Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — CRU Phosphates 2017
25 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s conference presentation, Mar 14, 2017
Slide 1: The Global Outlook: A View From Florida
Walt Precourt Senior Vice President – Phosphates CRU Phosphates 2017 Tampa, FL March 14, 2017 The Global Outlook: A View From Florida Exhibit 99.1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
2 Safe Harbor This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about our proposed acquisition of the global phosphate and potash operations of Vale S.A. (“Vale”) c
Slide 3: Topics
3 Topics ▪ What’s Driving the Current Rally ▪ A Look Beyond 2017 ▪ The Evolution of the North American Industry ▪ What’s New at Mosaic
Slide 4: What's Driving the Current Rally
4 What’s Driving the Current Rally
Slide 5: The 2017 Rally
5 The 2017 Rally 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 $ Tonne DAP/MAP Prices Published Weekly Spot Prices DAP NOLA MAP BrazilSource: Argus FMB 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 $ Tonne Benchmark DAP Stripping Margin Calculate
Slide 6: Fundamental Drivers
6 Fundamental Drivers ▪ Buying rush in a rising market − Continued positive agronomic and economic demand drivers − Low channel inventories worldwide − Large uncovered commitments for upcoming application season ▪ Decline in Chinese export availability − Peak domestic shipments (part of the demand s
Slide 7: First Half Outlook – Key Features
7 First Half Outlook – Key Features ▪ Momentum expected to continue − More upside than downside risk • Strong shipment prospects • Lower Chinese exports • Little raw materials cost relief • Ongoing shipping delays from Jorf Lasfar • No material production from new capacity
Slide 8: Second Half Outlook – Key Features
8 Second Half Outlook – Key Features ▪ Tilting toward continued tight S/D balance − Several uncertainties, but . . . − Key swing factors at this point look positive • Shipments expected to remain strong in the second half • Chinese exports projected to drop to ~8.0 million tonnes • Raw materials cos
Slide 9: Strong Shipments Prospects
9 Strong Shipments Prospects 67-68 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E17F Global Phosphate ShipmentsMMT Product DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Source: CRU and Mosaic 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E 17F Brazil DAP
Slide 10: Continued Positive Demand Drivers
10 Continued Positive Demand Drivers 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index Affordability Metric Average 2010-15 Source: WeeklyPrice Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.0
Slide 11: Lower Chinese Exports
11 Lower Chinese Exports 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F Mil Tonnes Source: China Customs and Mosaic China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports Actual 2017 Forecast Range 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mil Tonnes Source: China Customs China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports 12-Month Ro
Slide 12: Will the Cost Run-Up Run Out of Gas?
12 Will the Cost Run-Up Run Out of Gas? 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Sulphur $ / LT Ammonia $ / Tonne Weekly Raw Materials Prices c&f Tampa Ammonia Sulphur Source: Argus FMB
Slide 13: 2017 Outlook
13 2017 Outlook Topic of March Issue of Market Mosaic Available at: www.mosaicco.com/resources/market_mosaic.htm
Slide 14: A Look Beyond 2017
14 A Look Beyond 2017
Slide 15: Five-Year Outlook – Key Features
15 Five-Year Outlook – Key Features ▪ A positive demand outlook − Underpinned by constructive long term agricultural fundamentals − Global phosphate demand forecast to increase ~2% per year − More consistent and broad-based growth expected ▪ Few new projects expected after 2018 − Little in the pipel
Slide 16: Positive Demand Outlook
16 Positive Demand Outlook 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16E 17F 21F Global Phosphate Shipments Actual High Forecast Low Forecast Likely Forecast CRU - Jan 2017 MMT DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Source: Mosaic and CRU Phosphate Outlook January 2017 Global Phosphate Shipments Mosaic Scen
Slide 17: Demand Forecasts by Region
17 Demand Forecasts by Region -2.4% -3.7% -2.6% 4.6% 1.4% 2.7% 4.5% 5.4% 5.4% -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 China India Africa Mideast/Other North America Europe/FSU Other Latin Am Brazil Other Asia + Oceania MMT DAP/MAP/TSP (Percentage is CAGR) Change in Phosphate Shipments 2016 vs. 2011 Source: Mosaic and CRU
Slide 18: Supply/Demand Balance
18 Supply/Demand Balance -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 16 17 18 19 20 21 Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Source: CRU and Mosaic Cumulative Change in Capacity by Region 2016-21 China Rest of World Morocco Saudi Arabia -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 16 17 18 19 20 21 Mil
Slide 19: The Evolution of the North American Industry
19 The Evolution of the North American Industry
Slide 20: The Evolution of the North American Industry
20 The Evolution of the North American Industry ▪ A smaller but still large industry today ▪ A less important role in the growing global market ▪ A regional focus on the freight-advantaged Americas ▪ A product focus on innovative premium products ▪ Continuous efforts to enhance productivity/efficien
Slide 21: A Smaller North American Industry
21 A Smaller North American Industry 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 Pct of Total Mil Tonnes P2O5 Source: CRU North America Phosphoric Acid Production Production Share of World Total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 Pct of
Slide 22: The Evolution of the North American Industry
22 The Evolution of the North American Industry Acid Capacity (mmt P2O5) Percent NA Capacity 12 20 12.3 4 12 8.8 5.4 61% 1.9 22% 0.8 9% 0.7 8% 18 21 10.9 Firms: Facilities: Acid Capacity (mmt P2O5): Source: IFA, IFDC and Mosaic
Slide 23: What's New at Mosaic
23 What’s New at Mosaic
Slide 24: A Long List of Exciting Initiatives
24 A Long List of Exciting Initiatives ▪ Completed the integration of the CF phosphate operations ▪ Enhancing efficiencies and optimizing operations ▪ Obtaining permits for our next generation rock mines ▪ Harvesting value from our ADM Brazil acquisition ▪ Ramping up MicroEssentials® capacity at New
Slide 25: Thank You!
Walt Precourt Senior Vice President – Phosphate Operations CRU Phosphates 2017 Tampa, FL March 14, 2017 The Global Outlook: A View From Florida Thank You!