Athabasca Oil Corporation · TSX:ATH
Athabasca Oil — FY2023 Earnings Presentation
31 slides from Athabasca Oil's earnings presentation, Feb 29, 2024
Slide 1: Athabasca Oil Corporation 2023 Year-End Results
ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION FOCUSED | EXECUTING | DELIVERING FEBRUARY 29, 2024 – 2023 YEAR-END RESULTS
Slide 2: Corporate Snapshot
CORPORATE SNAPSHOT ~35,000 BOE/D / 98% LIQUIDS / ~5% ANNUAL BASE DECLINE ATHABASCA ASSETS CAPITALIZATION THERMAL OIL THERMAL OIL Dover ~300,000 gross acres o Predictable, low decline projects West Basic Shares (ATH‐TSX) 572MM o Efficient brownfield SAGD development Hangingstone Market Cap. ($4.75/sh
Slide 3: Why Own Athabasca
WHY OWN ATHABASCA TOP TIER, LONG LIFE MANAGING FOR ASSET BASE SHAREHOLDER RETURNS • ~1.2 billion boe 2P reserves; ~1 billion bbl cont. resource • >$1 Billion Free Cash Flow (2024‐26) • Top‐tier Thermal Assets with regulatory approval in • Top Tier CFPS Growth; Return 100% of Free Cash Flow place for
Slide 4: 2023 Year-End Results
2023 YEAR-END RESULTS 34,490 boe/d (95% Liquids) $295MM FFO & $155MM FCF $140MM Capital Achieved Guidance of 34,500 boe/d Strong Cash Flow Metrics Low Sustaining Capital $159MM Return of Capital ~$430MM Liquidity ~$130MM Net Cash 44MM shares at $3.58/sh average price ~$345MM Cash + $85MM Credit Avai
Slide 5: Differentiated Long-Life Reserves
DIFFERENTIATED LONG-LIFE RESERVES 2023 RESERVE OVERVIEW 2P RESERVES BY ASSET (MMBOE) o Deep resource inventory 167 • ~1.2 billion boe 2P reserves; ~100 year reserve life • ~1 billion bbl contingent resource 351 • 113 of ~500 gross estimated Duvernay locations booked 697 o Significant intrinsic value
Slide 6: Exposure to a Bullish Heavy Oil Thesis
EXPOSURE TO A BULLISH HEAVY OIL THESIS WCS HEAVY DIFFERENTIALS (US$) AOC ACTUAL FORECAST $‐ CANADIAN HEAVY DIFFERENTIALS $(5) o Transient headwinds in the rearview mirror $(10) o Tailwinds expected $(15) • Trans Mountain Expansion (+590mbbl/d H1 2024) $(20) TMX • New global heavy refining capacity (
Slide 7: Robust Free Cash Flow Profile
ROBUST FREE CASH FLOW PROFILE NET PRODUCTION (BOE/D)1 BUSINESS OUTLOOK 3‐year CAGR o Thermal Oil assets with low base decline ~7% production ~15% production per share • Low annual sustaining capital of ~$125MM o Duvernay Energy enhances growth • Self‐funded & independent capital allocation framework
Slide 8: Return of Capital Strategy
RETURN OF CAPITAL STRATEGY 2023 FULLY DILUTED SHARES 2023 SHAREHOLDER RETURNS ~8.5% o $158MM share repurchases (April – December) reduction year end 2023 • 44MM common shares at $3.58/sh avg. price o Exceeded commitment to return >75% of Excess Cash Flow • 94% of ECF returned to shareholders o Fully
Slide 9: Thermal Oil – Asset Overview
» pT ae THERMAL OIL - ASSET OVERVIEW
Slide 10: Thermal Oil Division
THERMAL OIL DIVISION PREDICTABLE, LOW DECLINE HIGHLIGHTS THERMAL PROPERTIES 100% Working Interest Fort McMurray ~32,000 bbl/d Current Production AOC Hangingstone 2024e Capital $135MM Expenditures Enbridge 404MMbbl & Gross Reserves Hangingstone Cheecham 1,216MMbbl (Proved & 2P) Surmont ~35 years & Re
Slide 11: Leismer – Overview
LEISMER – OVERVIEW TOP TIER OIL SANDS PROJECT DEVELOPMENT MAP o Long reserve life; ~80 year Reserve Life Index Pad 10 • 697MMbbl 2P reserves; 384MMbbl Best Est. Contingent resource o Excellent reservoir • ~3x long‐term steam oil ratio Pad 8 South 4 well pairs 2024 ACTIVITY (~$105MM) Pad 4 Redrills 3
Slide 12: Leismer – Compelling Economics
LEISMER – COMPELLING ECONOMICS FINANCIAL & ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS ILLUSTRATIVE SUSTAINING PAD ECONOMICS o Project underpins corporate cash flow and torque to oil L8 Mid Capital (lease edge) $MM $48 o Low pre‐payout Crown royalties of 5‐9% (Slide 23) Plateau Rate per project bbl/d 6,000 o Compelling inv
Slide 13: Hangingstone – Overview
HANGINGSTONE – OVERVIEW DEVELOPMENT MAP PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS o Long reserve life; ~65 year Reserve Life Index • 167 MMbbl 2P reserves o Improved SOR due to the field wide NCG co‐injection • ~3.5x 2023 average o Improved cost structure • Truck‐in facility, reduced transportation obligations 2024 ACTIVI
Slide 14: Duvernay Energy Corporation
DUVERNAY ENERGY CORPORATION
Slide 15: Duvernay Energy – Corporate Snapshot
DUVERNAY ENERGY – CORPORATE SNAPSHOT CREATION OF NEW PRIVATE COMPANY DUVERNAY ENERGY ASSETS o Athabasca and Cenovus combine Duvernay assets Halo Energy • Athabasca to operate Duvernay Energy (“DEC”) GMT Exploration o Unparalleled exposure to Kaybob Duvernay oil window Hitic Energy o Debt‐free entity
Slide 16: Duvernay Energy – Strategic Positioning
DUVERNAY ENERGY – STRATEGIC POSITIONING PRIVATE DUVERNAY LONG TERM GROWTH COMPANY STRATEGY • Athabasca 70% Equity Interest; Cenovus 30% Interest • Self‐funded development plan with growth to ~25,000 boe/d (75% Liquids) in late 2020s • AOC and DEC positioned as two separate companies with independent
Slide 17: Kaybob Duvernay >1,000 Industry Wells
KAYBOB DUVERNAY >1,000 INDUSTRY WELLS 2010‐2014 HISTORICAL SPUDS BY OPERATOR ~240 WELLS 150 Athabasca/Murphy Crescent Point 125 Chevron/KUFPEC Kiwetinohk & PetroChina Whitecap 100 75 2015‐16 ~500 WELLS CTD 50 25 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2017‐18 ~750 WEL
Slide 18: Kaybob Duvernay – Evolving Well Design
KAYBOB DUVERNAY – EVOLVING WELL DESIGN LATERAL LENGTH LATERAL LENGTH BY YEAR o Industry trend of increasing lateral length in resource plays o Recent Kaybob Duvernay laterals between 3,500 – 4,500m o DEC targeting ~4,000m to optimize land usage and improve capital efficiencies Source: McDaniel & Ass
Slide 19: Duvernay Energy – Development Plans
DUVERNAY ENERGY – DEVELOPMENT PLANS KAYBOB EAST ILLUSTRATIVE ECONOMICS 2024 ACTIVITY 4,000M LATERAL & 1,000LB/FT (US$85 WTI) o $82MM capital budget (gross) 2‐WELL 4+ MULTI PAD WELL PAD Capital (DCET) per well $MM $14 $10 o 12 gross wells (7.1 net wells) IP365 boe/d 618 618 o 100% WI activity EUR mbo
Slide 20: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 21: Management Team
MANAGEMENT TEAM o President and Chief Executive Officer since 2015; 12 Years at Athabasca Rob Broen, P.Eng. o Over 30 years of exploration and production experience including 18 years with Talisman Energy with roles as President & Chief Executive President, Talisman Energy USA Inc. and Senior Vice P
Slide 22: Athabasca – Capitalization & Hedging
ATHABASCA – CAPITALIZATION & HEDGING SENIOR SECOND LIEN NOTES CAPITAL STRUCTURE o US$157MM Notes (S&P BB‐ issue rating) • US$350MM issued October 2021 @ 9.75%; due Q4 2026 • Retired ~US$193MM since inception using Free Cash Flow ~$2,700MM redemption feature and proactive open market purchases Market
Slide 23: Athabasca – Valuable Tax Pools
ATHABASCA – VALUABLE TAX POOLS TAX POOL SUMMARY ILLUSTRATIVE TAX POOL VALUATION (NPV10) $250MM annual deduction ~$320MM ~$0.55/sh $500MM annual deduction ~$450MM ~$0.80/sh ~$2.8B $750MM annual deduction ~$500MM ~$0.90/sh Fully Maximized ~$560MM ~$1.05/sh ~$2.3B Tax pool valuations are based on Decem
Slide 24: Thermal Oil – Crown Royalty Advantage
THERMAL OIL – CROWN ROYALTY ADVANTAGE CROWN ROYALTY OVERVIEW OIL SANDS ROYALTY RATES o Royalty structure depends on whether a project is in 25‐40% Royalty on Gross Revenue less Opex & Capex pre‐payout or post‐payout phase o Pre‐payout advantage designed to support the recovery of the initial investm
Slide 25: Duvernay Energy – Kaybob Activity Map
DUVERNAY ENERGY – KAYBOB ACTIVITY MAP APL Oil & Gas Bounty CNRL Cenovus Chevron Crescent Point Cygnet Enercapita GMT HWN Halo Hammerhead (CPG) Hitic Kiwetinohk Oil Paramount Window PetroChina Sinopec Spartan Delta Whitecap Liquids Rich Yoho Gas Window Duvernay Hz Wells DEC 30% JV ASSETS Duvernay Lic
Slide 26: Duvernay Energy – Infrastructure
DUVERNAY ENERGY – INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE ADVANTAGE o Operated strategic infrastructure o Underutilized capacity with flexibility for future expansions o Oil infrastructure directly connected to the Pembina Peace liquids system o Gas infrastructure dually connected to Pembina Gas Infrastructur
Slide 27: ESG – Commitment to Responsibility
ESG – COMMITMENT TO RESPONSIBILITY ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH) 2023 ESG Report available on our website https://www.atha.com/esg.html 26
Slide 28: ESG – Integrated Sustainability
ESG – INTEGRATED SUSTAINABILITY TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW CARBON CAPTURE – AOC’S LOW‐CARBON BARREL o Entropy Inc. (Entropy) modular carbon capture technology (CCS) • Project to be sanctioned once government fiscal and regulatory policy for CCS projects are fully in place o Sequestration into regional disp
Slide 29: Reader Advisory
READER ADVISORY Forward Looking Statements This Presentation contains forward‐looking information that involves various risks, uncertainties and other factors. Within this Reader Advisory and Forward Looking Statements, references to the “Company” means Athabasca and Duvernay Energy, as and where ap
Slide 30: Reader Advisory Cont'd
READER ADVISORY CONT’D Reserves Information The McDaniel Report was prepared using the assumptions and methodology guidelines outlined in the COGE Handbook and in accordance with National Instrument 51‐101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities, effective December 31, 2023. There are num
Slide 31: Reader Advisory Cont'd
READER ADVISORY CONT’D Production This Presentation also makes reference to Athabasca's forecasted total daily average Thermal Oil production of 32,000 ‐ 33,000 bbl/d for 2024. Athabasca expects that 100% of that production will be comprised of bitumen. Duvernay Energy’s forecasted total daily avera