ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna — PKN Orlen — Q1 2016 Earnings Presentation
36 slides from ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Apr 21, 2016
Slide 1: PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 1Q16
PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 1Q16 21 April 2016 #ORLEN1Q16@PKN_ORLEN
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 2
Slide 3: Key highlights 1Q16
Key highlights 1Q16 Value creation Financial strength EBITDA LIFO: PLN 1,9 bn Financial gearing: 22,4% Sales volumes increase by 7% (y/y) Cash flow from operations: PLN 2,9 bn Retail: acquisition of 68 fuel stations in Czech Rep. Dividend for 2015: Management Board recommendation PLN 2,00 per share
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 4
Slide 5: Macro environment in 1Q16 (y/y)
Macro environment in 1Q16 (y/y) Downstream margin decrease Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 ∆ y/y -0,9 USD/bbl Diesel 123 85 60 -51% 15,1 15,5 Gasoline 140 140 143 2% 12,6 12,0 HHO -133 -147 -122 8% 11,7 SN 150
Slide 6: Increase in diesel consumption (y/y)
Increase in diesel consumption (y/y) GDP increase1 Fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)2 Change (%) to respective quarter of the last year mt 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q15 1Q16 1Q15 1Q16 + 6% 3,9 + 5% 3,7 3,3 3,5 3,1 ÷ 3,7 2,68 2,84 0,84 0,88 Poland + 5% 0% 8,38 8,77 1,3 1,6 1,7 2,1 1,5 ÷ 2,0 4,18 4,
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 7
Slide 8: Financial results in 1Q16
Financial results in 1Q16 PLN m 1Q15 4Q15* 1Q16 - 19% Revenues: decrease by (-) 19% (y/y) due to lower crude 20 005 20 087 16 213 oil price limited by sales volumes increase Revenues 0,0 bn EBITDA LIFO: comparable result (y/y) due to positive 1 910 1 866 1 937 effect of lower costs of internal consu
Slide 9: EBITDA LIFO
EBITDA LIFO Segments’ results in 1Q16 Positive impact (y/y) of: PLN m lower costs of internal consumption for energy purposes derived from 301 27 1 937 lower crude oil and natural gas prices 1 755 -146 weakening of PLN against USD by 6% and EUR by 4% non-fuel margin increase in retail offset by nega
Slide 10: Downstream – EBITDA LIFO
Downstream – EBITDA LIFO Maintaining very good result EBITDA LIFO quarterly (without impairments*) + PLN m Lower costs of internal consumption for energy purposes derived from lower crude oil and natural gas prices (y/y) 3 000 2 712 Increase of margins on petrochemical products, mainly on 2 500 poly
Slide 11: Downstream – operational data
Downstream – operational data Higher crude oil throughput by11% and sales by 8% (y/y) Sales volumes Utilization ratio mt % 9 + 8% Refineries 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 ∆ (y/y) 8,1 Płock 87% 94% 86% -1 pp 8 7,9 7,6 7,7 Unipetrol 84% 72% 66% -18 pp 7,5 7,2 7,3 7,3 ORLEN Lietuva 70% 90% 94% 24 pp 6,9 7 6,8 6,6 6,8
Slide 12: Downstream Energy projects realization (industry cogeneration)
Downstream Energy projects realization (industry cogeneration) Strategic assumptions Building a CCGT plant in Wloclawek (463 MWe) Industry cogeneration projects – with the highest profitability / the In 1Q16 successful synchronization of CCGT with the national lowest risk, thanks to guarantee of per
Slide 13: Retail – EBITDA LIFO
Retail – EBITDA LIFO Sales increase by 4% at lower fuel margins (y/y) EBITDA LIFO quarterly (without impairments) PLN m + Sales increase by 4% (y/y) 600 539 451 Market share increase in the Czech Rep. (y/y) 500 441 369 359 379 349 369 Fuel margins increase on the Czech market (y/y) 400 325 282 301 3
Slide 14: Retail – operational data
Retail – operational data Sales increase by 4% (y/y) and further growth of non-fuel offer Sales volumes Number of petrol stations and market shares (by volume) mt #, % 2,5 + 4% 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,5 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 Number of Stop Cafe and Bist
Slide 15: Upstream: Exploration and production projects in Poland
Upstream Exploration and production projects in Poland Poland 1Q16 Acquisition of 2D and 3D seismic data being realized in 2015 has been finished whereas acquisition of 3D seismic data has been started in new areas Drilling works of 2 exploration wells were done in areas belonging to FX Energy Land
Slide 16: Upstream: Production projects in Canada
Upstream Production projects in Canada Canada 1Q16 On January 1, 2016 a merger between ORLEN Upstream Canada Ltd. and Kicking Horse Energy Ltd. acquired in December 2015 took place Drilling of 7 new wells (5,9 net*) has been started, 6 fracking procedures (4,7 net*) were done and 4 wells (3,5 netto*
Slide 17: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 17
Slide 18: Cash flow
Cash flow Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments PLN bn PLN bn 1,8 0,1 2,9 1,9 0,4 -0,9 -1,0 -1,4 EBITDA LIFO effect Working capital Others Net inflow CAPEX Others* Net LIFO change from 1Q16 outflow 1Q16 operations from 1Q16 investments 1Q16 Working capital decrease in 1Q16 by PLN 1,8
Slide 19: Indebtedness
Indebtedness Net debt and gearing Gross debt structure: PLN bn, % Financial gearing, % EUR 51%, PLN 33%, USD 9%, CAD 7% 28,1 Diversified financing: over PLN 4 bn in retail bonds, corporate bonds 28,9 and Eurobonds 23,6 22,4 19,8 Average maturity 4Q19 Investment grade: BBB - with a stable outlook 6,2
Slide 20: CAPEX
CAPEX Planned CAPEX in 2016 (baseline scenario*) Realized CAPEX in 3M16** – split by segment PLN bn, % PLN m 4,8* 126 20 847 72 5,8 Retail 629 Downstream 64% 10% Growth 3,3 5,1 Energy 226 26% Petrochemicals 184 Maintenance Upstream 1,5 Refining 219 and regulatory CAPEX Downstream Retail Upstream Cor
Slide 21: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q16 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2016 21
Slide 22: Market outlook in 2016
Market outlook in 2016 Macroeconomic environment Economy Brent crude oil price – in base case scenario crude oil price is GDP outlook – for Poland: 3,8% in 2016 and in 2017 - NBP expected at comparable level to an average crude oil price from (March 2016) 2015. Factors that may cause crude oil price
Slide 23: Thank You for Your attention
Thank You for Your attention For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] www.orlen.pl
Slide 24: Supporting slides
Agenda Supporting slides 24 24
Slide 25: Results – split by quarters
Results – split by quarters PLN m 1Q15 4Q15* 1Q16 ∆ y/y 3M15 3M16 ∆ Revenues 20 005 20 087 16 213 -19% 20 005 16 213 -19% EBITDA LIFO* 1 910 1 866 1 937 1% 1 910 1 937 1% Effect LIFO -237 -1 108 -937 -295% -237 -937 -295% EBITDA* 1 673 758 1 000 -40% 1 673 1 000 -40% Depreciation -452 -510 -515 -14%
Slide 26: Results – split by segments
Results – split by segments 1Q16 Corporate Downstream Retail Upstream Total PLN m Functions EBITDA LIFO 1 755 301 27 -146 1 937 Effect LIFO -937 - - - -937 EBITDA 818 301 27 -146 1 000 Depretiation -324 -97 -71 -23 -515 EBIT 494 204 -44 -169 485 EBIT LIFO 1 431 204 -44 -169 1 422 1Q15 Corporate Down
Slide 27: EBITDA LIFO – split by segments
EBITDA LIFO – split by segments PLN m 1Q15 4Q15* 1Q16 ∆ y/y 3M15 3M16 ∆ Downstream 1 753 1 656 1 755 0% 1 753 1 755 0% Retail 282 369 301 7% 282 301 7% Upstream 14 7 27 93% 14 27 93% Corporate functions -139 -166 -146 -5% -139 -146 -5% EBITDA LIFO* 1 910 1 866 1 937 1% 1 910 1 937 1% * Data before i
Slide 28: Results - split by companies
Results - split by companies Others and 1Q16 ORLEN consolidation PLN m PKN ORLEN S.A. Unipetrol 2) Lietuva 2) corrections Total Revenues 10 568 2 855 2 629 161 16 213 EBITDA LIFO 1 050 56 322 509 1 937 Effect LIFO1) -876 34 -92 -3 -937 EBITDA 174 90 230 506 1 000 Depreciation -285 -70 -13 -147 -515
Slide 29: ORLEN Lietuva Group
ORLEN Lietuva Group USD m 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 ∆ y/y 3M15 3M16 ∆ Revenues 876 953 663 -24% 876 663 -24% EBITDA LIFO 101 20 82 -19% 101 82 -19% EBITDA 83 25 59 -29% 83 59 -29% EBIT 81 21 55 -32% 81 55 -32% Net result 47 43 51 9% 47 51 9% Sales increase in 1Q16 by 28% (y/y) due to high seaborne sales at sli
Slide 30: UNIPETROL Group
UNIPETROL Group CZK m 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 ∆ y/y 3M15 3M16 ∆ Revenues 23 975 22 956 17 686 -26% 23 975 17 686 -26% EBITDA LIFO 3 111 824 349 -89% 3 111 349 -89% EBITDA 2 897 725 558 -81% 2 897 558 -81% EBIT 2 444 279 121 -95% 2 444 121 -95% Net result 2 003 206 -10 - 2 003 -10 - Higher sales volumes in 1Q
Slide 31: Macro environment in 2Q16
Macro environment in 2Q16 Downstream margin decrease Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 2Q15 1Q16 2Q16* ∆ q/q ∆ y/y -2,7 USD/bbl Diesel 116 60 53 -12% -54% 15,1 15,5 Gasoline 215 143 189 32% -12% 12,6 12,0 11,7 12,4 HHO -147 -1
Slide 32: Macro environment in 2Q16
Macro environment in 2Q16 Refining margin and B/U differential decrease Petrochemical margin decrease Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl Model petrochemical margin, EUR/t differential margin - 2,4 USD/bbl - 61 EUR/t 11,2 11,4 1.113 1,5 1,5 1.035 998 9,2 8,8 960 974 1,7 8,2 8,
Slide 33: Production data
Production data 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 ∆ y/y ∆ q/q 3M15 3M16 ∆ Total crude oil throughput in PKN ORLEN (kt) 6 652 7 776 7 369 11% -5% 6 652 7 369 11% Utilization in PKN ORLEN 82% 88% 84% 2 pp -4 pp 82% 84% 2 pp Refinery in Poland 1 Processed crude (kt) 3 533 3 843 3 486 -1% -9% 3 533 3 486 -1% Utilization 8
Slide 34: Dictionary
Dictionary Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas) Model refining margin = revenues (9
Slide 35: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by PKN ORLEN S.A. (“PKN ORLEN” or “Company”). Neither the Presentation nor any copy hereof may be copied, distributed or delivered directly or indirectly to any person for any purpose without PKN ORLEN’s knowledge and consent. Copying,
Slide 36: Investor Relations contact details
For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] www.orlen.pl