AGL Energy Limited · ASX:AGL
AGL Energy — 17th Annual Power & Electricity Congress 2006
22 slides from AGL Energy's conference presentation, Nov 28, 2006
Slide 1: Australia's energy security
auStralia’s energy security paul anthony, agl managing director & ceo 17% annual power.& electricity congress November. 2006
Slide 2: Disclaimer
disclaimer the information in this presentation: eis not an offer or recommendation to. purchase or subscribe for.securities in agl energy limited or to.retain any securities currently held *...does not take into account the potential and current individual investment objectives or the financial sit
Slide 3: Agenda
australia’s energy reserves the global energy market supplying electricity in Australian markets greenhouse gas emissions and carbon risk australia’s energy mix moving forward conclusions agenda
Slide 4: Australian energy reserves
australian energy reserves abundant reserves of gas, coal & uranium gas «~.2.52 trillion cubic metres of natural gas reserves ~.1.4% of world reserves (179.83 trillion cubic metres) --at current production of 37.1 billion cubic metres, life of 67.9 years coal . ~ 78,500 million tonnes of coal reserv
Slide 5: Australian energy reserves: oil, a different story
australian energy reserves oil - a different story --end 2005, estimated world oil reserves ~1200. thousand million barrels — estimated world oil consumption ~30 thousand million barrels annually — with present reserves and at-current:consumption, life of 40 years = consumption growing significantly
Slide 6: Distribution of world energy reserves
distribution of world energy reserves where are. the energy reserves? 100% 90% 4 80% t--- 70% 7 60% t---- 50% 4--- 40% 4-7-7 30% J G Asia Pacific @Africa Middle East G Europe m South America G North America 20% 7 10% 7 0% Coal ; “Gas : Oil : 7 Uranium Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20
Slide 7: Global energy demand
Quadrillion btu Source: Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2005 where is the demand? global energy demand 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 ‘Transitional economies — Mature market economies — Emerging economies 1990 2002 2015 2025
Slide 8: Oil and gas prices
oil and gas prices prices are rising 10 $US per million Btu ——LNG Japan =—US Natural Gas 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
Slide 9: Coal prices
coal prices prices are rising 100 90 5 80 4 Japan Coking 7O 5 60 5 50 5 $US per tonne 40 4 30 4 DO fannnnnnnnnnnecccnee ne cncce ene ceece cee nenes ec cnne es nacae ne nnenn nenaanesnnaaaeaasannesssnnnanessanaanannanassanaansssanaannassnnanassannanes can MQ. ponnennnnnne nec nnne een necen cece enc
Slide 10: Impact on trade balance
impact on trade balance energy exports and energy imports 2500 D2OOD 4 -----n nnn een nn rene rene nnn nen enn ee en nena nnn scene seca sean na aa nee enn ees cnn e seca es econ sc aa seen eee n ae Coal, coke and briquette exports —— Other mineral fuel exports Fuel and lubricant imports 1500 ~ < =
Slide 11: Australia's energy mix
auStralia’s energy mix projected primary energy consumption 10000 4 GOOD 4 ----- 22-22 nnn e nen nen nce ec nene cene en ne eee en e ee ne ne ee etceeeenee eee ee FOOD + ------2 22 eens eee e eee ee ec eee eects eee eee e eee ee tere cc 6000 6000 Energy Dernand (Pu) 4000 3000 2000 1000 a 2004 2009 2
Slide 12: Greenhouse gases
greenhouse gases greenhouse gas policy may change our supply mix 120 9 100 + Sl BO --e--neeneeee kg COZe per GJ AD -bannenneeeeee> 20 4------------- a4 Black coal Natural gas Automotive gasoline Source: AGO (2004) 11
Slide 13: Electricity demand
electricity demand growth in demand: NSW example aMTPASA Available Capacity (15th August 2006) Available Capacity Additional Capacity Req ~<““" in 2 ¥r Demand ——~pemand for Reliability ——~Low Demand 18,000 jones 17,000 pa] . _s 2,447 _—— 4,986 Lae 16,000 15,000 Installed Capacity (MW) 14,000.4 ~. 13
Slide 14: Least cost new supply: generation output mix
least cost new supply electricity generation output mix 350 @black coal mbrowncoal mgas hydro renewable 300 250 200 TWh 150 100 50 is) 2007 2003 2011 2013 2015 2017 20193 2021 2023 2025 2027 2023 Source: WWF-Australia, AGL and Frontier Economics (2006) 13
Slide 15: Least cost new supply: generation capacity
New 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 NW 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 a least cost new supply electricity generation. capacity @ Black coal mGas O Hydro f Renewable 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Source: WWF-Australia, AGL and Frontier Economics (2006) 14
Slide 16: Greenhouse gases
greenhouse gases without intervention, emissions would rise by around 40% 280 DEQ foneseneeseceessceessceesseessceesseeessneecsonessoaeesonessnesnnaessnaesenaesenassenassenaesenetsaneesanessanessnnssnnssanersnsceasssened Ge oe a= = DQQ f-------- 2 -n ee een eee ee ene @-------- BRRaeS Ss == = = BOQ
Slide 17: Lower emissions supply mix
lower emissions supply mix electricity generation output mix with a carbon constraint 350 @black coal mbrowncoal mgas hydro renewable 300 4 250 4 200 4. TWh 150 100 50 is) 2007 2003 2011 2013 2015 2017 20193 2021 2023 2025 2027 20293 Source: WWF-Australia, AGL and Frontier Economics (2006) 16
Slide 18: Lower emissions
lower emissions lower emissions with a carbon constraint 280 260 240 220 200 180 million tonnes 160 140 120 100 Business as Usual Wh Carbon Constraint 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2028 Source: WWF-Australia, AGL and Frontier Economics (2006) 17
Slide 19: AGL's response to a changing environment
agl’s response to a changing environment ‘Includes off-take arrangements 18
Slide 20: Conclusion: overall security but gaps exist
overall security but gaps exist ¥ gas » significant reserves » large export earner ».-competitive domestic prices ». significant reserves «large export earner »-- greenhouse is an issue conclusion 2 oll ». declining reserves + significant import item +> Increased prices. Y electricity = competitive
Slide 21: Australia's energy security
auStralia’s energy security paul anthony, agl managing director & ceo 17% annual power.& electricity congress November. 2006 20
Slide 22: Further information/contacts
further information/contacts a full range of information on agl including sustainability reports, annual reports, presentations. and financial results are ¢ available. from our website: alternatively, contact: ~
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