Suncor Energy Inc. · TSX:SU
Suncor Energy — Investor Presentation (April 2016)
32 slides from Suncor Energy's investor presentation, April 2016
Slide 1: Suncor Investor Information, Published April 2016
Slide 2: Suncor investment thesis
Suncor investment thesis Growth from inflight projects Cash generation vs 23 global peers? Production‘ increase mbpd 850 $130 | Ceiovtan operations* $110 Hl Free cash flow‘ (US$/boe) 6% = Brent US$ 750 planned $90 CAGR?/share 70 CAGR?/share $50 550 2 4 2 $30 3 450 i $10 2am ans san 2012 2013 2014 20
Slide 3: Suncor value proposition
Suncor value proposition Capital discipline *rigorous capital allocation process * competitive, sustainable, history of growing dividends * opportunistic share buy backs Operational excellence * optimizing the base business * disciplined cost management * focus on safety, reliability and sustainabil
Slide 4: Strong production growth through the end of the decade
Strong production growth through the end of the decade Suncor’s production growth forecast’ (mbpd) Hebron 800 E&P" 700 Syncrude 600 500 Fort Hills we Base Oil Sands Firebag aoe MacKay 200 Base Mine 100 Major Oil Sands Turnarounds® 0 Guidance mid-point Planned Planned Planned 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Slide 5: Investing through the price cycle
Investing through the price cycle Le $7B WTI @ 33.50 US$ Tone $1.2B credit $6B $6.8°B Other growth? $5B mee ey Cash & Capitalized bho ini interest ie $0.88 ecules Cash (B/S) ie Planned $4B capital" $221M Ag $1.1B Divestment® $450 M = TT $1.0-1.5B - eEOpPe2 © fo) ills $3B $0.6B eal & Hebron Cash cana
Slide 6: An industry leader in cash flow generation — Levered to oil price
An industry leader in cash flow generation — Levered to oil price Track record of top cash flow rankings Significant CFOPs upside potential Rankings based on 23 Global Peers? Benchmarked off Q1 2016 $682M CFOPs and 33.90 US$ realized Brent pricing, 0.73 CS/USS, $11.75 NYH crack spread? $120 == Cash
Slide 7: Focused on sustainable cost reductions
Focused on sustainable cost reductions Operating, selling and general expenses C$ billions C$/bbl Oil Sands cash operating costs? $~1B ~34% ~60% Reduction Controllable 33.80 27.85 $~500M 24.25 ial | 2014 2015 Target 20161 2013 2014 #2015 Q1 2016 Base (Ex of COs) Driving down costs Productivity: Work
Slide 8: Financial strength in a challenging economic environment
Financial strength in a challenging economic environment f Conservative debt metrics Manageable debt profile ~*~ net debt to CFOPS' i ; until Suncor has to refinance LT debt 2 * 5x Meine 2 YEAlS frst significant maturity in 2018 oy total debt to capitalization? O/ of total LT debt due over coming de
Slide 9: Returning cash to shareholders
Returning cash to shareholders Historical dividend growth Top quartile in global peer group? Annual dividend per share Five year dividend growth (Q1 2011 — Q1 2016) a00% 190% 1.14 0.73 100% 1 = ae 2016" 2012 2013 2014 2015 rd rr 29¢ quarterly dividend per share’ ~3% dividend yield" as at March 31, 2
Slide 10: Market access strategy for inland oil production
Market access strategy for inland oil production Suncor has approximately 700 mbpd of near-term access to globally priced markets! re See oe Gra. —_— ~~ tf + Suncor refinery capacity ) or Suncor rail loading capacity J ~~ \ \ \ Cerne aN Pipeline . Current total pipeline capacity? = Gathering lines T
Slide 11: Refining & Marketing — the value of integration
11 Refining & Marketing — the value of integration 1 10 R&M net earnings’ US$/bbl of capacity 5 ° 2011 Suncor Peers? High Average Low 2012 2013 Refinery feedstock Percent of refining capacity BB % inland 2012 2013 % Offshore 20% 2014 2014 om % Suncor 2015 2015 r Crude 2016 Q1 1, 2,3, 4,5 See Slide N
Slide 12: Oil Sands production growth by 2019
Oil Sands production exceeds 700 mbpd by 20191 Debottlenecks, expansions and growth projects expected to raise total Oil Sands production from 463 mbpd (2015) up to 700mbpd. Firebag + 23 mbpd debottleneck completed in Q4 2015 + Capacity?: 203 mbpd bitumen Base Mine Extraction + Extraction debottlene
Slide 13: Fort Hills progressing on plan
13 Fort Hills progressing on plan 50.8% 91 mbpa $6.5B 55% 5000 21M+ PFT Suncor working interest production capacity net to Suncor capital cost estimate’ net to Suncor from project sanction to first oil construction complete as at March 31, 2016 work force on site as at March 31, 2016 construction ho
Slide 14: Suncor's acquisition of additional Syncrude working interest
Suncor’s acquisition of additional Syncrude working interest cs Synerude Mackay River ~ Millennium & Steepbank Mine = Voyageur South = ie i properties & Syncrude properties Suncor & other JV Firebag rs March 21-016 a $2.6 B assumed Debt! April 120: tel ansaction ~136 M shares issued for COS 4 “— ho
Slide 15: Syncrude performance
Syncrude performance De 11 3 mbpd Q1 2016 production (SU WI) 12% Suncor WI up to February 5 48.74% Suncor WI from February 6 ~83% — go ~76% ‘ioati ae ~ 91 % Q1 2016 Syncrude utilization ~10% realization of peak production rates early stages of a multi year plan to achieve >90% continuous reliability
Slide 16: Technology development portfolio
Technology development portfolio" ® In Situ Mining and Extraction Refining and Upgrading 16 Reduce GHG emissions intensity Reduce costs & improve profitability Reduce tailings/ water / land footprint Surface process (lean facility development) Enhanced SAGD recovery processes (steam + additives) Ste
Slide 17: Achieving operational excellence through continuous improvement
Achieving operational excellence through continuous improvement Cutting inefficiencies, variation and complexity to sustainably improve performance Operational = a Example: Improved mining reliability into upgrader Excellence i P 9 y Pg Reliabili Tonnes lost per month due to spear eliability unplann
Slide 18: Track record of leadership on addressing climate change
Track record of leadership on addressing climate change Published first GRI' First response to CDP? Introduction of seven- compliant Report investor report followed by Call fora CEO participation Call for an economy- point action plan On Sustainability water report carbon levy in EcoFiscal Commissio
Slide 19: Appendix
19 Appendix SuNcoR )
Slide 20: Canada's leading integrated energy company
Canada’s leading integrated energy company Oil Sands ) Fort Hits (+) Fretag MacKay Syncrude River @) > . © e ) Base Plant & Millennium Fort @ McMurray Edmonton Calgary enver Commerce City © Head office @ Regiond office Houlial (+) Operated (+) Non-operated (+) Proposed © Refining capacity ie are sca
Slide 21: 2016 Capital and production guidance
2016 Capital and production guidance’ nn Upstream® Downstream Corporate Total 2016 Capital? Growth Capital? $ millions Percent 5,250 — 5,600 65% 700 — 800 5% 50 — 100 5% $6,000 - $6,500 55% 2016 Planned maintenance for Suncor operated assets’ Upstream Timing U2 Q2 Terra Nova Q2 U1 Q3 MacKay River Q3
Slide 22: Acquisition and divestment history
Acquisition (x) and divestment ($) history A 22 HE WTluss/bb! Petro-Canada BB NYH 3-2-1 US$/bbI Valero Commerce City Conoco Commerce City refinery refinery Petro-Canada Bi AEcoussGj Petro-Canada Non-core UK offshore Fort Hills, 10% additional WI Canadian Oil Sands Murphy Syncrude WI Pioneer retail n
Slide 23: Comparing typical attributes of North American oil plays
23 Comparing typical attributes of North American oil plays! ME tS Fort Hills Tightoil » Offshore e e e 50 e years 6 Illustrative annual cash flow profile based off peak production at Fort Hills of 91 mbpd (Suncor WI)? Tight Oil SAGD Mining Offshore Initial Capital Low Medium High High Reinvestment
Slide 24: Significant technology development focus
24 Significant technology development focus Peasiti ty: sects ponvienle prove 4 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 See Slide Notes and Advisories. AHS® Commercial technology® @ NCG Co-Injection® @ rr Mining & Extraction Upgrading & Refining Suncor )
Slide 25: High quality mining, in situ and upgrading oil sands portfolio
High quality mining, in situ and upgrading oil sands portfolio’ Base Plant 350,000 bpd capacity Suncor working interest 100% 1,662 mmbbls 2P reserves —_— a Firebag 203,000 bpd capacity Suncor working interest 100% 2,661 mmbbls 2P reserves MacKay River ~ 38,000 bpd capacity Suncor working interest 10
Slide 26: Offshore oil projects with ~470 million barrels of 2P reserves
26 Terra Nova Suncor Energy operated Suncor working interest 37.675% 44.4 mmboe 2P reserves (SU WI) White Rose Husky Energy operated Suncor working interest 27.5% 28.1 mmboe 2P reserves (SU WI) Hebron ExxonMobil operated Suncor working interest 21%* First oil expected in late 2017 31.6 mboepd planne
Slide 27: Canada's largest refining & marketing business
Canada’s largest refining & marketing business’ Edmonton Refinery 142,000 bpd capacity 100% oil sands feedstock Sarnia Refinery 85,000 bpd capacity ~75% oil sands feedstock Montreal Refinery 137,000 bpd capacity Rail offloading capacity of 30-40 mbpd Receiving crude volume from Line 9 as of December
Slide 28: Advisories
Advisories Forward-Looking Statements — This presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation (collect
Slide 29: Slide Notes
Slide Notes yn Slide 2. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Slide 4- (1) 29 Production excludes North America onshore, Libya and Syria for all years including 2019 planned. Production estimate may vary materially from actual production in the future. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Compound an
Slide 30: Slide Notes (continued)
Slide Notes (continued) Slide 9 (1) Assumes an expected 2016 quarterly dividend of $0.29/share. All dividends are at the discretion of Suncor’'s Board of Directors. See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (2) Global peers in alphabetical order, not necessarily as they appear in the chart:
Slide 31: Slide Notes (continued)
34 Slide Notes (continued) LT Slide 21 (1) (2) (3) (4) (6) (7) Slide 22. (1) Slide 23. (1) (2) Slide 24: (1) Full guidance is available at suncor.com/quidance. See Forward-looking Statements of the Advisories. Capital expenditures exclude capitalized interest of $600 million - $700 million. Balance
Slide 32: Investor Relations Contacts
Investor Relations Contacts Vice President IR Manager IR Analyst IR 403 296 6622 403 296 6557 403 296 6639 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Visit us at the Investor Centre on suncor.com 1-800-558-9071 [email protected] R