Voya Financial, Inc. · NYSE:VOYA
Voya Financial — Investor Presentation (June 2024)
35 slides from Voya Financial's investor presentation, June 2024
Slide 1: Voya Global Perspectives: Market. Insights. Opportunities
Voya Global Perspectives Market. Insights. Opportunities . June 2024 Voya Global Perspectives® 20230113-2669564-8472926
Slide 2: Advancing Earnings Drive the Market
Advancing Earnings Drive the Market Corporate earnings growth is a barometer for the health of the global economy. 100% 5,000 Earnings growth changed to positive 85% Earnings growth changed to negative 4,500 70% 4,000 S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 Index (RHS) S&P 500 Price 55% 3,500 8.2 40% Q2 2024 3,0
Slide 3: Broadening Manufacturing
Broadening Manufacturing Global Manufacturing PMIs U.S. Industrial Production Index Level Index Level Expansionary (>50) China Euro Contractionary (<50) U.S. Recession Source: Institute of Supply Management, FactSet. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an indicator of economic activity in the ma
Slide 4: Consumer as Game Changer
Consumer as Game Changer At about 70% of gross domestic product (GDP), the U.S. consumer is a game changer. $ Billions per month U.S. Retail Sales Source: FactSet. U.S. retail sales as of 6/30/2024. Voya Global Perspectives® 4 20230113-2669564-8472926
Slide 5: Diversification
Diversification The U.S. has been the place to be, but global diversification is an attractive strategy in an uncertain future. 3 5 10 15 20 Index Q2 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 years years years years years Equity S&P 500 15.3 26.3 (18.1) 28.7 18.
Slide 6: Europe
Europe Over the last 20 Years, Europe and other international developed equities have lagged U.S. S&P 500 Growth of $ MSCI EAFE Bloomberg US Aggregate Bloomberg Global Agg Data as of 6/30/2024. The S&P 500 Index covers 500 industrial, utility, transportation and financial companies of the U.S. market
Slide 7: The Fed
The Fed Fed Funds Target Rate Percent (%) Average (2.6) Source: FactSet, Fed Funds Target Rate, data as of 6/30/2024. Average Fed Funds Rate is average since 1988. FAIT = Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (effected in August 2020). Voya Global Perspectives® 7 20230113-2669564-8472926
Slide 8: U.S. Export, Import Growth
U.S. Export, Import Growth (YoY % Change) U.S. trade is highly dependent on global economic growth. Recession Percent (%) Source: FactSet. Data as of 5/31/2024. Voya Global Perspectives® 8 20230113-2669564-8472926
Slide 9: Housing
Housing S&P Case Shiller Housing Index Case-Shiller % (LHS) 1-Year Case-Shiller % change Index Level Case-Shiller Level (RHS) Source: FactSet, S&P Case-Shiller as of 4/30/2024. Voya Global Perspectives® 9 20230113-2669564-8472926
Slide 10: Inflation
Inflation Core CPI Y/Y Percent (%) Headline CPI Y/Y Core PCE Y/Y Source: FactSet, PCE as of 5/31/2024; CPI as of 6/30/2024 Voya Global Perspectives® 10 20230113-2669564-8472926
Slide 11: Jobs
Jobs The unemployment rate has slowly improved in line with economic growth. New Weekly Claims (in Millions) Unemployment Rate Recession Unemployment Rate (RH) Initial Unemployment Claims (LH) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FactSet. Data as of 6/30/2024. Voya Global Perspectives® 11 20230113-26
Slide 12: Dow Jones Industrials (price only — 100 years)
Dow Jones Industrials (price only — 100 years) It is not unusual for stocks to have prolonged periods of volatile returns. Great Recession 2007-2009 2022 Inflation Q1 2020 Tech Wreck Global Reaganomics 2000-2002 Pandemic Log Great Depression OPEC Oil Crisis Cuban Missile Inflation-Volker Fed Crisis
Slide 13: Index Total Returns
Index Total Returns Index Q2 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years Broad Market Dow Industrial 4.8 16.2 (6.9) 20.9 9.7 25.3 (3.5) 28.1 16.5 0.2 10.0 29.7 10.2 8.4 14.1 22.7 21.7 6.4 10.3 11.3 S&P 500 15.3 26.3 (18.1) 28.7 18.4 31.5
Slide 14: The Fed Model
The Fed Model Stock and bond comparison translated into comparable valuations. Forward Earnings Yield (NTM) 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yield Percent (%) EPS Yield 4.71% = P/E* of 21.2 T-Yield 4.37% = P/E* of 22.9 Data as of 6/30/2024. * P/E is Price/Earnings Note: Earnings yield is the inverse of the pri
Slide 15: U.S. Consumer Confidence
U.S. Consumer Confidence Present Situation Index Level Expectations Source: FactSet; data as of 6/30/2024 Voya Global Perspectives® 15 20230113-2669564-8472926
Slide 16: Performance by Market Capitalization
Performance by Market Capitalization Mid-cap stocks generally have grown faster than large caps since 2005 and growth over value. Russell 1000 Growth Index Mid Cap Growth of $ (%) Index Price Small Cap Russell 1000 Value Index Large Cap Data as of 6/30/2024. Large-cap companies are typically firms w
Slide 17: Global Central Bank Balance Sheets
Global Central Bank Balance Sheets The Fed and ECB are reducing their balance sheets, while the BoJ is holding steady. Fed Balance Sheet ($) ECB Balance Sheet (€) BoJ Balance Sheet (¥) Assets in Local Currency - Millions 7537 7231 6522 Source: FactSet, Voya Investment Management, as of 6/30/2024. Fe
Slide 18: Equity Volatility (VIX)
Equity Volatility (VIX) Volatility tends to spike when investors get complacent after long periods of low volatility. Lehman Crisis Coronavirus U.S. Credit 12/31/07 = 22.5 Euro Crisis Downgrade China Currency 11/20/08 = 80.9 Devaluation 12/31/08 = 40.0 Brexit 06/30/24 = 12.4 Historical Average (19)
Slide 19: Bond and Loan Returns
Bond and Loan Returns Index Q2 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years U.S. Investment Grade Treasury (0.9) 4.1 (12.5) (2.3) 8.0 6.9 0.9 2.3 1.0 0.8 5.1 (2.7) 2.0 9.8 5.9 3.2 (3.3) (0.7) 0.9 Treasury (1-3YR) 1.2 4.3 (3.8) (0.6) 3.2 3.6 1.
Slide 20: Global Yields
Global Yields Investors seeking income may benefit from the higher yield available from global bonds. Current 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields as of 6/30/2024 Source: FactSet. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made in an index. Voya Global Perspectives® 20 2023
Slide 21: Growth and Inflation
Growth and Inflation The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield historically tracks real U.S. GDP and inflation. Inflation – Core CPI Y/Y 10-Year Treasury Yield Real U.S. GDP Growth Percent (%) Source: FactSet. Real U.S. GDP growth as of 5/31/2024, 10-Year Treasury Yield and CPI data as of 6/30/2024. Voya Glob
Slide 22: Credit Spreads and TED Spread
Credit Spreads and TED Spread Credit spreads indicative of risk : low or narrow is good; high or wide is bad. High Yield Spreads TED Spread (Libor – 3-month Treasury) Lehman crisis Basis Points Percent (%) 309 Source: Moody’s, Reuters, Federal Reserve, FactSet, as of 6/30/2024. Note: The TED spread
Slide 23: International Economics
International Economics The “Big 3” dominate the global economy while the U.S. and China are putting distance on Europe. Countries GDP Trade (% of GDP) Demographics Per Capita Exports Population Unemployment Developed Markets USD (Billions) ($1000) 1-Yr Change (Goods Only) (Millions) % Median Age U.
Slide 24: Savings Rates and Household Net Worth
Savings Rates and Household Net Worth Savings Rate Household Net Worth 3 month average, % of disposable income $ trillions Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, FactSet. Savings rate data as of 6/30/2024; household net worth data as of 3/31/2024. Note: BEA implemented a metrics revis
Slide 25: Commodities Prices
Commodities Prices Gold sells for less today in real — inflation-adjusted — terms than in 1980. 2327 COPPER $/oz. $/ton $/ton (LHS) GOLD CRB Index Nominal Price/oz. (RHS) GOLD Real Price/oz. 428 Source: FactSet. Note Gold’s “real price/oz.” is equal to the indexed nominal gold price divided by the C
Slide 26: WTI Crude Oil Prices
WTI Crude Oil Prices Crude oil prices are a good indicator of global demand with too high and too low both ominous. Crude Oil (NYM $/barrel) $81.54 per Barrel 30-year average = $54.98/barrel Source: FactSet. Data as of 6/30/2024. Note: Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate light crud
Slide 27: U.S. Government Debt and Deficit
U.S. Government Debt and Deficit U.S. Government Debt Debt as percentage of GDP $34.9 Trillion % of GDP $ Trillions Source: FactSet. U.S. government debt data as of 6/30/2024, debt level data as of 3/31/2024. Voya Global Perspectives® 27 20230113-2669564-8472926
Slide 28: Corporate Income Tax Rates
Corporate Income Tax Rates Global corporate income taxes have declined since early 2000s, as countries compete for investment. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 Corp. Tax Rate (%) 2023 Corp. Tax Rate (%) Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Data as of 2023. Voya Global Persp
Slide 29: The Folly of Gaming Diversification – Asset Class Returns
The Folly of Gaming Diversification – Asset Class Returns 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 Yr Small Cap U.S. Treas 20+ S&P 500 Small Cap Emerging Mkts Global Bond S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 High Yield S&P 500 S&P 500 41.3 27.5 1.4 26.6 37.3 -1.2 31.5 18.4 28.7 -11.20 26.3 12.9
Slide 30: A Plan for the Inevitable Bear Market beats “Stay the Course”
A Plan for the Inevitable Bear Market beats “Stay the Course” Strategic and tactical allocation over 23 years shows that active management may add value especially in market downturns. 7 23 Yr Annualized Standard Sharpe 6 Return Deviation Ratio Tactical Allocation 8.1% 9.8 0.83 5 Strategic Allocatio
Slide 31: Sequence of Returns Matters
Sequence of Returns Matters It is crucial to de-risk once retirement begins due to possible adverse “Sequence of Returns”. Date Annual Income Annual Returns Portfolio Value Annual Returns Portfolio Value Starting Nest Egg Value $ 1,000,000 $ 1,000,000 Year 1 $ 40,000 -5% 912,000 15% 1,104,000 Year 2
Slide 32: Index Definitions
Index Definitions Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is composed of U.S. securities in Treasury, FTSE NAREIT U.S. Real Estate Index presents comprehensive REIT performance across the Government-Related, Corporate and Securitized sectors that are of investment-grade quality or U.S. economy,
Slide 33: Index Definitions
Index Definitions Asset classes are represented by the following indexes: S&P SmallCap 600 Index covers approximately 3% of the domestic equities Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond Index is a component of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. market and is designed to represent a portfolio of small compan
Slide 34: Index Definitions
Index Definitions MSCI U.S. REIT Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index comprised of Russell Midcap Value Index measures the performance of the mid-cap value equity REITs that generate a majority of their revenue and income from real estate rental and segment of the U.S.
Slide 35: Important Disclosures
Important Disclosures This information is proprietary and cannot be reproduced or distributed. Certain information may be received from sources Voya Investment Management (“Voya IM”) considers reliable; Voya IM does not represent that such information is accurate or complete. Certain statements cont