ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna — PKN Orlen — Q3 2017 Earnings Presentation
35 slides from ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Oct 19, 2017
Slide 1: PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 3Q17
PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 3Q17 19 October 2017 #ORLEN3Q17@PKN_ORLEN
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 2
Slide 3: Key highlights 3Q17
Key highlights 3Q17 EBITDA LIFO: PLN 3,0 bn Favourable macro environment Value creation Record-high throughput Sales volumes increase by 10% (y/y) „First fire” of gas turbine in CCGT Płock Platts TOP250 – 43th place among the largest energy companies in the world People PKN ORLEN in the FTSE4Good in
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 4
Slide 5: Macro environment in 3Q17 (y/y)
Macro environment in 3Q17 (y/y) Downstream margin increase Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 ∆ (y/y) +2,9 USD/bbl Diesel 66 79 96 45% 13,6 13,9 Gasoline 125 161 164 31% 12,0 12,1 HHO 11,0 -119 -99 -100 16% SN 15
Slide 6: Diesel consumption increase (y/y)
Diesel consumption increase (y/y) Positive impact of regulations limiting grey zone in Poland GDP increase1 Fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)2 Change (%) to respective quarter of the last year mt 3Q16 4Q16 1Q16 2Q17 3Q17 3Q16 3Q17 3Q16 3Q17 + 14% 4,0 3,9 3,7÷4,2 + 7% 2,4 2,5 3,72 4,24 Poland 1,10
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 7
Slide 8: Financial results in 3Q17
Financial results in 3Q17 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 PLN m 9M16 9M17 Revenues: increase by 17% (y/y) due to higher + 17% +25% crude oil prices and sales volumes 21 083 23 025 24 730 56 651 70 630 Revenues EBITDA LIFO: increase by PLN 0,8 bn (y/y) due to + 1,7 bn + 0,8 bn higher sales volumes and better macro li
Slide 9: EBITDA LIFO
EBITDA LIFO Segments’ results in 3Q17 PLN m 610 53 3 047* Downstream: positive impact of higher sales volumes and 2 513 -129 better macro limited by lack of positive effect recorded in 3Q16 from insurance for Steam Cracker failure in Unipetrol and lower trade margins (y/y) Downstream Retail Upstream
Slide 10: Downstream – EBITDA LIFO
Downstream – EBITDA LIFO Higher sales volumes and better macro EBITDA LIFO PLN m Higher throughput by 19% (y/y) due to full utilisation in all 3000 refineries 2712 2550 2513 Sales volumes increase by 11% (y/y), of which: higher sales 2291 2363 (y/y) of diesel by 9%, LPG by 21%, olefin by 54%, polyol
Slide 11: Downstream – operational data
Downstream – operational data Record-high throughput and sales volumes increase Sales volumes +11% Utilization ratio mt % 8,9 9 Refineries 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 ∆ (y/y) 8,1 8,1 8,2 7,9 7,9 Płock 98% 79% 100% 2 pp 8 7,7 7,6 Unipetrol 48% 96% 97% 49 pp 7,3 7,2 ORLEN Lietuva 96% 89% 106% 10 pp 7 6,8 Petrochem
Slide 12: Retail – EBITDA LIFO
Retail – EBITDA LIFO Sales volumes and non-fuel margins increase EBITDA LIFO PLN m Sales volumes increase by 8% (y/y) 800 Market share increase in the Czech Rep. (y/y) 619 610 576 600 539 Non-fuel margins increase on Polish and Czech markets 441 440 at comparable margins on German and Lithuanian 349
Slide 13: Retail – operational data
Retail – operational data Sales volumes increase and further non-fuel offer development Sales volumes Number of petrol stations and market shares (by volume) mt #, % + 8% 2,5 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,0 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,5 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Stop Cafe in Polan
Slide 14: Upstream – EBITDA LIFO
Upstream – EBITDA LIFO Increase of average production by 18% (y/y) EBITDA LIFO Average production PLN m th. boe/d 120 20 + 18% 99* 16,7 80 82 15,0 15 14,2 13,9 14,4 13,2*** 12,8 58 60 53** 42 27 10 7,4 7,3 14 13 10 6,7 6,8 7 5 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q1
Slide 15: Upstream
Upstream Poland Canada Total reserves of crude oil and gas (2P) Total reserves of crude oil and gas (2P) Ca. 11 m boe* Ca. 103 m boe* (43%liquid hydrocarbons, 57% gas) 3Q17 3Q17 Average production: 1,0 th. boe/d (100% gas) Average production: 15,7 th. boe/d (40% liquid hydrocarbons) EBITDA**: PLN 0
Slide 16: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 16
Slide 17: Cash flow
Cash flow Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments PLN bn PLN bn 3,0 0,4 3,0 -0,1 -0,3 0,1 -1,0 -0,9 EBITDA LIFO Effect Working capital Others Net inflow CAPEX CAPEX liabilities Net outflow LIFO decrease from 3Q17 change and others from 3Q17 operations investment 3Q17 3Q17 Working capita
Slide 18: Financial strength
Financial strength Net debt and gearing Gross debt structure: PLN bn, % Financial gearing EUR 76%, PLN 23%, CAD 1% Average maturity in 2021 18,3 Investment grade: BBB- stable outlook (Fitch), Baa2 stable outlook (Moody’s) 11,5 11,6 5,0 Net debt decrease of PLN 0,6 bn (q/q) due to positive cash flow
Slide 19: CAPEX
CAPEX Planned CAPEX 2017 Realized CAPEX in 9M17 – split by segments PLN bn, % PLN bn 5,5 0,6 0,1 2,9 Downstream 2,1 0,4 5,8 Growth 3,3 Retail 0,4 1,8 5,1 Upstream 0,8 Energy 0,3 Petrochemicals 0,8 Maintenance and regulatory 2,2 0,7 Refining CAPEX Downstream Detal Wydobycie Funkcje CAPEX 2017 korpora
Slide 20: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 3Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 20
Slide 21: Market outlook for 2017
Market outlook for 2017 Macro Brent crude oil price – expected increase of yearly average crude oil price vs. the average for 2016 due to limited supply as a result of the main producers (OPEC) agreement at simultaneous higher production in US and higher consumption. Downstream margin – expected inc
Slide 22: Thank you for your attention
Thank you for your attention For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] www.orlen.pl
Slide 23: Supporting slides
Agenda Supporting slides 23 23
Slide 24: Results – split by quarter
Results – split by quarter PLN m 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 ∆ (y/y) 9M16 9M17 ∆ Revenues 21 083 23 025 24 730 17% 56 651 70 630 25% EBITDA LIFO 2 226 3 058 3 047 37% 6 757 8 426 25% LIFO effect 87 -344 -107 - -441 68 - EBITDA 2 313 2 714 2 940 27% 6 316 8 494 34% Depreciation -537 -581 -616 -15% -1 560 -1 759 -
Slide 25: Results – split by segment
Results – split by segment 3Q17 Corporate Downstream Retail Upstream TOTAL PLN m functions EBITDA LIFO 2 513 610 53 -129 3 047 LIFO effect -107 - - - -107 EBITDA 2 406 610 53 -129 2 940 Depretiation -394 -104 -89 -29 -616 EBIT 2 012 506 -36 -158 2 324 EBIT LIFO 2 119 506 -36 -158 2 431 3Q16 Corporat
Slide 26: EBITDA LIFO – split by segment
EBITDA LIFO – split by segment PLN m 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 ∆ (y/y) 9M16 9M17 ∆ Downstream 1 698 2 550 2 513 48% 5 744 7 084 23% Retail 619 576 610 -1% 1 361 1 558 14% Upstream 58 82 53 -9% 127 215 69% Corporate functions -149 -150 -129 13% -475 -431 9% EBITDA LIFO 2 226 3 058 3 047 37% 6 757 8 426 25% * Da
Slide 27: Results - split by company
Results - split by company Others and 3Q17 ORLEN consolidation PLN m PKN ORLEN S.A. Unipetrol 2) Lietuva 2) corrections Total Revenues 18 224 5 043 4 256 -2 793 24 730 EBITDA LIFO 1 628 556 343 520 3 047 LIFO effect 1) -34 -77 2 2 -107 EBITDA 1 594 479 345 522 2 940 Depreciation -311 -110 -19 -176 -
Slide 28: ORLEN Lietuva Group
ORLEN Lietuva Group USD m 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 ∆ r/r 9M16 9M17 ∆ Revenues 949 954 1 174 24% 2 494 3 141 26% EBITDA LIFO 48 58 95 98% 202 194 -4% EBITDA 31 54 96 210% 175 203 16% EBIT 28 49 91 225% 165 190 15% Net result 14 50 72 414% 142 165 16% Sales volumes increase in 3Q17 by 9% (y/y) mainly as a resul
Slide 29: UNIPETROL Group
UNIPETROL Group CZK m 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 ∆ y/y 9M16 9M17 ∆ Revenues 23 110 31 181 30 904 34% 61 347 91 935 50% EBITDA LIFO 1 936 6 549 3 414 76% 6 875 13 579 98% EBITDA 1 398 6 060 2 934 110% 6 224 12 965 108% EBIT 918 5 369 2 259 146% 4 839 10 975 127% Net result 739 3 594 1 539 108% 3 852 7 971 107% S
Slide 30: Macro environment in 4Q17
Macro environment in 4Q17 Downstream margin increase Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17* ∆ Q/Q ∆ Y/Y +1,2 USD/bbl Diesel 87 96 103 7% 18% 13,6 13,9 Gasoline 131 164 135 -18% 3% 13,2 12,0 12,1 HHO -110 -100 -114 -
Slide 31: Macro environment in 4Q17
Macro environment in 4Q17 Refining margin and B/U differential decrease Petrochemical margin increase Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl Model petrochemical margin, EUR/t differential margin + 28 EUR/t - 0,4 USD/bbl 1.003 8,9 957 930 934 8,0 8,4 906 911 7,4 1,0 7,6 6,7 1,5 2,
Slide 32: Production data
Production data 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 ∆ (y/y) ∆ (q/q) 9M16 9M17 ∆ Total crude oil throughput in PKN ORLEN 7 532 7 622 8 966 19% 18% 21 839 24 482 12% Utilization in PKN ORLEN 86% 87% 102% 16 pp 15 pp 83% 93% 10 pp Refinery in Poland 1 Processed crude (kt) 4 003 3 222 4 064 2% 26% 11 330 10 970 -3% Utilizat
Slide 33: Dictionary
Dictionary Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas) Model refining margin = revenues (9
Slide 34: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by PKN ORLEN S.A. (“PKN ORLEN” or “Company”). Neither the Presentation nor any copy hereof may be copied, distributed or delivered directly or indirectly to any person for any purpose without PKN ORLEN’s knowledge and consent. Copying,
Slide 35: Contact Investor Relations Department
For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] www.orlen.pl