NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · NASDAQ:NWE
NorthWestern Energy — Corporate Update (June 2015)
18 slides from NorthWestern Energy's corporate update, Jun 4, 2015
Slide 1: ETAC Meeting June 4, 2015
ETAC Meeting June 4, 2015 Vice President 2015
Slide 2: Solar Resource Definition
Solar Resource Definition NorthWestern retaining consultants for evaluation of commercial scale installations – Generic “best practices” solar design for Montana (DNV GL) – Solar irradiance data for up to six sites across six Montana divisions (Clean Power Research) – Simulation of solar production
Slide 3: Solar Resources - Summer
Solar Resources - Summer NorthWestern Energy Effect of Hypothetical 150 MW of Solar On Summer Peak (Week of 8/30/2009) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Ave. Load with Solar lm Solar Production Ave. Load w/out Solar NorthWesterrt Energy 3 Delivering @ Bright Future
Slide 4: Solar Resources - Winter
Solar Resources - Winter NorthWestern Energy Effect of Hypothetical 150 MW of Solar On Winter Peak (Week of 12/06/2009) 1200 1000 So — or 800 7 — o = 600 400 200 0 T T T T T T T T a lls T T T T T T T T 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour (mm Solar Production Ave. Lo
Slide 5: Small-Scale Renewables
Small-Scale Renewables NorthWestern Customer Renewable Production - Montana Annual Solar Production (kWh) 5
Slide 6: NWPCC
NWPCC Graph C26 Historic and Range of Annual Forecast of Generation from Rooftop Solar MWa Growth rate lower after 2016 Graph C26 shows the historic and range of forecast of generation from the rooftop solar. By 2035 level of generation from rooftop solar units is estimated to be between 150 to 225
Slide 7: Rooftop Solar
Rooftop Solar Applying NWPCC growth to NorthWestern: 7
Slide 8: 2013 Plan Comments
2013 Plan Comments • “account for net metering as well as other forms of distributed generation” • Consider modeling net metering capacity of 25 to 45 MW by the end of the planning horizon based on input from ETAC • 5MW of solar PV installed from 1999 through 2014 • 954kW added in 2014 • Additional
Slide 9: DEQ Work
DEQ Work This page intentionally left for Jeff Blend. 9
Slide 10: Carbon – 2015 RPP
Carbon – 2015 RPP • Carbon emissions treatment for 2015 Plan is work in progress…we have many questions and not as many answers • MPSC staff comments on 2013 Plan point to ETAC for input & guidance • Limited references to carbon prices from published sources since 1-1-14 • EIA 2015 AEO is silent on
Slide 11: Current Portfolio
Current Portfolio NorthWestern coal ownership 8-9% of total MT fleet: remainder owned by out-of-state interests Portfolio with hydroelectric assets is 41% under 2030 Clean Power Plan target NorthWestern responsible for 80% of statewide energy efficiency Additional energy efficiency needs to fit a ut
Slide 12: Carbon Cost Reference Points
Carbon Cost Reference Points 12
Slide 13: Generic Carbon Values
Generic Carbon Values What do you need to know? • Beginning value • Start date • Rate of change 13
Slide 14: Portfolio Modeling
Portfolio Modeling • Risk premium determination requires stochastic variables – Natural gas and electricity variability will be defined using historic values and derived implied volatility – Don’t recognize carbon cost in historic record (NW mkt) – Possible alternatives for carbon price risk o Marke
Slide 15: Stochastic / Monte Carlo Methods
Stochastic / Monte Carlo Methods • Both the stochastic and Monte Carlo methods require a data point distribution from which to select values • 2013 Plan used a triangular distribution $21.11 2021 $0 $42.22 What other distribution types or value sampling should be considered? 15
Slide 16: Hydroelectric Resource Descriptions
Hydroelectric Resource Descriptions 16
Slide 17: Hydroelectric Generation and Capacity Factor
Hydroelectric Generation and Capacity Factor Long-term Planning Assumptions o Ten years worth of historical production is loaded in PowerSimm by facility. o NorthWestern will use low production from the 10-year history to simulate minimum hydro conditions in the 2015 Plan. o Simulated weather condit
Slide 18: ETAC Opportunities
ETAC Opportunities • PowerSimm workshop (August?) • Viewing the model – Inputs – Results – Results validation & demonstration • Exporting results to Excel could eliminate the need for direct access 18