ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna — PKN Orlen — Q3 2012 Earnings Presentation
35 slides from ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Oct 25, 2012
Slide 1: PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 3Q12
PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 3Q12 Jacek Krawiec, CEO Sławomir Jędrzejczyk, CFO 25 October 2012
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 3Q12 highlights Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results in 3Q12 Liquidity Upstream and energy Summary 2
Slide 3: PKN ORLEN - 3Q12 highlights
PKN ORLEN - 3Q12 highlights Financial parameters PLN 1,0 bn operating profit acc. LIFO. Favourable macro environment (y/y): decrease in crude oil price by (-) 3% to 110 USD/bbl. increase in model refining margin and B/U differential by 5,7 USD/bbl to 9,1 USD/bbl. decrease in petrochemical margin by
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda 3Q12 highlights Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results in 3Q12 Liquidity Upstream and energy Summary 4
Slide 5: Favourable macro environment in 3Q12 (y/y)
Favourable macro environment in 3Q12 (y/y) Crude oil price decrease by (-) 3% Impressive increase in refining margin Average Brent Crude Oil price, USD/bbl Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl differential margin - 3 USD/bbl + 5,7 USD/bbl 113 109 119 110 9,1 108 8,9 2,1 0,7 4,6
Slide 6: Lower GDP growth and high prices influence fuel consumption
Lower GDP growth and high prices influence fuel consumption GDP increase1 Fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)2 Change (%) to respective quarter of last year mt 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 3Q11 3Q12 3Q11 3Q12 - 5% 4,1 4,6 3,6 3,30 - 5% 3,12 2,3 1,8-2,2 1,07 1,01 Poland - 1% - 6% 8,84 8,77 2,6 1,7 5,06 1
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda 3Q12 highlights Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results in 3Q12 Liquidity Upstream and energy Summary 7
Slide 8: PLN 31,7 bn of sales revenues – record-high quarter
PLN 31,7 bn of sales revenues – record-high quarter 3Q11 2Q12 3Q12 PLN m 9M11 9M12 Increase of revenues by 10% (y/y) as a result of higher refining products prices + 10% + 15% and weakening of PLN against USD. 28 682 27 955 31 654 76 997 88 856 Revenues Increase of operating profit acc. to LIFO by P
Slide 9: PLN 1,0 bn of operating profit according to LIFO
PLN 1,0 bn of operating profit according to LIFO 3Q11 2Q12 3Q12 change y/y PLN m 9M11 9M12 change 1 392 918 2 010 44% EBITDA 4 872 4 447 -9% 778 375 1 448 86% EBIT, of which: 3 127 2 763 -12% 216 1 233 990 358% EBIT according to LIFO 1 437 2 426 69% 335 -66 1 136 239% Refining 1 873 1 802 -4% -215 6
Slide 10: Stable sales volumes (y/y)
Stable sales volumes (y/y) 3Q11 2Q12 3Q12 kt 9M11 9M12 9,6 mt of total sales volumes in 3Q12 – comparable level (y/y) 0% - 1% 9 626 8 149 9 627 26 293 26 000 Lower refining sales volumes (y/y) on Sales volumes the Polish market due to downward trend in fuel consumption offset by sales volumes increa
Slide 11: High crude oil throughput – comparable level (y/y)
High crude oil throughput – comparable level (y/y) Crude oil throughput Utilisation ratio mt % PKN ORLEN Unipetrol ORLEN Lietuva - 1% 100 97 7,4 7,2 7,4 100 94 94 93 6,7 90 6,4 90 96 90 79 79 79 92 80 74 70 71 57 60 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Fuel yield Comments % Gasoline yie
Slide 12: Agenda
Agenda 3Q12 highlights Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results in 3Q12 Liquidity Upstream and energy Summary 12
Slide 13: Safe level of indebtedness and financial ratios
Safe level of indebtedness and financial ratios Good financial standing Net debt and financial gearing % Financial in PLN bn, % gearing Net debt PLN 5,9 bn and financial gearing 25%. - 3,4 mld Covenant net debt/EBITDA at the level of 1,46. 9,3 7,6 8,2 Net positive FX from debt revaluation amounted t
Slide 14: Good stable cash flows from operations before working capital change
Good stable cash flows from operations before working capital change 3Q11 2Q12 3Q12 change y/y PLN m 9M11 9M12 change Cash flow from operations before 733 783 2 005 1 272 4 251 4 465 214 working capital change 0 -904 0 0 One-off payments (CIT and VAT) 0 -904 -904 347 -871 1 349 1 002 Working capital
Slide 15: Agenda
Agenda 3Q12 highlights Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results in 3Q12 Liquidity Upstream and energy Summary 15
Slide 16: UPSTREAM Conventional and unconventional projects
UPSTREAM Conventional and unconventional projects Unconventional projects (shale gas and tight gas) 8 exploration licenses / 6,75 th km2. Status of projects: 3 vertical wells are finished; 1 horizontal well is in progress. Plan to start up to 3 new drills (including 1 horizontal) till the end of 201
Slide 17: ENERGY New projects and improvement of efficiency of assets held
ENERGY New projects and improvement of efficiency of assets held Building a gas power plant ~500 MWe in Wlocławek Advanced preparation of investment. Block building is planned for 4Q12. Start-up in 4Q15. Power plant sales will be commercially based as well as satisfying Anwil energy and steam needs.
Slide 18: Agenda
Agenda 3Q12 highlights Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results in 3Q12 Liquidity Upstream and energy Summary 18
Slide 19: Summary
Summary 3Q12 highlights PLN 1,0 bn operating profit acc. to LIFO. PLN 31,7 bn of revenues – record-high quarter; increase by 10% (y/y). 9,6 mt sales volumes – maintained at high level (y/y). Safe financial position Net debt PLN 5,9 bn; financial gearing 25%; covenant 1,46. Upgrade in financial ratin
Slide 20: Thank You for Your attention
Thank You for Your attention www.orlen.pl For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] 20
Slide 21: Supporting slides
Agenda Supporting slides 21
Slide 22: Favourable macro environment in refining segment
PKN ORLEN Favourable macro environment in refining segment PLN m PLN + 670 m 1.500 748 205 1.448 -179 1.000 778 -104 500 0 EBIT 3Q11 Inventory valuation Macro Volumes Other EBIT 3Q12 Negative impact of crude oil price changes on inventory valuation (y/y). Positive impact of macro environment exceede
Slide 23: Refining segment: Favorable macro environment at stable sales volumes
Refining segment Favorable macro environment at stable sales volumes PLN, m PLN + 801 m 1.200 106 1.136 866 1.000 -18 800 600 400 335 200 -153 0 EBIT 3Q11 Inventory valuation Macro Volumes Other EBIT 3Q12 Negative impact of crude oil price changes on inventory valuation (y/y) and visible improvement
Slide 24: Retail segment: High sales at better margins
Retail segment High sales at better margins PLN, m PLN +90 m 300 10 9 271 71 0 250 200 181 150 100 50 0 EBIT 3Q11 Fuel margins Volumes Non-fuel sales Other EBIT 3Q12 Maintaining high retail volumes at falling consumption. Gradual retail margins improvement on Polish market at remaining pressure on m
Slide 25: Petrochemical segment
Petrochemical segment Negative impact of maintenance shutdowns and macro environment PLN, m PLN -154 m 450 49 400 367 350 300 -118 250 87 213 200 150 100 -172 50 0 EBIT 3Q11 Inventory valuation Macro Volumes Other EBIT 3Q12 Negative impact of macroeconomic factors as a result of decrease in model pe
Slide 26: Main P&L elements split by key companies in 3Q12
Main P&L elements split by key companies in 3Q12 Others and PKN PKN PKN PKN PKN ORLEN 3) ORLEN Change IFRS, PLN m Unipetrol 3) consolidation ORLEN ORLEN ORLEN ORLEN Change S.A. Lietuva y/y corrections 3Q12 3Q11 9M12 9M11 Revenues 23 375 4 695 7 671 -4 087 31 654 28 682 10% 88 856 76 997 15% EBITDA 9
Slide 27: Operating result split by segments and key companies in 3Q12
Operating result split by segments and key companies in 3Q12 Others and PKN PKN PKN PKN PKN ORLEN 4) ORLEN Change IFRS, PLN m Unipetrol 4) consolidation ORLEN ORLEN ORLEN ORLEN Change S.A. Lietuva y/y corrections 3Q12 3Q11 9M12 9M11 EBIT 680 161 373 234 1 448 778 86% 2 763 3 127 -12% EBIT acc. LIFO
Slide 28: ORLEN Lietuva Group Key elements of the profit and loss account
ORLEN Lietuva Group Key elements of the profit and loss account 1 change 3Q11 2Q12 3Q12 IFRS, USD m 9M11 9M12 change y/y 2 218 1 437 2 323 5% Revenues 6 074 5 691 -6% -5 -56 141 - EBITDA 105 138 31% -24 -68 126 - EBIT 45 93 107% -6 11 85 - EBIT acc. to LIFO 5 83 1560% -38 -86 93 - Net result 22 44 1
Slide 29: UNIPETROL Group Key elements of the profit and loss account
UNIPETROL Group Key elements of the profit and loss account 1 change 3Q11 2Q12 3Q12 IFRS, CZK m 9M11 9M12 change y/y 24 065 27 102 28 438 18% Revenues 73 100 80 989 11% 505 201 1 656 228% EBITDA 2 896 2 576 -11% -230 -437 942 - EBIT 565 454 -20% -228 754 487 - EBIT acc. to LIFO 50 538 976% -128 -598
Slide 30: Macro environment in 4Q12
Macro environment in 4Q12 Crude oil price increase Increase in sum of refining margin and B/U diff Average Brent Crude Oil price, USD/bbl Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl + 3 USD/bbl differential margin + 1,1 USD/bbl 113 109 119 110 113 10,2 108 9,1 8,9 1,4 2,1 0,7 4,6 3,4
Slide 31: Macro environment in 2012
Macro environment in 2012 14 PKN ORLEN Group model refining margin 2011 average 2012 2012 average 2011 12 10 8 6,4 USD/bbl 6 5,3 USD/bbl 4 2,1 USD/bbl 2 0 -2 January February March April May June July August September October November December 5 Brent/Ural differential 2011 average 2012 2012 average
Slide 32: Production data
Production data change change Production 3Q11 2Q12 3Q12 (r/r) (kw/kw) 9M11 9M12 change Total crude oil throughput in PKN ORLEN (tt) 7 418 6 362 7 431 0% 17% 20 606 20 448 -1% 1 Refinery in Poland Processed crude (tt) 3 953 3 836 3 759 -5% -2% 10 734 11 251 5% Utilisation 97% 94% 92% -5 pp -2 pp 90%
Slide 33: Dictionary
Dictionary PKN ORLEN model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input: crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent Crude quotations. Spot market quotations. Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural
Slide 34: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by PKN ORLEN S.A. (“PKN ORLEN” or “Company”). Neither the Presentation nor any copy hereof may be copied, distributed or delivered directly or indirectly to any person for any purpose without PKN ORLEN’s knowledge and consent. Copying,
Slide 35: www.orlen.pl
www.orlen.pl For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] 35