Trustco — Investor Presentation (January 2019)
31 slides from Trustco's investor presentation, Jan 31, 2019
Slide 1: Were we better off during apartheid or what?
WERE WE BETTER OFF DURING APARTHEID OR WHAT? “THE POINT IS NOT JUST TO INTERPRET THE WORLD, BUT TO CHANGE IT.” - KARL MARX
Slide 2: Afrikaner Economic Empowerment
In the early 1800 Afrikaners were pastoral and subsistence farmers Afrikaner After the two Anglo-Boer wars in South Africa, Afrikaners were vanquished, dispirited and destitute with clear memories of: Economic the defeat in the Boer wars, Empowerment the deaths of their mothers, daughters an
Slide 3: Afrikaner Economic Empowerment
Afrikaner Economic Empowerment took place in parastatals, Afrikaner deployment through state contracts, and patronage to Economic Afrikaner firms The drivers for Afrikaner Economic Empowerment Empowerment were: The ‘poor white’ question Shortage of resources after the wars Decreased relian
Slide 4: Effects of Apartheid on Namibia
The same apartheid laws were enforced in Namibia Effects of Apartheid on Namibia Namibia was a police zone and a false sense of security prevailed 4
Slide 5: Effects of Apartheid on Namibia
Effects of Apartheid on Namibia No freedom of movement No freedom of association Extensive detentions without trial No freedom of the media / expression Absolute control of the media 5
Slide 6: Effects of Apartheid on Namibia
The hated contract labour system was enforced Effects of Apartheid on Namibia Not allowed to work outside the north of Namibia without a permit Working men were only back home after 12 to 30 months That skewed the natural development of the family unit in the north Non-farm labourers were co
Slide 7: Effects of Apartheid on Namibia
Health services were in shambles except in urban areas Effects of Apartheid on Namibia Infant mortality was 145 and 163 for coloureds and blacks per 1000 births Doctor/patient ratio of 1:17 000 in the rural areas WHO guidelines recommend a ratio of 1:1000 7
Slide 8: Effects of Apartheid on Namibia
Quality education was reserved for the minority and the black majority were left uneducated Effects of Apartheid on Namibia In 1981 there were 343 black grade 12’s Only 16% of all black teenagers were in high school in 1981 8
Slide 9: Effects of Apartheid on Namibia
Corporate Namibia before independence mostly contributed to South African wealth and growth The tax structure favoured foreign corporations Effects of Many mines were zero taxed for its first years of operation Apartheid Capital investments were an allowable deduction from already low taxes on
Slide 10: Effects of Apartheid on Namibia
Whites were born as South African citizens in Namibia Effects of Forced conscription for all whites to fight against the war for liberation Jailtime for conscientious objectors Apartheid Unequal access to economic resources The Dutch Reformed Church used religion to on Namibia justify apar
Slide 11: Was Apartheid better?
Was Apartheid NO! Apartheid was an empowerment scheme – better? only for the white Afrikaner Focusing only on Afrikaners instead of the whole population, crippled Namibia at independence Apartheid was an unjust and inhumane system that is rightly treated as a crime against humanity The crime
Slide 12: Did anything good come from Apartheid?
The desire for justice and independence for Namibia ignited from the sins of apartheid Did anything At independence, Namibia had a good good come and well-maintained infrastructure skeleton The white school system was affordable from Apartheid? and efficient, and provided a blueprint for natio
Slide 13: Namibian Independence
At independence Namibia was a divided nation of suspects (1990) Namibian The Constituent assembly was established only days after the election results (8 Dec Independence 1989) under the chairmanship our current president, Dr Hage Geingob The Swapo constitution was used as a working document a
Slide 14: Namibia at independence
We became independent with the following challenges: Population 1.4 million (Currently 2.6 million) Namibia at Narrow tax base Skewed and inadequate skill distribution between black and white independence A liberation movement had to be converted into a national government Integration an
Slide 15: Namibia post-independence: GDP per capita and poverty
50 70 THOUSANDS Namibia post- 45 60 independence AVERAGE INCOME PER PERSON 40 50 % IN POVERTY GDP per capita 35 40 & % Population 30 30 in poverty 25 20 20 10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 GDP per capita (N$) Poverty % at national poverty lines (% of population) 15
Slide 16: Namibia post-independence: Education
600 THOUSANDS 527 K Namibia post- 500 independence 400 314 K Education 300 207 K 200 100 62 K 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Primary education, pupils Secondary education, pupils 16
Slide 17: Namibia post-independence: Health
70 5000 Namibia post- 65 60 4500 4000 independence INFANT DEATHS PER 1 000 BIRTHS 55 3500 PEOPLE PER DOCTOR 50 3000 Health 45 2500 40 2000 35 1500 30 1000 25 500 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 People per doctor Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 17
Slide 18: When did the recession start and why?
Real GDP quarterly change When did the 10 quarters of negative real growth recession start 12 10 and why? REAL GDP GROWTH IN % 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 GDP change 18
Slide 19: Why did the recession start?
Namibia Botswana South Africa GDP per capita in USD (PPP) 9 542 15 807 12 293 GDP growth -0.8% 2.4% 1.3 Debt % of GDP 42.4% 15.1% 55.8% Saving % of GDP 15.9% 33% 19.6% Unemployment 34%(2016) 17.7%(2017) 27.5% (2018) Why did the Foreign Reserves in USD billion 2.1 7.5 51.6 Company tax 32% 22% 28% rec
Slide 20: What happened? Spending exceeded revenues
Spending exceeded revenues What 70 Overspend accelerates happened? 60 50 Fiscal Initial overspend consolidation N$ BILLIONS 40 to reduce 30 overspend 20 10 0 2005 2010 2015 Revenue Expenditure 20
Slide 21: Government debt ballooned
Government Debt Government 90 78.3 80 debt ballooned 70 DEBT IN N$ BILLIONS 60 50 40 30 20 13 10 0 2005 2010 2015 Government Debt Est N$ 44 billion in debt at SOE’s (2016) 21
Slide 22: While debt ballooned, ease of doing business deteriorated
Namibia: Ease of Doing Business Index While debt Ease of doing business ballooned, our 120 101 104 108 106 107 ease of doing 98 100 94 business 80 66 74 78 deteriorated 60 54 40 20 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 22
Slide 23: Why the recession happened
Investment as % of GDP 40 NEEEF Discussions Why the 35 Investment Promotion Act Income Tax Amendment Act / Wealth tax recession 30 2008 Financial crisis happened 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Total Investment Private Investment 23
Slide 24: Why the recession happened
Summary Financial Statistics for the Largest Public Enterprises 2014 2015 2016 Why the Income statement Revenue (NAD) 3 967 840 000 4 480 514 000 5 005 992 000 recession Net profit after tax (NAD) 616 379 000 531 247 000 (296 388 000) happened Profitability Growth in revenue 20.03% 12.92% 11.73% Gro
Slide 25: The past has a huge impact on the present
“THE PAST HAS A HUGE IMPACT ON THE PRESENT, AND IF WE DO NOT LEARN FROM IT, THE PRESENT GENERATION IS BOUND TO REPEAT THE MISTAKES MADE BY THEIR FOREFATHERS.” - KARL MARX 25
Slide 26: The way forward? Political challenges
Namibian society is over-politicized – we must de- colonize our minds and think nationhood, nationhood, nationhood The way We’ve been colonized twice before because our colonizers outsmarted us by putting their own forward? interests first Our elections have always been free and fair – and our
Slide 27: The way forward? Social challenges
The past must never be forgotten, but we cannot move forward with our feet stuck in The way the past Health before wealth – food, water, and forward? safety must be a Namibian priority i.e. subsistence farmers must be upgraded to commercially viable farmers Social Social development spend must
Slide 28: The way forward? Economic challenges
Every dollar leaving our economy robs the nation of opportunities - let’s build capacity The way and skills within Namibia We must reduce our reliance on the South forward? African Economy The Namibian Stock Exchange must be modernised and become the engine of Economic growth in the country ch
Slide 29: The way forward? Economic challenges
Isn’t it time for an economic conference similar to the land conference to address The way points like Black Economic Empowerment instead of Namibian Economic forward? Empowerment? Should we not refrain from short-term populist policies that have long-term negative Economic economic effects? I
Slide 30: The floor is open for questions
The floor is open for questions Sources Afrikaner Economic Empowerment (1890-1990) And Lessons For Black Economic Empowerment, Mzamo Masito (2007) Namibia’s Stolen Wealth, Gail Hovey (1982) National Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2015/2016, Namibia Statistics Agency IMF Technical as
Slide 31: Tonight we came here as 'we', now we leave here as 'us'
TONIGHT WE CAME HERE AS ‘WE’ NOW WE LEAVE HERE AS ‘US’ 31
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