Avista Corporation · NYSE:AVA
Avista — Technical Presentation (September 2022)
100 slides from Avista's technical presentation, Sep 28, 2022
Slide 1: 2023 Electric Integrated Resource Plan
2023 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 6 Agenda Wednesday, September 28, 2022 Microsoft Teams Virtual Meeting Topic Time Staff Introductions 12:30 John Lyons Supply Side Resource Cost Assumptions, including DER 12:40 IRP Team Variable Energy Resource Integrat
Slide 2: IRP Introduction
IRP Introduction 2023 Avista Electric IRP TAC 6 – September 28, 2022 John Lyons, Ph.D. Senior Resource Policy Analyst
Slide 3: Meeting Guidelines
Meeting Guidelines • IRP team is working remotely and is available for questions and comments • Stakeholder feedback form • Responses shared with TAC at meetings, by email and in Appendix • Would a form and/or section on the web site be helpful? • IRP data posted to web site – updated descriptions a
Slide 4: Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders
Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders • Please mute mics unless commenting or asking a question • Raise hand or use the chat box for questions or comments • Respect the pause • Please try not to speak over the presenter or a speaker • Please state your name before commenting • Public advisory meeting – comm
Slide 5: Integrated Resource Planning
Integrated Resource Planning The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP): • Required by Idaho and Washington* every other year • Washington requires IRP every four years and update at two years • Guides resource strategy over the next twenty + years • Current and projected load & resource position • Resource
Slide 6: Technical Advisory Committee
Technical Advisory Committee • Public process of the IRP – input on what to study, how to study, and review of assumptions and results • Wide range of participants involved in all or parts of the process • Please ask questions • Always soliciting new TAC members • Open forum while balancing need to
Slide 7: Remaining 2023 Electric IRP TAC Meeting Schedule
Remaining 2023 Electric IRP TAC Meeting Schedule • TAC 7: October 11, 2022, 9 am – 3:30 pm • Technical Modeling Workshop: October 20, 2022 • Washington Progress Report Workshop: December 14, 2022 • TAC 8: February 16, 2023 • Public Meeting Gas & Electric IRPs: March 8, 2023 • TAC 9: March 22, 2023 6
Slide 8: Today's Agenda
Today’s Agenda 12:30 Introductions, John Lyons 12:40 Supply Side Resource Cost Assumptions, Avista IRP Team 1:45 Variable Energy Resource Integration Study Update, Lori Hermanson Break 2:30 All-Source RFP Update, Chris Drake 2:45 Global Climate Change Studies, Impacts to Avista Loads & Resources, Mi
Slide 9: Supply Side Resource Options
Supply Side Resource Options Resources Considered Avista IRP Team Electric IRP, 6th Technical Advisory Committee Meeting September 28, 2022
Slide 10: Inflation Reduction Act
Inflation Reduction Act Tom Pardee, Natural Gas Planning Manager Electric IRP, 6th Technical Advisory Committee Meeting September 28, 2022
Slide 11: IRA Overview
IRA Overview • Signed August 16, 2022, and became Public Law No: 117- 169 • New “technology-neutral” clean electricity production and investment credits • Extension and expansion of the renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC) and energy tax credit (ETC) • Zero-emissions nuclear power produ
Slide 12: IRA Details
IRA Details • $14,000 in direct consumer rebates for heat pumps or other energy efficient home appliances ($2,000 annual credit against tax liability) • Up to $7,500 in tax credits for new electric vehicles and $4,000 for used electric vehicles • Production Tax Credits – (Geothermal, Wind and Biomas
Slide 13: Not Modeled / Modeled But Covered in TAC 7
Not Modeled • Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) • Carbon Capture • Synthetic Methane • Biodiesel • Non-Commercial Technologies Modeled But Covered in TAC 7 • Ammonia • Hydrogen 7
Slide 14: Supply Side Resource Options
Supply Side Resource Options Resources Considered Michael Brutocao, Natural Gas Analyst Electric IRP, 6th Technical Advisory Committee Meeting September 28, 2022
Slide 15: Overview & Considerations
Overview & Considerations • The assumptions discussed are “today’s” estimates – likely to be periodically revised. • IRP supply-side resources are commercially available technologies with potential for development within or near Avista service territory. • Resource costs vary depending on location,
Slide 16: Proposed Natural Gas Resource Options
Proposed Natural Gas Resource Options Peakers Baseload • Simple Cycle Combustion Turbine • Combined Cycle CT (CCCT) (CT) – 312 MW (1x1 w/DF) – CT Frame – 180 MW • Reciprocating Engines – 185 MW Natural gas turbines are modeled using a 30-year life with Avista ownership 10
Slide 17: Renewable Resource Options - Solar
Renewable Resource Options - Solar All Purchase Power Agreement (PPA) Options Solar • Residential (6 kW AC) • On-System Single Axis Tracking Array – New & existing (100 MW AC) – With & without battery – With & without 100 MW 4-hour lithium-ion battery • Commercial (1 MW AC) – With 100 MW 2-hour lith
Slide 18: Renewable Resource Options - Wind
Renewable Resource Options - Wind All Purchase Power Agreement (PPA) Options Wind • On-system wind (100 MW) • Off-system wind (100 MW) • Montana wind (100 MW) • Offshore wind (100 MW) – Share of a larger project 12
Slide 19: Other Clean Resource Options
Other “Clean” Resource Options • Geothermal PPA (20 MW) – Off-system PPA • Biomass (58 MW) – i.e. Kettle Falls 3 or other • Nuclear PPA (100 MW) – Off-system PPA share of a mid-size facility • Renewable Hydrogen – Fuel Cell (25 MW) • Ammonia (74 MW) – Natural Gas Turbine 13
Slide 20: Storage Technologies
Storage Technologies Lithium-Ion Other Storage Options • Assumes: 86% round trip efficiency (RTE), 15- • Assumes Avista ownership year operating life • 25 MW Vanadium Flow (70% RTE) • Assumes Avista ownership – 4 hours (100 MWh) • 5 MW Distribution Level • 25 MW Zinc Bromide Flow (67% RTE) – 4 hours
Slide 21: Resource Upgrades
Resource Upgrades • Rathdrum CT [natural gas peaker] – 5 MW by 2055 uprates – 10 MW Inlet Evaporation 15
Slide 22: Supply Side Resource Options: Capital Costs
Supply Side Resource Options Capital Costs Michael Brutocao, Natural Gas Analyst Electric IRP, 6th Technical Advisory Committee Meeting September 28, 2022
Slide 23: Fueled Generation
Fueled Generation 17 Nominal $
Slide 24: Geothermal & Nuclear
Geothermal & Nuclear 18 Nominal $
Slide 25: Storage
Storage 4 hr Vanadium Flow Battery . 4 hr Zinc Bromide Flow Battery ° 4hr Lithium-Ion Distribution Scale Distribution Scale Shr Lithium-Ion — ’ 1,637 3,002 2025 2030 4hr Lithium-Ion [e) Shr Lithium-Ion 2 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 ° 2,334 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 Capex $ per
Slide 26: Storage Continued
Storage Continued 20 Nominal $
Slide 27: Solar + Storage
Solar + Storage 50 MW/200 MWh Lithium-ion w/Solar (Battery .. 100 MW/200 MWh Lithium-ion w/Solar Battery .. 100 MW/400 MWh Lithium-ion w/Solar (Battery .. Solar Photovoltaic ns Fixed Array (5 MW AC) + Storage (Ba.. Commercial Solar + Storage (Battery 4.324 4821 5,375 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,00
Slide 28: Solar PPA
Solar PPA Solar Photovoltaic w/Single Axi.. Southern NW Solar Photovoltaic .. Solar Photovoltaic Fixed Array (.. Commercial Solar New Residential Solar Existing Residential Solar 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Capex $ per kW 2025 ™ 2030 @ 2035 m 204
Slide 29: Wind PPA
Wind PPA Off Shore Wind (Share) 5,486 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 Capex $ per kW m 2025 m™ 2030 @ 2035 m 2040 2045 Real$ 2020 23 EEE SSE Nominal $ 5,873 6,000 6,500
Slide 30: Upgrades & Biomass
Upgrades & Biomass 24 Nominal $
Slide 31: Supply Side Resource Options: Levelized Costs
Supply Side Resource Options Levelized Costs Michael Brutocao, Natural Gas Analyst Electric IRP, 6th Technical Advisory Committee Meeting September 28, 2022
Slide 32: Natural Gas Fixed & Variable Costs – nominal $ (Idaho)
Natural Gas Fixed & Variable Costs – nominal $ (Idaho) 26
Slide 33: Natural Gas Fixed & Variable Costs – nominal $ (Washington)
Natural Gas Fixed & Variable Costs – nominal $ (Washington) 27
Slide 34: Facility Upgrade Cost Analysis – nominal $
Facility Upgrade Cost Analysis – nominal $ 28
Slide 35: Storage Cost Analysis – nominal $
Storage Cost Analysis – nominal $ 29
Slide 36: Fueled Generation Fixed Cost (Levelized) - Idaho
Fueled Generation Fixed Cost (Levelized) - Idaho Nominal $ 30
Slide 37: Fueled Generation Fixed Cost (Levelized) - Washington
Fueled Generation Fixed Cost (Levelized) - Washington Nominal $ 31
Slide 38: Geothermal/Nuclear Implied Energy Payment (Levelized)
Geothermal/Nuclear Implied Energy Payment (Levelized) Nominal $ 32
Slide 39: Storage Fixed Cost (Levelized)
Storage Fixed Cost (Levelized) Nominal $ 33
Slide 40: Storage Fixed Cost (Levelized) Continued
Storage Fixed Cost (Levelized) Continued… Nominal $ 34
Slide 41: Storage Implied Capacity Payment (Levelized)
Storage Implied Capacity Payment (Levelized) Nominal $ 35
Slide 42: Solar PPA Price/Implied Energy Payment (Levelized)
Solar PPA Price/Implied Energy Payment (Levelized) Nominal $ 36
Slide 43: Wind PPA Price/Implied Energy Payment (Levelized)
Wind PPA Price/Implied Energy Payment (Levelized) Nominal $ 37
Slide 44: Upgrades & Biomass Fixed Cost (Levelized)
Upgrades & Biomass Fixed Cost (Levelized) Nominal $ 38
Slide 45: Excel Workbook – Methodology and Navigation
Supply Side Resource Options Excel Workbook – Methodology and Navigation Michael Brutocao, Natural Gas Analyst Electric IRP, 6th Technical Advisory Committee Meeting September 28, 2022
Slide 46: Variable Energy Resources Integration Study Update
Variable Energy Resources Integration Study Update 2023 Avista Electric IRP TAC 6 – September 28, 2022 Lori Hermanson, Senior Power Supply Analyst
Slide 47: VER Integration Study – Purpose and Overview
VER Integration Study – Purpose and Overview • Consistent application supporting varying analyses • Integrated Resource Planning • Resource acquisition processes (e.g., RFP) • Transmission tariff rates • PURPA avoided cost calculations • Define “Consumptive Capacity” (CC) associated with incremental
Slide 48: VER Integration Study Scope
VER Integration Study Scope • Included • Consumptive capacity and its costs • Impacts of EIM (”fast”) markets • Potential future portfolio VER buildouts • Sensitivity scenarios • Not included • Alternative capacity resources (e.g. batteries) • New utility-controlled storage • VER-driven investments
Slide 49: Assumptions for ADSS Modeling
Assumptions for ADSS Modeling • Base case assumptions for all portfolio mixes (2-4 hours per run) • 13 VER portfolios (base + 12) • Include EIM regional diversity • Include carbon costs (CCA) • Modeling sensitivities for 400 MW wind case • Addresses next 10+ years of PRS • Hydro (low/base/high) • Ma
Slide 50: VER Study Workplan Overview
VER Study Workplan Overview • Phase I Results – Energy Strategies • VER scenarios and profiles – completed • VER reserve analysis – completed • VER Work group presentation– completed • Slides and recording of presentation on IRP website • Production Cost Modeling (Avista ADSS) – 1Q23 • Phase II Deli
Slide 51: Phase I Results – Reserves
Phase | Results — Reserves VER Profile Operating Reserves Around-the-Clock Average Baseline +0MW iz = tee aseline ME Up Reg mm Dn iF EE Up LF Wind +400 MW ie tm Dn Fest ©) Up_FestErr Solar +400 MW a —— ae 600 400 200 200 400 600 AVISTA
Slide 52: IRP TAC - RFP Update
Avista Utilities IRP TAC - RFP Update 2023 Electric IRP 6th Technical Advisory Committee Meeting September 28, 2022 Chris Drake, Wholesale Marketing Manager
Slide 53: 2022 All Source RFP Target Timeline
2022 All Source RFP Target Timeline Design and Release • February 18, 2022 – Avista releases All Source RFP • February 28, 2022 – Bidders’ conference Preliminary Information • March 25, 2022 – RFP bids due • April 25, 2022 – Summary of Proposals posted Short-list • June 10, 2022 – Short-listed Bid s
Slide 54: 2022 All Source RFP and Proposal Highlights
2022 All Source RFP and Proposal Highlights Request for Responses Proposals • 21 developers Wind • Shortfalls in 2026 • 11 technology (flexible CODs) types Biomass Solar • 162 MW winter • 32 proposals with capacity options • 127 MW summer • 56 total projects to Energy capacity analyze DR Program Sto
Slide 55: 2022 RFP Responses
Resource Type # of Proposals Total Capacity (MW)1 2022 RFP Wind 12 1804.7 Responses Wind + Storage 6 856.2 Wind Wind + Solar 1 404 Wind + Solar + 4 2159.8 Storage Number of Solar 6 749.9 Solar Proposals and Solar + Storage 7 660 Capacity by Battery 6 643 Storage Type Pumped Storage Hydro 3 393.3 Bio
Slide 56: Independent Evaluator (IE) – Sapere Consulting
Independent Evaluator (IE) – Sapere Consulting • IE’s role includes, but not limited to, the following: • Professional assistance in design and evaluation • Ensure RFP is conducted in accordance with Idaho and Washington resource acquisition rules • Ensure process is fair and transparent • Assess Av
Slide 57: Evaluation Process – Short List Selection
Evaluation Process – Short List Selection Initial Screen Evaluation Scoring Matrix Weighting 20% 40% 5% 20% 10% 5% 100% Risk Financial Energy Non-Energy Price Risk Electric Factors Environmental2 Total Score Management Impact1,2 Impact2 Financial Analysis of Price to include Potential for Energy sec
Slide 58: Equity Considerations
Equity Considerations Develop, strengthen, and support policies and procedures that distribute and prioritize resources to historically and currently marginalized customers, including tribes. • RFP Stakeholder Input • Draft RFP filed with Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (UTC) and
Slide 59: Evaluation Process – Detailed Proposals
Evaluation Process – Detailed Proposals Proposal 1 • Short list identified based on natural break points in scoring matrix Proposal 6 • June 10, 2022 Proposal 2 • Detailed proposals due from Short-listed Bidders • July 18, 2022 Portfolio Approach • Price refresh after Inflation Reduction Act Proposa
Slide 60: Thank you...
Thank you... AVISTA
Slide 61: IRP Climate Change Analysis
IRP Climate Change Analysis Impact of forecasted streamflow and temperature changes on hydrogeneration and load Mike Hermanson, Senior Power Supply Analyst Electric IRP, 6th Technical Advisory Committee Meeting September 28, 2022
Slide 62: Overview
Overview • Data sources and methodology • Hydrogeneration • Load forecast • Peak load forecast • Use in IRP Modeling 2
Slide 63: Data Sources
Data Sources • Climate and Hydrology Datasets for RMJOC Long-Term Planning Studies: Second Edition • River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC) - BPA, US Army Corps of Engineers, US Bureau of Reclamation • Research Team - University of Washington, Oregon State University • Part I – Unregulat
Slide 64: Global Climate Models
Global Climate Models • Global Climate Models (GCMs) • Coarse resolution ranging from 75 to 300 km grid size • Provides projections of temperature and precipitation • Multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 8.5) • 10 GCM models used in study - CanESM2 (Canada) - CCSM4 (US
Slide 65: Representative Concentration Pathways
Representative Concentration Pathways • Description by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • RCP2.6 – stringent mitigation scenario • RCP4.5 & RCP6.0 – intermediate scenarios • RCP8.5 – very high GHG emissions • RMJOCII Study evaluated RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 • RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 similar withi
Slide 66: Downscaling Techniques
Downscaling Techniques • Downscale GCM data to finer resolution necessary to model hydrology • Statistical methods to represent variation within large grid size Typical GCM Grid Size • Two methods used (BCSD, MACA) - Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation - Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog Do
Slide 67: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration • Hydrologic models • Downscaled temperature and precipitation is input to hydrologic models. • Hydrologic models use soil, geology, slope, vegetation, aspect, snow cover, etc. to model how precipitation translates into runoff and streamflow. • 2 di
Slide 68: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration 8
Slide 69: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrogeneration • Comparison of hydrogeneration used for previous IRP to estimated hydrogeneration based on stream flows from climate change modeling. • Previous IRP utilized modeled regulated flows for water years 1929- 2008 provided by BPA. • BPA selected 19 of t
Slide 70: Modeling Recent 30-Year Hydrogeneration
Modeling Recent 30-Year Hydrogeneration • BPA is moving to using recent 30-year period for planning purposes. • BPA is finalizing 90-year (1928-2018) regulated flow data set and is not yet available. • Utilized actual river flow data for 2009-2021in regression models utilized for climate change mode
Slide 71: Results
Results Comparison of Annual (aMW) Climate Change Climate Change 80-Year Hydro Recent 30-Year RCP8.5 RCP4.5 (1929-2008) (1991-2021) (2019-2049) (2019-2049) Mean 598 595 628 645 Median 597 585 620 636 Standard 142 137 149 169 Deviation 10th 424 437 454 447 Percentile • Recent 30-year shows slight dec
Slide 72: Results: Comparison of Monthly (aMW)
Results Comparison of Monthly (aMW) • Total 12
Slide 73: Results: Variability of Climate Models
Results Variability of Climate Models • Total 13
Slide 74: Results: 2019-2049 Trend
2019-2049 Trend February 1000 January 1000 me ——Febuaryrcr as —Febmarynce as —sanuary cr 8s —Jarwary cP 45 i £ + Linear (February RCP 4.5) Uinoar anuary RCP ES) Linear Uanuary RCP 45) er0z Broz Lr0z 9r02 $702 r0z eroz zr0z bro oroz coz Bc0z 007 coz coz ve0z coz z00z beoz coz 6z0z 802 1202 9202 soz 2
Slide 75: Results: 2019-2049 Trend
Results 2019-2049 Trend June May eroz Broz Ly0z oroz sr0z 02 eroz z0z boo. oroz coz 002 002 9e0z seoz ve0z ee0z zeoz seo, coz 6202 e202 1202 zoe scoz ad ezoz zoe izoz oz0z e102 wor Linear {une RCP 8} ~ Linear une REP 8.5) rence tune ner as “tinear (August RPS} + Linear (August RCP 45) guste 8s Augus
Slide 76: Results: 2019-2049 Trend
Results 2019-2049 Trend October September oraz Broz zoe 9r0z sroz woz eroe zr0z boo. voz coz Be02 coz coz 002 veoz ee0z z00z beoe. coz ezoz e202 wee ezoz coz ve02 ez0z zee voz zoe 8102 as ++ Linaar (December RCP 85) a3 43 — december Rem 85 December REP AS Year December 300 200 100 eroz 8r0z voz roe
Slide 77: Results: Comparison of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
Results Comparison of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2019-2049 • Total 17
Slide 78: Climate Change Impacts to Load
Climate Change Impacts to Load • Daily max and min temperature for Spokane airport through 2049 that correspond to the 19 BPA scenarios. • Load forecasting model utilizes monthly heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days (CDDs) as inputs to econometric model. • Utilized the median average d
Slide 79: Climate Change Impacts to Load
Climate Change Impacts to Load • Heating Degree Days Baseline Data 19
Slide 80: Climate Change Impacts to Load
Climate Change Impacts to Load 20
Slide 81: Climate Change Impacts to Load
Climate Change Impacts to Load 21
Slide 82: Climate Change Impacts to Load
Climate Change Impacts to Load • Cooling Degree Days Baseline Data 22
Slide 83: Climate Change Impacts to Load
Climate Change Impacts to Load 23
Slide 84: Climate Change Impacts to Load
Climate Change Impacts to Load 24
Slide 85: Impacts to Load
Impacts to Load Changes in monthly load- RCP4.5 (aMW) • Load forecast utilizes 20-year rolling average which phases into the climate change forecast. Changes in monthly load- RCP8.5 (aMW) 25
Slide 86: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load • Peak load model utilizes minimum/maximum daily average temperature for each month. • Median of minimum/maximum average daily temperature for each month of all models. • Summer and winter peak is the highest/lowest for each time period. • Winter peak is based on
Slide 87: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load 27
Slide 88: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load 28
Slide 89: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load 29
Slide 90: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load 30
Slide 91: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load 31
Slide 92: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load 32
Slide 93: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load 33
Slide 94: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load • Capacity of gas turbines decreases as temperature increases. • Will increased maximum temperatures reduce capacity during extreme heat events? 34
Slide 95: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load • Historical yearly maximum temperatures similar to median yearly maximum modeled temperatures • No difference in thermal capacity when comparing historical data to median of climate models 35
Slide 96: Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load
Climate Change Impacts to Peak Load • Thermal capacity is reduced by 22 MW at the 95th percentile of yearly maximum, maximum temperatures 36
Slide 97: Climate Modeling and Peak Load Risk
Climate Modeling and Peak Load Risk • Capacity risk is addressed with the planning reserve margin. • Given the variance of the climate change models, what is the risk associated with climate change at the extremes of the modeling, and does that risk increase over the planning horizon? 37
Slide 98: Climate Change – Net Impact
Climate Change – Net Impact Difference from current 80 year hydro record Month 30 Yr RCP4.5 RCP8.5 January 6 137 139 February 50 218 203 March 50 201 202 April 11 74 96 May -54 23 24 June -36 -58 -92 July -125 -127 -189 August -17 -36 -69 September -33 6 -11 October 0 34 21 November 14 76 80 Decembe
Slide 99: Climate Change – Net Impact
Climate Change – Net Impact Summer Peak Comparison (MW) Winter Peak Comparison (MW) Scenario 2023 2048 Scenario 2023 2048 Baseline 2299 Baseline 2319 RCP8.5 2375 RCP8.5 2294 1668 1720 RCP4.5 2363 RCP4.5 2306 5th% of RCP4.5 2470 5th% of RCP4.5 2367 39
Slide 100: IRP Climate Change Approach
IRP Climate Change Approach • Use RCP4.5 Scenario • Description by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - RCP2.6 – stringent mitigation scenario - RCP4.5 & RCP6.0 – intermediate scenarios - RCP8.5 – very high GHG emissions • RCP4.5 & RCP6.0 are similar in IRP planning horizon • Hydrogene