Portland General Electric Co · NYSE:POR

Portland General Electric — Corporate Update (September 2015)

86 slides from Portland General Electric's corporate update, Sep 25, 2015

1. Slide 1: Integrated Resource Plan 2016 Public Meeting #4

   INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2016 Public Meeting #4 Friday, September 25, 2015 © 2015 Portland General Electric. All rights reserved.

2. Slide 2: Welcome: Meeting Logistics

   Welcome: Meeting Logistics September 25, 2015 Slide 2  Local Participants:  DoubleTree facility  Virtual Participants:  Ask questions via ‘chat’ or ‘raise hand’ feature  Meeting will stay open during breaks, but will be muted

3. Slide 3: Welcome: Today's Topics

   Welcome: Today’s Topics September 25, 2015 Slide 3  Welcome and safety moment  Public process  Clean Power Plan update  Climate Study Review  Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) update  Dispatchable Standby Generation (DSG) update  Resource Optimization Model (ROM) update

4. Slide 4: Safety Moment: Sleep

   Safety Moment: Sleep September 25, 2015 Slide 4 Benefits of getting enough sleep 1. Better health 2. Stronger immunity 3. Lower risk of injury 4. Better mood 5. Clearer thinking

5. Slide 5: Public Process Overview

   Public Process Overview

6. Slide 6: 2016 IRP Timeline

   2016 IRP Timeline September 25, 2015 Slide 6 September 25, 2015 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 IRP 1st Public Complete Draft File Final Kick‐off Meeting 2016 IRP 2016 IRP PGE Preparation Public Meetings and PGE Analysis Draft IRP Draft IRP Development Distributi

7. Slide 7: 2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics

   2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics September 25, 2015 Slide 7 Q4 2015 (Tentative)  Future meeting content December 4 Date TBD Meeting #5 Workshop #3 Public Commission (Salem) is tentative, topic • Development • EIM Study suggestions are • Analysis • CPP Demonstration welcome • Portfolios

8. Slide 8: 2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics

   2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics September 25, 2015 Slide 8 Q1 2016 (Tentative) February 10, 2016 Date TBD Date TBD Meeting #6 Workshop #3 Additional Meetings Public Commission (Salem) and Workshops • Results • Development • As Required • Colstrip Portfolios • Portfolios and Futures • V

9. Slide 9: 2016 IRP: Status

   2016 IRP: Status September 25, 2015 Slide 9 Item Status Meetings 6 Planned (3 Complete, 3 Scheduled) Workshops 4 Planned (2 Complete, 2 Scheduled) Feedback Forms 1 Received 2013 IRP Action Plan 5 Actions (OPUC Order No. 14-415) Supply Side In progress (Hydro contracts, portfolios, no major resources

10. Slide 10: 2013 IRP Update

    2013 IRP Update September 25, 2015 Slide 10 Table of Contents: 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2. 2013 ACTION PLAN UPDATE 2.1 SUPPLY-SIDE ACTIONS 2.2 DEMAND-SIDE ACTIONS 2.3 STATUS OF COMMISSION ACKNOWLEDGED ENABLING STUDIES 2.4 STATUS OF ADDITIONAL COMMISSION REQUIREMENTS 3. RESOURCE INPUT UPDATES 3.1 DEMAND

11. Slide 11: Clean Power Plan Update

    Clean Power Plan Update

12. Slide 12: Clean Power Plan - Final Rule

    Clean Power Plan - Final Rule September 25, 2015 Slide 12  On August 3rd, President Obama announced the release of the final Clean Power Plan  Significant changes relative to the proposed rule  Oregon’s target less stringent, Montana’s more stringent Rate Mass State Based Based 871 8,118,654 Oreg

13. Slide 13: Clean Power Plan - BSER

    Clean Power Plan - BSER September 25, 2015 Slide 13  For each interconnection, apply building blocks: 1) Regional specific coal plant efficiency improvements (2.3%-4.3%). 2) CCCT displacement of coal up to a 75% capacity factor. 3) New renewables extrapolated from development history.  BSER for co

14. Slide 14: Clean Power Plan – BSER Coal

    Clean Power Plan – BSER Coal September 25, 2015 Slide 14 & & & ′ • Coal remaining after redispatch and renewables • NGCC changes from baseline credited to numerator and denominator • Proportion of new renewables that displace coal

15. Slide 15: Clean Power Plan – BSER NGCC

    Clean Power Plan – BSER NGCC September 25, 2015 Slide 15 & & • After all building blocks, the emissions and energy from NGCC • Proportion of new renewables that displace remaining NGCC

16. Slide 16: Clean Power Plan – State Goals

    Clean Power Plan – State Goals September 25, 2015 Slide 16  State goals result from the Oregon's Proportion of baseline proportion of Coal and Baseline Generation NGCC generation  Coal BSER = 1305 Lbs/MWh Coal, 19%  NGCC BSER = 771 Lbs/MWh  Oregon’s State Goal:  19% x Coal BSER NGCC, 81% + 81%

17. Slide 17: Clean Power Plan - Carty Update

    Clean Power Plan - Carty Update September 25, 2015 Slide 17  EPA has provided guidance on the applicability of the ‘existing resource’ standard for Carty.  Carty will likely become an existing resource, subject to 111(d).  Impacts to the state rate and mass based target will be explored with EPA

18. Slide 18: Clean Power Plan - State Plan Options

    Clean Power Plan - State Plan Options September 25, 2015 Slide 18 State CO2 Mass State Blended Limits for CO2 Rate Limits State Existing Sources Measures Plan Mass State CO2 Mass Subcategory Limits with New Limits CO2 Rate Limits Sources

19. Slide 19: Clean Power Plant - State Plan Options

    Clean Power Plant - State Plan Options September 25, 2015 Slide 19 Requires enforceable obligations back stopped by EGU compliance State CO2 Mass State Blended Limits for CO2 Rate Limits State Existing Sources Measures Plan Mass State CO2 Mass Subcategory Limits with New Limits CO2 Rate Limits Sourc

20. Slide 20: Clean Power Plan – Compliance Timing

    Clean Power Plan – Compliance Timing September 25, 2015 Slide 20 Timeline for Oregon’s CPP Compliance 1,200 1,000 States File Initial Plan States File Initial Plan States File Final Plan States File Final Plan Final Rule Published Final Rule Published Credit for RE & EE Credit for RE & EE 800 Compli

21. Slide 21: Clean Power Plan - Compliance Options

    Clean Power Plan - Compliance Options September 25, 2015 Slide 21  Plant efficiency improvements  Unit redispatch to lower carbon fuels Gas  Post 2012 new renewable projects  Tucannon qualifies RE &  New nuclear EE  Energy efficiency measures following EM&V Trading  Compliance instrument trad

22. Slide 22: Clean Power Plan – Compliance Trading

    Clean Power Plan – Compliance Trading September 25, 2015 Slide 22 • Emission Reduction Credits • Used within a rate based plan • Created by new carbon free generation ERC • EE creates ERCs after EM&V • NGCC’s create “Gas Shift ERCs” after generating beyond baseline, for steam unit compliance only •

23. Slide 23: OR Compliance Outlook - 2013 IRP Outputs with Zero Carbon Price

    OR Compliance Outlook- 2013 IRP Outputs with Zero Carbon Price September 25, 2015 Slide 23

24. Slide 24: MT Compliance Outlook - 2013 IRP Outputs with Zero Carbon Price

    MT Compliance Outlook- 2013 IRP Outputs with Zero Carbon Price September 25, 2015 Slide 24

25. Slide 25: Clean Power Plan - Modeling

    Clean Power Plan - Modeling September 25, 2015 Slide 25  Increasing complexity to model rate based standards.  Subcategory specific rate standards cannot be modeled to allow intrastate trading between subcategories.  Gas shift ERCs are only created after exceeding baseline generation.

26. Slide 26: Clean Power Plan - Modeling

    Clean Power Plan - Modeling September 25, 2015 Slide 26  2016 IRP will continue to model rate and mass based standards, but likely with more mass based futures and less rate based futures than proposed 4/2/2015.  CPP + CO2 prices modeled  Reflects allowance auctioning  Modeling will include sepa

27. Slide 27: Clean Power Plan – Questions?

    Clean Power Plan – Questions? September 25, 2015 Slide 27 Thank you! Feedback Form:

28. Slide 28: Climate Study Review

    Climate Study Review

29. Slide 29: Climate Study Progress

    Climate Study September 25, 2015 Slide 29  Progress:  Received draft Climate Study Report  Today we will share informative figures  Received draft Climate Study Data  Reviewing methodology

30. Slide 30: Climate Study Report

    Climate Study Report September 25, 2015 Slide 30  Figure 1 ‐ Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in the historical record and for future lower (RCP2.6) and higher (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios (Source: Walsh et al., 2014a)

31. Slide 31: Climate Study Report

    Climate Study Report September 25, 2015 Slide 31  Figure 2 ‐ Warming or cooling influences of all major human‐ induced factors and the only major natural factor (solar) with a long‐term effect on climate in terms of change in radiative forcing in watts per square meter by 2005 relative to 1750. (So

32. Slide 32: Climate Study Report

    Climate Study Report September 25, 2015 Slide 32  Figure 3 ‐ Observed historical and projected future SRES and RCP carbon emissions from 1970 to 2030 (Source: Walsh et al., 2014a) RCP 8.5 RCP – RCP Representative Emission Concentration Scenarios Pathway Modeled for PGE’s SRES – RCP 4.5 System Speci

33. Slide 33: Climate Study Report

    Climate Study Report September 25, 2015 Slide 33  Figure 4 ‐ Observed (1950‐2011) and simulated (1950‐2100) regional mean temperature for selected CMIP5 global models for two emissions scenarios. (Source: Mote et al., 2013)

34. Slide 34: Climate Study Report

    Climate Study Report September 25, 2015 Slide 34  Figure 5 ‐ The classification of PNW watersheds into rain dominant, mixed rain‐snow, and snowmelt dominant and how these watersheds are expected to changes as a result of climate warming based on the SRESA1B emissions scenario (Source: Hamlet et al.

35. Slide 35: Climate Study Report

    Climate Study Report September 25, 2015 Slide 35  Figure 6 ‐ Projected change in monthly flow volume by the 2040s at Estacada (Source: David Rupp, OCCRI) Mean monthly flow volume at Clackamas at River Mill Dam 2040s A1B and B1 projections, hybrid−delta method 400 Historical A1B mean B1 mean Flow vo

36. Slide 36: Climate Study Data

    Climate Study Data September 25, 2015 Slide 36  QA process continuing with OCCRI  Questions?

37. Slide 37: Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) update

    Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) update

38. Slide 38: Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) at PGE

    Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) at PGE Public Meeting #4 September 25, 2015 © 2015 Portland General Electric. All rights reserved.

39. Slide 39: Agenda

    Agenda September 25, 2015 Slide 39  Background  CVR at PGE  Feasibility Study  CVR Pilot  CVR Pilot Results  Next Steps

40. Slide 40: Background

    Background September 25, 2015 Slide 40  National Voltage Standard (ANSI C84.1-1989)  Range A allows +/- 5% of the base voltage: 114V – 126V 126 Typical PGE Urban Feeder 123 Secondary Voltage (V) 120 117 114 National Standard 111

41. Slide 41: Background

    Background September 25, 2015 Slide 41  National Voltage Standard (ANSI C84.1-1989)  Range A allows +/- 5% of the base voltage: 114V – 126V  CVR: reduce consumer power demand by operating within the lower portion of the acceptable voltage bandwidth 126 Typical PGE Urban Feeder Urban 123 Feeder w/

42. Slide 42: Background: Benefits of CVR

    Background September 25, 2015 Slide 42 Benefits of CVR Reduce Reduce Reduce Voltage Demand Consumption 2-4% 1-3% (MW) 1-3% (MWh)

43. Slide 43: Background: Feeder Voltage Profile

    Background September 25, 2015 Slide 43 Feeder Voltage Profile 130 128 Maximum Voltage 126 Secondary Voltage (V) 124 122 120 118 116 Minimum Voltage 114 112 110 Distance From Substation Today

44. Slide 44: Background

    Background September 25, 2015 Slide 44  Simply reducing voltage at substation can result in service voltage below ANSI standard Feeder Voltage Profile 130 128 Maximum Voltage 126 Secondary Voltage (V) 124 122 120 118 116 Minimum Voltage 114 112 110 Distance From Substation Today

45. Slide 45: Background

    Background September 25, 2015 Slide 45  Install Feeder Capacitor Banks  Phase Balancing Feeder Voltage Profile 130 128 Maximum Voltage 126 Secondary Voltage (V) 124 122 120 118 116 Minimum Voltage 114 112 110 Distance From Substation Today

46. Slide 46: Background

    Background September 25, 2015 Slide 46  Install Feeder Capacitor Banks  Phase Balancing Feeder Voltage Profile 130 128 Maximum Voltage 126 Secondary Voltage (V) 124 122 120 118 116 Minimum Voltage 114 112 110 Distance From Substation Today

47. Slide 47: Background

    Background September 25, 2015 Slide 47  Install Feeder Capacitor Banks  Phase Balancing Feeder Voltage Profile 130 128 Maximum Voltage 126 Secondary Voltage (V) 124 122 120 118 116 Minimum Voltage 114 112 110 Distance From Substation Today

48. Slide 48: CVR at PGE

    CVR at PGE September 25, 2015 Slide 48 Feasibility Study CVR Pilots Analyze Impact Communications/Analytics Pilots Strategic CVR Deployment

49. Slide 49: CVR Feasibility Study

    CVR Feasibility Study September 25, 2015 Slide 49 Feasibility Study Goals Feasibility Study • Evaluate what energy savings may be present CVR Pilots • Quantify relationship between % voltage reduction and % energy reduction Analyze Impact • Load Characteristics (Z/I/P) Communications/ • Greatest red

50. Slide 50: CVR Pilots

    CVR Pilots September 25, 2015 Slide 50 CVR Pilot Sites: Feasibility Study • Hogan South (Gresham) • Average Feeder Length: 3.4 mi CVR Pilots • Customer Load Mix • 55/45 Residential/Commercial Analyze Impact • Denny (Beaverton) • Average Feeder Length: 2.5 mi Communications/ Analytics Pilots • Custom

51. Slide 51: Pilot Results

    Pilot Results September 25, 2015 Slide 51 Pilot Results Feasibility Study %kWh : Total % Season Site 1% V1 kWh2 CVR Pilots Hogan 0.87 : 1 2.17 % Winter Denny 0.99 : 1 2.47 % Analyze Impact Hogan 0.91 : 1 1.37 % Summer Denny 0.94 : 1 1.41 % Communications/ 1 Percent of kWh reduction per 1% voltage re

52. Slide 52: Pilot Results

    Pilot Results September 25, 2015 Slide 52 Feasibility Study 25 Year NPV Analysis CVR Pilots Present Value of System Benefits $ 2,530,945 Present Value of Costs $ (671,872) Analyze Impact Net Present Value1 $ 1,859,073 Benefit Cost Ratio 3.77 Communications/ 1 NPV Analysis was based on 25-year Study

53. Slide 53: Next Steps

    Next Steps September 25, 2015 Slide 53  Communication Network Pilot Feasibility Study  Compatibility with Distribution Automation  AMI Voltage Data Bandwidth CVR Pilots Expansion  Visibility – Low Voltage Nodes Analyze Impact  BitStew Data Analytics R&D  Analyze AMI data Communications/ Analyt

54. Slide 54: Timeline

    Timeline September 25, 2015 Slide 54 Complete

55. Slide 55: Questions?

    Questions? September 25, 2015 Slide 55  CVR at PGE  Jonathon Robinson  503-464-8036

56. Slide 56: Resources

    Resources September 25, 2015 Slide 56  Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA)  ANSI C84.1-1989 (National Voltage Standard)  CYME Analysis for Simplified CVR (GRIDCO Systems)  Conservation Voltage Reduction: Initial Results (PGE)  Conservation Voltage Reduction: Cost-Benefit Analysis (PGE)

57. Slide 57: Dispatchable Standby Generation (DSG) update

    Dispatchable Standby Generation (DSG) update

58. Slide 58: Agenda

    Agenda September 25, 2015 Slide 58  How DSG Works  Program History  Typical DSG Project Timeline  Value of DSG  Projected Growth of DSG

59. Slide 59: How DSG Works

    How DSG Works September 25, 2015 Slide 59 With PGE’s Dispatchable Standby Generation (DSG), PGE puts our Customers’ standby generators to work when needed by PGE.  PGE upgrades Customer system HMI Screen Switchgear to enable parallel operation.  PGE pays for most maintenance and operation costs. 

60. Slide 60: Program History

    Program History September 25, 2015 Slide 60  2000 Pilot Project: MacLaren Youth Correctional Facility, 0.4 MW.  2006: 25MW milestone with addition of Sunrise Water Authority Pump Station, 1.13 MW.  2011: 50MW milestone with addition of Oregon State Hospital, 3.6 MW. MacLaren’s generator  2013: 7

61. Slide 61: Typical DSG Project Timeline

    Typical DSG Project Timeline September 25, 2015 Slide 61 Project Development Engineering and Construction Ongoing Operations Initial Online Customer Signed for Contact Contract DSG Initial discussions, site Customer’s investigation and engineering, technical/financial procurement feasibility and con

62. Slide 62: Value of DSG: PGE/Customer Benefit

    Value of DSG: PGE/Customer Benefit September 25, 2015 Slide 62  DSG cost is typically compared to the Approximate Cost of Non‐Spinning Reserve Capacity lowest cost alternative non‐spinning reserve. 180  A simple cycle turbine is a typical 160 $150 ‐ 160 base‐line for comparison. Dollars Per kW-yea

63. Slide 63: Projected Growth of DSG

    Projected Growth of DSG September 25, 2015 Slide 63 160 140 120 MW Capacity 100 80 60 40 20 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

64. Slide 64: Questions?

    Questions? September 25, 2015 Slide 64

65. Slide 65: Resource Optimization Model

    Resource Optimization Model

66. Slide 66: PGE Resource Optimization Model (ROM) Study

    PGE Resource Optimization Model (ROM) Study Public Meeting #4 September 25, 2015 © 2015 Portland General Electric. All rights reserved.

67. Slide 67: Agenda

    Agenda September 25, 2015 Slide 67  What is ROM  How does ROM work  History  2016 IRP

68. Slide 68: ROM?

    ROM? September 25, 2015 Slide 68 Question Answer Purpose ROM’s general goal is to estimate the incremental cost of fully self-integrating Variable Energy Resources into PGE’s current or future resource portfolio. What is it A multi-stage, mixed integer optimization model that considers generation as

69. Slide 69: Model Stages

    Model Stages September 25, 2015 Slide 69  One-year analysis consists of 52 one-week runs.  Model is currently capable of running on a fifteen minute scheduling interval.  The model is run in three stages corresponding to:  Day-Ahead (DA)  Hour-Ahead (HA)  Within Period (WP)  Difference betwee

70. Slide 70: What ROM Considers

    What ROM Considers September 25, 2015 Slide 70 Includes Not Included  Fuel Costs  Capital Costs  O&M Costs  Personnel Costs  Wear & Tear (Cycling) Costs  Hardware/Software Costs  Market Purchases & Sales  Other Fixed Costs  Hydro Limitations  Forced Outage Rates  Plant Characteristics  S

71. Slide 71: ROM Then and Now

    ROM Then and Now September 25, 2015 Slide 71  ROM Then:  Developed as a result of PGE’s 2009 IRP.  Single stage production cost model built in Excel using an Add-on solver.  Only goal was to estimate variable wind integration costs.  ROM Today:  Accepted and Used to support IRP, General Rate C

72. Slide 72: Evolution of ROM

    Evolution of ROM September 25, 2015 Slide 72 Enhancement Description Fully integrated the ability to run the model down to Sub-Hourly Dispatch 15 minute dispatch intervals. Developed the ability to integrate solar generation Solar Plants and Reserves and model unique solar sites. Day-ahead transacti

73. Slide 73: IRP 2016 Study Scope

    IRP 2016 Study Scope September 25, 2015 Slide 73  Goal: Determine costs of integrating wind and solar generation into PGE’s system  Target year: 2021  Existing PGE generating resources  Thermal resources include:  Beaver, Colstrip, Coyote Springs, DSG, Port Westward, Port Westward 2, and Carty.

74. Slide 74: 2016 IRP Methodology

    2016 IRP Methodology September 25, 2015 Slide 74  2016 IRP Scenarios:  Base case (PGE participation in 30/15)  PGE fully self-integrates existing wind (Biglow and Tucannon only)  PGE fully self-integrates existing wind and proxy wind resource  PGE fully self-integrated existing wind, proxy wind

75. Slide 75: Future of ROM

    Future of ROM September 25, 2015 Slide 75  ROM is a continuously evolving model.  PGE internal ROM group is constantly assessing potential model enhancements and future applications.  Possibilities include:  Developing resource technologies  Delivery constraints  Portfolio response to differen

76. Slide 76: External Contributors

    External Contributors September 25, 2015 Slide 76 Technical Review Committee:  J. Charles Smith, Executive Director  Utility Variable-Generation Integration Group (UVIG)  Michael Milligan, Ph.D.  National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)  Brendan Kirby, P.E.  Consultant with NREL  Michael G

77. Slide 77: Questions

    Questions September 25, 2015 Slide 77

78. Slide 78: Appendix

    Appendix

79. Slide 79: 2016 IRP: Feedback Status

    2016 IRP: Feedback Status September 25, 2015 Slide 79 Topic Feedback Received Resolution Completed For stakeholder questions, provide a General Passing the mic was cumbersome. stationary microphone at a podium or 4/13/2015 mics at each table. Update schedule slides to account for automation. Plan to

80. Slide 80: 2016 IRP: Feedback Status

    2016 IRP: Feedback Status September 25, 2015 Slide 80 Topic Feedback Received Resolution Completed PGE to address questions about EE Load Forecast For future discussion, how is the ETO Est. 7/15/15 and projection in the future. Refer to April 2nd Methodology forecast in later years developed? 7/16/1

81. Slide 81: 2016 IRP: Feedback Status

    2016 IRP: Feedback Status September 25, 2015 Slide 81 Topic Feedback Received Resolution Completed How is PGE using the convergence of Demand EE and DR programs, and avoiding over- Response counting benefits? Demand What happened to the EV charging pilot? Response What is the preferred method of Dem

82. Slide 82: 2016 IRP: Feedback Status

    2016 IRP: Feedback Status September 25, 2015 Slide 82 Topic Feedback Received Resolution Completed Can a scenario be included where Flexible market imports are not zero in the Capacity Study summer? Flexible Can the Flexible Capacity Study include Capacity Study a range of CO2 prices? Can there be d

83. Slide 83: 2016 IRP: Feedback Status

    2016 IRP: Feedback Status September 25, 2015 Slide 83 Topic Feedback Received Resolution Completed Stakeholders would like to see portfolios that intuitively account for the Portfolios geographical diversity of renewables (i.e., better examples than Gorge wind). What is PGE's definition of dependabl

84. Slide 84: 2016 IRP: Feedback Status

    2016 IRP: Feedback Status September 25, 2015 Slide 84 Topic Feedback Received Resolution Completed Can PGE provide clarification on the net PRM Study capacities used in winter and summer? Why does DSM not change from winter PRM Study to summer? Can energy efficiency be pulled out of PRM Study load f

85. Slide 85: 2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics

    2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics September 25, 2015 Slide 85 Q2/Q3 2015 July 15 Workshop #1 Technical • Load Forecast Methodology Implementation July 6 April 2 Meeting #1 Workshop #1 Public Commission (Salem) • Load Forecast Results • Welcome • EIM Study Update • Load Forecast • 111(d)

86. Slide 86: 2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics

    2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics September 25, 2015 Slide 86 Q3 2015 (Tentative) August 13 September 25 Meeting #3 Meeting #4 Public Public • Development • Development • Demand Response • 111(d) Rule update • Flexibility Study • Climate Study review • Planning Reserve Margin • CVR Updat

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