ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna — PKN Orlen — Q2 2016 Earnings Presentation
36 slides from ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Jul 21, 2016
Slide 1: PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 2Q16
PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 2Q16 21 July 2016 #ORLEN2Q16@PKN_ORLEN
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 2
Slide 3: Key highlights 2Q16
Key highlights 2Q16 Value creation Financial strength EBITDA LIFO: PLN 2,6 bn Financial gearing: 19,8% Results under the pressure of macro and shutdowns Cash flow from operations: PLN 1,8 bn Long-term contract with Saudi Aramco for crude oil delivery Dividend for 2015: PLN 2,00 per share Building of
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 4
Slide 5: Macro environment in 2Q16 (Y/Y)
Macro environment in 2Q16 (Y/Y) Downstream margin decrease Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16 ∆ Y/Y -2,9 USD/bbl Diesel 116 60 71 -39% 15,1 15,5 Gasoline 215 143 170 -21% 12,2 HHO -147 -122 -147 0% 12,0 11,7 SN 1
Slide 6: Diesel consumption increase (Y/Y)
Diesel consumption increase (Y/Y) GDP increase1 Fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)2 Change (%) to respective quarter of the last year mt 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 + 4% 4,3 + 4% 3,1 3,4 3,0 3,3÷3,9 2,96 3,06 0,97 1,01 Poland + 9% 0% 9,07 9,87 1,6 1,7 2,1 1,3 1,4÷1,7 4,65 4,65 Germ
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 7
Slide 8: Financial results in 2Q16
Financial results in 2Q16 2Q15* 1Q16 2Q16 PLN m 6M15* 6M16 - 22% -21% Revenues: decrease by (-) 22% (Y/Y) due to lower crude oil price and lower sales volumes 24 776 19 355 44 781 35 568 16 213 Revenues - 0,3 mld - 0,3 mld EBITDA LIFO: decrease by PLN (-) 0,3 bn (Y/Y) 2 902 2 594 due to negative imp
Slide 9: EBITDA LIFO
EBITDA LIFO Segments’ results in 2Q16 Positive impact (Y/Y) of: PLN m weakening of PLN vs USD by 5% and EUR by 7% 441 42 2 594 higher fuel and non-fuel margins in retail 2 291 -180 PLN 0,6 bn of partial compensation related to Steam Cracker fire in Litvinov offset by negative impact (Y/Y) of: decrea
Slide 10: Downstream – EBITDA LIFO
Downstream – EBITDA LIFO Results impacted by macro and maintenance shutdowns EBITDA LIFO quarterly (without impairments*) + PLN m Weakening of PLN vs USD by 5% and EUR by 7% (Y/Y) 3000 2712 Higher sales volumes (Y/Y): gasoline 2%, PTA 11% 2500 2291 Others include mainly PLN 0,6 bn of partial compens
Slide 11: Downstream – operational data
Downstream – operational data Lower throughput and sales (Y/Y) due to maintenance shutdowns Sales volumes Utilization ratio mt % 9 - 8% Refineries 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16 ∆ (y/y) 8,1 Płock 100% 86% 94% -6 pp 8 7,9 7,6 7,7 Unipetrol 95% 66% 46% -49 pp 7,5 7,2 7,3 7,3 7,2 ORLEN Lietuva 86% 94% 79% -7 pp 6,9 7
Slide 12: Downstream Energy projects realization (industry cogeneration)
Downstream Energy projects realization (industry cogeneration) Strategic assumptions Building a CCGT plant in Wloclawek (463 MWe) Industry cogeneration projects – with the highest profitability / the In 2Q16 completion of grid tests with PSE (positive outcome) lowest risk, thanks to guarantee of per
Slide 13: Retail – EBITDA LIFO
Retail – EBITDA LIFO Sales volumes, fuel and non-fuel margins increase (Y/Y) EBITDA LIFO quarterly (without impairments) PLN m + Sales increase by 4% (Y/Y) 600 539 451 Market share increase in Czech Republic and Lithuania 500 441 441 (Y/Y) 369 359 379 349 369 400 325 282 301 Fuel margins increase on
Slide 14: Retail – operational data
Retail – operational data Sales increase by 4% (Y/Y) and further growth of non-fuel offer Sales volumes Number of petrol stations and market shares (by volume) mt #, % 2,5 + 4% 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,5 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 Number of Stop Cafe and
Slide 15: Upstream Exploration and production projects in Poland
Upstream Exploration and production projects in Poland Poland 2Q16 Acquisition of 3D seismic data in Mazovia and Lublin region has been finished, preparation for further acquisitions of seismic data on areas with PGNiG cooperation are in progress Drilling works and production tests on exploration we
Slide 16: Upstream Production projects in Canada
Upstream Production projects in Canada Canada Assets in Canadian Alberta province are located in 5 areas: Lochend, Kaybob, Pouce Coupe, Ferrier/Strachan and Kakwa 2Q16 Drilling of 2 new wells (1,8 net*) has been started, 3 fracking procedures (2,8 net*) were done and 2 wells (1,5 net*) have been inc
Slide 17: Agenda (Polish)
Agenda Najważniejsze wydarzenia 2kw.2016r. Otoczenie makroekonomiczne Wyniki finansowe i operacyjne Płynność i inwestycje Perspektywy na 2016r. 17
Slide 18: Cash flow
Cash flow Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments PLN bn PLN bn 0,4 2,6 1,8 -0,7 -0,5 0,1 -1,2 -1,1 EBITDA LIFO effect Working capital Others Net inflow CAPEX Others* Net outflow LIFO increase from 2Q16 from 2Q16 operations investments 2Q16 2Q16 Working capital increase in 2Q16 by PLN 0
Slide 19: Safe level of indebtedness and financial gearing
Safe level of indebtedness and financial gearing Net debt and gearing Indicator – net debt/EBITDA LIFO PLN bn, % Financial gearing, % 3,5 28,1 3,0 23,6 22,4 2,5 19,8 19,8 2,0 1,76 1,51 1,5 1,29 6,8 5,7 5,5 5,1 4,4 1,0 0,73 1,16 0,53 0,59 0,5 0,0 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15
Slide 20: CAPEX
CAPEX Planned CAPEX in 2016 (base case scenario*) Realized CAPEX in 6M16** – split by segment PLN bn, % PLN m 4,8* 55 1801 306 Retail 148 Downstream 64% 5,8 10% 1292 Growth 3,3 5,1 Energy 347 26% Petrochemicals 440 Maintenance Upstream 1,5 Refining 505 and regulatory CAPEX Downstream Retail Upstream
Slide 21: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 21
Slide 22: Market outlook in 2016
Market outlook in 2016 Macroeconomic environment Economy Brent crude oil price – in base case scenario crude oil price is GDP outlook – for Poland: 3,2% in 2016, 3,5% in 2017 and 3,3% expected at comparable level to an average crude oil price from in 2018 - NBP (July 2016) 2015. Factors that may cau
Slide 23: Thank You for Your attention
Thank You for Your attention For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] www.orlen.pl
Slide 24: Supporting slides
Agenda Supporting slides 24 24
Slide 25: Results – split by quarters
Results – split by quarters PLN m 2Q15* 1Q16 2Q16 ∆ Y/Y 6M15* 6M16 ∆ Revenues 24 776 16 213 19 355 -22% 44 781 35 568 -21% EBITDA LIFO* 2 902 1 937 2 594 -11% 4 812 4 531 -6% Effect LIFO 169 -937 409 142% -68 -528 -676% EBITDA* 3 071 1 000 3 003 -2% 4 744 4 003 -16% Depreciation -464 -515 -508 -9% -
Slide 26: Results – split by segments
Results – split by segments 2Q16 Corporate Downstream Retail Upstream Total PLN m Functions EBITDA LIFO 2 291 441 42 -180 2 594 Effect LIFO 409 - - - 409 EBITDA 2 700 441 42 -180 3 003 Depretiation -312 -99 -72 -25 -508 EBIT 2 388 342 -30 -205 2 495 EBIT LIFO 1 979 342 -30 -205 2 086 2Q15 Corporate
Slide 27: EBITDA LIFO – split by segments
EBITDA LIFO – split by segments PLN m 2Q15* 1Q16 2Q16 ∆ Y/Y 6M15* 6M16 ∆ Downstream 2 712 1 755 2 291 -16% 4 465 4 046 -9% Retail 349 301 441 26% 631 742 18% Upstream 13 27 42 223% 27 69 156% Corporate functions -172 -146 -180 -5% -311 -326 -5% EBITDA LIFO* 2 902 1 937 2 594 -11% 4 812 4 531 -6% * D
Slide 28: Results - split by companies
Results - split by companies Others and 2Q16 ORLEN consolidation PLN m PKN ORLEN S.A. Unipetrol 2) Lietuva 2) corrections Total Revenues 12 850 3 325 3 425 -245 19 355 EBITDA LIFO 1 150 744 276 424 2 594 Effect LIFO1) 397 -51 54 9 409 EBITDA 1 547 693 330 433 3 003 Depreciation -274 -76 -13 -145 -50
Slide 29: ORLEN Lietuva Group
ORLEN Lietuva Group USD m 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16 ∆ Y/Y 6M15 6M16 ∆ Revenues 1 252 663 882 -30% 2 128 1 545 -27% EBITDA LIFO 139 82 72 -48% 240 154 -36% EBITDA 134 59 85 -37% 217 144 -34% EBIT 131 55 82 -37% 212 137 -35% Net result 98 51 77 -21% 145 128 -12% Sales decrease in 2Q16 by (-) 3 (Y/Y) due to limit
Slide 30: UNIPETROL Group
UNIPETROL Group CZK m 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16 ∆ Y/Y 6M15 6M16 ∆ Revenues 32 523 17 686 20 551 -37% 56 498 38 237 -32% EBITDA LIFO 3 998 349 4 588 15% 7 182 4 938 -31% EBITDA 4 606 558 4 266 -7% 7 576 4 824 -36% EBIT 4 129 121 3 798 -8% 6 646 3 920 -41% Net result 3 306 -10 3 124 -6% 5 309 3 113 -41% Lower sa
Slide 31: Macro environment in 3Q16 (Y/Y)
Macro environment in 3Q16 (Y/Y) Downstream margin decrease Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16* ∆ Q/Q ∆ Y/Y -4,7 USD/bbl Diesel 108 71 67 -6% -38% 15,1 15,5 Gasoline 212 170 120 -29% -43% 12,0 11,7 12,2 HHO -140 -
Slide 32: Macro environment in 3Q16 (Y/Y)
Macro environment in 3Q16 (Y/Y) Refining margin and B/U differential decrease Petrochemical margin decrease Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl Model petrochemical margin, EUR/t differential margin - 4,9 USD/bbl - 149 EUR/t 11,2 11,4 1.113 1,5 1,5 1.035 998 8,6 960 982 964 8,2
Slide 33: Production data
Production data 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16 ∆ Y/Y ∆ Q/Q 6M15 6M16 ∆ Total crude oil throughput in PKN ORLEN (tt) 8 149 7 369 6 938 -15% -6% 14 801 14 307 -3% Utilization in PKN ORLEN 95% 84% 79% -16 pp -5 pp 89% 82% -7 pp Refinery in Poland 1 Processed crude (tt) 4 058 3 486 3 842 -5% 10% 7 591 7 328 -3% Utiliza
Slide 34: Dictionary
Dictionary Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas) Model refining margin = revenues (9
Slide 35: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by PKN ORLEN S.A. (“PKN ORLEN” or “Company”). Neither the Presentation nor any copy hereof may be copied, distributed or delivered directly or indirectly to any person for any purpose without PKN ORLEN’s knowledge and consent. Copying,
Slide 36: Investor Relations contact details
For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] www.orlen.pl