Umeme Ltd. · NSEKE:UMME
Umeme — FY2015 Earnings Presentation
16 slides from Umeme's earnings presentation, Mar 22, 2016
Slide 1: FY15 Results Investor Presentation
FY15 Results Investor Presentation 22 March 2016
Slide 2: Safety: Zero network related fatalities in 2015
Safety: Zero network related fatalities in 2015 No. 50 47 Network related fatalities 45 Non-network related fatalities (illegal) 39 40 36 35 35 32 30 30 28 25 21 20 17 16 15 10 10 15 7 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2
Slide 3: Investing in service & growth
Investing in service & growth Capital investment (cumulative) US$m 450 407 400 US$87m completed in 2015 350 321 300 Unrecovered investment base 224 250 US$309m 166 200 130 150 102 80 100 52 50 29 6 11 - 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Sample completed projects in 2015 Load Growth Pre-payment Metering
Slide 4: Customer & sales growth
Customer & sales growth Customer numbers +22% Sales (GWh) ('000) 143k new customers in 2015 900 Pre-paid > post-paid GWh +8% 794 800 2,600 2,458 Post-paid 2,400 700 651 2,277 Pre-paid 574 2,118 600 2,200 513 415 458 2,000 1,937 500 405 1,735 400 1,800 1,627 300 1,600 200 1,400 379 100 1,200 - 1,000
Slide 5: Regulatory targets
Regulatory targets Energy losses Revenue collection % 32 % 30.0 Energy losses ↓ by 105 30 1.8 percentage 98.9 100.3 99.1 27.3 100 98.2 28 26.1 points 26 94.0 24.3 95 95.1 24 90 22 21.3 19.5 85 20 18 80 16 75 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Operating costs Agreed regulator
Slide 6: Financial performance
Financial performance Financial statement summary Profit lines (Ushs) Ushs bn Ushs bn, US$ m 2015 2014* Growth 450 400 Gross profit Summary income statement 350 EBITDA Revenue Ushs 1,161 978 +19% 300 PAT US$ 358 373 -4% Cost of Sales Ushs (743) (659) +13% 250 US$ (229) (252) -9% 200 Gross Profit Ush
Slide 7: Trading update
Trading update Market cap US$265m at Ushs 550 share price 850 850 TOP 20 SHAREHOLDERS (FEB 2016) % Share price (Ushs) 750 750 1 NATIONAL SOCIAL SECURITY FUND 15.7% 2 UMEME HOLDINGS LIMITED & NOMINEES 14.3% 650 USE 650 3 INVESTEC FUNDS 9.5% 550 NSE 550 4 KIMBERLITE FRONTIER AFRICA FUND 5.5% 450 450 5
Slide 8: 2016 Capex Projects – Ushs 270 billion
2016 Capex Projects – Ushs 270 billion Focus for FY 2016 • New Moniko substation & integrating lines • GETFiT Generation Projects • Automated Meter Reading • Prepayment Metering • Conversion of 80k post- paid customers • 150k new connections • Prepayment for Gov’t 3 Phase Installations • Supply reli
Slide 9: Generation Pipeline
Generation Pipeline Strong Generation Pipeline +900 MW MW 2,000 Generation outlook – Installed Capacity Karuma hydro 1,800 1,600 1,400 Isimba hydro 1,200 1,000 Bujagali 800 hydro 600 Namanve & Kiira Kakira hydro 400 Nalubale 200 - Pre-2000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Slide 10: Recent appointments
Recent appointments Marie Nassiwa Martins Grace Semakula Chief Financial Officer Investor Relations Manager Marie has been appointed the Grace Semakula (CFA) joins Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Umeme from the National Social reporting to the Managing Security Fund (NSSF) where he Director in Novemb
Slide 11: Summary
Summary • Safety Performance • Doubled the customer connection rate • Delivery on regulatory targets • Customer service and technology • Long term sustainability of the sector Focus for FY 2016 • Safety • Technology driving customer service • Capital investments • People • Readying for long term sec
Slide 12: Appendices
Appendices • Appendix 1: Uganda’s macroeconomic outlook • Appendix 2: Uganda power sector • Appendix 3: Generation overview • Appendix 4: Tariff analysis 12
Slide 13: Appendix 1: Uganda's macroeconomic outlook
Appendix 1: Uganda’s macroeconomic outlook Positive outlook for economic growth “Real GDP growth is forecast at 7% 4.6% in 2016, supported by high 6.4% Real GDP growth forecast 6.2% government spending but held 6% 5.5% back by tight lending conditions 5.1% 5.0% and sluggish private sector 4.7% 4.8
Slide 14: Appendix 2: Uganda power sector
Appendix 2: Uganda power sector • Uganda’s electricity sector was liberalised in 1999, supported by World Bank • Sector unbundled into generation, transmission and distribution to foster transparency & investment • Single buyer model L L L Other IPPs (hydro / thermal) Generation Transmission Distrib
Slide 15: Appendix 3: Generation overview
Appendix 3: Generation overview Peak demand c.530MW Energy supply mix (Installed capacity) Average Monthly Dispatch Mini-hydro, 52MW, 8% Cogeneration, 33MW, 5% Large Hydro Thermal 84% 2% Co-Generation Large-hydro, Thermal, 6% 450MW, 71% 100MW, 16% Mini-Hydro 8% Source: Umeme, UETCL, MEMD 15
Slide 16: Appendix 4: Tariff analysis
Appendix 4: Tariff analysis USD/KWh 6 Real Distribution price 6 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5 Umeme distribution price is <30% of end-user tariff 4.4 5 4.1 4 4 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30 Regional end-user tariffs (Jan 2016) 24 24 25 20 20 20 19 Uganda 16 17 17 17 Uganda’s tariffs are competitive 16 16 U