Yara International ASA · OSL:YAR

Yara International ASA — Carnegie lunch presentation (January 2022)

11 slides from Yara International ASA's conference presentation, Jan 6, 2022

  1. Slide 1: Market update

    XG YARA Knowledge grows Market update January 2022

  2. Slide 2: Urea prices seeking a level where demand is matching the limited supply

    Urea prices seeking a level where demand is matching the limited supply 1 000 900 800 700 USD/ton 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Black Sea Urea prilled f

  3. Slide 3: European natural gas (TTF) – high and volatile

    3 European natural gas (TTF ) – high and volatile

  4. Slide 4: Urea export from China – not much going forward

    Urea export from China – not much going forward 2019 2020 2021 6000 5000 4000 kt product 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

  5. Slide 5: Upgrading margins from ammonia to urea – high, although dropping recently

    USD/ton 400 600 800 200 0 1000 -200 Jan 2010 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2011 Apr Jul Oct dropping recently Jan 2012 Apr Source: Average of international publications Jul Oct Jan 2013 Apr Urea Jul Oct Jan 2014 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2015 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2016 0.6 * Amm + 15 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2017 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2018 Apr

  6. Slide 6: Grain inventories outside China, now seen stable in absolute terms

    Grain inventories outside China, now seen stable in absolute terms this agricultural year (July-June) Grain stocks – excluding China Days of consumption in stock Mill. tonnes Days 380 66 360 64 62 340 60 320 58 300 56 280 54 260 52 240 50 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

  7. Slide 7: Food prices on the increase since mid-2020

    Food prices on the increase since mid-2020 7

  8. Slide 8: Apparent urea consumption ex. China – up 3.4% in 2020

    Apparent urea consumption ex. China – up 3.4% (4.3 million tons) in 2020, to 130.7 million tons 140 130 120 million tons urea 110 100 90 80 The trend from 2010-2020 shows a growth rate of 2.5%/year 70 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: IFA, GTIS for Chinese imports

  9. Slide 9: Grain and food prices key to demand developments going forward

    9 Grain and food prices key to demand developments going forward 180 FAO Grain Price Index 160 140 120 100 80 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2008 2011 2021 16 Chinese Urea Exports 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

  10. Slide 10: Chinese urea production lower than last year, domestic supply lagging

    Chinese urea production lower than last year, domestic supply lagging by 4% at end November Chinese urea production Domestic urea balance 5,2 25 Million tons Million tons 23,6 22,4 20,5 -4% 19,6 5,0 20/21 20 3,2 2,8 4,8 4,6 21/22 15 4,4 10 4,2 4,0 5 3,8 0 Domestic Domestic Production Production Expo

  11. Slide 11: CRU expect lower growth in production than gross capacity additions

    CRU expect lower growth in production than gross capacity additions in the next years WM india ~= Algeria MM Others Wi Russia MUSA] =—Production tran MB Nigeria ** Production forecast Global urea capacity additions ex. China (mill. tonnes) 2.6% “4 consumption growth 2014-2015) 2016S 2017-2018 )=— 20

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