Yougov Plc · LSE:YOU
Yougov — Investor Presentation (May 2014)
62 slides from Yougov's investor presentation, May 2014
Slide 1: The European Elections: The Public Opinion Context
The European Elections The Public Opinion Context
Slide 2: Presenters: Jane Carn and Joe Twyman
Jane Carn Joe Twyman Head of Political & Social Research EMEA Director Qualitative Research
Slide 3: Fruitcakes, Loonies, Closest Racists & Winners?
Fruitcakes, Loonies, Closest Racists & Winners? Europe, the European Elections and the rise of Ukip
Slide 4: Sticks & Stones
Sticks & Stones ‘Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruit cakes and loonies and closet racists mostly’ David Cameron, 4th April 2006
Slide 5: Three key themes approaching the European Elections
Three key themes approaching the European Elections The rise of Ukip Britain’s membership of the European Union Wider attitudes towards the EU 5
Slide 6: The rise of Ukip
The rise of Ukip What the world thinks
Slide 7: The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013) Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring survey Sample: c1,000 British adults per month 25 Percentage Westminster Voting Intention 20 15 10 5 0 December 2013 April 2004 -5
Slide 8: The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 - 2013)
The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 - 2013) Source: YouGov Daily Polling for News UK Sample: c1,500 British adults per day 25 20 Percentage Westminster Voting Intention R² = 0.71 15 10 5 0 3rd Jan 2012 9th May 2014 8
Slide 9: The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013) Source: House of Commons Library 25 20 Percentage Westminster MPs 15 10 5 0 April 2004 May 2014 9
Slide 10: The Rise of Ukip: the European Election Context
The Rise of Ukip: the European Election Context European Election Result Seats (May 2009) Conservative 28% 27 UKIP 17% 13 Labour 16% 13 Liberal Democrat 14% 11 Green 8% 2 BNP 6% 2 SNP / Plaid 3% 3 10
Slide 11: The Rise of Ukip: the European Election Context
The Rise of Ukip: the European Election Context Source: YouGov fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,933 British adults European Election European Election Result Voting Intention (May 2009) (May 2014) Conservative 28% 23% UKIP 17% 31% Labour 16% 25% Liberal Democrat 14% 9% Green 8% 8% BNP 6% 1
Slide 12: The Ukip vote: Winning here?
The Ukip vote: Winning here? Source: YouGov Daily Polling Fieldwork: 31 March – 30 April 2014 Sample: 8,894 British adults Voted Con in 2010 42 Aged 60+ 36 C2DE 34 South excl. London 33 40-59 32 Men 31 North 30 Midlands / Wales 30 All 29 Women 26 London 24 ABC 1 24 Voted Lib Dem in 2010 20 Voted Lab
Slide 13: Most important issues facing the country
Most important issues facing the country Source: YouGov for New UK Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2014 Sample: 2,144 British adults The economy 57 Immigration & Asylum 51 Health 34 Welfare benefits 28 Housing 18 Europe 17 Education 15 Pensions 14 Crime 12 The environment 11 Tax 10 Family life & childcare 7 Tr
Slide 14: Most important issues facing the country
Most important issues facing the country Source: YouGov for New UK Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2014 Sample: 2,144 British adults The economy 45 Immigration & Asylum 85 Health 25 Welfare benefits 28 Housing 13 Europe 49 Education 5 Pensions 12 Crime 10 The environment 4 Tax 6 Family life & childcare 3 Trans
Slide 15: Support for Europe
Support for Europe Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey Sample: c1,000 British adults per month 70 60 50 Percentage 40 30 Approve of Brit Membership of EU 20 10 April 2004 December 2013 0 15
Slide 16: Support for Europe vs Support for Ukip
Support for Europe vs Support for Ukip Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey Sample: c1,000 British adults per month 70 60 50 Percentage 40 30 UKIP Support 20 Approve of Brit Membership of EU 10 0 April 2004 December 2013 16
Slide 17: The importance of Europe as an issue
The importance of Europe as an issue Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey Sample: c1,000 British adults per month 70 60 50 Percentage 40 30 UKIP Support 20 Approve of Brit Membership of EU 10 0 April 2004 December 2013 17
Slide 18: The Three D's
The Three D’s Dissatisfied Distrusting Disapproving 18
Slide 19: 'Most British politicians are personally corrupt'
‘Most British politicians are personally corrput’ Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British adults 100 3 4 2 7 4 1 7 11 4 8 90 8 22 80 23 25 70 38 33 Percentage 60 31 50 29 40 47 31 28 30 31 29 20 19 16 10 16 8 9 2 4 0 GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Strongly agree Agree N
Slide 20: Trust in leading politicians to tell the truth
In general, how much do you trust leading politicians from the main parties in Britain to tell the truth? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British adults 100 2 4 1 6 9 90 18 80 20 36 37 70 67 Percentage 60 40 35 50 40 36 39 30 36 20 34 28 20 18 10 2 4 2 2 4 0 0 GB Adults
Slide 21: Is Britain a better or worse place to grow up
On balance, do you think Britain is better or worse place in which to grow up than it was thirty or forty years ago? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British adults 100 1 8 5 6 6 90 80 36 70 45 55 55 Percentage 60 82 50 19 40 23 30 20 19 20 38 26 11 10 18 19 6 0 GB Adult
Slide 22: How safe is the MMR vaccination?
From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR vaccination is? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2014 Sample: 1,765 British adults 100 0 1 0 6 3 12 90 6 12 3 28 80 70 Percentage 60 50 99 88 85 84 40 72 30 20 10 0 GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Safe (All) Unsafe (All) Don’t know 22
Slide 23: How safe is the MMR vaccination?
From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR vaccination is? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2014 Sample: 1,765 British adults 100 90 80 70 Percentage 60 50 40 30 20 10 13 0 1 0 0 0 GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Dangerous 23
Slide 24: Net rise in support for largest nationalist and Eurosceptic parties
Net rise in total support for the single largest nationalist and Eurosceptic parties in Europe since last European elections Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 20 18 16 Net Percentage Increase 14 12 10 18 8 15 14 6 10 4 6 5 2 0 Britain Germany
Slide 25: Membership of the European Union
Membership of the European Union 25
Slide 26: Support for a referendum on Britain's relationship with Europe
Would you support or oppose holding a referendum on Britain’s relationship with Europe within the next few years? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 20-21 May 2013 Sample: 948 British adults 100 1 12 6 17 14 90 17 12 80 70 24 34 41 Percentage 60 50 93 40 77 30 58 52 20 42 10 0 GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP
Slide 27: Referendum on the Eurovision Song Contest
Would you support or oppose holding a referendum on Britain’s participation in the Eurovision Song Contest within the next few years? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 20-21 May 2013 Sample: 966 British adults 100 90 24 19 18 22 27 80 70 Percentage 60 45 46 33 44 50 56 40 30 20 36 39 32 34 10 22 0 GB Adults
Slide 28: Britain EU membership referendum voting intention
If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote? (excluding WNV / DK) Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British adults 100 90 21 35 80 49 70 58 Percentage 60 96 50 40 79 65 30 51 20 42 10 4 0 GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP I wou
Slide 29: EU membership referendum voting intention by country
If there was a referendum on[COUNTRY]’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote? (Excluding WNV/DK) Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 100 90 29 35 38 80 44 49 49 70 Percentage 60 50 40 71 65 62 30 56 51 51 20 10 0 Britain Germany
Slide 30: Attitudes to Europe
Attitudes to Europe What the world thinks
Slide 31: Best things about the European Union
Best things about the European Union Souce: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British adults It has helped free trade between European countries 38% It has given people the freedom to move to and live in other European 27% countries It has ensured peace and stability in Europe 21
Slide 32: Worst things about the European Union
Best things about the European Union Souce: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British adults It has interfered too much in how member countries run their affairs 45% It has allowed too many immigrants from Eastern Europe to come to 43% countries like Britain It costs too much mon
Slide 33: Country will be a member of the EU years from now
‘[COUNTRY] will be a member of the European Union 20 years from now’ Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 20-27 February 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 100 6 13 3 12 18 17 90 22 6 6 9 80 7 7 10 6 26 9 9 16 70 16 15 Percentage 60 13 22 18 50 18 40 45 43 39 30 32 35 32 20 10 14 13 14 14 11 6 0
Slide 34: I understand why the European Union exists
‘I understand why the European Union exists’ Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 20-27 February 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 100 4 4 6 3 6 3 3 3 3 6 5 90 9 9 6 10 9 7 80 12 16 14 19 16 19 70 19 Percentage 60 50 49 52 40 48 53 51 41 30 20 10 17 20 18 12 13 14 0 Britain Germany France Denmar
Slide 35: Country gets a good deal from EU membership
‘[COUNTRY] gets a good deal from being a member of the European Union’ Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 20-27 February 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 100 4 7 8 5 11 5 7 90 11 10 15 10 15 80 20 17 18 19 70 22 26 Percentage 60 28 25 19 50 29 25 40 23 30 36 31 36 20 26 29 22 10 11 10 4 5 5 6
Slide 36: The European Union is a good thing
‘All things considered, the European Union is a good thing’ Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 20-27 February 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 100 3 4 5 5 3 9 7 90 10 12 10 15 9 15 80 15 19 19 70 21 19 Percentage 26 60 23 22 23 50 22 23 40 30 39 39 35 35 31 31 20 10 7 10 7 8 8 9 0 Britain Ger
Slide 37: Life would be better if not an EU member
‘Life in [COUNTRY] would be better if it was NOT a member of the European Union Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 20-27 February 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 100 6 9 9 8 12 8 90 15 16 16 15 13 18 80 70 27 20 22 22 29 Percentage 60 27 50 17 20 21 40 25 20 17 30 26 24 20 19 22 18 18 10 10
Slide 38: The EU needs significant reform
‘The way the European Union works needs significant reform’ Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 20-27 February 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 100 4 6 1 8 7 6 10 5 3 1 1 1 90 1 5 4 4 6 4 80 20 14 16 21 19 25 70 Percentage 60 50 38 43 44 41 45 40 41 30 20 31 28 29 26 23 10 21 0 Britain Germany
Slide 39: Which of these options would you prefer?
Which of these options would you prefer? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British adults A more integrated European Union, with more decisions being 3% taken by the EU Keeping broadly the current balance of powers between the EU 18% and individual member states A less in
Slide 40: Which of these options would you prefer?
Which of these options would you prefer? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British adults 100 90 80 70 Percentage 60 50 40 69 30 20 24 27 10 17 9 0 GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Britain leaving the European Union altogether 40
Slide 41: Which of these options would you prefer?
Which of these options would you prefer? Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014 Sample: >1,000 adults per country 100 90 80 70 Percentage 60 50 40 30 20 24 25 10 19 12 13 15 0 Britain Germany France Denmark Sweden Finland [COUNTRY] leaving the European Union altogether 41
Slide 42: 2014 European Elections in Context
2014 European Elections in Context The rise of Ukip is on a different scale to previous occasions and is not just about Europe Part of a wider scepticism across many parts of Europe EU failing to win big narrative battles with reform the preferred option European Elections have major implica
Slide 43: Email: [email protected]
Email: [email protected] Twitter: @JoeTwyman 43
Slide 44: European Election – the qualitative study
European Election – the qualitative study
Slide 45: We ran online focus groups across four European countries
We ran online focus groups across four European countries Moderated locally by our qualitative teams in UK, France, Sweden and Germany YouGov panel members 8-10 participants in each country Mix of ages, gender and political affiliation Mix of those planning/not planning to vote in the EU elections 4
Slide 46: How European do you think you are?
How European do you think you are? Least “I identify myself strongly as a European, Most but not only as that. I probably have more affinity to northern Europe when it comes to values.” “I see myself as being “I identify myself as a from Derbyshire, the East person who lives in Midlands, then Britis
Slide 47: How do the countries perceive their role in the EU?
How do the countries perceive their role in the EU? “The “End of the “The eco “The money passenger” affair ” warrior” lender” 47
Slide 48: The rise of Euro scepticism in Britain and France
The rise of Euro scepticism in Britain and France • UKIP is shaping the agenda – and UKIP supporters are placing much more emphasis on Europe within the agenda • Immigration has become a topical issue – dividing opinion • BUT: many feel that Britain has lost its way in Europe – want to be part of it
Slide 49: In Germany and Sweden there is a stronger sense of place in the EU
In Germany and Sweden there is a stronger sense of place in the EU • While those in Germany recognise that Germany is setting the EU agenda, this does always lead on to positive feelings about EU membership. • Many feel that whilst Germany is strong and influential in Europe and in the world general
Slide 50: Love or Loathe? High media interest in the UK
Love or Loathe? High media interest and everyone has an opinion on the EU elections in the UK 50
Slide 51: Everyone is talking about Europe…
Everyone is talking about Europe… The prominence of UKIP The referendum debate The 2015 general election • UKIP were felt to be more • Voters are now seeing the • The 2015 general election is also prominent than ever before and elections as an in/out vote on shaping the EU election this year – there
Slide 52: BUT in the rest of Europe… what elections?
BUT in the rest of Europe… what elections? 52
Slide 53: Mixed Interest in France
Mixed Interest in France Voters feel it is important to vote at the EU elections the lack of media coverage and information means their interest is mixed Limited media coverage Lack of information and transparency But despite this… French participants are planning to vote and most had decided who th
Slide 54: Business as usual in Sweden
Business as usual in Sweden While those in Sweden feel it is their duty to vote, there is limited interest in the EU elections this year – it is business as usual in Sweden. 2014 general election Single issue parties • The EU elections have been • Many felt that the smaller parties would overshadowe
Slide 55: No party or issue is dominating the agenda
No party or issue is dominating the agenda There is no special topic and no special political party dominating the campaign. Angela Merkel will benefit most. Low interest Angela Merkel • Most intended to vote – but had not • With no party or issues dominating the yet decided who to vote for. debate,
Slide 56: What's the verdict?
What’s the verdict? "Participants show a real interest in the European elections, although they feel they are not sufficiently informed about the elections and criticize the media about this. The key issues of European elections in France are primarily employment and economic situation. The majority
Slide 57: What's the verdict?
What’s the verdict? “In Sweden it is a big election year this year with the upcoming national election in September. This explains why people are not as interested in the EU election to some extent, as the general election is demanding media attention - the current government is up for a fight after
Slide 58: What's the verdict
What’s the verdict “Those we spoke to weren’t very interested in the European Elections. Most of them don’t know who to vote for and they are still in the process of collecting information about the key issues/debate. Most don’t know the top candidates of the parties. Only Martin Schulz from the Soc
Slide 59: What's the verdict
What’s the verdict “The media interest in the EU elections has certainly had an impact, with most of our focus group respondents certain they will turn out to vote on May 22nd this year – it’s serious business However, very few of them are actually focusing on the issues of Europe itself – they are
Slide 60: Overall
Overall • Divergent opinions • Uncertainty about the future • EU plays a valuable role – but where is it going? How is it changing and adapting • How does the EU fit into the global picture 60
Slide 61: Email: [email protected]
Email: [email protected] 61
Slide 62: Questions
Questions You What the world thinks