. The Upper Secondary School segment saw a decrease in earnings of 12,000,000.

9:47 And this was primarily attributable to increased personnel costs due to expanded library staff following this new legislation and lower rental cost and improved capacity utilization had, on the other hand, a positive effect. The Delta Education continues to report strong results driven by increased volumes in higher vocational education and labor market services. And group costs increased compared to the same period last year. Non recurring items affecting comparability amounted to DKK3 million. And there was acquisitions and integration costs of SEK30 million. And there was a reversal of provision for contingent consideration amounted to SEK27 million plus.

10:38 So please continue. The twelve month rolling net sales continued to grow and amounted to SEK 19,800,000,000. The rolling twelve month adjusted EBITA amounted to SEK 1,440,000,000 and corresponding to margin of 7.3% within our profitability target of 7% to 8%. And we continue to have a solid free cash flow. Slide 14, please. And let's look at the quarter's development within each segment. So let's go to the Pre School first and International on page 16. So the number of children increased by 11.3% and our growth was primarily driven by international expansion.

11:27 The international operations account for more than 30% of the group total sales. The net sales increased by 11.3% year over year, positively affected by acquisitions. Currency changes had a negative impact of 3.5% and the organic growth was 10.4%. Adjusted EBITDA was SEK 169 compared to SEK 125 last year. And this improvement was largely driven by increased volumes and higher Schoon voucher funding in the German operation as well as temporarily lower cost levels in the Norwegian operations. If we now move on to compulsory schools on the next page, we note that minus 1.4% decrease in student numbers.

12:17 And adjusted for units that are to be closed, the number of students decreased by 0.7%. And corresponding figure for the country as a whole is 1.0% decline. Net sales rose by 3.4%, primarily explained by the annual school voucher revision and adjusted EBITA grew by 11.6% year over year, reaching million. This is corresponding to an adjusted EBITA margin of 7.9%. Please move on to Page 18 and for Upper Secondary School segment. The number of students grow here by 0.5%. We saw a stable growth in sales, while profitability was somewhat softer year over year with an adjusted EBITA of million compared with last year's DKK139 million.

13:11 Adjusted EBITA margin was 8.1%. The decrease is primarily attributable to higher costs related to the purchase of literature and the expansion of library staff, partly offset by lower rental costs and improved capacity utilization, which then had a positive effect. And then we continue to the adult education segment where we continue to see strong performance with profitability now improving for the eleventh consecutive quarter. Sales increased by 6.7% to $495,000,000, up from SEK $465,000,000, mainly attributable to higher volumes in higher vocational education and labor market services. Adjusted EBITA came in at million, up 19.6% year over year.

14:01 The adjusted EBITA margin amounted to 13.5%, up from 12% in the same period last year. And just to remind, the second half year includes more courses that are completed resulting in a lower capacity utilization. This mainly affects the fourth quarter to come. Please continue to next page, financial position. And we look at the free cash flow and investments on page 21. The free cash flow for the last twelve months amounts to SEK 1,444,400. The free cash flow as a percentage of EBITDA 74%. Maintenance CapEx as a percentage of sales continued to decline. This is a consequence of fewer new openings and expansion units.

14:50 We continue to next page, 22, the financial position. Net debt excluding IFRS 16 increased by $5.00 8,000,000 compared to last year with a leverage ratio excluding IFRS 16 at 0.9, still well below the financial target of less than three. The increase in net debt to EBITDA is mainly explained by the acquisitions made during the quarter. And finally, on Page 23, our financial performance against targets. Our last twelve month organic growth, including small bolt on acquisitions stands at 5.6%, within our financial target of 5% to 7% growth. Our adjusted EBITA margin amounts to 7.3% within our target range of 7% to 8%.

15:42 And under our former profitability target of adjusted EBIT, which is typically 20 basis percent lower than adjusted EBITA, this would also have been within the target range. The leverage ratio of 0.9 remains well below the required threshold of 3%, leaving further rooms for acquisitions when opportunities occur. And with these words, we end the presentation and we open up for questions. The next question comes from Philip Eckengrin from ABGSC. Please go ahead.

16:29 Yes, good morning guys. First of all, Norwegian operations were again flagged as benefiting from, I think you're right, temporary lower cost levels. Could you please quantify the size of this effect in Q3? And then also perhaps comment a bit on when that is set to normalize? Yes. There is a mix of cost that is temporarily lower. There is slightly lower pension than expected. There is significantly lower sickness leave rates, which we think which is good, but we don't think that it's on a sustainable level. And there are some cost of maintenance that we think will be delayed and we'd rather be in the fourth quarter.

17:16 So the margin improvement compared to last year for the whole segment is 1.4%. And roughly as we described in the last quarter, we expect that underlying profitability increase is rather like 1%. So 0.4%, 0.5 is more temporary effect and phasing effect, mainly attributed to Norway. And most of that effect will come negatively in the next quarter. Perfect. Thank you, Peter. That's helpful. And then perhaps on German volumes. So both German volumes and vouchers continue to drive the segment growth here or at least margin improvement. How should we think about the run rate margin in Germany once acquisitions are fully integrated and perhaps a year or two out?

18:09 Could you repeat the question, please? Yes, sorry. So how should we think about the run rate margin in Germany a few years out when recent acquisitions are fully integrated? Yes, perhaps a comment on German margins underlying. We have done an uplift in margin in several of the countries and not the least in Germany. And if we separate the operations in the preschool German operation and the school operation. In school, mostly of the acquisitions we make are margin positive to the segment. And we also see potentially good integration improvements within one, two years for these acquisitions.

18:57 For the preschools, there has been a significant part of the uplift during this year. So we don't yes, we think it will probably we will sustain the margin, but we don't expect similar uplift next year as we have had this year. Got it. Thank you. That's all for me for now. Thank you. I'll get back into the line. Next question comes from Johnny Jin from SEB. I want to start with a quick clarification of Philippe's previous question on the temporary lower cost in the quarter. Is SEK 10,000,000 fair to assume? Is that the magnitude we are talking about in the quarter? If you do the math, well, I think 0.4%, 0.5% in the segment as more temporary positive effect, I think that would be something around €10,000,000 Okay.

19:55 Just want to clarify. And then on the upper secondary school segment, that margin took a rather big leg down here on the beta margin. It's down 110 bps year over year. And you are currently running at 8.4% beta margin rolling twelve month basis here. So is that sort of the representable level going forward ahead? Or can we expect a further decline? Seen on an LTM level, we don't expect a further decline. I think that if we look at it year to date, we have talked about for the last yes, for the quarter since the beginning of the year that there will be a margin pressure due to the reforms in upper secondary. We have also said that upper secondary comes from a long history of profitability in the range between 89%.

20:46 So they are at the high utilization rates and high efficiency rates. So they come from our view from relatively high level. So we have had the expectations that we should be able to hopefully sustain the margin compared to last year if we look for the full year. But realistically, I've said that perhaps it will be a couple of percentage points lower. That might what we might end for the year. We will see. And then for the next year to come, our best expectation is that we will sustain the margin from this level going forward. We don't have any additional known reforms or so at the time being that we put further pressure. Good.

21:32 And then moving to the So just comment on that. You know, I love upper secondary. So we have really performed fantastic when it comes to upper secondary over twenty years. So we are the biggest operator in Sweden. We have 25% of the students in Stockholm, Malmo and Gothenburg. And we have handled a lot of different challenges. But if you look at the coming year, I think the key driver will be vocational training because we see a higher number of students going into vocational training. And if you look at what the municipality has done, so they have shut down a lot of the vocational schools, but we have kept these schools. We have practice gap. We have drop in blank gap. We increased the number of students and these schools are more profitable. So and if you look at the coming year, I have the strong belief that we will take benefits of that we have kept our vocational brands.

22:26 So the portfolio that ACADEMEA have for the moment is very strong because we have vocational program. The other thing that we are doing is that we are investing in our campuses. And this is really among the best upper secondary schools that we see in Sweden. We invest now in Stockholm. We invest in Malmo. We invest in Gothenburg. And this will also take us into the future because the students want to go to these schools. So even if we always have to handle challenges, regulations, and so so on, we have done this all over the years. But for the moment, I think we have a strong portfolio of rats. Understood. Then moving to the adult segment here, I want to ask a question about organic growth.

23:15 Organic growth saw an uptick here in the quarter sequentially. What is driving that would you say? And how should we think about the sort of longevity of that growth level? So if you look at Adder Dedication, you have to think what is the key driver? What is driving the added dedication? And I would like to say that the main thing that is driving the added dedication is the change in the workforce in Sweden. And we have changing we have changes when it come to very people that is high educated because of AI. We have people that is unemployed. So a lot of thing is taking us to to to create growth when it comes to added education. And if you look at the applications now to university and high schools in Sweden, it's all time high.

24:04 And when you have all time high to university, you also have all time high to vocational programs that we are running. So the overall picture is that we are really performing good. We are taking advantages of the changes that is in the labor force, and we have the right brands, and we have also developed our online platform. So so we are very positive when it comes to the added dedication in the coming years. But, of course, you always have to struggle with tenders. You have to win that trust among the students, but we have a very, very strong position. Okay. And just one final from my end, and that's a clarification on the cost relating to the publicity principle here. I think you said SEK 25,000,000, if I catch you correctly.

24:53 When is that expected to hit your numbers? And will you charge everything in a single quarter? Or will it be a split between the coming quarters? We expect that the absolute majority or absolute significant part of that amount will be made as investments in system so that that will be activated and will depreciate it over a couple of years, so a number of years. So you won't have any single quarter where we have any substantial effect. Okay. We will capitalization of development costs starting next quarter then or? Exactly. Now we have it hasn't started as capitalization capitalized costs we have started as cost we extend that is very minor, but probably the capitalization will start in Q1 or so our Q1 of the sum.

25:53 Okay. That's clear. That was all for me. Thank you. The next question comes from from DNB Carnegie. Please go ahead. Hi, Markus and Peter. Thank you for taking my questions. Hello. First one from my side, it's on the earn out revaluations that you're doing in the quarter. Can you give some color what kind of unit they are referring to? And if there's any particular kind of acquisition that hasn't performed according to plan that we should be aware of?

26:40 So the analysis and reevaluation is related to the acquisition we made of Windford, the school company we acquired in Netherlands a couple of years ago. And what we are what it's relating to, they are rough they are following their plan or slightly better than the plan from an organic perspective. But part of this earn out was related to significantly higher acquisition agenda, which hasn't been the focus in the business. They have been much more organic focused and focused on the margin improvement. And therefore, we constituted that they will not fulfill that scratch target. And therefore, we made that revaluation.

27:34 That's clear. And you've been talking a lot about the adult business throughout this call. And it seems pretty optimistic regarding both the at least for long term outlook for the segment. But regarding short term visibility, how much do you know and see for the fall as of now? Here and now, we don't see any change in demand, of course. We continue to have a good momentum, which, yes, we're hopeful to bring that with us in the beginning of the fall. We will see. As you probably know, when we talked about before, for in January, we were allotted 20% increase of the programs for the auto.

28:30 So we have a good foundation for good program starts. That's what we know so far. You should also you should really keep in mind when you look at the agitation that we have made a strategic shift when it comes to the different markets since ten years ago. So for the moment, our most important market is that what we call occasional program, like university courses, but short. And we think that a lot of students will move over to this sector and we are the market leader here. And as I mentioned before, if you look at application to ordinary university in Sweden, I think it's 430,000 students applying to universities.

29:21 And then it always is a spillover to these shorter courses. So if you look at the macro, it's very positive. And the next driver is the focus on vocational program. And we see that the labor market authorities are performing better now. They invest more in AdderDelicate in the vocational training. And some of our competitors has done quite poor job. So we take the tenders. And I think the focus on vocational program on adults that is from the labor market authorities will increase next year. And we have a very strong position when it comes to our brand that is called Movant. Really good performance. Excellent.

30:10 And you have, for a few years now, talked about the margin corridor in adult business being 9% to 11%, and you have been performing a bit above that for for a time. Where do you think we should anticipate adult business perform next year if we don't see any big kind of swings either to the downside or upside on volumes? I think if we continue to have a stable growth in line with what we have had this year, we don't see any significant risks for the margin being depressed. So we've seen on rolling twelve months, this is the level we are at roughly within these volumes as low. We don't necessarily see a significant change in volumes.

31:06 The downfall will, of course, have an effect on the margin. And maybe we should just comment short also on so we really believe in this more short term MBA or university education program. So and we just want to make clear that we have invested in two very interesting acquisitions. First in K Core four, K-twelve, K-two. And it's not the skiing brand. It's an education brand in Norway. And and we have also invested in Eva. And this is schools that it's like Paris in Sweden. So we we are starting our cluster with these sort of schools, and that is acquisitions. And we have also announced that we will invest in organic growth in Warsaw and in Liverpool.

31:55 So we have high ambition when it comes to be more international when it comes to the advertising occasion also. And and you can look at the company in France like Galileo that has worked with this for a few years. So we believe that here we see potential for AcadeMedia. Excellent. I mean, the final question from my side, it's on the Prolympia acquisition. When do you anticipate to have, we can approve from Swiss competition authorities for that acquisition to be closed? So I think, in fact, that we have already got it, but I don't think that, you know, we don't announce it. Look at now.

32:40 But I I spoke with I spoke with with the owners, and I think it's clear. But I don't think that we are regulated to announce it when we get this approved. I think don't think so. So so it's it's it's continued to to work according to plan. Yeah. Because because you write in report that it's still subject to to approval. Ludwig, I'm looking at you, Ludwig. So but but from knowledge, we have got the approval, but maybe I should check it up so I don't have dreamt about it tonight. So so so but I I I'm quite convinced that we have got this approval, but maybe we should comment on that if we just check it out. Yeah. But if if you look at it, it should not be on the problem because we have a very small part of this compulsory segment. So we have never been a concern that we shouldn't get this okay from from the authorities.

33:39 Yeah. That's clear. We can take that offline afterwards. Thanks a lot. Get back in line. There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments. Thank you very much for your questions. You can call us if you have any update question and wish you all a very good day. Thank you.