Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS

Mosaic Company (the) — The Mosaic Company — Investor Presentation (April 2015)

27 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s investor presentation, Apr 9, 2015

  1. Slide 1: The Mosaic Company

    The Mosaic Company April 9-10, 2015 1

  2. Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement

    Safe Harbor Statement Click to edit Master title style This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as

  3. Slide 3: Investment Thesis

    Investment Thesis Click to edit Master title style • In this cyclical industry, the positive secular trends continue. • Long-term value creation is predicated on effective capital deployment. • Capital deployment near the trough of the cycle maximizes value creation: – Depressed investment values –

  4. Slide 4: Why Now?

    Why Now? 4

  5. Slide 5: Near-term Grain and Oilseed Stocks

    Near-term Grain and Oilseed Stocks Million Tonnes World Grain & Oilseed Stocks Stocks to Use 700 29% Source: USDA and Mosaic 650 623 27% 607 600 580 585 25% 570 551 550 540 23% 514 524 495 500 21% 470 463 450 438 19% 426 408 400 17% 350 15% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F USDA Mosa

  6. Slide 6: Crop Nutrient Affordability Index

    Crop Nutrient Affordability Index Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index 1.75 More Affordable 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: Weekly Price Publications, Affordability Metric Average CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic 6

  7. Slide 7: Improving Phosphate Outlook

    Improving Phosphate Outlook (Million Tonnes) MMT Global Phosphoric Acid Supply Op Rate P2O5 (Million Tonnes) 60 90% MMT Global Phosphoric Acid Capacity P2O5 Source: CRU. January 2015. 60 50 85% 59 1.0 1.9 40 80% 58 1.5 57 30 75% 56 1.9 55 20 70% 54 57.5 53 55.0 10 65% 52 51 0 60% Source: CRU, Januar

  8. Slide 8: Relatively Stable Potash Outlook

    Relatively Stable Potash Outlook Global Potash Capacity, Production and Operating Rate MMT KCl Op Rate 10 0 10 0%  Positive demand prospects Source: Company Reports, Fertecon, CRU and Mosaic 90 95 %  Generally stable operating rate 80 90 % forecasts 70 85 % − Significant production increases 60 80

  9. Slide 9: Why Mosaic?

    Why Mosaic? 9

  10. Slide 10: Distribution Strength

    Distribution Strength Click to edit Master title style 10

  11. Slide 11: Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position

    Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position Top 10 Phosphate Producers in 2013 OCP Mosaic PotashCorp PhosAgro Yuntianhua Vale Guizhou Kailin Group Finished Phosphate Production GCT Phophoric Acid Sales Guizhou Wengfu Group Eurochem 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Million Nutrient Tonnes Based on 2013 production M os

  12. Slide 12: Potash: Scale and Improving Cost Position

    Potash: Scale and Improving Cost Position Top 10 Potash Producers in 2013 US$/Tonne 2014 MOP Industry Cost Curve fob Port 300 Uralkali Source: CRU and Mosaic 275 Mosaic 250 PotashCorp 225 Belaruskali 200 K+ S 175 Israel Chemical 150 Qinghai Salt Lake Brine costs 125 Agrium 100 APC 75 Vale 50 0.0 2.0

  13. Slide 13: Innovation, Beyond Products

    Innovation, Beyond Products

  14. Slide 14: Capital Management Priorities

    Capital Management Priorities Transformed Balance Sheet: Return  Returned $3.2B in 2014  Repurchased 18% of outstanding Grow Business $47 per shares since the split-off Share  Committed to maintaining rating Sustain Assets & Dividend  Liquidity buffer of 2.5 billion  Leverage of 1.5x to 2.0x Ma

  15. Slide 15: Consistent Strategy; Consistent Execution

    Consistent Strategy; Consistent Execution + = 15

  16. Slide 16: Pulling The Right Levers

    Pulling The Right Levers Volume x Margin = Value Grow through: Grow by optimizing: • Brownfield Potash Expansions • Operations • MicroEssentials® • Production Mix Expansion • Strategic investments: • Product Mix • CF Phosphates • Ma’aden • ADM 16

  17. Slide 17: Phosphates: Investing for Growth

    Phosphates: Investing for Growth Phosphate Gross Margin Impact ($ in millions) $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 +56% Raw Materials Ma’aden $1,200 MicroEssentials® $1,100 CF Industries $1,000 Phosphates $900 $937 $1,466 $800 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and unce

  18. Slide 18: Potash: Investing for Growth

    Potash: Investing for Growth Potash Gross Margin Impact ($ in millions) $1,100 $1,050 +17% $1,000 $1,076 Volume $950 Growth $900 $923 $850 $800 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Opportunity to Reduce Brine Spending After 2018 18 * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including thos

  19. Slide 19: International Distribution: Investing in Growth

    International Distribution: Investing in Growth International Distribution Gross Margin ($ in millions) $280 $260 $240 $220 +74% $200 ADM Distribution $180 Tonnes Incremental MicroEssentials® $160 & Volume Growth $140 $120 $147 $256 $100 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F * Assumptions in Appendix. Subjec

  20. Slide 20: Meaningful Cash Flow After Dividends

    Meaningful Cash Flow After Dividends ($ in millions) $1,200 $1,000 $1,139 $800 161% $1,025 $600 $400 $680 $552 $200 $437 $0 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Projected Cash Flow (After Dividends) 20 * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor St

  21. Slide 21: Smart Capital Deployment

    Smart Capital Deployment Investment for Shareholder Growth Returns Capital Stewardship

  22. Slide 22: Appendix

    Appendix 22

  23. Slide 23: Appendix: Assumptions

    Appendix: Assumptions Phosphates:  Ma’aden JV contribution embedded in gross margin, actual reporting is as an equity investment under U.S. GAAP.  ADM business includes an incremental, 2 million tonnes of blended product plus synergies.  Raw material savings result of increased NH3 manufacturing

  24. Slide 24: Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation

    Appendix: Non-GAAP Reconciliation CY2014 Cash Flow from Operations Reconciliation Adjusted Cash flow from operations (Non-GAAP) $1,726 Changes in working capital 300 Loss on write-down of Carlsbad 125 Unrealized loss on derivatives 35 Change in value of share repurchase agreement 60 Amortization of

  25. Slide 25: Tabular Representation of Data From Analyst Day

    Tabular Representation of Data From Analyst Day 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Cash Flow from Operations $1,726(a) $2,285 $2,387 $2,594 $2,633 Capex ($906) ($1,204) ($1,415) ($1,129) ($1,034) Dividends ($383) ($401) ($420) ($440) ($461) FCF Less Dividends $437 $680 $552 $1,025 $1,138 (a) adjusted, rec

  26. Slide 26: Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region

    Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (February 2015) Oct Oct Feb Feb Source: CRU and Mosaic. Million Tonnes Low High Low High Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding. DAP/MAP/TSP 2013R 2014E 2015F 2015F 2015F 2015F Comments Large but flat shipments in 2014. Forecast for 2015 China 21.5

  27. Slide 27: Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region

    Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (February, 2015) Oct Oct Feb Feb Source: CRU and Mosaic. Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding. Muriate of Potash Low High Low High Million Tonnes (KCl) 2013R 2014E 2015F 2015F 2015F 2015F Comments Shipments surged 2.8 mmt last year (+1.0 mmt product

The Mosaic Company — Investor Presentation (April 2015) on 6ix