Ford Mtr Co del · NYSE:F
Ford Mtr Co del — Ford Motor Company — Debt Investor Presentation (January 2011)
38 slides from Ford Mtr Co del's debt investor presentation, Jan 28, 2011
Slide 1: 2010 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fixed Income Presentation and 2011 Outlook
2010 FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR FIXED INCOME PRESENTATION AND 2011 OUTLOOK JANUARY 28, 2011 (PRELIMINARY RESULTS)
Slide 2: 2010 Key Financial Summary
TOTAL COMPANY 2010 KEY FINANCIAL SUMMARY* Fourth Quarter Full Year B / (W) B / (W) 2010 2009** 2010 2009** Wholesales (000)*** 1,389 (59) 5,313 447 - Memo: Excl. Volvo in 2009 (000) 41 771 Revenue (Bils.)**** $ 32.5 $ (2.3) $ 120.9 $ 4.6 - Memo: Excl. Volvo in 2009 (Bils.) 1.6 17.0 Operating results
Slide 3: 2010 Special Items
TOTAL COMPANY 2010 SPECIAL ITEMS Fourth Quarter Full Year 2009 2010 2009 2010 (Mils.) (Mils.) (Mils.) (Mils.) Personnel and Dealer-Related Items Personnel-reduction actions $ (169) $ (46) $ (663) $ (164) Mercury discontinuation / Other dealer actions (34) (49) (140) (339) Retiree health care and rel
Slide 4: 2010 Fourth Quarter Cash
AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR 2010 FOURTH QUARTER CASH* Fourth Full Quarter Year (Bils.) (Bils.) Gross Cash December 31, 2010 $ 20.5 $ 20.5 September 30, 2010 / December 31, 2009 23.8 24.9 Change in gross cash $ (3.3) $ (4.4) Operating-Related Cash Flow Automotive pre-tax profits** $ 0.7 $ 5.3 Capital spending
Slide 5: 2010 Automotive Financial Resources
AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR 2010 AUTOMOTIVE FINANCIAL RESOURCES Dec. 31, Sep. 30, Dec. 31, 2009 2010 2010 (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) Automotive gross cash* $ 24.9 $ 23.8 $ 20.5 Less debt: Revolving line of credit $ 7.5 $ 2.5 $ 0.8 VEBA debt 7.0 3.6 - Unsecured convertible notes 2.6 2.6 0.7 Term Loan 5.3 4.9 4.1
Slide 6: 2010 Planning Assumptions and Key Metrics
TOTAL COMPANY 2010 PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY METRICS Full Year Full Year Plan Results Planning Assumptions Industry volume* -- U.S. (Mils.) 11.5 to 12.5 11.8 Industry volume* -- Europe (Mils.)** 13.5 to 14.5 15.3 Operational Metrics Compared with prior year - Quality Improve Improved - Automotive
Slide 7: 2011 Planning Assumptions and Key Metrics
TOTAL COMPANY 2011 PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY METRICS Full Year Plan Planning Assumptions Industry volume* -- U.S. (Mils.) 13.0 - 13.5 Industry Volume* -- Europe (Mils.)** 14.5 - 15.5 Operational Metrics Compared with prior year - Quality Improve - U.S. market share Equal / Improve U.S. retail sha
Slide 8: Ford Credit Results and Metrics -- 2010 Fourth Quarter
FORD CREDIT RESULTS AND METRICS -- 2010 FOURTH QUARTER Pre-Tax Profit (Mils.) Key Metrics Fourth Quarter $(142) On-Balance Sheet 2009 2010 Receivables (Bils.) $ 93 $ 81 Charge-Offs (Mils.) $ 238 $ 101 $714 Loss-to-Receivables Ratio - Worldwide 0.98% 0.47% $572 - U.S. Retail and Lease 1.35 0.78 Allow
Slide 9: 2010 Fourth Quarter Ford Credit Pre-Tax Results Compared with 2009
2010 FOURTH QUARTER FORD CREDIT PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH 2009 Pre-Tax Results (Bils.) $(0.1) $0.7 $0.6 Charge-offs $0.1 Reserves - $0.1 $0.1 $(0.1) $(0.1) $(0.1) 2009 2010 Volume Financing Credit Lease Other Memo: Margin Loss Residual B / (W) 3Q 2010 (0.2) $- $- $- $(0.1) $(0.1) Managed Receiva
Slide 10: 2010 Full Year Ford Credit Pre-Tax Results Compared with 2009
2010 FULL YEAR FORD CREDIT PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH 2009 Pre-Tax Results (Bils.) $1.1 $3.1 Charge-offs $0.7 $2.0 Reserves 0.5 $1.2 $0.6 $0.2 $(0.4) $(0.5) 2009 2010 Volume Financing Credit Lease Other Memo: Margin Loss Residual Managed Receivables* $95 $83 * See Appendix for calculation, defini
Slide 11: Credit Loss Metrics
CREDIT LOSS METRICS* Loss-to-Receivables Ratio Worldwide Ford and Lincoln U.S. Retail & Lease 1.35% 1.15% 0.97% 0.98% 0.91% 0.78% 0.58% 0.59% 0.47% 0.39% 0.45% 0.44% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2010 Worldwide Charge-Offs (Mils.) $240 $238 $133 $86 $95 $101 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2010 * On-balance sheet.
Slide 12: Credit Loss Drivers – Ford and Lincoln U.S. Retail and Lease
CREDIT LOSS DRIVERS – FORD AND LINCOLN U.S. RETAIL AND LEASE* Repossessions (000) Severity 24 $7,700 23 Repo. $7,300 $7,300 $6,700 $6,900 Ratio $6,600 19 3.15% 3.20% 16 2.77% 15 14 2.46% 2.18% 2.22% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2010 2009 2010 Over-60-Day Delinquencies 0.24% 0.20% 0.17% 0
Slide 13: Historical Credit Loss Metrics
HISTORICAL CREDIT LOSS METRICS* U.S. Retail & Lease Average Placement Worldwide On-Balance Sheet FICO Score Loss-to-Receivables Ratio (Pct.) 726 730 715 710 714 719 706 674 685 1.57% 1.51% 1.02% 1.07% 0.84% 0.57% 0.46% 0.47% 0.39% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Slide 14: Historical Credit Loss Drivers – Ford and Lincoln U.S. Retail and Lease
HISTORICAL CREDIT LOSS DRIVERS – FORD AND LINCOLN U.S. RETAIL AND LEASE* Repossessions (000) Severity 3.27% Repo. 3.02% Ratio 3.01% $9,900 2.79% 199 2.41% $8,300 200 2.30% 2.30% $7,400 $7,400 165 1.94% 1.89% $7,000 $6,600 $6,900 $6,100 $6,300 109 94 82 81 74 64 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200
Slide 15: Lease Residual Performance -- Ford and Lincoln U.S.
LEASE RESIDUAL PERFORMANCE -- FORD AND LINCOLN U.S.* Lease Return Volume (000) Auction Values (At Q4 2010 Mix) 24-Month 36-Month 39-Month / Other $20,495 24-Month 44 46 39 $19,595 $19,445 36 13 $18,840 16 $18,530 $18,335 33 9 30 36-Month 1 12 17 20 16 16 $15,815 $15,855 19 $15,355 $15,230 $15,350 11
Slide 16: Ford Credit Funding
FORD CREDIT FUNDING • Completed $25 billion of funding in 2010 − $17 billion of funding in the public asset backed and term debt markets − $8 billion of private securitization funding • Continued to execute our funding at longer tenors and improved spreads resulting from: − Improved credit profiles
Slide 17: Ford Credit Funding Strategy
FORD CREDIT FUNDING STRATEGY Funding of Managed Receivables (Bils.) $118 $2 $12 $95 Ford Interest Advantage $83 $80-85 Asset-Backed Commercial $4 $5 ~$5 Paper $6 $61 $7 $6-7 Term Asset-Backed Securities $47 $37 $37-40 Term Debt and Other $56 $44 $39 $35-38 Equity $11 $11 $10 $9-10 $24 $17 $15 $12-15
Slide 18: Ford Credit Term Funding Plan
FORD CREDIT TERM FUNDING PLAN 2008 2009 2010 2011 Actual Actual Actual Forecast (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) Public Transactions Unsecured $ 2 $ 5 $ 6 $ 6- 8 Securitizations 11 15 11 12 - 16 Total Public $13 $20 $17 $19 - 24 $25 Private Transactions* $29 $11 $ 8 $ 4 - 8 * Includes private term de
Slide 19: Ford Credit Liquidity Programs
FORD CREDIT LIQUIDITY PROGRAMS December 31, 2010 (Bils.) Capacity & $48.9 Committed Capacity = $34.3 billion* Cash**** Securitization $4.2** Cash Committed $6.3*** Excess Capacity Capacity / Liquidity $24.2 Liquidity $14.6 $38.4 $4.2** $9.0 $1.1 $10.4 Unsecured FCAR Conduits / Cash**** Total Credit
Slide 20: 2010 Summary
2010 SUMMARY* Ford (Total Company) • Full Year pre-tax operating profit, excluding special items, was $8.3 billion, an $8.3 billion improvement from a year ago • Full Year net income attributable to Ford of $6.6 billion • Year end Automotive gross cash was $20.5 billion and Automotive liquidity was
Slide 21: Safe Harbor
SAFE HARBOR Statements included or incorporated by reference herein may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based on expectations, forecasts, and assumptions by our management and involve a
Slide 22: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 23: 2010 Financial Results
TOTAL COMPANY 2010 FINANCIAL RESULTS Fourth Quarter Full Year B / (W) B / (W) 2010 2009 2010 2009 (Mils.) (Mils.) (Mils.) (Mils.) Income / (Loss) Pre-tax results (excl. special items) $ 1,293 $ (322) $ 8,300 $ 8,262 Special items* (1,013) (306) (1,151) (3,712) Pre-tax results (incl. special items) $
Slide 24: Calculation of Earnings Per Share
TOTAL COMPANY CALCULATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE Fourth Quarter 2010 Full Year 2010 After-Tax After-Tax Net Income Oper. Net Income Oper. Attributable Excl. Special Attributable Excl. Special to Ford Items* to Ford Items* After-Tax Results (Mils.) After-tax results $ 190 $ 1,201 $ 6,561 $ 7,578 Effec
Slide 25: Income / (Loss) from Continuing Operations
TOTAL COMPANY INCOME / (LOSS) FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS Fourth Quarter Full Year 2009 2010 2009 2010 (Mils.) (Mils.) (Mils.) (Mils.) North America $ 611 $ 670 $ (639) $ 5,409 South America 369 281 765 1,010 Europe 253 (51) (144) 182 Asia Pacific Africa 16 23 (86) 189 Volvo (40) - (662) - Other Auto
Slide 26: Revenue Reconciliation to GAAP
TOTAL COMPANY REVENUE RECONCILIATION TO GAAP Fourth Quarter Full Year 2009 2010 2009 2010 (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) North America $ 15.6 $ 17.2 $ 49.7 $ 64.4 South America 2.6 2.8 7.9 9.9 Europe 8.2 8.1 28.3 29.5 Asia Pacific Africa 1.7 2.2 5.6 7.4 Subtotal (excl. Volvo) $ 28.1 $ 30.3 $ 91.5 $
Slide 27: Wholesales
TOTAL COMPANY WHOLESALES* Fourth Quarter Full Year 2009 2010 2009 2010 (000) (000) (000) (000) North America 617 615 1,927 2,413 South America 131 142 443 489 Europe** 432 397 1,568 1,573 Asia Pacific Africa*** 168 235 604 838 Subtotal (excl. Volvo) 1,348 1,389 4,542 5,313 Volvo 100 - 324 - Total Au
Slide 28: Gross Cash Reconciliation to GAAP
AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR GROSS CASH RECONCILIATION TO GAAP Dec. 31, Sep. 30, Dec. 31, 2009 2010 2010 (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) Cash and cash equivalents $ 9.7 $ 9.0 $ 6.3 Marketable securities* 15.2 14.9 14.2 Total cash and marketable securities $ 24.9 $ 23.9 $ 20.5 Securities in transit** - (0.1) - Gross ca
Slide 29: Operating-Related Cash Flows Reconciliation to GAAP
AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR OPERATING-RELATED CASH FLOWS RECONCILIATION TO GAAP Fourth Quarter Full Year 2009 2010 2009 2010 (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) Cash flows from operating activities of continuing operations* $ 3.9 $ 1.8 $ 2.9 $ 6.4 Items included in operating-related cash flows Capital expenditure
Slide 30: Automotive Debt
AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR AUTOMOTIVE DEBT Dec. 31, Mar. 31, June 30, Sep. 30, Dec. 31, 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) (Bils.) U.S. Debt Unsecured notes $ 5.5 $ 5.5 $ 5.2 $ 5.2 $ 5.2 Unsecured convertible notes 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.7 Total unsecured notes $ 8.1 $ 8.1 $ 7.8 $ 7.8 $ 5.9
Slide 31: Ford Credit Operating Highlights
FORD CREDIT OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS Fourth Quarter Full Year Shares 2009 2010 2009 2010 United States Financing share -- Ford Lincoln* Retail installment and lease 28% 32% 29% 32% Wholesale 80 81 79 81 Europe Financing share -- Ford Retail installment and lease 31% 31% 28% 26% Wholesale 99 99 99 99 Con
Slide 32: Ford Credit Charge-offs and Loss-to-Receivables Ratio
FORD CREDIT CHARGE-OFFS AND LOSS-TO-RECEIVABLES RATIO Fourth Quarter Full Year 2009 2010 2009 2010 Charge-offs -- On-Balance Sheet (Mils.) Retail installment and lease $ 215 $ 104 $ 989 $ 416 Wholesale 21 (6) 94 (5) Other 2 3 12 4 Total charge-offs -- on-balance sheet $ 238 $ 101 $ 1,095 $ 415 Total
Slide 33: Ford Credit Net Finance Receivables and Operating Leases
FORD CREDIT NET FINANCE RECEIVABLES AND OPERATING LEASES Dec. 31, Dec. 31, 2009 2010 (Bils.) (Bils.) Receivables -- On-Balance Sheet Retail installment $ 56.3 $ 49.7 Wholesale 22.4 22.0 Other finance receivables 2.4 2.3 Unearned interest supplements (1.9) (1.9) Allowance for credit losses (1.3) (0.8
Slide 34: Debt Ratings -- Ford and Ford Credit
DEBT RATINGS -- FORD AND FORD CREDIT S&P Moody’s Fitch DBRS Issuer Ratings Ford Motor B+ Ba2* BB- BB (low) Ford Credit B+ Ba2 BB- BB Senior Long-Term Unsecured Ford Motor B Ba3 B B Ford Credit B+ Ba2 BB- BB FCE Bank plc BB- Ba2 BB- NR Short-Term Unsecured Ford Credit NR NP B R-4 Secured Funding Ford
Slide 35: Ford Credit Key Metric Definitions
FORD CREDIT KEY METRIC DEFINITIONS In evaluating Ford Credit’s financial performance, Ford Credit management uses financial measures based on GAAP, as well as financial measures that include adjustments from GAAP; these measures are defined below. Information about the impact of on-balance sheet sec
Slide 36: Ford Credit Ratio Definitions
FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR FORD CREDIT RATIO DEFINITIONS In addition to evaluating Ford Credit’s financial performance on a GAAP financial statement basis, Ford Credit management also uses other criteria, some of which were previously disclosed in this presentation and are defined below: Charge-offs
Slide 37: Ford Credit Reconciliations of Managed Leverage to Financial Statement Leverage
FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR FORD CREDIT RECONCILIATIONS OF MANAGED LEVERAGE TO FINANCIAL STATEMENT LEVERAGE Dec. 31, Dec. 31, 2009 2010 (Bils.) (Bils.) Leverage Calculation Total Debt* $ 96.3 $ 82.9 Securitized Off-Balance Sheet Receivables Outstanding 0.1 - Retained Interest in Securitized Off-Balanc
Slide 38: Liquidity Profile of Ford Credit's Balance Sheet
LIQUIDITY PROFILE OF FORD CREDIT’S BALANCE SHEET Cumulative Maturities -- As of December 31, 2010 (Bils.) Assets * Debt ** $97 $90 $81 $83 $69 $64 $61 $47 *** 2011 2012 2013 2014 & beyond Memo: Unsecured Long-term debt maturities (Bils.) $9.1 $6.8 $5.3 $12.7 * Includes finance receivables net of une
Ford Motor Company — Debt Investor Presentation (January 2011) on 6ix