NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. · NASDAQ:NWE
NorthWestern Energy — Corporate Update (November 2015)
19 slides from NorthWestern Energy's corporate update, Nov 12, 2015
Slide 1: ETAC Meeting - Helena, November 12, 2015
ETAC Meeting - Helena November 12, 2015 1
Slide 2: Today's Agenda
Today’s Agenda: • EPA Clean Power Plan • Update of activities supporting Resource Plan • Modeling & Evaluation Update • Solar
Slide 3: Clean Power Plan (CPP)
Clean Power Plan (CPP) Final CPP rule is substantially different from the draft rule NWE and other utilities and states (including Montana) filed Petitions for Review since the CPP Rule is significantly and materially different than the proposed rule and there was no opportunity for comment Lawsuits
Slide 4: 2015 Planning & Evaluation Objectives
2015 Planning & Evaluation Objectives • Portfolio optimization is the • The base case for the 2015 major Supply area initiative Resource Plan includes resource – Involves multiple business units; optimization for select hydro market ops, generation, planning, electric assets and thermal transmission
Slide 5: Portfolio Types
Portfolio Types Natural Gas Renewable Base Case Storage Scenarios / sensitivities
Slide 6: Natural Gas Units
Natural Gas Units Combined cycle combustion 1 unit turbine (308MW) Large aero derivative (93MW) 1 or 2 units In-service dates for gas fired units: Natural gas fired Small aero generation derivative(53MW) 1 or 2 units • 2022 – CCCT, aero derivatives, frame • 2018 / 2020 – reciprocating engines Frame
Slide 7: Renewable
Renewable 25MW Utility scale 50MW solar 100MW 25MW Renewable Utility scale In-service date for renewables 2017 50MW Generation wind 100MW Solar-wind 25MW + combination 25MW Small hydro 15MW electric
Slide 8: Battery Storage
Storage Battery storage 1. Current focus is use of batteries for electric distribution system applications (Helena & Beck Hill) 2. In resource plan compare batteries against shadow price of regulation
Slide 9: Coal and Carbon Scenarios
Scenarios Coal and Carbon Scenarios • Loss of Montana coal generation in 2023 & 2035 • Replace with CCCT • Replace with solar, wind, and flexible natural gas units • Carbon cost cases • Zero carbon cost deterministic case • High carbon cost deterministic case
Slide 10: Sensitivity Cases
Sensitivity Cases Sensitivity cases • Distributed generation • NWPCC high growth rate • Market cases • High natural gas cost • Solar “duck curve” market case and resource implications • Load cases (apply to subset of portfolio runs) • 50% of base case growth • 150% of base case growth
Slide 11: Resource Capacity Tool
Resource Capacity Tool NorthWestern is working with Ascend to address modeling and portfolio transparency.
Slide 12: Megawatts Short
Megawatts Short Base case portfolio including expiring contracts, simulated renewables, and forced outages. Plan for meeting P95 value (reliability) 1000 Average of MWShort_P95 900 Average of MWShort_Mean 800 Average of MWShort_P5 700 600 MW 500 400 300 200 100 Results from100 sim reps 0 2016 2017 2
Slide 13: Hours Short capacity
Hours Short capacity 8000 Plan for meeting P95 value (reliability) Average of LOLH_P95 7000 Average of LOLH_Mean Average of LOLH_P5 6000 5000 Hours 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Year
Slide 14: Utility Scale Solar Contracts
Utility Scale Solar Contracts • Solar QF contracting – 2 long-term contracts executed (5MW total) River Bend (Reed Point) Project – 2MW Green Meadow (Helena) – 3MW – Term – 2016 commercial operation, 25-yr agreement – Energy production - River Bend 4,200 MWh/Yr - Green Meadow 6,300 MWh/Yr – 0.5% pan
Slide 15: Utility Scale Solar Resource Definition
Utility Scale Solar Resource Definition • Solar Resource Study – Clean Power Research Study o Hourly weather data for site near DGGS – Years 1998 to 2015 – DNV-GL Study o Generic Montana Solar PV Resource – 3 MWdc / 2.5 MWac ground mount, single axis tracking o Modeled Production – First year 4,987
Slide 16: Utility Scale Solar Resource Definition (continued)
Utility Scale Solar Resource Definition (continued) • Solar Resource Definition – DNV-GL Study o Capital Cost – $7.9 million, or $3,175/kWac – NWE using $1,070/kWac for modules and inverters; de-escalating forecasted costs by Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 8.0 de-escalation rat
Slide 17: Net Metering Resource Definition
Net Metering Resource Definition • NWPCC forecast for solar rooftop used as a guide – Robust growth through 2016 – Carryover growth in 2017 – 5.2% growth - Low forecast – 10.5% growth - High forecast • NWE Base Case forecast – Reflects NWPCC logic through 2017 – 8% growth for remainder of planning p
Slide 18: Net Metering Resource Definition (continued)
Net Metering Resource Definition (continued)
Slide 19: Thanks for participating today
Thanks for participating today
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