Swiss Re AG · SIX:SREN
Swiss Re — UBS Investor Conference 2007
14 slides from Swiss Re's conference presentation, Jun 27, 2007
Slide 1: Natural Perils and Insurance
Natural Perils and Insurance UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Quiz Question Which floor in a high rise #1 building should be avoided in an earthquake prone area? 1) First Floor 2) Third Floor 3) Top Floor 4) High rise buildings should be avoided at any cost UBS Investor Co
Slide 2: Natural perils losses – worldwide on the rise
Kobe 1995 UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 3 Natural perils losses – worldwide on the rise Annual insured losses from 1970 to 2006, in USD bn indexed to 2006 UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 4 Source: Swiss Re sigma 2
Slide 3: Increasing values in exposed areas
Quiz Question #2 How large is the insured loss of Hurricane Andrew in 1992? 1) USD 15bn 2) USD 23bn 3) USD 35bn UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 5 Increasing values in exposed areas Ocean Drive, FL, 1926. Ocean Drive, FL, 2000. Population Growth Rates UBS Investor Con
Slide 4: The largest loss potentials; Tapping into capital markets: Non-Life cat bonds outstanding
The largest loss potentials 110 Hurricane 75 Quake US+Carib. California Peak risks: Quake 50 Earthquake or storm Japan In industrialised 35 countries Storm With high insurance 45 Europe density 18 8 Typhoon 20 Japan JER 8 FHCF Daria Northridge 1990 Mireille 1994 1991 Katrina 2005 Insurance los
Slide 5: Economic vs insured loss potentials (examples)
Quiz Question How large is the total economic #3 loss for a 200 year earthquake hitting Tokyo? 1) USD 150bn 2) USD 500bn 3) USD 1‘000bn 4) Unbelievably high UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 9 Economic vs insured loss potentials (examples) Country Scenario Loss potenti
Slide 6: Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 11 Hurricane Katrina UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 12 6
Slide 7: Boat Casinos
Boat Casinos They float… UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 13 Boat Casinos …they sink… UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 14 7
Slide 8: Climate change: Observations
Boat Casinos …they fall apart UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 15 Climate change Observations Annual Northern hemisphere land surface temperature anomaly (deg C) for the period 1850-2005, relative to the average 1961-10. The error range represents +/-2 standard UBS In
Slide 9: Climate change: Predictions
Climate change Predictions UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 17 Source: IPCC 2007, Summary for Policy Makers The next 100 years Increased variability Model results UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 18 Source: Nature 2004 9
Slide 10: Hurricane forecasting skills
Hurricane forecasting skills Year Forecast Observed Forecast Observed # of Storms # of Storms # Hurricanes # Hurricanes 2001 11 10 6 5 2002 11 12 6 4 2003 13 16 7 7 2004 13 15 8 9 2005 14 27 8 14 2006 15 10 9 5 2007 16 ? 9 ? A very recent paper (G. J. Holland, submitted) has demonstrated that curren
Slide 11: Impact of building quality
Impact of building quality UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 21 Residential district in 2050 UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 22 11
Slide 12: Nat Cat modelling: Four elements that determine a cat loss
Nat Cat modelling: Four elements that determine a cat loss Value Hazard Vulnerability Cover conditions distribution L How often / how How well built What exactly is covered ... strong? and protected? where... and how? F Sums insured Example Hurricane Cover limits “Charley” Aug 2004 Deductibles
Slide 13: Storm surge model
Storm surge model Sal. Oppenheim Lounge 28 November 2006 Serge Tröber, Cat Perils Page 25 Simulation of event and damage foot print UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 26 13
Slide 14: Watch where you park your car!
Watch where you park your car! Given an event intensity: How are the insured objects affected? UBS Investor Conference 27 June 2007 Serge Tröber, Swiss Re Page 27 Cautionary note on forward-looking statements Certain statements and illustrations contained herein are forward-looking. These statements