Nairobi Securities Exchange PLC · NSEKE:NSE

Nairobi Securities Exchange — 4th Listed Companies Forum (June 2010)

41 slides from Nairobi Securities Exchange's conference presentation, Jun 30, 2010

  1. Slide 1: The 4th Listed Companies Forum

    THE 4th LISTED COMPANIES FORUM MR. PETER MWANGI CHIEF EXECUTIVE 30th June 2010 1 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  2. Slide 2: Table of Contents

    TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. 2010 MARKET PERFORMANCE YTD 3. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS 4. PROGRESS ON INITIATIVES 2 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  3. Slide 3: Economic Indicators

    ECONOMIC INDICATORS 3 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  4. Slide 4: Economic Indicators: GDP Growth

    ECONOMIC INDICATORS Parameter PROJECTED GDP. GROWTH 2010 Kenya GDP 4.0% •2007: 7.1%; •2008: 1.7% Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) 6% OECD countries 3% 2009 GDP contribution per sector:- Agriculture 22.5% Industry ~16.5% Services ~61% 4 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  5. Slide 5: Economic Indicators: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    ECONOMIC INDICATORS: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) CPI weighting: – Food & Non alcoholic beverages – 36.04%; Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels – 18.3%; Combined – 54.34% Month Geometric Geometric Overall Overall CPI Inflation June-2009 102.1 8.6 July-2009 102.3 8.4 August-2009 102.9 7.3

  6. Slide 6: Inflation

    INFLATION Overall Inflation 10 9 8 nflation in % 7 6 Inflation 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: KNBS 6 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  7. Slide 7: Economic Indicators: Interest Rates

    ECONOMIC INDICATORS Parameter Rate Rate Trend (24 June 2010) (29 March 2010) analysis 91 T-bill rate 3.491 % 5.74% 182 T-bill rate 3.3 % 6.298% Commercial bank 14.48 % 14.98% lending rate Overdraft rate 14.5% 14.25% Average weighted 10.38% 11.44% coupon rate payable on bonds SOURCE: CBK & NSE 7 OFFI

  8. Slide 8: Economic Indicators: Foreign Exchange Rates

    ECONOMIC INDICATORS Foreign Exchange rates FOREIGN DECEMBER JUNE 2010 CURRENCY 2009 US DOLLAR 75.82 81.47 GBP 121.89 122.47 EURO 108.93 100.475 8 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  9. Slide 9: 2010 Market Performance Overview

    2010 MARKET PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW 9 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  10. Slide 10: Equity Market Performance 2008/2009 Comparison

    EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2008/2009 COMPARISON Market Indicator 2009 2010 (YTD) % Change NSE 20 Share Index 3,247.44 4,277.64 31.17% NSE All Share Index (NASI) 71.64 94.09 30.88% Market Capitalization( Kshs. 831.83 1,101.2 Billion) 32.38% Source: NSE • By the close of Q2 2010, the NSE 20 Share Index

  11. Slide 11: Index Performance YTD: NSE Share Index

    INDEX PERFORMANCE YTD NSE 20 SHARE INDEX 4,500.00 4,000.00 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 Mar.09 Apr.09 Jun.09 Aug.09 Oct.09 Mar.10 Apr.10 May.09 May.10 Dec.08 Jan.09 Feb.09 Jul.09 Sep.09 Nov.09 Dec.09 Jan.10 Feb.10 Source: NSE 11 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  12. Slide 12: Index Performance YTD: NSE All Share Index

    INDEX PERFORMANCE YTD NSE ALL SHARE INDEX 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 Mar.09 Jul.09 Sep.09 Mar.10 Dec.08 Jan.09 Feb.09 Apr.09 May.09 Jun.09 Aug.09 Oct.09 Nov.09 Dec.09 Jan.10 Feb.10 Apr.10 May.10 Source: NSE 12 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  13. Slide 13: Equity Market Performance 2008/2009 Comparison

    EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2008/2009 COMPARISON 2010 2009 (23.06.10) Market Indicator (23.06.09) % Change No. of Shares Traded (Kshs. Million) 2,932.73 1,436.7 104.12% Equity Turnover (Kshs. Billion) Source: NSE 35.98 16.447 118.7% •The volume of shares traded is up 104% while equity turnover is up 1

  14. Slide 14: Equity Market Detailed Statistics

    EQUITY MARKET DETAILED STATISTICS 2010 Volume Turnover No. of Deals (Kshs) January 603,905,016 38,544 6,358,023,993 369,757,668 36,776 4,214,875,504 February 8,325,598,475 March 627,000,012 48,784 April 398,532,800 42,918 6,754,886,475 933,527,500 47,320 10,342,437,455 May Annual Total 2,932,722,996

  15. Slide 15: Foreign Investor Trading in Equity YTD

    FOREIGN INVESTOR TRADING IN EQUITY YTD Foreign investor turnover as a percentage of total market turnover has decreased as domestic investor participation increases 90 80 70 % FT/TM 60 50 40 30 20 Dec.08 Jan.09 Feb.09 Mar.09 Apr.09 May.09 Jun.09 Aug.09 Nov.09 Dec.09 Jan.10 Feb.10 Mar.10 Apr.10 May.1

  16. Slide 16: Foreign Investor Trading in Equities YTD

    FOREIGN INVESTOR TRADING IN EQUITIES YTD Purchases versus Sales 4,000 3,500 3,000 Kshs. Millions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Purchase Sales Source: NSE 16 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  17. Slide 17: Foreign Investor Equity Net Flows YTD

    FOREIGN INVESTOR EQUITY NET FLOWS YTD (In Kshs. Million) Total Total Net foreign market Total local In-flow turnover turnover turnover Month Purchases Sales (Kshs.) (TF) (TM) (TL) FT/TM TL/TM May.09 1,175 678 496 1,853 3,088 1,235 60.01% 39.99% Jun.09 1,630 746 884 2,376 4,127 1,751 57.58% 42.42% Ju

  18. Slide 18: Market Liquidity YTD

    MARKET LIQUIDITY YTD 1.20 1.00 0.96 0.80 % 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Apr.09 Jun.09 Aug.09 Oct.09 Apr.10 Dec.08 Jan.09 Feb.09 Mar.09 May.09 Jul.09 Sep.09 Nov.09 Dec.09 Jan.10 Feb.10 Mar.10 May.10 Source: NSE Market liquidity: Equity turnover as a percentage of market capitalization 18 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF E

  19. Slide 19: Bond Market Performance YTD

    BOND MARKET PERFORMANCE YTD Bond Turnover in Kshs. Billion 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Source: NSE 19 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  20. Slide 20: Bond Market Performance YTD

    BOND MARKET PERFORMANCE YTD MONTH TURNOVER (Kshs. Billion) January 2010 26.75 February 2010 41.64 March 2010 46.802 April 2010 23.24 May 2010 37.20 Source: NSE 20 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  21. Slide 21: Bond Market Performance YTD

    BOND MARKET PERFORMANCE YTD ANALYSIS OF MAY 2010 BOND TURNOVER Total Turnover-Government Bonds 36,734,200,000 Total Turnover-Corporate Bonds 470,250,000 Total Market Bond Turnover 37,204,450,000 Total Market number of transactions 563 Source: NSE 21 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  22. Slide 22: Bond Turnover YTD

    BOND TURNOVER YTD Month 2008 2009 2010 January 5,937,900,000 6,643,400,000 26,746,900,000 February 3,212,550,000 6,859,800,000 41,638,700,000 March 14,281,750,000 8,187,600,000 50,411,000,000 April 2,343,700,000 3,816,310,000 23,241,000,000 May 3,037,200,000 11,555,950,000 37,204,450,000 June 4,912,

  23. Slide 23: NSE Bond Yield Curve January – June 2010

    NSE BOND YIELD CURVE JANUARY – JUNE 2010 14.0000 12.0000 10.0000 Jan 8.0000 Feb 6.0000 Mar Apr 4.0000 May 2.0000 0.0000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: NSE Comparison of NSE yield curve from January to May 2010 23 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  24. Slide 24: Composition of GoK Debt

    COMPOSITION OF GOK DEBT Government of Kenya gross domestic debt currently stands at Kshs. 655.5 billion as at 11th June 2010. TYPE OF GoK. SECURITY % of Domestic Kshs. Billion debt Treasury Bills 25.78% Kshs. 169 Treasury bonds 72.3% Kshs. 443.4 Long term stocks 0.1% Kshs. 0.8 Overdraft Kshs. 8.4 Ot

  25. Slide 25: Institutional Holdings of GoK Debt

    INSTITUTIONAL HOLDINGS OF GoK DEBT ORGANISATION % HOLDING OF GoK. BONDS Commercial Banks 58% Pension schemes 20.8% Insurance companies 10.3% Parastatals 6.3% % holdings as at 11th June 2010 25 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  26. Slide 26: Primary Market Interest Rates

    PRIMARY MARKET INTEREST RATES The interest rates in the primary market are on a decreasing trend as indicated by the 91 day and 182 day Treasury bill rates. •The recently auctioned 91 day Treasury Bill oversubscribed by 382%. Amount on offer was Kshs. 2 billion but 81 bids worth Kshs. 7.6 Billion we

  27. Slide 27: Bond Market Activity

    BOND MARKET ACTIVITY The first 25 year bond was issued in the market. The bond, which sought Kshs. 7.5 billion, was oversubscribed by 360.96% with a total of 586 bids worth Kshs. 27.1 billion received. The weighted average rate was 10.458%. The high demand for this instrument coupled with excess liq

  28. Slide 28: Secondary Market Activity: 5 Year Bond Segment

    Issued Value This Week Average Number of in millions Coupon Highest yield Lowest yield Traded Yield Total Value Trades Issue No. (%) (%) (%) (%) (kshs) FXD1/2007/5Yr 2,571.12 11.25 4.4000 3.9000 4.3911 5,600,000 2 FXD2/2007/5Yr 4,575.55 9.50 FXD3/2007/5Yr 8,996.55 9.50 5.0000 4.8000 4.9087 9,200,000

  29. Slide 29: Secondary Market Trading: 10 Year Bond Segment

    Issued Value This Week Average Number of in millions Coupon Highest yield Lowest yield Traded Yield Total Value Trades Issue No. (%) (%) (%) (%) (kshs) FXD2/2003/10Yr 6,352.87 8.50 FXD1/2006/10Yr 3,344.97 14.00 FXD2/2006/10Yr 5,088.33 14.00 6.5000 6.5000 6.5000 1,000,000 1 FXD1/2007/10Yr 9,000.00 10

  30. Slide 30: Secondary Market Trading: 15 Year Bond Segment

    Issued Value This Week Average Number of in millions Coupon Highest yield Lowest yield Traded Yield Total Value Trades Issue No. (%) (%) (%) (%) (kshs) FXD2/2007/15Yr 7,500.00 13.50 9.3500 7.7500 8.5186 1,096,150,000 11 FXD3/2007/15Yr(Re- opened) 16,982.02 12.50 9.0500 8.1750 8.4756 2,944,000,000 23

  31. Slide 31: Entire Performance YTD: Market Turnover

    ENTIRE PERFORMANCE YTD MARKET TURNOVER (Kshs. Billions) 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Jan.09 Feb.09 Mar.09 Apr.09 May.09 Jun.09 Jul.09 Sep.09 Dec.09 Jan.10 Feb.10 Mar.10 Apr.10 May.10 Aug.09 Oct.09 Equity Bond Nov.09 Source: NSE 31 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  32. Slide 32: Comparative Analysis with Other Equity Markets

    COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITH OTHER EQUITY MARKETS 32 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  33. Slide 33: Comparative Analysis with Other Equity Markets

    COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITH OTHER EQUITY MARKETS COUNTRY INDEX % GAIN/LOSS YTD Kenya NSE 20 Share 31 Nigeria NIG 30 Index 26 Egypt EGX 30 4 South Africa Top 40 22.6 Ghana GSE All share 20.34 Morocco MASI 15.10 Uganda USE ALSI 41 33 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  34. Slide 34: Select Counters' Performance: Share Price

    SELECT COUNTERS’ PERFORMANCE:SHARE PRICE COMPANY % CHANGE 1 YEAR Athi River Mining 53.85 Co-operative Bank of 43.06 Kenya Scangroup 43.69 Equity Bank 44.62 Standard Chartered 48.97 Bank East African Portland 62.24 Cement Company Kakuzi 176.11 Kenya Airways 87 Mumias Sugar 111.29 Safaricom 74.24 TPS

  35. Slide 35: Progress on Initiatives

    PROGRESS ON INITIATIVES 35 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  36. Slide 36: OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

    36 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

  37. Slide 37: NSE Investment Challenge

    NSE INVESTMENT CHALLENGE The NSE Investment Challenge is now in its second year This is an edutainment, initiative targeted at students from University and Tertiary Institutions. We currently have 16 Universities and 15 Tertiary Institutions. Objective; To demystify the stock market and encourage a

  38. Slide 38: Progress on Demutualisation

    PROGRESS ON DEMUTUALISATION The NSE held its EGM on March 4 2010 and approved in principle the demutualization process and the proposed initial shareholders of the post demutualized company. The shareholding in the proposed post demutualised company will be as under; •The current Members – 80% •Inve

  39. Slide 39: Progress on Demutualisation: Key Changes

    PROGRESS ON DEMUTUALISATION Key Changes Definition of a Member The definition of the word “Member” has been deleted and replaced with the definition of “Trading Participant” which is as follows: “Trading Participant means a licensee of the Authority with rights to trade at an approved securities exc

  40. Slide 40: Progress on Demutualisation: Board Composition

    PROGRESS ON DEMUTUALISATION Composition of the Board The CMA Act currently provides that the NSE Board of Directors shall comprise of the following: 5 member directors 2 listed company representatives 3 insitutional investor and general public interest representatives The Chief Executive The propose

  41. Slide 41: Thank You, Questions?

    THANK YOU QUESTIONS? 41 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE

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