Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Investor Presentation (June 2023)
77 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's investor presentation, Jun 29, 2023
Slide 1: WG Balancing of 29th June 2023
WG Balancing of 29th June 2023 Hybrid meeting 29/06/2023
Slide 2: For a smooth teleconference with 30+ people
For a smooth teleconference with 30+ people … Some rules apply - Please put yourself on mute at any time that you are not speaking to avoid background noise. - If you receive a call, please ensure that you do not put this meeting on hold. - You can quit and reconnect later on. - You will be muted or
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda Slight changes: – 14:00 – 14:45 EU & BE Balancing Program Update – 14:45 – 15:05 T&C BRP / Imbalance Price – 15:05 – 15:25 aFRR Evolutions & Connection to PICASSO – 15:25 – 15:35 10' BREAK – 15:35 – 15:55 Winter Plan Balancing – 15:55 – 16:15 Incentive on DFD – 16:15 – 16:35 CRI filtering for
Slide 4: Minutes of Meeting for approval
Minutes of Meeting for approval Minutes of Meeting of WG Balancing of 16th May 2023 • Suggestion to approve: • The MoM of 16/05/2023 4
Slide 5: EU & BE Balancing Program Update
EU & BE Balancing Program Update Cécile Pellegrin / Aline Mathy / Arno Motte
Slide 6: Agenda of today's presentation
Agenda of today’s presentation • Public consultations • Implementation & Business Testing Protocols with market parties • Coming stakeholder management interactions 6
Slide 7: Public consultations
Fira Public consultations
Slide 8: Reminder WG BAL 16/05/23 Coming stakeholder management interactions
Reminder WG BAL 16/05/23 Coming stakeholder management interactions - Next interactions - Regular follow-up of implementation plans - More information regarding the content and organization of the business testing protocol with service providers, where still applicable, will be communicated in due t
Slide 9: Public consultation for T&C mFRR, BRP and Balancing rules
Public consultation for T&C mFRR, BRP and Balancing rules • Public consultation for T&C mFRR PICASSO • Unofficial public consultation to be launched Early JULY 2023 until end of August Balancing MARI • FR/NL Documents will be added in the following weeks Rules & T&C & iCAROS BRP phase 1 • Public con
Slide 10: Public consultation for Balancing Rules
Public consultation for Balancing Rules • Modification of the Balancing Rules includes • All needed changes for mFRR local go live, connection to MARI and connection to PICASSO and more specifically (not exhaustive): • The evolution in the mFRR and aFRR selections and activations • The principles of
Slide 11: FRR Activation trigger
Fira FRR Activation trigger
Slide 12: Context
Context In the framework of the connection to the balancing platform, Elia: 1 has to adapt its activations to consider new timings defined at EU level takes into account the design characteristics of the activation optimization function of MARI and the use of 2 ATCs by the platforms Presentation tit
Slide 13: Scheduled Vs. Direct Activation on MARI
Scheduled Vs. Direct Activation on MARI Elia will mainly use the Scheduled Activation (activation in T-10 for the next qh) because: - The Scheduled Activation is always cheaper than the Direct Activation (activation from T-10 to T+5 until the end of the 2 nd qh) - The Scheduled Activation uses first
Slide 14: Evolution of the mFRR Activation trigger
Evolution of the mFRR Activation trigger AS-IS: TO-BE: Today Elia assesses the SI on the first 10 min of the QH and Using the MARI platform for the main part of our needs allows the activates mFRR bids for the next QH based on those observations. best use of the platforms in terms of price convergen
Slide 15: Stakeholder management interactions
Stakeholder management interactions
Slide 16: General organization: proposed planning
REMINDER: Development slots foreseen until go-live: • 1st Thursday of every month GENERAL ORGANIZATION • 3rd Friday of every month Proposed planning May 23 - Jun 1 Operational Readiness Testing protocol for OPA Oct 10 - Nov 6 Operational Readiness Testing protocol for OPA & SA Nov 7 - Nov 20 Operati
Slide 17: Business testing protocols with market parties defined
BUSINESS TESTING PROTOCOLS WITH MARKET PARTIES DEFINED Tests Type What Who When Day I 23/05/2023 iCAROS_1 Update of an Availability Plan OPA Day II 25/05/2023 Backup 01/06/2023 SA Day I 10/10/2023 Initialization of Schedules & RD iCAROS_2 Reproduction of real situation OPA Day II 11/10/2
Slide 18: Coming stakeholder management interactions
Coming stakeholder management interactions
Slide 19: Coming stakeholder management interactions
Coming stakeholder management interactions - Next interactions - Regular follow-up of implementation plans - More information regarding the content and organization of the business testing protocol with service providers, where still applicable, will be communicated in due time directly to service p
Slide 20: Contact persons
Contact persons KAM Energy Amandine Leroux / Arno Motté / Nicolas Koelman Implementation ad hoc sessions (on request) • Q&A sessions dedicated to design and implementation questions • IT questions & Live debugging sessions with ELIA IT-team 20
Slide 21: T&C BRP / Imbalance Price
T&C BRP / Imbalance Price Anna Tsiokanos
Slide 22: T&C BRP amendment for MARI
T&C BRP amendment for MARI Public Consultation early decision court July till 28th of August May 3 Q1 Q1 Apr 2022 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023 Q2 Q3 Q4 2024 Feb Q2 2024 Mar 9 May 16 Jul 19 Oct 3 Today Submission Local go Live connection connection to Picasso* 2nd Decision CREG on Decision CREG T&C BRP May 17 to CR
Slide 23: T&C BRP amendment for MARI – structure and content
T&C BRP amendment for MARI – structure and content Already in current T&C BRP but • Art 29 : describes global tariff structure: order of articles adapted to make structure clearer f or reader • Refers to tariff proposal, • explains what are the Tariffs applicable to the BRP : • Tariff for the mainta
Slide 24: Proposed imbalance price formula compatible with MARI/PICASSO
Proposed imbalance price formula compatible with MARI/PICASSO ➢ IP = deadband value if -25 MW < SI(QH) < 25 MW ➢ MIP = max ( floor , aFRR component , mFRR component ) if SI(QH) =< - 25 MW ➢ MDP = min ( cap , aFRR component , mFRR component ) if SI(QH) >= 25 MW ➢ IP formula should not incentivize to
Slide 25: aFRR evolutions Scope & Timing
aFRR evolutions Scope & Timing Philippe Magnant
Slide 26: The aFRR track in the consolidated High level Roadmap
Extract from roadmap presented in WG Bal 02/02/2023 The aFRR track in the consolidated High level Roadmap Market consultations & implementation period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1
Slide 27: Scope
Scope Design evolution Implementation impact for the BSPs Possible local mitigation measures for PICASSO Will depend on the measures 5’ FAT (Full Activation Time) Mandatory – possible impact on offered volumes Move aFRR capacity auction to D-1 Mandatory – operational impact Incentive 2021: RT baseli
Slide 28: Planning
Planning ▪ Objective is to connect to PICASSO in 06/2024, before the legal deadline (07/2024) but not during summer holidays ▪ Regulatory track ✓ We need CREG’s approval of the T&C BSP aFRR for all needed re-tests / operational preparation to be done before the formal date connection date decision i
Slide 29: Scope & planning – implementation impact for BSPs
Scope & planning – implementation impact for BSPs Design evolution Implementation impact for the BSPs Planning Possible local mitigation measures for PICASSO Will depend on the measures 12/06/2024 5’ FAT (Full Activation Time) Mandatory – possible impact on offered volumes 18/12/2024 Move aFRR capac
Slide 30: Stakeholder interactions
Stakeholder interactions ▪ 29/06: WG Bal : present scope and planning ▪ 19/09: Workshop 1 ✓ Information session on RT baseline, aFRR activation method, auction D-1, 5’ FAT ✓ Workshop on aggregation rules of DPs for aFRR LV ✓ Workshop on mitigation measures for the connection to PICASSO: reminder of
Slide 31: 10' BREAK
fia 10' BREAK L Pp
Slide 32: Winter package balancing
Winter package balancing Kristof De Vos
Slide 33: Context
Context – Towards the Winter 2022 – 23, Elia proposed a measure to deal with the imminent risk of unavailability of its reserve sharing agreement during tight market conditions in Western-Europe. In such cases, Elia cannot guarantee to have the balancing means available to cover its dimensioning inc
Slide 34: Overview of current proposal
Overview of current proposal Winter 2022/23 Winter 2023/24 and after Proposal to increase local mFRR balancing capacity requirements following expected unavailability of reserve sharing during tight market Approved by CREG for conditions in neighboring countries Winter 2022-23 Identified as risk whe
Slide 35: Bidding obligation
Bidding obligation Applicable during tight market conditions in Belgium
Slide 36: Proposal Bidding obligation during tight market conditions
Proposal Bidding obligation during tight market conditions – Elia proposes to target potential liquidity problems in the Elia mFRR balancing capacity markets during tight market conditions – Elia proposes to introduce the bidding obligation for such conditions in the regulatory framework (LFC block
Slide 37: Elia proposes a two phased approach concerning the bidding obligation trigger
Elia proposes a two phased approach concerning implementation of the trigger for the bidding obligation 1. In a first phase, for implementation on November 1, 2023 the trigger will be based on the existing Critical Grid Situation indicator as proposed in the Winter plan 2022-23. The temporary trigge
Slide 38: Probabilistic price spike forecast
In depth Probabilistic price spike forecast – Elia will investigate a forecast that predicts the risk of tight market conditions early enough to be taken into account by Market Parties for the balancing capacity tender – What is the probability a certain price threshold (1) will be exceeded in the n
Slide 39: Proposal (based on Proposal Winter 2022/23)
Proposal (based on Proposal Winter 2022/23) – LFC BOA - Article 13 ‘escalation procedure’ in a new paragraph 9 Elia may impose a bidding obligation on the mFRR balancing capacity offered , when receiving from the relevant regional coordination centre a communication on a “Critical Grid Situation” co
Slide 40: 250 MW Balancing Capacity increase
250 MW Balancing Capacity increase During unavailability of sharing agreements with neighbor TSOs 42
Slide 41: Assessment of impact of tight market conditions on reserve sharing availability
Assessment of the impact of tight market conditions in neighboring countries on the availability of reserve sharing • Dynamically increase of the mFRR balancing capacity to • In the framework of the proposals towards Winter 2023-24, CREG be procured with 250 MW (following the reduction of the sharin
Slide 42: Regional correlation of tight market conditions
Regional correlation of tight market conditions Tight market conditions are typically occurring as a regional event and the probability of losing availability of the sharing capacity on multiple borders at once is high Adequacy and Flexibility study 2023 • Correlation with FR in 2025 is very high, a
Slide 43: Evolution of the available ATC after ID
Evolution of the available ATC after ID While the situation seems to have recovered in the first part of 2023, ‘ATC after ID’ on the four borders was below the targeted 99% levels 2 3 1 2• Recovery of the available ATC after ID mid-2022 following Core DA Capacity 1• Targeted reliability levels (99%)
Slide 44: Impact assessment of unavailability on one or two borders
Impact assessment of unavailability on one or two borders Impact assessment An assessment of unavailability on the effect of losing on one one or two borders shows that or twoMW the 250 borders sharing contribution mainly relies on GB and FR Losing DE or NL can keep a similar level of reliability, b
Slide 45: Available ATC after ID related to system conditions
Elia refers to its non-contracted mFRR Available ATC after ID related to system conditions balancing means roadmap for implementation of dynamic sharing strategies as 2027. Under a perfect forecast assumption Availability of ATC after ID are substantially lower during tight market conditions Elia co
Slide 46: Conclusions
Conclusions – During tight market conditions, Elia cannot engage in ‘ad hoc’ real time bilateral discussions and analysis with other TSOs which explains the ‘all or nothing’ nature of the proposed mechanism – On request of CREG and stakeholders, Elia investigated the possibility to finetune the mech
Slide 47: Proposal
Proposal Article 4(7) - From November 1, 2022 until March 31, 2023, Elia may temporarily reduce the contribution of the positive shared capacity, included in the dimensioning as specified in Article 4(6), to 0 MW when receiving from the relevant regional coordination centre a communication on a “Cri
Slide 48: Overview of current proposal under discussion with CREG
Overview of current proposal under discussion with CREG Winter 2022/23 Winter 2023/24 and after Proposal to increase local mFRR balancing capacity requirements Re-submit proposal as a general measure, independent of season or following expected unavailability of year reserve sharing during tight mar
Slide 49: Complementary to ongoing initiatives
Complementary to ongoing initiatives – Elia has several ongoing initiatives to increase liquidity (and competition) to manage procurement cost, including during tight market conditions. 1. Elia already opened balancing capacity products for all technologies on all voltage levels and has launched sev
Slide 50: Next steps (parallel track for LFC Means / LFC BOA)
Next steps (parallel track for LFC Means / LFC BOA) – Presentation WG BAL on June 29, 2023 – Launch consultations on Friday August 18, until September 15, 2023 (4 weeks) – Submission to CREG on September 29, 2023 – Entry into force on November 1, 2023 52
Slide 51: Incentive on DFD
Incentive on DFD Arnaud Attanasi
Slide 52: Agenda
Agenda Introduction • Planning • Definition: What is a Deterministic Frequency Deviation (DFD)? • TSO contribution and regulation • Approach of the study Models for DFD and ACE prediction • Predicted variables and models characteristics • Methodology • Model Results Mitigation measures • Comparison
Slide 53: Planning of the study
Planning of the study 22nd December 2023: Final report • Test results (minimum 1 month) 29th June 2023: WG Balancing • If applicable: implementation plan Presentation of the DfD results to Market Parties Window for POC tests May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1st September 2023: Consultation of a d
Slide 54: What is a Deterministic Frequency Deviation (DFD)?
What is a Deterministic Frequency Deviation (DFD)? Deterministic Frequency Deviations (DFDs) are phenomena which occur on a regular basis as a result of load and generation difference during a change of Market Time Unit (MTU) and so, which generate a frequency deviation of more than 75mHz DFD event
Slide 55: TSO contribution and regulation
TSO contribution and regulation The occurrence and amplitude of DFD’s remain too high in Central Europe and Elia’s contribution is regularly above ENTSO-E limits. (|ACE(𝑡𝑁𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑟 )| >217MW for Elia zone) • Before 2022, Elia was exceeding its ACE limitation for less than 30% of the DFD events…
Slide 56: Approach
Approach 1. Prediction of a DFD at Synchronous Area level Two different Models and two different Set of Variables 2. Prediction of the Elia contribution (LFC Block) 3. Mitigation measure proposal Flowchart of the product scope → mFRR / aFRR / mFRR + aFRR Flowchart of the product scope DFD – WG Balan
Slide 57: Models
Models
Slide 58: Predicted variables and models characteristics
Predicted variables and models characteristics DFD Event ACE contribution (MW value) Categorical variable : -1 = Negative DFD (frequency drop) Continuous variable: Instantaneous ACE at the Nadir 0 = No DFD 1 = Positive DFD (frequency rise) 𝑡𝑁𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑟 Timing/Resolution/Forecasting Start : D-1 10…
Slide 59: Forecasting model in operation: methodology
DFD Event ACE contribution (MW value) Methodology Model and data selection Model Data • Linear and Logistic regression • Neural Network 4 families of supervised Data identification • Support Vector Machine machine learning models • Random Forest Correlation analysis • BorutaShap • PCA Optimal traini
Slide 60: Model Results
Model Results DFD Event ACE contribution (MW value) Model Type Precision f1 Recall MAE RMSE Max Error SD Error Model Type R² (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) Logistic regression 0,87 0,87 0,88 Linear 77,56 106,62 498,84 106,65 0,29 regression ANN 0,89 0,89 0,90 ANN (1 hidden layer) 79,24 106,62 538,52 108,87 0,2
Slide 61: Mitigation Measures
Mitigation Measures
Slide 62: Comparison of possible mitigation measures
Sensitivities were performed on: Comparison of possible mitigation measure The start and end time of The proportion of aFRR the aFRR activation and mFRR used Q3-Q4 2021 – Q1 2022 Status Quo aFRR mFRR aFRR_mFRR Costs per avoided violation upwards (k€) ** -11,7 -7,4 -13,4 Based on historical events an
Slide 63: Decision tree
AIM: Avoid the penalty (and so improve ACE Decision tree quality) while not trying to solve all violations. Elia takes action only if a DFD is forecasted AND if the forecasted ACE contribution exceeds 217MW* Very large ACE contribution: Elia MUST react in any case as no reaction could Cost for no ac
Slide 64: Next steps
Next steps 29th June 2023: WG Balancing 22nd December 2023: Final report Presentation of the DfD results to Market Parties Window for POC tests May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feedback is expected and can be provided via e-mail to Arnaud Attanasi ([email protected]) and Aline Mathy (Aline.
Slide 65: CRI Filtering for aFRR
CRI Filtering for aFRR Arnaud Attanasi
Slide 66: Different filtering strategy for mFRR & aFRR
Different filtering strategy for mFRR & aFRR mFRR Loading aFRR 100% qh0 qh1 qh2 qh0 qh1 qh2 aFRR activation mFRR direct activation 10’ 10’ 10’ mFRR schedule activation - Activation > 15’ - Activations < 15’ - Activation request sent once before the activation - Activation request sent each 4’’ In or
Slide 67: Conditions for filtering aFRR Energy Bids
aFRR filtering Conditions for filtering aFRR Energy Bids • aFRR Energy Bids will be filtered when following conditions are met 1. The electrical zone of one of the DPs included in the aFRR Energy Bid is defined as High (or Medium CRI) AND 2. The Real-Time Security Analysis based on measurements (eve
Slide 68: Process in case of filtering of aFRR Energy Bids
aFRR filtering Process in case of filtering of aFRR Energy Bids • aFRR filtering: In T-10 in case the conditions (previous slide) are fulfilled, the aFRR Energy bid will be filtered for the next QHs, and the BSP will be requested to make best effort to adapt his aFRR Energy bids in such a way that n
Slide 69: Example filtering aFRR – inter qh – happy flow
Example filtering aFRR – inter qh – “happy flow” RT(real-time) RT(real-time) 01:00 02:00 03:00 D-1 Qhi+1 CRI level aFRR CRI filtering (via Biple) determination Day-Ahead 22:00 High CRI UP in zone 1 At 01:00, in real-time, no At 02:00, in real-time, after confirmation from 01:00 to 03:00 confirmation
Slide 70: Example RT filtering aFRR – inter qh – in extreme situations
Example RT filtering aFRR – inter qh – in extreme situations RT(real-time) RT(real-time) 01:00 02:00 03:00 D-1 Qhi Qhi+1 Qhi+2 CRI level aFRR CRI filtering (via aFRR CRI filtering (via determination aFRR request =0) Biple) Day-Ahead 22:00 High CRI UP in zone 1 At 01:00, in real-time, no At 02:00, in
Slide 71: aFRR RT filtering: how often?
aFRR RT filtering: how often? ▪ Approach for this high-level evaluation ➢ RT CRI filtering is assumed to occur when following conditions are met 1. An aFRR bid with a DP in a high CRI zone is activated in the direction of the congestion 2. An incident occurs ➢ Focus on the most congested zone, with
Slide 72: AOB – Incompressibility actions
AOB – Incompressibility actions Anna Tsiokanos/ Amandine Leroux
Slide 73: Context
Context • The Belgian system has experienced several situations with incompressibility in the recent weeks • In preparation of the summer period, Elia investigated the possible procedures that can be activated within the current legal framework LFCBOA Art. 7. 2 and 7.3 • Exceptional measures on top
Slide 74: Process
Process 1. Detection 2. Reception bids & 3. Balancing 4. Activation of RD bids Notification to Market (shut down) • After reception of bids • 1x/week , on Thursday Full MO is followed • Once all balancing at D-1 8pm UMM 3* 6pm according to balancing means are depleted Market Results with the • UMM 1
Slide 75: How to introduce a shutdown redispatching energy bid?
How to introduce a “shutdown” redispatching energy bid? Concerned Delivery Points Activation Profile Production units included in SA Contract Elia will request the shutdown on 2 QH (30min) Coordinable (C) : time to shutdown (Pmin to 0 MW) > 15 min Total cost should take into account: Limited Coord
Slide 76: AOB – Next WG Balancing
AOB – Next WG Balancing Loup Vanderlinden
Slide 77: Next WG Balancing
Next WG Balancing • WG Balancing 27/09/2023 09:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 14/11/2023 14:00 – 18:00 83