Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Technical Presentation (December 2015)
77 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's technical presentation, Dec 2, 2015
Slide 1: TF Implementation of Strategic Reserve for Winter 2016-2017
TF Implementation of Strategic Reserve for Winter 2016-2017 Task Force iSR n° 3 Task Force iSR n° 3 December 2nd 2015 Elia
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of draft minutes of TF 8/10 2. Results of the ELIA volume assessment report for winter 2016-2017 (1h30) 3. Tender Design (40min) 1. Selection of offers: anticipate potential Ministerial Decree decision of 15/1 2. Certification SDR: 2nd step for high BPX prices 3. Certification SGR
Slide 3: Approval of minutes of TF 8/10
Approval of minutes of TF 8/10 The draft minutes of the TF meeting of 8/10 were distributed by e-mail prior to this meeting: • No written comments were received • After approval by TF (now), these will be considered as final and published on the Elia website The draft minutes of this TF meeting (2/1
Slide 4: Results of the ELIA volume assessment report for winter 2016-2017
2. Results of the ELIA volume assessment report for winter 2016-2017
Slide 5: Hard to predict the future…
Hard to predict the future… Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 5
Slide 6: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Methodology Input data Results for winter 2016-17 Results for next winters Conclusion Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 6
Slide 7: Process is defined by the law
Process is defined by the law. The exercise is made every year in November. Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 FPS: Federal Public Service 7
Slide 8: Volume is defined to meet the adequacy criteria defined by the law
Volume is defined in order to meet the adequacy criteria defined by the law LOLE = Loss of Load Expectation. It is the expected total duration in hours of unserved energy over the winter. Average LOLE = it is the average value of LOLE over the future states simulated. LOLE P95 = it is the percentile
Slide 9: 750 MW already contracted in Strategic Reserve for winter 2016-17
750 MW are already contracted in Strategic Reserve for the winter 2016-17 Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 9
Slide 10: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Methodology Input data Results for winter 2016-17 Results for next winters Conclusion Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 10
Slide 11: 3 steps to evaluate the volume needed
3 steps to evaluate the volume needed 1 Definition of future states 2 Identification of moments of structural shortage 3 Adding volume to meet the adequacy criteria Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 11
Slide 12: Definition of future states: Monte Carlo years
1 Definition of future states The future states (“Monte Carlo year”) are defined by combining several variables. A large amount of futures states should be evaluated. Variables Hourly sunshine, temperature Hourly photovoltaic production Hourly windspeed Hourly wind production Hourly production based
Slide 13: 40 winters used for climate variables
1 Definition of future states 40 winters are used (from 1973 to 2014) for the climate variables (wind, solar, hydro, temperature) Example of temperature during winter periods for the past 40 years in Uccle. Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 13
Slide 14: Climate data kept correlated in time and location
1 Definition of future states Climate data are kept correlated in time and location Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 14
Slide 15: Random draw on availability of production units
1 Definition of future states A random draw is made on the availability of the production units based on historic forced outage rates and length Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 15
Slide 16: 800 Monte Carlo years needed
1 Definition of future states Each future state is based on 1 climate year and a random draw of availability of the production units 800 Monte Carlo years are needed for the adequacy indicators to converge Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 16
Slide 17: 19 countries are modelled in this study
2 Identification of moments of structural shortage 19 countries are modelled in this study Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 17
Slide 18: Hourly simulation of the European system
2 Identification of moments of structural shortage An hourly simulation of the European system allows to identify the moments of structural shortage in winter Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 18
Slide 19: Market simulator ANTARES finds optimal dispatch
2 Identification of moments of structural shortage A market simulator (ANTARES) is used to find the optimal dispatch of production units Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 19
Slide 20: Iterative process to find needed volume
3 Adding volume to meet the adequacy criteria An iterative process is used to find the needed volume Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 20
Slide 21: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Methodology Input data Results for winter 2016-17 Results for next winters Conclusion Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 21
Slide 22: Data from different sources; each country modelled like Belgium
Data from different sources is used. Each country is modelled in the same way as Belgium. Belgium and neighboring countries are modelled in detail. Exchanges between countries are determined by the market. Strong cooperation with other TSOs is needed. Data used from different sources: - ENTSO-E data
Slide 23: Input data for each country
Input data for each country Production Demand Interconnections Nuclear and fossil Demand profiles Flow Based Renewables, CHP Market response Commercial capacities Pump/turbine/Hydro Balancing reserve Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 23
Slide 24: Forecast for 2020 for wind and solar
Forecast for 2020* for wind and solar. Linear interpolation between today and 2020. * Values for 2020 are based on forecasts made by each region of the country. Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 24
Slide 25: Wind and solar capacities combined with 40 years of data
Wind and solar installed capacities are combined with 40 years of hourly historic data Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 25
Slide 26: Non CIPU units modelled with typical profile
Non CIPU units (CHP and biomass) are modelled with a typical profile of production. Forecast is based on known projects in Elia database. Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 26
Slide 27: CIPU units modelled with random availability draw
CIPU units are modelled independently in the model with a random draw on availability of the production units No maintenance of those units is taken into account. Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 27
Slide 28: Balancing reserve removed from available capacity
Balancing reserve contracted on production units are removed from the available capacity Balancing reserve (R1,R2 and R3) are contracted to cope with variations of frequency, unbalance. The part that is contracted on machines is therefore removed from the available capacity as those capacities shoul
Slide 29: Pumped storage and run of river modelling
Pumped Storage is optimized by the model. Run of river is modelled based on 40 years of historical data. • 1308 MW Pumped • Optimized by the model (economic dispatch) storage • Reduction of the capacity is taken into account (planned and unplanned outage): 1086 MW Run of • 114 MW River • 40 timeseri
Slide 30: Demand constructed in steps
Demand is constructed in 3 steps 1 Growth of the total demand 2 Growth applied to an hourly normalised profile for demand Thermosensitivity for temperature is added for 3 each hour of the winter This results in 40 hourly demand profiles for the winter 2016-17, with a different peakload for each prof
Slide 31: Growth of total demand
1 Growth of the total demand IHS CERA data are used for the growth rate of the Belgian electricity demand and applied to normalised data for demand Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 31
Slide 32: Belgian demand profile: normalised vs thermosensitivity
2 Growth applied to an hourly normalised profile for temperature 3 Thermosensitivity for temperature is added for each hour of the winter Profile of Belgian electricity demand without market response: normalised for temperature versus thermosensitivity Month Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 32
Slide 33: Historical peak demand vs 3 step approach
Historical observations of peak demand are in the range of the peak demand obtained by the 3 step approach Note that the model simulates hour per hour, not only the peak demand Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 33
Slide 34: Market response derived from Poyry study
Market response volume and activations are derived from the Poyry study Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 34
Slide 35: Adequacy situation in neighbouring countries
Adequacy situation in neighbouring countries France needs imports for its own security of supply. The risk of shortage for winter 2016-17 decreased according to RTE in comparison to last year’s report The Netherlands and Germany are currently in overcapacity and can provide energy in case neighborin
Slide 36: Flow based taken into account as in day-ahead coupling
Flow based is taken into account as in the day-ahead market coupling for the CWE zone • It is the first time a TSO integrates the flow based methodology to assess the security of supply of a country • 1 flow based domain is used for the whole winter (based on Case B of the study with Coreso) • Adequ
Slide 37: Relation between French and Belgian scarcity
Relation between French scarcity and Belgian scarcity will be taken into account with the flow based methodology. If FR and BE need capacity, the BE imports will be reduced. BE can import 4500 MW if FR can export BE can import <4500 MW because FR needs imports for its own adequacy Task Force iSR nr
Slide 38: Other interconnections as fixed commercial capacities
Other interconnections are modelled as fixed commercial capacities for the whole winter Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 38
Slide 39: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Methodology Input data Results for winter 2016-17 Results for next winters Conclusion Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 39
Slide 40: Reference case definition and sensitivities
Reference case definition and sensitivities Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 40
Slide 41: Results for winter 2016-17: reference case
Results for winter 2016-17: reference case Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 41
Slide 42: Belgium strongly dependent on imports
Belgium is strongly dependent on imports (during the whole winter) Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 42
Slide 43: Import needs and correlated scarcity
Import needs: correlation between French and Belgian scarcity is taken into account Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 43
Slide 44: Amount of activations for the reference case
Amount of activations for the reference case DOEL 1 DOEL 2 No D3/T2 With D1/D2 Average P95 Average/P95 # Activations 1 5 Average/P95 Running hours 6h 37 h for the whole winter Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 44
Slide 45: What are the moments @ risk?
What are the moments @ risk? Remaining average margin for the belgian system for each hour of the winter 2016-17 (based on the 800 future states simulated) Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 31/10/2016 07/11/2016 14/11/2016 21/11/2016 28/11/2016 05/12/2016 12/12/2016 19/12/2016
Slide 46: What drives moments of structural shortage?
What drives moments of structural shortage ? Temperature PV production Analysed drivers Wind Unit outages Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 46
Slide 47: 4 categories can be created
4 categories can be created A Cold and no wind B Cold and outage C Outage and no wind D Outage Main reasons (total of 91 % of the structural deficit hours) Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 47
Slide 48: Need depends on nuclear availability
The need of strategic reserve strongly depends on the nuclear availability Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 48
Slide 49: Need depends on availability of network elements
Need of strategic reserve is dependent on the availability of network elements In case of changes in the input hypotheses, the impact of the availability of network elements can be different. Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 49
Slide 50: Need depends on French production availability
Need of strategic reserve is strongly dependent on French production availability In case of changes in the input hypotheses, the impact of the French production availability can be different. Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 50
Slide 51: Need little dependent on Belgian demand growth
Need of strategic reserve is little dependent on hypothesis of demand growth for Belgium In case of changes in the input hypotheses, the impact of the French production availability can be different. Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 51
Slide 52: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Methodology Input data Results for winter 2016-17 Results for next winters Conclusion Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 52
Slide 53: 2017-2018: Results
2017-2018: Results Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 53
Slide 54: 2018-2019: Results
2018-2019: Results Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 54
Slide 55: Agenda
Agenda Introduction Methodology Input data Results for winter 2016-17 Results for next winters Conclusion Task Force iSR nr 3 - 2/12/2015 55
Slide 56: Conclusion: improvements in volume calculations
Conclusion: improvements in volume calculations Data quality More detailed data for surrounding countries (bilateral contacts RTE/Tennet/ENTSOE) More timeseries for climate years (from 13 last year to 40) Improved load data and data on market response Methodology Flow Based included in the v
Slide 57: Conclusion: results for next winters
Conclusion: results for next winters Reference case results (without D3T2 , with D1D2): 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 1000 MW 1400 MW 1500 MW Belgium is very dependent on imports - Strong dependence on other countries (mainly France) - Additional closures in other countries Results do not take into ac
Slide 58: 3. Tender design
3. Tender design: 1. Selection of offers: anticipate potential Ministerial Decree 2. Certification SDR: 2nd step for high BPX prices 3. Certification SGR
Slide 59: Selection rules – Total Cost
Selection rules – Total Cost Functionning Rules §5,4: « La sélection des offres reçues est réalisée via une optimisation économique prenant en compte aussi bien les coûts d’activation que de réservation » … « Pour ce faire un coût total (TC) est calculé pour chaque offre. Ce coût total est basé sur
Slide 60: Selection rules for tender 2016
Selection rules for tender 2016 • Purpose of such a solution: • As SGR and SDR are put into direct competition, be able to compare them even if structure of cost is different (lower reservation price while higher activation cost form some of them). • During Task Force of October 8th, Elia proposed t
Slide 61: Anticipation of potential Ministerial Decree in functioning rules
Anticipation of potential Ministerial Decree in functioning rules & procedure MD 2014-2015 MD 2015-2016 ≥ 2750MW ≥ 1200MW SR SR MW MW SDR 1Yr SDR 1Yr ≥300 MW SGR 1Yr and ≤ 500MW SGR SGR 3Yr contracts SGR 1+2Yr 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 2016-17 • SGR : capacity that would not have been availabl
Slide 62: Anticipation of potential Ministerial Decree: extracts
Anticipation of potential Ministerial Decree in functioning rules & procedure MD 2016-2017 Extracts functioning rules: volume defined by the MD for a certain winter period (SR / min SGR/ min SDR) ≤ Selected volume ≤ max volume (SR / SGR / SDR) defined SDR candidates can submit offers for the win
Slide 63: SDR Certification – expansion for high Belpex prices
SDR Certification – expansion to include reaction towards high Belpex prices Goal of certification = certify SDR for which the consumption profile fits with Elia needs for SR. Verify consumption at Verify consumption reaction to 1 moments of higher 2 high Belpex prices activation probability METHOD
Slide 64: SDR certification – goal and step 1
SDR certification – goal and step 1 Goal of certification = certify SDR for which the consumption profile fits with Elia needs for SR. This includes consumption that consumes at the right moments but since high prices on Belpex can be expected during SR events, it is also important that this consump
Slide 65: SDR certification – goal and step 2
SDR certification – goal and step 2 2 Identify days with high Belpex prices (Belpex prices ≥ 150€/MWh from 1/11/2013-29/2/2016) • Winter: 24/3/2015 (6h) • Out of winter: 28/5/2014 (1h), 22/9/2015 (14h), 15/10/2015 (11h), 16/10/2015 (14h) Determine Baseline via X of Y method for each of these days wi
Slide 66: SGR certification of Pmax offered
SGR certification of Pmax offered unavailability Pavailable Pcontracted (≤Pmax @ 15°C) Pattained 1 • Past metering data will be requested during tendering process to proof that the offered Pmax can be attained (max 2y old at offer deadline), corrected to be valid at a T of 15°C (correction needs to
Slide 67: 4. Product design
4. Product design: 1. Requirements # activations 2. Penalties for test at demand supplier
Slide 68: Conditions on activations
Conditions on activations SGR and SDR limitations in terms of activations are updated based on results of the volume analysis provided to the Minister on 15/11/2015 and taking into account: 1. reference but also sensitivity scenarios because of uncertainty of some hypothesis (Nu plants, …) activat
Slide 69: Conditions on activations for SGR
Conditions on activations for SGR • For SGR the maximum number of running hours and maximum number of activations are based on “P95” values of scenarios analysed in volume study. SGR Activation limitations per contract 5 + 1,5 hours = base case Reaction time but may vary /unit Duration No limit Base
Slide 70: Conditions on activations for SDR
Conditions on activations for SDR • For SDR the product characteristics are a trade off between what a (pool of) grid users can offer with acceptable impact on its process(es) and the needs. • An equivalence factor is applied during the selection of offers in order to take into account those limitat
Slide 71: Test @ demand supplier - incentive SGR
Test @ demand supplier - add incentive to follow program SGR • Real activation and test @ demand Elia: 1 and 2 • Test @ demand supplier: no remuneration and • Today: no incentive to follow program • New: add incentive to follow program 2 2 Notification Verification Penalty for missing & excessive
Slide 72: Test @ demand supplier - incentive SDR
Test @ demand supplier - add incentive to follow program SDR • Real activation and test @ demand Elia: 1 and 2 • Test @ demand supplier: no remuneration and • Today: no incentive to follow program • New: add incentive to follow program 2 DROP TO DROP BY Consumption Consumption Target UM SL Deliver
Slide 73: 5. Market design
5. Market design: 1. Clarification trigger imbalance price of 4500€/MWh
Slide 74: Clarification trigger imbalance tariff of 4500€/MWh
Clarification trigger imbalance tariff of 4500€/MWh The triggers leading to an imbalance tariff of 4500€/MWh are clarified. This allows to cover specific cases such as the bridging of a unit between two peaks (which could be possible due to techno-economic reasons): 1. 1 An SR unit needs to be activ
Slide 75: 6. Annex
6. Annex Overview of all changes for SR 2016/2017
Slide 76: Overview of changes for 2016/17
Overview of changes for 2016/17 1. Market design • Clarification in Functioning rules of Trigger of 4500€. (No change in principle) 2. Tender Design • Selection of offers: anticipate Ministerial Decree decision(s) of 15/1 • Certification SDR: • more correlated with needs while being transparent and
Slide 77: Strategic Reserves: Prep. Winter 2016-2017 Overall timeline
Strategic Reserves: Prep. Winter 2016-2017 Overall timeline Min. Call for Advice CREG SoS Analysis decree candidates 15/01 01/07 1/11 13/11 15/02 7/12 11/12 29/01 15/03 15/04 20/05 2/9 FR to DRAFT FR approval Tender Report Elia CREG Call for PdC tender Offers Consultation PdC Sept-Oct-Nov 4 Wks 2W