T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. · NASDAQ:TROW
T. Rowe Price — 2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing
14 slides from T. Rowe Price's conference presentation, Nov 18, 2015
Slide 1: Global Economic Overview
2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist November 18, 2015
Slide 2: Global Economic Outlook: Summary
Global Economic Outlook: Summary Environment Growth has steadied in advanced economies, anchored by U.S. and Europe; emerging market/developing economies are generally slowing, driven by China and large commodity producers Core inflation in advanced economies is broadly below central banks’ targ
Slide 3: Post-Crisis, Slower Growth Everywhere
Post-Crisis, Slower Growth Everywhere As of October 6, 2015 12 Real GDP: annual average 11 2003-07 10 2010-14 9 2015 2016-20 8 Percent Change 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 World Advanced U.S. Euro area EM/Developing China Economies Economies Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database (October 2015), Haver Analy
Slide 4: Proactive U.S. Policy Response Firmed Foundation for Recovery
Proactive U.S. Policy Response Firmed Foundation for Recovery As of September 30, 2015 FISCAL STIMULUS OFFSET BROAD RECOVERY INTACT PRIVATE DELEVERAGING AMID GLOBAL SLOWDOWN 180 120 600 Employment 1,500 Credit to Private Nonfinancial Sector (L) Manufacturing and Mining (L) Credit to General Governme
Slide 5: Reactive Euro Area Policy Response
Reactive Euro Area Policy Response As of June 30, 2015 PATCHY PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH STABILIZING, BUT DELEVERAGING ON A BROADER BASE 180 120 8 20 Credit to Private Nonfinancial Sector (L) Real GDP Growth (L) Credit to General Government (R) 6 # of Countries Growing (R) 18 170 4 16 Percent Change, Yea
Slide 6: Rest of Advanced Economies: Crosswinds Amid China Slowdown
Rest of Advanced Economies: Crosswinds Amid China Slowdown As of October 6, 2015 STIFF HEADWIND FOR POSITIVE CYCLICAL COMMODITY EXPORTERS MOMENTUM ELSEWHERE 0.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 Percent of Potential GDP Percent of Potential GDP -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -1.0 -1.2 -1.0 -1.4 Output Gap Output Gap -1.6 2014 -1.5
Slide 7: Below-Target Inflation Across Advanced Economies
Below-Target Inflation Across Advanced Economies As of September 30, 2015 CONSUMER INFLATION EXCLUDING FOOD AND ENERGY 4 U.S.* Euro area Japan 3 United Kingdom Canada Percent Change, Year Ago 2 1 0 -1 -2 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of
Slide 8: Advanced Economy Monetary Policy: To Zero—and Beyond!
Advanced Economy Monetary Policy: To Zero—and Beyond! As of September 30, 2015 NEGATIVE POLICY RATES QUANTITATIVE EASING TO GAINING CURRENCY PERSIST THROUGH 2016 6 80 Euro area—Deposit Facility Central Bank Assets Switzerland—3-Month LIBOR Target 5 70 United States Sweden—Repo Rate Denmark—CD Rate E
Slide 9: China: Tough Rebalancing Act, Even as Growth Slows
China: Tough Rebalancing Act, Even as Growth Slows As of September 30, 2015 INVESTMENT NOW A HEADWIND AN EPIC CREDIT AND FOR CHINA GROWTH* INVESTMENT BINGE 35 15 48 225 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (L) 14 46 Debt of Private Nonfinancial Sectors (R) 30 13 200 Percent Change, Year Ago Percent Change,
Slide 10: Broader EM—It Depends
Broader EM—It Depends As of June 30, 2015 VULNERABILITY AMONG RESILIENCE AMONG MORE COMMODITY PRODUCERS, DIVERSIFIED, REFORM-MINDED REFORM LAGGARDS 15 15 Russia—Real GDP India—Real GDP Mexico—Real GDP Brazil—Real GDP 10 10 Percent Change, Year Ago Percent Change, Year Ago 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -15 -10 '
Slide 11: EM Inflation: Significant Divergence
EM Inflation: Significant Divergence As of September 30, 2015 TWO-SIDED STRUGGLE TO MEET CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES POLICY MANDATES 14 10 EM/Developing Economies Western Hemisphere Western Hemisphere 9 Europe 12 Europe Asia Asia 8 Africa 10 7 Number of Countries Percent Change, Year Ago 6 8 5 6 4 4 3 2
Slide 12: EM Monetary Policy: Substantial Divergence
EM Monetary Policy: Substantial Divergence As of October 23, 2015 CROSSCURRENTS AMONG EM …WITH EASING DOMINANT CENTRAL BANKS… 60 # of Central Banks 0.4 # of Actions 0.2 50 Cumulative Change, Percent 0 40 -0.2 -0.4 30 -0.6 20 -0.8 -1 10 PPP Weighted Average -1.2 16 central banks raising rates 19 cent
Slide 13: Important Information
Important Information This material has been prepared for informational purposes only. The views contained herein are those of the presenter as of the date of the presentation and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates. Information a
Slide 14: Thank You
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