Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP

Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (December 2016)

81 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, December 2016

  1. Slide 1: Presentation to Investors, December 2016

    Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors December 2016

  2. Slide 2: Disclaimer

    -2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad

  3. Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values

    -3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil

  4. Slide 4: Corporate Governance

    -4- Corporate Governance Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all for Stakeholders stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity,

  5. Slide 5: Our Achievement in Sustainable Development

    -5- Our Achievement in Sustainable Development 3rd Consecutive Year of leading positions: Energy Industry Group Leader Oil and Gas Industry Leader 4th Consecutive Year as the Member of DJSI Emerging Markets 2nd Consecutive Year of leading positions: Oil and Gas Industry Leader

  6. Slide 6: Presentation Agenda

    -6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX

  7. Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview

    -7- TOP Group Business Overview

  8. Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT

    -8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 15.2% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major 12.9% shareholder and key 49.1% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length 22.9% and in adherence with PTT strong corporate 49.1%

  9. Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain

    -9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold

  10. Slide 10: Key Milestones: 55 Years, A Long Track Record of Success

    -10- Key Milestones: 55 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery

  11. Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure

    -11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to • 5 Oil & Chemical Tankers Mitr Phol 3

  12. Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration

    -12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Aromatics ADIP FUELGAS Oil Refinery ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 JET KMT-2 50,000 CDU-3 165,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 Lube Base HVU-2 HVU-3 FCCU HDS-2 10,400 95,000

  13. Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries

    -13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,252 kbd Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share 34% 36% Nameplate Capacity market market Fang (3 kbpd) shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner Q3/16 Q2/16 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso (1

  14. Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets

    -14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Close proximity to the key domestic markets Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the key domestic markets and VIETNAM Indochina Bangkok Sri

  15. Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

    -15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** % S = 1.43 % S = 2.52 % S = 0.78 % S = 1.97 SAUDI 1 LPG Others *** 7% 4% API = 32.0 API = 31.2 API = 39.4 API =

  16. Slide 16: Refinery: Ongoing High Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales Portion

    -16- Refinery: Ongoing High Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales Portion TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate AEC Oil Demand Growth Unit: % Utilization Rate Unit: % Demand Growth YoY 110% 109% 8.9% 108% 110% 106%107%107% 107% 107% 102% 6.5% 6.5% 6.8% 98% 5.9% 5.8% 5.7% 5.0% 3.8% 5.4% 90% 94% 95% 94%

  17. Slide 17: Competitive Performance Benchmarking

    -17- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross margin and overall performance range and come up with comp

  18. Slide 18: TOP Group Key Highlights

    -18- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati

  19. Slide 19: Key Financial Highlights

    -19- Key Financial Highlights

  20. Slide 20: Q3/16 Key Market Drivers Highlights

    Key Highlights -20- Q3/16 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Implication  Slightly soften MKT GRM mainly pressured by lower Soften Mkt GRM at 4.3 $/bbl* gasoline spread from abundant inventory worldwide but (Q2/16 = 4.4 $/bbl) offset by lower crude premium & stronger fuel oil spread  Weaken Du

  21. Slide 21: Q3/16 Key Achievements

    Key Highlights -21- Q3/16 Key Achievements Key Achievements Q3/16 TOP Group Net Profit Unit : million THB (MB) Operational  Optimized Refinery & Aromatics Net Operating Profit (before tax) Stock G/(L) (before tax) Excellence run, while lower run on Lube Base due to Reversal of NRV/(NRV) (before tax

  22. Slide 22: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost

    Financial -22- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (Net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) 7.8 6.4 6.2 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.1 4.9 4.1 4.

  23. Slide 23: Financial Performance

    Financial -23- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB 447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 446,241 399,125 414,575 390,090 31,099 318,391 28,760 22,808 22,337 25,492 284,123 293,569 22,897 23,868 21,393 20,350 22,590 17,381 19,713 19

  24. Slide 24: Q3/16 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios

    Financial -24- Q3/16 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Sep 16 1) (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt 192,166 206,209 203,865 74,374 million THB 19,134 million THB Cash & ST (US$ 2,133 million (US

  25. Slide 25: 2016 Dividend Payment

    Financial -25- 2016 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 9.40 9.19 1H dividend Year Dividend 7.82 8.13 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 6.12 4.39 4.57 2.75 2.00 2.00 1.0

  26. Slide 26: Strategic Investment Plans

    -26- Strategic Investment Plans

  27. Slide 27: Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out, Pursuing Sustainability

    Strategy -27- Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out ,Pursuing Sustainability Vision A Leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical company in Asia Pacific END Vision Top quartile Top Qrt ROIC & DJSI Measurement performer NP Growth (Sustainability) by 2021 • Operational excellence • Complete p

  28. Slide 28: Thaioil Group Investment Matrix

    Strategy -28- Thaioil Group Investment Matrix New Geography Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia  Integrated Downstream (B2B, B2C/retail, logistics, trading) New Business AEC (Technology driven)  Specialties Core Business Growth Integrated Refinery Solvent, Marine, Power, Ethanol Thailand Refinery Downstre

  29. Slide 29: Strategic Investment Plan: Updated CAPEX plan

    Updated CAPEX plan -29- Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Remaining capital investment Projects COD Total Project Cost Our CAPEX (2011-2018) 2015 2016 2017 2018 investments will Reliability, efficiency and flexibility 2013-2018 353 21 63 32 24 cover improvements improvement in

  30. Slide 30: Key Projects Update: Successfully COD of LAB & TOP SPP

    Key Projects Update -30- Key Projects Update : Successfully COD of LAB & TOP SPP Project : LAB Project : TOP SPP TPX 75% & Mitsui 25% , CAPEX 400 M$ TOP owns 100% , CAPEX 380 M$ Feedstock : Kerosene 532 KTA, Benzene 33 KTA Power capacity : 239 MW (20% TOP Group & 80% EGAT) Product : LAB 100 KTA, By

  31. Slide 31: Study Project: Clean Fuel Project (CFP)

    Project Update -31- Study Project : Clean Fuel Project (CFP) Main objectives of CFP  Enhance competitive advantage of the refinery and maintain 1st quartile performer  Enhance capability to upgrade lower value product into higher value product and ability to process heavier (cheaper) crude oil CFP

  32. Slide 32: Q4-16 & 2017 Market Outlook

    -32- Q4-16 & 2017 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)

  33. Slide 33: Crude Oil

    -33- CRUDE OIL

  34. Slide 34: World Economic Outlook

    Crude Oil -34- World Economic Outlook 2017’s world GDP growth at 3.4% and gradually rises throughout 2021 Growth (%YoY) China India Thailand US EU World 2016 2017 2018-21 Oct-16(1) Oct-16(1) Oct-16(1) 12% US 1.6% 2.2% 1.8% 8% EU 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% China 6.6% 6.2% 5.9% 4% India 7.6% 7.6% 7.9% 0% Thailand

  35. Slide 35: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection

    Crude Oil -35- Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasted 2017’s global oil demand to grow by 1.2 MBD, driven by Asia Europe FSU North America Unit: KBD 400 210 140 2015 60 190 2016 80 -20 2017 -20 Middle East -30 120 Latin America Asia 1090 870 820 -10 20 -60 Africa -60 220 -80 140 140 Dema

  36. Slide 36: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection

    Crude Oil -36- Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated 2017’s Non-OPEC oil supply growth to grow by 400 KBD North America Europe FSU Unit: KBD 900 200 210 2015 100 100 2016 0 100 100 2017 Middle East -680 0 0 Latin America Asia -10 200 200 220 Africa 80 -190 -100 0 -360 Non OPEC Growth Remar

  37. Slide 37: Crude Oil Market: Oil Market Rebalances in 2017

    Crude Oil -37- Crude Oil Market: Oil Market Rebalances in 2017 Dubai Price Movement $/BBL China’s stock OPEC failed to No consensus on 80 market crash output freeze OPEC agreed to cut agree on an 60 output ceiling BREXIT output to 32.5 MBD 40 Iran’s nuclear Canada wildfire 20 deal done & Nigerian ou

  38. Slide 38: Positive Sentiments Over OPEC's Oil Production Cut Deal

    Crude Oil -38- 1 Positive Sentiments Over OPEC’s Oil Production Cut Deal A Increasing Oil Price Due to OPEC’s Talk to Cut C OPEC Targets As Announced on 30 Nov $/BBL ICE Brent Crude Price Movement Production 70 Reference Unit : MBD Production Adjustment Level effective 30 Nov Jan’17 26-28 Sep OPEC t

  39. Slide 39: Market Rebalancing from Lower U.S. Oil Output and Firm Demand Growth

    Crude Oil Market Rebalancing from Lower U.S. Oil Output and -39- 2 Firm Demand Growth in 2017 A Declining U.S. Oil Output B Market to Rebalance in 2017 MBD Non-OPEC Oil Supply Change (YoY) Global Demand/Supply Balance 1.5 MBD MBD 2017 1.0 100 Demand: + 1.2 MBD YoY 4.0 98 3.0 0.5 2.0 96 0.0 1.0 94 -0

  40. Slide 40: Petroleum Products

    -40- PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

  41. Slide 41: Higher Refinery Margins from Demand Growth Outpacing Capacity Addition

    Refinery -41- Higher Refinery Margins from Demand Growth Outpacing Refinery Capacity Addition Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.5 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.7 5.8 6.1 5.0 5.2 Y2014 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Y2015 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16TD Y2016TD Actual Forecast Sources: Reuters, TOP’s estimate ($/BBL) Q1-16 Q2-16

  42. Slide 42: Better Refinery Margins in Q4-16 from Tighter Supply

    Refinery Better Refinery Margins in Q4-16 from Tighter -42- 1 Supply and Improved Distillate Demand A Tight Supply from Shutdown of Mega Refineries B Demand on the Upside from La NiNa Saudi Arabia and India Gasoline Export Percent of La Nina Development KBD Yasref (400KBD) & 800 Reliance Industries

  43. Slide 43: Higher Refinery Margins in 2017 from Demand Growth

    Refinery -43- Higher Refinery Margins in 2017 from Demand Growth 2 Outpacing Refinery Capacity Addition Demand Growth Better Than Refinery Addition in 2017 CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Middle East China Japan India Other AP Vietnam Teapot Net Addition AP & ME Demand KBD 3500 3141 3000

  44. Slide 44: Higher Refinery Margins in 2017 (Cont.)

    Refinery -44- Higher Refinery Margins in 2017 from Demand Growth 2 Outpacing Refinery Capacity Addition (Cont.) A Better Middle Distillate from Recovered Demand B Strong Gasoline from Demand Outpacing Supply World Gasoil Demand & Supply Growth YoY World Gasoline Demand & Supply Growth YoY KBD KBD 12

  45. Slide 45: Thailand Oil Demand Growth

    Domestic -45- Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth Average (B) 9M-16(B) Year on Year Y 2015 Y 2017(C) 2011-2015(B) (vs. 9M-15) Mogas (A) +7.1% +13.3% +11.1% +1.3% Jet/Kero +4.4% +9.7% +7.5% +3.7% Diesel (A) +3.4% +4.0% +3.7% +2.4% Total +4.4% +7.1% +6.2% +2.3% GDP +3.4% +2.8% N/A +3

  46. Slide 46: Aromatics

    -46- AROMATICS

  47. Slide 47: Higher Additional Capacity Pressuring Aromatics Market

    Aromatics -47- Higher Additional Capacity Pressuring Aromatics Market Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 332 341 315 317 288 281 255 246 256 233 174 169 165 156 138 115 101 98 97 74 Q3-16 Y2016TD Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Y2015 Q4TD-16 Q1-16 Y2016TD Q1-

  48. Slide 48: Softer PX Market from New Capacity Addition

    Aromatics -48- 1 Softer PX Market from New Capacity Addition A New PX Capacity Addition Pressures Market B Reducing Operating Rate amid Higher Capacity AP & ME Effective PX Capacity Addition AP & ME PX Demand and Capacity Operating Mil TON Reliance Industry is expected to start up Mil TON Rate phase

  49. Slide 49: AP/ME PX Demand and Capacity Outlook

    Aromatics -49- AP/ME PX Demand and Capacity Outlook PX-ULG95 313 545 471 485 279 256 Mil Ton Utilization Rate (%) Forecast 2010-2015 2016-2020 60 100% Dem: 7.2% Dem: 4.0% Cap: 8.1% Cap: 4.6% 50 50 50 47 90% 45 40 42 40 39 41 38 37 34 36 30 33 33 80% 30 31 31 29 30 26 27 20 24 70% 10 0 60% 2010 2012

  50. Slide 50: Stable BZ Market on Balancing Demand and Capacity Growth

    Aromatics -50- 2 Stable BZ Market on Balancing Demand and Capacity Growth A New BZ Capacity Will Come Online in 2017 B Firmer Demand Growth Supports BZ Market AP & ME Effective BZ Capacity Addition AP & ME BZ Demand and Capacity Operating Mil TON Rate Mil TON Reliance Industry is expected to start u

  51. Slide 51: AP/ME BZ Demand and Capacity Outlook

    Aromatics -51- AP/ME BZ Demand and Capacity Outlook BZ-ULG95 165 87 157 288 268 97 Forecast Utilization Rate (%) Mil Ton 2010-2015 2016-2020 60 Dem: 4.7% Dem: 3.8% 90% Cap: 5.0% Cap: 1.7% 50 40 80% 40 40 41 41 37 38 38 34 30 33 33 31 30 28 29 26 27 25 25 20 22 23 24 70% 22 10 0 60% 2010 2012 2014 20

  52. Slide 52: Base Oil & Bitumen

    -52- BASE OIL & BITUMEN

  53. Slide 53: Stable Base Oil Market on Lower Global Base Oil Capacity Addition

    Base Oil & Bitumen -53- Stable Base Oil Market on Lower Global Base Oil Capacity Addition 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) 1 Global Additional Nameplate Capacity 506 Mil TON 495 450 431 427 409 443 369 399 374 412 8.0 4.8 6.0 4.0 0.7 2.0 1.0 -0.3 Y2014 Y2015 Q4TD-16 Y2016TD Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q

  54. Slide 54: Stable Base Oil Market on Lower Global Capacity Addition

    Base Oil & Bitumen -54- Stable Base Oil Market on Lower Global Base Oil Capacity Addition 1 Global Additional Nameplate Capacity Million TON 8.0 6.0 4.8 4.0 2.9 1.7 0.7 2.0 1.1 1.0 -0.3 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Group I Group II Group III Net Capacity Change 2 Global

  55. Slide 55: Softer Bitumen Market on Accumulated Inventory in 2017

    Base Oil & Bitumen -55- Softer Bitumen Market on Accumulated Inventory in 2017 Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) 1 Import Volume of Major Asian Players in 2016 98 KTON/MONTH China KTON/MONTH India 82 56 23 20 600 150 400 100 -32 -7 200 50 -48 -61 -50 -76 0 0 Y2016TD Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Y201

  56. Slide 56: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)

    -56- Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)

  57. Slide 57: Stronger LAB Market on Steady Demand Growth

    LAB -57- Stronger LAB Market on Steady Demand Growth LAB Market LAB CFR SEA - BZ FOB Korea ($/TON) KTA Capacity-Demand 400 591 557 582 549 544 569 513 528 515 503 450 300 200 100 0 -100 Y2014 Y2015 Q4TD-16 Y2016TD Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 -200 AP/ME SEA 2016 2017 LAB-BZ (Actual) For

  58. Slide 58: Conclusion

    -58- CONCLUSION

  59. Slide 59: 2017 Market Outlook Conclusion

    Conclusion -59- 2017 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. 2016) Crude Oil Higher crude oil prices from rebalancing market Higher refinery margins from demand growth outpacing Refinery refinery capacity addition Softer Aromatics market from additional capacity outpaces Aromatics demand growth Stable Base O

  60. Slide 60: Appendix

    -60- APPENDIX • Q3/16 Performance analysis • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products

  61. Slide 61: Q3/16: Stable Market GRM but Incurred Inventory Loss

    Refining -61- Q3/16: Stable Market GRM but Incurred Inventory Loss Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2015 2016 2015 Q2/16 Q3/16 9M/16 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M FY15 109% 107% 108% DUBAI (DB) 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7 30.4 43.2 43.2 38.9 50.9 % MB Intake/OSP* ULG95

  62. Slide 62: Q3/16: Improved Margins by Good Demand & Lower Feed Cost

    Aromatics/LAB -62- Q3/16: Improved Margins by Good Demand & Lower Feed Cost Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2015 2016 2015 Q2/16 Q3/16 9M/16 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M FY15 80% 80% 80% PX*-ULG95 255 246 233 288 332 315 341 329 256 Q4TD (9 Dec 16) PX-ULG95 = 281 $/ton BZ-ULG95 9

  63. Slide 63: Q3/16: Improved P2F Supported by Higher Domestic Sales Portion

    Aromatics/LAB -63- Q3/16: Improved P2F Supported by Higher Domestic Sales Portion LAB Price, Spread, Production & P2F Margin Market Highlight + Slightly soften LAB spread 2016 pressured by low seasonal $/ton Q1* Q2 Q3 9M* demand during monsoon season in Asia LAB 1,087 1,156 1,155 1,133 Performance H

  64. Slide 64: Q3/16: Fallen Contribution as Planned Maintenance & Lower Base Oil Sales

    Lube Base Oil -64- Q3/16: Fallen Contribution as Planned Maintenance & Lower Base Oil Sales Volume Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2015 2016 2015 Q2/16 Q3/16 9M/16 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M FY15 84% 62% 78% 500SN-HSFO 369 399 506 450 427 409 443 427 431 Q4TD (9 Dec 16) 5

  65. Slide 65: Q3/16 Power Sector Performance…One of Future Earnings Driver

    Power -65- Q3/16 Power Sector Performance…One of Future Earnings Driver Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP GPSC **** Power & Steam Sales ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% via TOP and 20.79% via TP) GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Equity method is applied to recognize Electricity(1) 1,4

  66. Slide 66: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM

    Performance Breakdown -66- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 9.9 12.2 12.8 13.0 14.3 13.4 7.1 6.6 1.4 Product to Feed Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 9M/16 9M/15 8.8 7.4 6.6 8.5 6.1 7.6 4.4 4.3 4.9 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

  67. Slide 67: Q3/16: Performance Breakdown

    Performance Breakdown -67- Q3/16: Performance Breakdown Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: max run to capture strong domestic market • Aromatic/LAB: optimized aromatic run serving good downstream demand & more contribution from LAB due to improving domestic

  68. Slide 68: Q3/16 TOP Group Consolidated P&L

    Financial -68- Q3/16 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (million THB) Q3/16 Q2/16 QoQ+/(-) Q3/15 YoY+/(-) 9M/16 9M/15 YoY+/(-) Sales Revenue 68,476 72,368 (3,892) 74,721 (6,245) 197,635 225,123 (27,488) Hedging Gain 206 (147) 353 547 (341) 87 436 (349) EBITDA 5,392 10,545 (5,153) 2,931 2,461 22,590 19,144 3

  69. Slide 69: 9M/16 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow

    Financial -69- 9M/16 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Operating Cash Flow Investments 9M/16 9M/15 9M/16 9M/15 Operating Cash Flow 17,273 22,537 Investments (20,579) (7,041) Net income & non-cash adj. 22,830 17,950 + ST investments (15,803) 2,253 Change in work

  70. Slide 70: Demand Growth Better Than Refinery Addition

    Refinery -70- Demand Growth Better Than Refinery Addition CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Start-up Country Nameplate Company period (KBD) Middle East China Other AP Q1-16 India 300 IOC Paradip Japan India Vietnam Q2-16 China 60 CNOOC Taizhou Teapot Net Addition AP & ME Demand Q3-16 Qatar

  71. Slide 71: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin

    World GRM -71- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin 89.05% 60.92% 94.39% Total Capacity: 18.5 MBD Total Capacity: 17.0 MBD Total Capacity: 3.1 MBD Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil

  72. Slide 72: Crude Inventory

    Inventories -72- Crude Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy

  73. Slide 73: Global Distillate Inventory

    Inventories -73- Global Distillate Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy

  74. Slide 74: Fuel Oil Inventory

    Inventories -74- Fuel Oil Inventory Source: Norwegian Energy

  75. Slide 75: China's Product Export

    China Export -75- China’s Product Export Source: Norwegian Energy

  76. Slide 76: Domestic LPG Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -76- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight • In 10M/16, LPG demand fell significantly by 10.2%YoY on account of lower usages in all sectors. Most of the decline came from petrochemical sector which its feedstock switching from LPG to Napht

  77. Slide 77: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -77- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight • In 10M/2016, Mogas demand jumped sharply by 10.4%YoY to an average 28.79 ML/day. This was mainly due to lower retail prices and higher number of passenger

  78. Slide 78: Domestic Jet Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -78- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight • In 10M/2016, Jet consumption increased significantly by 7.4% over the corresponding period last year mainly owning to booming tourism industry, leading to 8.8%YoY higher aircraft movement. Th

  79. Slide 79: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -79- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight • In 10M/2016, Diesel demand rose gradually by 3.3% YoY as relatively low retail prices boosted the consumption amidst higher number of accumulated commercial vehicles. Neverthele

  80. Slide 80: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -80- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight • In 10M/2016, Fuel Oil consumption jumped rapidly by 14.8%YoY, as a result of sharply increase by 15.9%YoY in transportation demand. Last year, transport activity in Thai fishery w

  81. Slide 81: Thank You

    -81- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: [email protected] Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976

Thai Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (December 2016) on 6ix