Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Corporate Update (October 2015)
82 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's corporate update, Oct 8, 2015
Slide 1: TF Implementation of Strategic Reserve for Winter 2016-2017
TF Implementation of Strategic Reserve for Winter 2016-2017 Task Force iSR n° 2 Task Force iSR n° 2 October 8th 2015 Elia
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of minutes of TF 2/9 2. Volumes: methodology & feedback on consultation (1h30) 3. Product design 40’ 1. SDR submetering & baseline 2. SDR DSO: submetering + NFS (presentation Synergrid) 3. Q: Emergency generators in SDR 4. Tender Design 40’ 1. Certification criteria 2. Planning ce
Slide 3: Approval of minutes of TF 2/9
Approval of minutes of TF 2/9 The draft minutes of the TF meeting of 2/9 were distributed by e-mail prior to this meeting: - No written comments were received - After approval by TF (now), these will be considered as final and published on the Elia website iSR - Winter 2016-17 - TF n°2 - 20151008 3
Slide 4: 2. Volumes: methodology & feedback on consultation
2. Volumes: methodology & feedback on consultation
Slide 5: Agenda (Volume)
Agenda (Volume) • Consultation feedback: next steps • Timeline for 16-17 volume calculations • Already available publications on the topic • Method • Input data • Model • Improvements from last year • Methodological improvements • Data quality • Transparency • Questions from previous Task Force iSR
Slide 6: Results of the consultation: next steps
Results of the consultation: next steps • TF iSR 02/09/2015 • Presentation of results of the consultation on volume calculation strategic reserves • Next steps • Publication on site Elia of the results of the consultation: done • Publication of action taken by Elia for each of the results: publicati
Slide 7: Results of the consultation: taken into account
Results of the consulation: taken into account Data quality Subject of the following Improve on TSO coordination (no double counting on available capacity) Methodology slides Take into account load flexibility (impact on peak demand) The methodology should evolve towards a more integrated approach (
Slide 8: Results of the consultation: not taken into account
Results of the consulation: not taken into account Methodology Put a cap on volume of SR (limit interference with market Criteria for adequacy is defined by the law. to a strict minimum) No cap is foreseen in the law Reduce uncertainty on the volumes Uncertainty on volumes is driven by the uncertain
Slide 9: Scope and timeline
Scope and timeline The exercise of strategic reserves volume evaluation is made every year in November. The evaluation is sent to the minister of energy in order to take a decision on the volume to be contracted for next year(s). Hypotheses are ELIA gives an advise FPS gives an advise Decision on th
Slide 10: What is available on the topic?
What is available on the topic? • 3 reports on volume calculation and decision (Elia, FPS, Minister): site FPS • Winter 2014/2015 and winter 2015/2016 • http://economie.fgov.be/nl/ondernemingen/energie/Energiebevoorradingszekerheid/str ategische_reserve_elektriciteit/#.VguFRGfovIU • Presentations @
Slide 11: Volume evaluation process is iterative
Volume evaluation process is iterative An iterative process is used in order to find the additional volume needed in order to be adequate Analysis Input data Market Model Adequacy criteria satisfied? NO Increase the volume of reserves iSR - Winter 2016-17 - TF n°2 - 20151008 11
Slide 12: Volume evaluation criteria is defined by the law
Volume evaluation criteria is defined by the law The strategic reserves volume is evaluated for Belgium in order to satisfy the following criteria (according to the law): Average LOLE < 3 hours LOLE P95 < 20 hours LOLE = Loss of Load Expectation. It is the expected total duration in hours of unserve
Slide 13: Not only Belgium is modelled. Data are coming from different sources
Not only Belgium is modelled. Data are coming from different sources Belgium and neighboring countries are modelled in detail. Exchanges between countries are determined by the market. Strong cooperation with other TSOs is needed to assess the shortage risk in other countries (that can have an impac
Slide 14: Wind and Solar generation constructed from historical load factors
Wind and Solar generation are constructed based on historical load factors and expected installed capacities Historical data wind and solar in p.u. Time series wind and solar 8000 6000 Installed MW 4000 2000 capacities 0 15-16 16-17 17-18 Solar Wind on Wind off p.u. = per unit iSR - Winter 2016-17 -
Slide 15: Best view on available biomass and CHP capacity for winter
Best view on available biomass and CHP capacity for winter 2015-16 Total CHP/Biomass/Waste estimation capacity CHP capacity Biomass capacity CHP and biomass generation are constructed based on historical load factors and expected installed capacities Example of profile of a small CHP unit Waste capa
Slide 16: Hydro modelling
Hydro modelling Capacity profiled. Hourly Run of River hydro timeseries based on monthly production Hydro storage Reservoir and capacity. Monthly inflow Unit with reservoir. Efficiency Pump Storage (Coo, of pumping/turbining cycle. Plate Taille) Dispatched economically in the model iSR - Winter 2016
Slide 17: Modelling power plants
Modelling power plants Official announced closures as defined by the law are taken into account. Uncertainty of nuclear units is taken into account as a sensitivity Each unit has a probability to be out due to a forced outage based on an historical analysis for the years 2006 to 2014. Example of an
Slide 18: Operational reserves contracted on machines are removed from available capacity
Operational reserves contracted on machines are removed from the available capacity Operational reserves (R1,R2 and R3) are contracted to cope with variations of frequency, unbalance. The part that is contracted on machines are therefore removed from the available capacity as those capacities should
Slide 19: Needs – demand for each country
Needs – demand for each country Normalised hourly profile without Demand side Response Based on economic activity Day/night Holidays Normalised by temperature Without demand side response Total demand forecast as Hypothesis used last year: done in Nov. 2014 Hypothesis agreed with FPS - e
Slide 20: Demand is constructed based on historical temperature time series
Demand is constructed based on historical temperature time series using the thermosensitivity of the demand The normalised load is the averaged demand on a given Normalised day removing temperature time serie for effects. This already includes load work days/week ends Increase of the demand Time ser
Slide 21: 260* future states
Putting together the variables allows to simulate a big amount of futures states A big set of future states are taken into account by using different profiles of renewable production, demand and outages of units. Correlated renewable production & Demand Unit outages Convergence of results 260* futur
Slide 22: ANTARES is a market tool that is used for adequacy
ANTARES is a market tool that is used for adequacy ANTARES (as other market tools) optimises the production parc in orther to minimise the total production costs based on the marginal costs of the units. Given the inputs, the model will output the dispatch per unit and flows between nodes. When the
Slide 23: The output includes the dispatch of all the units as well as market flows
The output includes the dispatch of all the units aswell as market flows between countries We only look at periods of scarcity when the generation does not meet the demand. Example of an hourly dispatch for a given area Energy not Served IMPORT iSR - Winter 2016-17 - TF n°2 - 20151008 23
Slide 24: Improvements in volume calculations sorted in 3 types
Improvements in volume calculations sorted in 3 types Data quality More detailed data for surrounding countries (bilateral contacts RTE/Tennet/ENTSOE) More timeseries for climate years (from 13 last year to 40) Improved load data and data on market response Methodology Flow Based included in
Slide 25: Improved database
Data quality Improved database Previous study Volume 16’-17’ Amount of timeseries 13 years 40 years of RES production Better data Bilateral contacts with Tennet, RTE surrounding countries and 50Hertz on generation capacity and demand No view on demand Demand Poyry study response potential iSR - Wint
Slide 26: Flow Based will be taken into account for the volume calculation
Methodology Flow Based will be taken into account for the volume calculation Import capacity of Belgium will depend on the balance of the CWE countries. The maximum import capacity of Belgium will vary depending on the net positions of the other countries. FR, BE, NL, DE (+AT , LU) are modelled with
Slide 27: Reference domain for the winter and adequacy patch will be defined
Methodology Reference domain for the winter and adequacy patch will be defined - Reference domain definition for the winter 2016-2017 is ongoing - One domain will be used for the whole winter - Domain will be defined on the base of a study performed for winter 2014-2015 by Coreso and TSOs. This stud
Slide 28: Relation between French scarcity and Belgian scarcity
Methodology Relation between French scarcity and Belgian scarcity will be taken into account Maximum import for BE = 4500 MW This import depends on the other countries’ net balance towards CWE. If FR and BE need capacity, the BE imports will be reduced. Example of reference domain for winter (taking
Slide 29: Market response will be taken into account for the volume calculation
Methodology Market response will be taken into account for the volume calculation France – information RTE Demand response • Demand response: +/- 3GW modeled as additional • No limitations taken into account generator in the model Belgium Demand response • Demand response: study Pöyry modeled as lim
Slide 30: Results from the Pöyry study on market response
Methodology Results from the Pöyry study on market response 174 MW contract- • The presented MWs are added results coming directly from answers to based with BRPs the survey after cross-checks resulting in small corrections in a limited number of cases. • The flexibility of those MWs is subject to a
Slide 31: Limitations from the survey response
Methodology Limitations from the survey reponse – No. of activations per day: between 1 and 2 (depending on contract) 174 MW contract- – No. of activations per year: between 10 and 50 (depending on contracts). based with – Duration per activation: between 2 and 4 hours. BRPs – No. of activations per
Slide 32: Market Response will be included in the model
Methodology Market Response will be included in the model 174 MW contract- based with INPUT of model BRPs Add DSR as a reservoir with energy limitations (MWh) No 438 MW price-based Try to find a better from TSO GU and gen. way to model assets OUTPUT of model Check whether other limitations are Last
Slide 33: More transparency on the results and input data
Transparency More transparency on the results and input data - More information on input data and assumptions taken - More information on the results - Volume consultation already made iSR - Winter 2016-17 - TF n°2 - 20151008 33
Slide 34: On the agenda for next TF iSR (11/15) - volume
On the agenda for next TF iSR (11/15) - volume • All hypothesis on input that are not confidential (based on report) • Agreement on input with FPS by 15/10 • Results for winter 2016/2017 • Only in case agreement with FPS and kabinet iSR - Winter 2016-17 - TF n°2 - 20151008 34
Slide 35: Question from previous task force
Question from previous task force Volume & mkt response estimation No double counting of DSR in the load profile
Slide 36: Approaches for estimating market response
Approaches for estimating market response Approaches PROs CONs - Address directly to all players - Response rate < 100% Direct Survey - No need of historical data - Rely on info provided by - Info on limitations available respondents - Limited historical spikes Ex-Post analysis (occurrences and inte
Slide 37: Historical price spikes on Belpex
Historical price spikes on Belpex Occurrences of price spikes above 150€/MWh on Belpex Avg spike # Occur price (€/MWh) 2006 8 329 2007 119 318 2008 146 177 2009 0 - 2010 7 192 2011 1 2999 2012 6 196 2013 2 173 2014 2 175 2015 20(1) 255 Limited data: few spikes after 2008. Lots of spikes in 2007-20
Slide 38: No double counting of DSR in load profile
No double counting of DSR in load profile Normalised hourly profile Possibility of eliminating days in the building of the normalized load curve -> days with price spikes can be flagged Demand forecast Impact of DSR on the overall historical energy data is limited: • Limited number of price spik
Slide 39: 3. Product design
3. Product design: 1. SDR submetering-lessons learned and adaptations 2. SDR DSO : submetering + NFS (presentation Synergrid) 3. Q: Emergency generators in SDR ?
Slide 40: Submetering solutions
Submetering solutions Overview Subm eter 1/4h values 1 (Elia Standard) 2 TIC Private Datalogger 1/4h values Meter (Elia Standard ) 3 Numerical meter GSM 1/4h values with compliant modem communication protocol Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 a b c TI Private Private Private TP Private Private Private Mete
Slide 41: Transfer of metering data
Transfer of metering data Close Distribution Systems TIC .csv Transfer of the validated data through the CDS operator 1/4h values 1/4h values 1 2 3 4 Data Base CDS Operator Collaboration Agreement is needed between ELIA with compliant protocol Numerical meter Datalogger and the CDS Operator desc
Slide 42: Submetering: Technical Requirements
Submetering solutions Technical Requirements • About headmetering facilities The minimum technical requirements are : o Accuracy class of current transformers (CT) : 0.2S o Accuracy class of voltage transformers (VT) : 0.2 o Accuracy class of the meter for active energy : 0.2S • About submetering fa
Slide 43: Submetering: Ordering
Submetering Ordering • Process Send an email to [email protected] Request Request for Delivery of Order … Commisioning for an offer technical information the offer Grid User Elia Elia Grid User Elia • Technical information • Single line scheme with location of the submeter(s) With certification r
Slide 44: Baselining method
Baselining method Reminder • A baseline is an estimate of the electricity that would have been consumed/produced by a customer in the absence of a demand response event. effectively activated Event duration energy volume Consumption P [kW] Fixed shedding limit • The baseline is required for the cont
Slide 45: Baselining method
Baselining method • Methods : Type of days Method Weekday High 4 of 5 Week-end day and holiday High 2 of 3 Monday (morning valley) High 2 of 3 (Monday) = Day following a week-end or a holiday • Illustration : iSR - Winter 2016-17 - TF n°2 - 20151008 45
Slide 46: 3. Product design
3. Product design: 1. SDR submetering-lessons learned and adaptations 2. SDR in DSO: submetering + NFS (presentation Synergrid) 3. Q: Emergency generators in SDR ?
Slide 47: SDR 16/17 “Evolutions en Distribution”
SDR 16/17 “ Evolutions en Distribution “ TF ISR 08.10.2015
Slide 48: Table des matières
Table des matières Sous-comptage Network Flexibility Study (NFS) 48Evolutions “R3DP2016” en Distribution
Slide 49: SDR 16-17 – évolutions (1/4)
SDR 16-17 – évolutions (1/4) Dans le cadre de R3DP2016 (www.synergrid.be) : Le sous-comptage peut être utilisé dans les processus de marché. Trois options sont possibles: Sous-comptage GRD Sous-comptage GRD vendu à l’URD Sous-comptage existant Description dans la prescription Synergrid C8-02 d’appli
Slide 50: SDR 16-17 – évolutions (2/4)
SDR 16-17 – évolutions (2/4) D’autres pistes ont été avancées (o.a. VREG beleidsplatform 21/9) : Spécifications pour accepter une compteur de l’URD Etude de faisabilité « all in » : Data-logger Télécommunication Système d’acquisition 50Evolutions “R3DP2016” en Distribution
Slide 51: SDR 16-17 – évolutions (3/4)
SDR 16-17 – évolutions (3/4) 51Evolutions “R3DP2016” en Distribution
Slide 52: SDR 16-17 – évolutions (4/4)
SDR 16-17 – évolutions (4/4) NFS Etude trimestrielle Validité jusque fin 2017 dès l’étude de mars 2016 (timing // appel d’offre ELIA) Indépendance des produits (ELIA): toute NFS « verte » utilisable pour tout produit ELIA 52Evolutions “R3DP2016” en Distribution
Slide 53: Vision
Vision 53Evolutions “R3DP2016” en Distribution
Slide 54: 3. Product design
3. Product design: 1. SDR DSO submetering (presentation Synergrid) 2. SDR submetering-lessons learned and adaptations 3. Q: Emergency generators in SDR ?
Slide 55: Emergency generators in SDR
Emergency generators in SDR • As is [PofC]: SDR Unit = A set (aggregation) of electricity facilities comprising loads at Delivery Points able to reduce the Unit’s total offtake (electricity consumption) by changing, stopping or slowing down an energy‐consuming process of the loads at these Delivery
Slide 56: 4. Tender design
4. Tender design: 1. Certification criteria 2. Planning certification and NFS 3. Selection of offers 4. Q: Transparency of prices
Slide 57: Recap SDR certification 2015-2016
Recap SDR certification 2015-2016 The maximum allowed SDR Reference Power is calculated by Elia for each certification request as the maximum value satisfying following criteria: • Average hourly Offtake over 3 Winter Periods ≥ SDR Reference Power + Total SL/UM • Availability_Rate_Rref over 3 Winter
Slide 58: SDR certification 2016-2017
SDR certification 2016-2017 Goal: Increase fit with typical behavior of need profile of strategic reserve but aim for stability & independence of absolute volume of SR to be constitued Preliminary results (based on existing simulations for winter 2016-2017, will be challenged by means of results o
Slide 59: SDR certification 2016-2017
SDR certification 2016-2017 The graph shows an example of the most critical hours for one nuclear scenario for a working day, in terms of ENS (Energy Not Served) Avg ENS all 3% (including non 52% 30% scenarios working days) 10% 5% The numbers indicated below the graph are based on the average EN
Slide 60: SDR certification 2016-2017
SDR certification 2016-2017 Leading to the following certification thresholds of the availability rate / cluster Availability_Rate_Rref over 3 Winter Periods during hours of cluster Y ≥ X % Where Y represents the 5 clusters (indicated by grey areas below) Where X represents the 5 thresholds
Slide 61: 4. Tender design
4. Tender design: 1. Certification criteria 2. Planning certification and NFS 3. Selection of offers 4. Q: Transparency of prices
Slide 62: Certification
Certification Deadline Planning Call for Call for Submission candidates tender offer to ELIA CCC NFS Certification 1/12/2015 15/02/2016 15/03/2016 15/04/2016 Publication of Publication of Functioning Rules Functioning Rules See document Synergrid C8-01: proposal approved NFS for SDR 2015-2016 et R3D
Slide 63: 4. Tender design
4. Tender design: 1. Certification criteria 2. Planning certification and NFS 3. Selection of offers 4. Q: Transparency of prices
Slide 64: Situation as is
Situation as is Functionning Rules §5,4: « La sélection des offres reçues est réalisée via une optimisation économique prenant en compte aussi bien les coûts d’activation que de réservation » … « Pour ce faire un coût total (TC) est calculé pour chaque offre. Ce coût total est basé sur un scénario h
Slide 65: Problems linked to a scenario based on the volume
Problems linked to a scenario based on the volume • Initial purpose of such a solution: • As SGR and SDR are put into direct competition, be able to compare them even if structure of cost is different (lower reservation price while higher activation cost form some of them). • Experience feedback : d
Slide 66: Alternative proposal for discussion
Alternative proposal for discussion • Compare SGR and SDR on Reservation Price only. • Selection based on a equivalent cost: E.C. = Res [€] • Res for a SGR = reservation price [€/MW/h]* P[MW]* 3624h 1 • Res for a SDR = reservation price [€/MW/h]* P[MW]* 3624h * 𝐸.𝐹. • E.F. = Equivalence Factor…
Slide 67: 4. Tender design
4. Tender design: 1. Certification criteria 2. Planning certification and NFS 3. Selection of offers 4. Q: Transparency of prices
Slide 68: Transparency on prices SGR/SDR
Transparency on prices SGR/SDR 1. On the outcome of the tenders and the contracting prices (SDR/SGR) respecting confidentiality of commercial information (see “ancillaries services”) (Febeg) 2. Increase transparency of results (cost of products) ( Febeliec) In a context of increase of transparency
Slide 69: 5. Market design
5. Market design: 1. Q: explanations on Activation Rules: selection process
Slide 70: Activation of Strategic Reserve: selection timing
Activation of Strategic Reserve: selection timing 1. Detection 2. Notification 3. Verification 4. Injection & Balancing •Economic trigger •Select & inform SR •Verify the need for •SR actually injects based on Belgian for warming SR before going •Impact on curtailment in over to actual balancing pric
Slide 71: Activation of Strategic Reserve: selection principles
Activation of Strategic Reserve: selection principles SR need profile Selection MW MW SD R1 Minimum total activation cost SGR2 • Start cost €/notification (SGR: SGR 1 nominations, SDR: contractual) 6pm 10pm 6pm 10pm • Variable cost €/MWh (SGR: nominations, SDR: contractual) Given technical & contrac
Slide 72: 6. Annex: questions raised during TF n°1
6. Annex: questions raised during TF n°1
Slide 73: Questions raised during task Force n° 1
Questions raised during task Force n° 1 Question who Elia's answer Transparency should be improved on This point is addressed in the presentation, see section the assumptions for the calculation of Febeg "Volumes“. SR volumes Request for more transparency on the outcome of tenders and the This point
Slide 74: Questions raised during task Force n° 1
Questions raised during task Force n° 1 Question who Elia's answer What will be the impact of Flow-based This point is addressed in the presentation, see section and adequacy patch on volumes and Febeg "Volumes" economic trigger What will be the impact of the intraday release of capacity on the econ
Slide 75: Questions raised during task Force n° 1
Questions raised during task Force n° 1 Question who Elia's answer Febeg points out the fact that the According to the law, the CREG provides an analysis on the CREG has the right to impose prices reasonability of prices of all SGR/SDR offers. In case of Febeg to SGR while the assessment of prices u
Slide 76: Questions raised during task Force n° 1
Questions raised during task Force n° 1 Question who Elia's answer The SDR product was designed to avoid as much as possible such shifting: - The supplier commits to reduce its consumption (conform contractual modalities) whatever the level of consumption Febeg points out the risk of demand and when
Slide 77: Questions raised during task Force n° 1
Questions raised during task Force n° 1 Question who Elia's answer Febeg proposes another way of Febeg This remark is out of the scope of the iSR Task Force. financing of the SR Levy. Febeg proposed to reopen discussion regarding the market design (out of Febeg This remark is out of the scope of the
Slide 78: Questions raised during task Force n° 1
Questions raised during task Force n° 1 Question who Elia's answer Febeliec proposes to cancel the Elia is not against this principle, nevertheless this needs a possibility for the Minister to impose Febeliec modification of the current legislation. conditions on SDR Febeliec requests more This poin
Slide 79: Questions raised during task Force n° 1
Questions raised during task Force n° 1 Question who Elia's answer BDRA requests a clear vision on the need of SR for following years, on the This point is addressed in the presentation, see section BDRA method as well as on the place for "Volumes". SDR. BDRA requests to allow submetering This point
Slide 80: Questions raised during task Force n° 1
Questions raised during task Force n° 1 Question who Elia's answer BDRA request to improve or abolish BDRA This remark is transmitted to DSOs. the pre-qualification of volumes This is already the case. The product SDR foresees the possibility for a pool of delivery points to change a reasonable BDRA
Slide 81: Economic trigger
Economic trigger Question of FEBEG : • The way the flow based and adequacy patch will be taken into account in the volume analysis is explained in section 1. • The FB DAMC and more precisely the adequacy patch is aimed at reducing the volume of Price Taking Demand Orders that is not covered by offer
Slide 82: 4500 €/MWh vs 3000 €/MWh for generators
4500 €/MWh vs 3000 €/MWh for generators • Question of FEBEG • Reminder: rational of different price caps between DA and Imbalance price • Incentive for ARP to be balanced in DA: all short positions should be bought in DA • Failing to do so would hide “issues” that would be discovered only in RT (SR