Danske Bank A/S · OMXCOP:DANSKE
Danske Bank A/S — Debt Investor Presentation (September 2009)
41 slides from Danske Bank A/S's debt investor presentation, September 2009
Slide 1: Navigating through turbulent times
N i i through Navigating h h turbulent b l times i September 2009
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared solely for use at this presentation. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to be bound by the following limitations. This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should no
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda Slide I. Macro Economy 4 II Danske II. D k BBankkOOverview i 10 III. Financial Performance 13 IV. Danske Bank Funding 23 I. State guarantee II. Covered Bonds V. Appendix 34 3
Slide 4: I. Macro Economy
Be a |. Macro Economy —\
Slide 5: The macroeconomic environment
The macroeconomic environment - Very tough first half, but is there a recovery around the corner? Macroeconomic key figures % GDP forecasts for 2009 2009 and 2010 estimates 6 - Denmark relatively resilient GDP Budget balance (% Gross publ. Debt (% Growth (%) of GDP) of GDP) 0 2009 2010 2009 2010 200
Slide 6: Macroeconomic trends
Macroeconomic trends - Under a significant pressure but from a strong starting point GDP growth Current account % y/y % y/y % of GDP % of GDP 4 4 4.5 4.5 GDP growth th 4.0 4.0 Current account 2 2 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 0 0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2 -2 2 -2 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 -4 -4 0.5 0.5 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02
Slide 7: Low unemployment rate
Low unemployment rate - Real wage growth and unemployment two main factors for the economy Unemployment rate Facts on unemployment nemplo ment % % 7 7 • Unemployment is currently 3.8 % - thus 105,100 Danes are out of a job 6 6 Unemployment 5 5 4 4 • The economic slowdown 2001-2003 increased unempl
Slide 8: Rates are going down and so is inflation
Rates are going down and so is inflation - Incentive to borrow The Danish mortgage market has been Inflation is heading down relatively resilient 7,0 7,0 % % 5% 30 year mortgage rate 6,0 6,0 5,0 5,0 percent percent 1 year rate 4,0 4,0 3,0 3,0 2,0 2,0 Central Bank lending rate 1,0 1,0 05 06 07 08 0
Slide 9: Housing market under pressure but...
Housing market under pressure but... - Low unemployment rate & strong LTV position key drivers in assessing risk Property prices Updated: Q2 2009 500,00 Index (1996 = 100) 450,00 Ireland United Kingdom Sweden Houses Flats Finland (ex. Helsinki) Finland (Helsinki) Norway 400,00 Denmark 1.7% 4.2% 350,
Slide 10: II. Danske Bank Overview
II Danske Bank Overview II.
Slide 11: Danske Bank at a glance
Danske Bank at a glance • 5 million customers • 2.2 2 2 million illi active i internet i customers • 786 branches in 9 countries* • 22,822 full-time employees Long term ratings Moody's S&P FITCH Sweden Aa3 A+ A+ Stable Negative Stable Short term ratings Moody's S&P FITCH P-1 A-1 F1+ Covered Bonds ra
Slide 12: Danske Banks market profile
Danske Banks market profile Market leader and challenger positions Market Leader Finland: Branches: 122 Market share: 13% Market Challenger Market Challenger Market rank: 3 Sweden: Norway: % of Group lending: 10% Branches: 56 Branches: 51 Market share: 7% Market Challenger Market share: 6% Market
Slide 13: III. Financial Performance
III Financial Performance III.
Slide 14: Key messages
Key messages - Record-high income, gradually declining impairment charges DKr m Q Quarterly l totall iincome 18,000 Other income (incl. insurance) Net trading income 15,000 • 48% higher total income Y/Y led to net profit of Net fee income Net interest income DKr 0.7bn in H1 2009 12,000 • Impairment
Slide 15: Performance highlights
Performance highlights - High total income, but loan impairment charges, goodwill impairment and state guarantee fees lower the profit Income statement and key figures DKr m H1 2008 H1 2009 Index Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Index N t interest Net i t t iincome 12 901 12,901 14 134 14,134 110 7 227 7,227 6 907 6
Slide 16: Net interest income
Net interest income - Wider lending margins, but hurt by low interest rates and cost of hybrid capital DKr m Quarterly net interest income Net interest income 10% Y/Y Y/Y 10% Q/Q 4% Slightly decreasing lending volumes 7,500 Improved lending margins NII under pressure from competition for dep
Slide 17: Net trading income
Net trading income - Exceptionally high income is the positive side of the crisis Breakdown of net trading income Nett ttrading N di iincome DK DKr 12.4bn 12 4b iin H1 2009 DKr m Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Very strong Q1 2009, some effects Trading activities 2,634 7,534 4,410 sustainable Group Treasu
Slide 18: Expenses
Expenses - Cost management intensified, underlying cost base flat Expenses 19% Y/Y Expense trend and number of employees Increase due to DKr m DK H1 2008 H1 2009 IIndex d Expenses 12,933 15,385 119 goodwill impairment Integration expenses 523 181 35 state guarantee fee Amortisation of intangib
Slide 19: Loan impairment charges
Loan impairment charges - Impairment charges still high, but gradually declining from Q4 08 level DKr m Quarterly loan impairment charges p.a. Impairment p chargesg DKr 6.6bn in Q2 2009 10,000 173 bp Slightly declining impairment charges , although Collective level is still extraordinarily high ow
Slide 20: Loan impairment charges and coverage ratio
Loan impairment charges and coverage ratio - SME is still dominating the impairments Impairments by customer segment NPLs and coverage ratios - SMEs account for most of the Groups impairments DKr bn - Improving coverage ratios % 100% 80 Coverage ratio 100 Personal incl. collateral ** (Right axis) 8
Slide 21: Capital management
Capital management - Improving capital ratios Capital ratios CRD/Basel II Trend in RWA (DKr m) - Strong improvement due to new hybrid capital and reduced assets - Small effect due to the decline in credit quality % Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 11 Core (tier 1) ratio ex hybrid 8.1 7.9 8.2 28 6 Core (tie
Slide 22: Outlook for H2 2009
Outlook for H2 2009 - Difficult market conditions to continue ! Tough oug macroeconomics ac oeco o cs ! Loan impairment charges to remain at a high level ! Robust banking activities ! Widening of lending margins, but pressure on deposits margin ! Uncertainty about trading income ! Intensified cost m
Slide 23: IV. Danske Bank Funding
IV Danske Bank Funding IV.
Slide 24: Well-diversified funding structure
Well-diversified funding structure End-Q2 2009 Equity Central banks 4% 6% Repos Deposits 6% 30% 52% (DKr (DK 1,248bn 1 248b / EUR 168bn) 168b ) deposits and fully match-funded Banks, net 5% Danish mortgage bonds (net) Sh Short-term tt b bonds d DKr DK 240bn 240b / EUR S-T bonds 32bn 10% DKr
Slide 25: Funding Sources
Funding Sources Funding programmes 500 450 400 350 300 DKK bn 250 200 150 100 50 - Utilization end of Q2 2009 Limit end of Q2 2009 25
Slide 26: Funding programmes and utilisation
Funding programmes and utilisation Funding sources Q4 2008 and Q2 2009 25% 31.12.2008 30.06.2009 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Short term funding Long term funding 26
Slide 27: Liquidity and new funding
Liquidity and new funding - Strong improvement as access to intl capital markets has eased 12-month liquidity* New funding in Q2 2009 Moodys Financial Strength by maturity DKr bn DKr bn 30 400 300 End-Q2 2009 200 20 100 End-Q4 2008 End-Q1 2009 0 10 -100 1 month months 2 weeks 3 weeks 1 week months
Slide 28: Danish State Guarantee Schemes
Danish State Guarantee Schemes - Overview Bank Package I (October 2008) Bank Package II (February 2009) • Unconditionally, irrevocable guarantee by the Kingdom of Denmark • Ensures timely payment • AAA ratings, 0% risk weighting and ECB eligibility for -issues • Covers both existing and new unsecur
Slide 29: Re-capitalisation instrument Overview
Re-capitalisation instrument Overview Act on State-Funded Capital Injections (Feb 3. 2009) Danske Banks solution (May 24. 2009) • Package size DKK 100bn • Danske Bank Group DKK 26bn Mortgage institutions 25bn Realkredit Danmark 2bn Banks 75bn Danske Bank A/S 24bn • Repayment condition • Hybrid,
Slide 30: Danske Bank covered bond universe
Danske Bank covered bond universe - Legislation and history behind two business lines Covered Bond issuer since 2007 Specialized regulated mortgage bank Based on a new legislation Provides traditional mortgage loans Loans from f the Groups banking Dates back to 1851 activities in Northern Europe Pa
Slide 31: Covered bonds in Danske Bank
Covered bonds in Danske Bank • Danske Bank Covered Bond Programme was established in December 2007 • The legal framework is the Danish Financial Business Act adapted to CRD in 2007 • Only residential mortgages and public sector loan (and substitution assets) • Issues are done directly on the balance
Slide 32: www.danskebank.com/ir
Danske Bank www.danskebank.com/ir Se
Slide 33: Contacts
Contacts Cato Baldvinsson Tel.: + 45 45 12 84 10 Senior Vice President E-mail: [email protected] Peter Holm Tel.: + 45 45 12 84 85 Senior Vice President E-mail: [email protected] Knud Erik Kristensen Tel.: +45 45 12 84 86 Chief Funding Manager E-mail: E mail: knkr@danskebank [email protected] dk
Slide 34: V. Appendix
Danske Vv. \ppendix
Slide 35: Rating
Rating - Maintained since Q1 2009 Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch Stable outlook Negative outlook Stable outlook Short Long Short Long Short Long P-1 Aaa A-1+ AAA F1+ AAA P2 P-2 Aa1 A1 A-1 AA+ F1 F-1 AA+ P-3 Aa2 A-2 AA F2 AA- Aa3 A-3 AA- F3 AA A1 B A+ B A+ A2 C A C A A3 D A- D A- Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ Baa2
Slide 36: Loan imp. charges geographical breakdown - 1
Loan imp. charges geographical breakdown - 1 - Improving trend in all Nordic countries except Finland DKr m A Accumulated l t d iimpairments i t 97 b bp** DKr m 10,000 3,000 Collective 1,288 Accumulated impairments154 bp* Denmark 2,500 Finland 59% of Groups lending Individual 10% of Groups lendi
Slide 37: Loan imp. charges - geographical breakdown - 2
Loan imp. charges - geographical breakdown - 2 - Ireland and the Baltics account for a large portion of total impairments DKr m DKr m 2,000 5,000 Accumulated impairments 585 bp* Northern Ireland Accumulated impairments 278 bp* Ireland Collective 653 1,600 4,000 3% of Groups lending Collective 148 5
Slide 38: Danske Bank covered bonds
Danske Bank covered bonds - Characteristics for the Cover Pool D Pool notional DKK 33,0 bn (EUR 4,4bn equivalent) Number of Loans 55,052 Residential/ 100 % owner occupied residential properties Commercial WA Indexed LTV 59 % WA Seasoning 32 Months WA Average Remaining 27 Years Term Rate type Float
Slide 39: Danske Bank covered bonds
Danske Bank covered bonds - Characteristics for the Cover Pool D 01.08.2009 Cover Pool Characteristics - Loans by Size Cover Pool - Loans by LTV Cover Pool D Cover Pool D 18% 30% Exposure Exposure 16% 25% 14% 12% 20% 10% 15% 8% 6% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0 - 0,1 0,1 - 0,2 0,2 - 0,3 0,3 - 0,4 0,4 - 0,
Slide 40: Danske Bank covered bonds
Danske Bank covered bonds - Characteristics for the Cover Pool I Pool notional DKK 50,6 bn (EUR 6,8bn equivalent) Number of Loans 65,797 Residential/ 79 % owner occupied residential properties, 21 % housing cooperatives, no Commercial commercial lending WA Indexed LTV 58 % WA Seasoning 30 Months W
Slide 41: Danske Bank covered bonds
Danske Bank covered bonds - Characteristics for the Cover Pool I 01.08.2009 Cover Pool Characteristics - Loans by Size Cover Pool - Loans by LTV Cover Pool I Cover Pool I 30% 20% Exposure Exposure 18% 25% 16% 14% 20 20% 12% 15% 10% 8% 10% 6% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0 - 0,1 0,1 - 0,2 0,2 - 0,3 0,3 - 0,4 0
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