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Peel Hunt — Investor Presentation (July 2024)
12 slides from Peel Hunt's investor presentation, Jul 29, 2024
Slide 1: Economic Outlook: Broadening expansion
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Broadening expansion If the tail-risks are avoided, major economies can surprise to the upside 29 JULY 2024 Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 +44 7931 353730 [email protected]
Slide 2: Riding out the risks
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 Riding out the risks Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Broadening expansion for major economies despite structural challenges and heightened risks Outlook – cyclical upswing in Europe and Japan…sustained US m
Slide 3: Summary of economic and financial projections
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 Summary of economic and financial projections Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Peel Hunt economic projections Key economic forecast changes GDP Inflation Unemployment Industrial production • We make no major
Slide 4: UK: Back to more normal times
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 UK: Back to more normal times Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Political stability and fading headwinds underpin cyclical upswing 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 UK: Bloomberg con
Slide 5: US: The presidential factor
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 US: The presidential factor Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Slowing momentum first, cyclical recovery after as Fed eases 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 US: Bloomberg consensus,
Slide 6: Eurozone: Bouncing back from the trade shock
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 Eurozone: Bouncing back from the trade shock Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Fading external headwinds and ECB easing lift activity 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 Eurozone: Bloo
Slide 7: Germany: Slowly building recovery momentum
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 Germany: Slowly building recovery momentum Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] A myriad of cross-winds hold back domestic activity and export-oriented production 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q2
Slide 8: France: Uncertain upswing amid political uncertainty
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 France: Uncertain upswing amid political uncertainty Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Domestic political shifts could undermine the benefits of past structural reforms 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24
Slide 9: China: Spluttering expansion, serious structural challenges
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 China: Spluttering expansion, serious structural challenges Structural slowdown in growth potential as long-term challenges mount 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 China: Bloomberg consensus, real GDP GDP % YoY 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.2 5
Slide 10: Japan: Cyclical uptick and sustained inflation
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 Japan: Cyclical uptick and sustained inflation Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] With the return of inflation, the BoJ is tiptoeing towards policy normalisation 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q
Slide 11: Consensus and financial forecasts
Peel Hunt economic projections - 29 July 2024 Consensus and financial forecasts Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Bloomberg consensus data taken on 26 July 2024 at 07:00 BST Bloomberg consensus GDP Inflation Unemployment Industrial production 2024 2025 2
Slide 12: Disclaimer/Risk Warning
Disclaimer/Risk Warning This document has been prepared by Peel Hunt LLP (“Peel Hunt”) and is for the use of the addressee only. It may not be copied or distributed to any other person without the written consent of Peel Hunt. This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable and