Abengoa Sa · OTC:AGOAF
Abengoa Sa — Investor Day (October 2008)
46 slides from Abengoa Sa's investor day presentation, Oct 23, 2008
Slide 1: IV Annual Analyst and Investor Day
ABENGOA IV Annual Analyst and Investor Day October 22nd – 23rd, 2008 ABENGOA BIOENERGY
Slide 2: Index
ABENGOA Index IV Abengoa Investor Day 9 Abengoa Bioenergy H1 Results 9 The Evolution of Abengoa Bioenergy 9 Market Outlook EU Market and overview USA Market and overview Brazil Market and overview New Technology overview 9 Conclusions ABENGOA BIOENERGY 2 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 3: Abengoa Bioenergy H1 Results
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day Abengoa Bioenergy H1 Results ABENGOA BIOENERGY 3 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 4: H1 vs H1 Main Magnitudes
ABENGOA H1 08 vs H1 07 IV Abengoa Investor Day Main Magnitudes (M€) H1 08 H1 07 Dif. Incomes 384,7 264,3 + 46% Ebitda 37,1 31,3 + 18% % Ebitda over sales 9,6% 11,8% - 2,1% ABENGOA BIOENERGY 4 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 5: Risk Management: Margins evolution H1
ABENGOA Margins evolution 07 – 08 H1 IV Abengoa Investor Day 20% Successful management 14,5% 15% of our assets and 8,5% 11,1% 10% execution of our Risk 7,3% 5% 9,5% Management Policy 5,9% 0% (% Ebitda over sales) Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Cash Flow Control Monitoring Discipline commodities
Slide 6: The Evolution of Abengoa Bioenergy
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day The Evolution of Abengoa Bioenergy ABENGOA BIOENERGY 6 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 7: The Evolution of Abengoa Bioenergy
ABENGOA The Evolution of Abengoa Bioenergy IV Abengoa Investor Day f Adquisition Dedini Agro f Abengoa identifies the need for a renewable alternative for transport sector energy needs f 76 MUSD award from DOE for a ethanol commercial facility from lignocellulosic biomass f Construction of the two l
Slide 8: The Global Biofuel Company
ABENGOA The Global Biofuel Company IV Abengoa Investor Day Cartagena, Sp Coruña, Sp Salamanca, Sp Lacq, FR Rotterdam, NE San Roque,Sp 150 Ml/year 195 Ml/year 200 Ml/year 250 Ml/year 480 Ml/year 250 Ml/year Since 1999 Since 2001 Since 2006 Since 2007 Construction Construction York, NE Colwich, KS Por
Slide 9: Relevant Internal Expansion
ABENGOA Relevant Internal Expansion IV Abengoa Investor Day From nowadays to future ethanol capacity (Ml/year) 2007 2008 / 2009 2009 / 2010 Rotterdam 480 Indiana 330 Illinois 330 Lacq 250 San Roque 250 Acumulated Capacity 1.385 1.885 3.025 Ml/year ABENGOA BIOENERGY 9 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 10: Our Company Transition
ABENGOA Our Company Transition IV Abengoa Investor Day To a CO2 net From a BTU emissions Market based economy based economy Our Company A new implication Strategy managed for our through business sustainability ABENGOA BIOENERGY 10 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 11: Sustainability Goals
ABENGOA Sustainability Goals IV Abengoa Investor Day Sustainability areas Objectives 2020 • Environmental 60% GHG reduction • Economical 15% ROE • Social Social and cultural 0,7% over sales development of our employees and our communities ABENGOA BIOENERGY 11 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 12: Opportunities for Abengoa Bioenergy
ABENGOA Opportunities for Abengoa Bioenergy IV Abengoa Investor Day The bioethanol will be value based on sustainability criteria Challenges Supply Chain People and Cash Technology Flexibility Involvement Environment World-wide Global Ethanol recognized leaders in Professional Company 2nd genera
Slide 13: Shall Biofuels be blamed also for the financial crisis?
ABENGOA Shall Biofuels be blamed also for the financial crisis ? … IV Abengoa Investor Day Biofuels are not responsible neither for Food prices nor Global Warming Coarse grain prices vs. EU Ethanol Production (Bl) (EUR/t) 2,2 Corn EU Ethanol production 300 Wheat 280 2,1 260 240 Source: Ebio, Abengoa
Slide 14: EU Market Outlook
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day EU Market Outlook ABENGOA BIOENERGY 14 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 15: EU Legislation still under development
ABENGOA EU Legislation still under development IV Abengoa Investor Day France Mandatory Targets plus Ecotax.: Sweden 5,75% 7% 10% Total tax break 500 €/m3 2008 2010 2012 Jan. 04 – Dec. 2010. Partial tax break (2007 – 2013). e5 massive introduction Segregation well defined Netherlands UK Total tax br
Slide 16: EU Directive of Renewable Energy
ABENGOA EU Directive of Renewable Energy IV Abengoa Investor Day Commission Parliament (Industry and Energy Committee) Scope and targets 5% from total fuel consume just for road Indicative 5,75% from total fuel consume transport in 2015, from them: for transport in 2010 (Includes maritime and rail t
Slide 17: The Market: demand scenario 1G
ABENGOA The Market IV Abengoa Investor Day demand scenario 1G 10% e.c. Demand as Comission / Council (Bl) 19,6 Demand as ITRE (Bl) 7,5% e.c. 14,8 6% 13,4 e.c. 12,4 11,5 11,8 10,5 4% 9,5 e.c. 7,9 7,3 6,6 6,7 6,2 5,3 5,8 4,6 5 4,6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 Sources: Icis, Matiff, Abe
Slide 18: EU Market crush spread
ABENGOA EU Market crush spread IV Abengoa Investor Day (€/m3) 190 1 year Avg 97,17 EUR/m3 Sources: Icis, Matiff, Abengoa estimates 178 140 135 90 70 44 46 40 9 -10 se p-07 nov-07 e ne -08 ma r-08 ma y-08 jul-08 se p-08 -60 -58 Ethanol Crush = (Icis Lor Ethanol price – (Matiff Maizze price / yield))
Slide 19: EU S&D (ITRE scenario)
ABENGOA EU S&D (ITRE scenario) IV Abengoa Investor Day (Bl) (€/m3) 12,0 195,0 Crush margins 11,0 ITRE Demand 193,0 10,0 ITRE Production (without imports) 191,0 9,0 189,0 8,0 187,0 7,0 185,0 6,0 183,0 5,0 181,0 4,0 179,0 3,0 177,0 2,0 175,0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 Sources: ITRE,
Slide 20: EU Market main conclusions
ABENGOA EU Market IV Abengoa Investor Day main conclusions 1. 2020 demand increases x2 in the worst case and a x5 in the last Commission proposal 2. The current legislation is aligned with our strategy on biomass to ethanol 3. Higher margins due to the pressure on increasing demand 4. Current sustai
Slide 21: U.S. Market Outlook
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day U.S. Market Outlook ABENGOA BIOENERGY 21 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 22: US favourable framework to continue to support ethanol
ABENGOA US favourable framework IV Abengoa Investor Day to continue to support ethanol Re ne wa ble Fue l S ta nda Renewable rds, Fuel ca pa city (Bgal) Standards ( bn of ga llons) Ethanol 40 Year To tal R FS 3 6Bgal 36 bn Market Share 35 Co n ven ti o n al O th er Ad van ced Cel l u l o s e 2015 12
Slide 23: Ethanol S&D
ABENGOA Ethanol S&D IV Abengoa Investor Day Bgal % Production Ethanol Inventories 0.60 Ethanol Inventory (Bgal) 13% Ethanol inventories as a % 0.50 Inventories as % of Annualized Production have been decreasing… 11% 0.40 9% 0.30 0.20 7% 0.10 5% Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul-
Slide 24: US Market Crush Spread
ABENGOA US Market Crush Spread IV Abengoa Investor Day 1.00 USD/gal 0.80 Ytd Avg 0.60 USD/gal 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Jan-08 Feb-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Eth an o l Cru s h = (CB O T Eth an o l p ri ce) - (CB O T co rn p ri ce/2 .7 ) * 7 0 % - (NYMEX Nat G as * .0 3 1 7 6 7 mmB TU/g al ) So
Slide 25: Demand for Ethanol
ABENGOA Demand for Ethanol IV Abengoa Investor Day % of Ethanol on Conventional % of Conventional Gasoline Gasoline Blended Blended <- Actual Forecast-> 100% 13 Bgal 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 9 Bgal 40% 30% 7 Bgal 20% 10% 0% may-07 sep-07 ene-08 may-08 sep-08 ene-09 may-09 sep-09 Sources: EIAEIA Sources:
Slide 26: S&D: The Worst is Over
ABENGOA S&D: The Worst is Over IV Abengoa Investor Day Bgal Crush Margin (USD/gal) 16 RFS 2.8 Production 14 Demand Sources: RFA, EIA, Abengoa estimates Crush 2.4 12 2.0 10 1.6 8 1.2 6 4 0.8 2 0.4 0 0.0 2007 2007- 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2008 2008- 2009 2009- 2010 2010- 2011 End End End End C
Slide 27: US Market Summary
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day US Market Summary • The worst in the ethanol market is behind us • Huge incentive to maintain demand for conventional gasoline blends • By the end of 2009 ethanol supply and demand would balance, which will pressure crush spread to increase • Low expectations of large
Slide 28: Brazil Market Outlook
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day Brazil Market Outlook ABENGOA BIOENERGY 28 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 29: Ethanol domestic demand: Main driver for sector growth
ABENGOA Ethanol domestic demand: Main driver for sector growth IV Abengoa Investor Day Ethanol Demand by Types of Consumption Estimated FFV growth Gasoline Anydrous consumption (Bl) FFV/Ethanol only cars, FFV cars as FFV Anydrous consumption (Bl) M cars % of total fleet Hydrous consumption (Bl) 50 1
Slide 30: S&D in balance
ABENGOA S&D in balance IV Abengoa Investor Day 2007-2020 Ethanol Supply CAGR 10% 2007-2020 Ethanol Demand CAGR 10% Brazilian Ethanol Supply and Demand Ethanol Production (Bl) Ethanol Consumption (Bl) Ethanol Exports (Bl) 90 84 80 76 70 60 54 50 50 40 34 27 29 30 23 22 19 20 7.7 10 4.9 4.0 3.6 3.7 0
Slide 31: Balanced market, limited exports to push up Ebitda margin
ABENGOA Balanced market, limited exports to push up Ebitda margin IV Abengoa Investor Day Ethanol Supply & Demand and Ebitda Margin Ethanol production (Bl) Ebitda Margin Ethanol Consumption (Bl) % of Sugar price 100 80 40% 60 40 20% 20 0 0% 2008 2010 2015 2020 Source: Abengoa estimates Balanced etha
Slide 32: Brazilian Sugar market: Overshadowed by ethanol growth
ABENGOA Brazilian Sugar market: Overshadowed by ethanol growth IV Abengoa Investor Day 2007-2020 Sugar Supply CAGR 1% 2007-2020 Sugar Demand CAGR 2% Brazilian Sugar Supply and Demand Sugar Production (Mt) Sugar Demand (Mt) Sugar Exports (Mt) 45 40 36 36 35 31 32 32 30 25 21 18 18 19 20 18 15 15 12 1
Slide 33: World Sugar S&D
ABENGOA World Sugar S&D IV Abengoa Investor Day World Sugar Outlook 2009 - forward Sugar balance shifting to deficit Gap/Surplus Sugar Price Mt c/lb 12 20 10 19 8 18 6 17 4 16 2 15 0 14 -2 -4 13 -6 12 -8 11 2007/08 2008/09 2010 2011 2015 2020 Source: ISO, USDA, Abengoa estimates Higher ethanol price
Slide 34: Brazilian Market Conclusions
ABENGOA Brazilian Market Conclusions IV Abengoa Investor Day • Ethanol sector will expand massively through 2020 with increasing share allocated to ethanol and less to sugar • Most of ethanol supply would be consumed locally due to high growth of FFV… • …Leaving limited room for export potential and
Slide 35: New Technologies Outlook
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day New Technologies Outlook ABENGOA BIOENERGY 35 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 36: Technology: Strategic vision
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day Strategic vision nov ation n n t hr ough i io Evolut Market evolution Commercial Commercial ethanol ethanol Massive production Ethanol production introduction from ETBE & E5 from hybrid Mandate in of higher lignocellulosic Co -existence lignocellulosic EU (E5) ethanol
Slide 37: R&D projects deployment
ABENGOA R&D projects deployment IV Abengoa Investor Day Technology Goals Specific Projects • Biodiesel production (60% GHG saving) CCEE: Algae Lacq Biomass Hybrid concept (integration 1G) Enzimatic • CO2 reduction Hydrolisis • Ethanol production (60% GHG savings) Hugoton • Renewable energy Biomass G
Slide 38: Leading the 2nd Generation
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day Leading the 2nd Generation Commercial Hybrid Biomass Plant Hugoton (KS, US) • Capacity : 100 Mgal/year (13 Mgal/year biomass, 87 Mgal/year starch) • Raw material : Corn starch and stover • Technology : Enzymatic Hydrolysis (glucose & xylose) • Objective : Production a
Slide 39: Hugoton Biomass
ABENGOA Hugoton Biomass IV Abengoa Investor Day Contract DOE / Hugoton KS 9 The first commercial hybrid facility in USA, biomass and cereal •700tn/day of biomass (ag residue and grasses) and 31MBu/y cereal • 400 t/day biomass a 75 gal/t = 13 Mgal/year cellulosic EtOH • 300 t/day biomass for gasifica
Slide 40: Lacq Biomass
ABENGOA Lacq Biomass IV Abengoa Investor Day 9 The first hybrid facility in Europe. Targets 9 To reach a life cicle > 60% Project ABHF 9 Successful presentation to the French Engineering Academy Status 9 Ministerial request of a detailed proposal 9 Stablishing strategic partnerships ABENGOA BIOENERG
Slide 41: Conclusions
ABENGOA IV Abengoa Investor Day Conclusions ABENGOA BIOENERGY 41 Science. Solutions. Service.
Slide 42: Global ethanol demand is sky-rocketing
ABENGOA Global ethanol demand is sky-rocketing IV Abengoa Investor Day Ethanol Demand (2007-2020) in Bl 185 ) = 7,6% 20 R (07- CAG 11 12 16 Other 52 EU 20 49 58 US 1 Brazil 78 4 26 76 18 2007 2020 So urces: RFA , Unica, A nfavea, A NP , USDA , Rabo bank,B io agencia, M o rgan Stanley, B ear Stearns,
Slide 43: Ethanol more and more Significant in Global Gasoline Demand
ABENGOA Ethanol more and more Significant in IV Abengoa Investor Day Global Gasoline Demand Gasoline + Ethanol Demand (2007-2020) in Bl 1.349 1.349 49 3,6% 13,7% 185 1.300 1.164 Gasoline 2007 Ethanol 2020e Sources: IEA, Worldwatch Institute and Abengoa estimates Ethanol will displace a significant f
Slide 44: 2008-2010 Framework
ABENGOA 2008-2010 Framework IV Abengoa Investor Day US UE Brazil • ABBr integration Technologies • Hybrid 1st. • Hybrid 1st. and optimization Concept (Vertical Concept (Vertical • Vertically Integrated New Integration) Integration) Greenfields • Sustainability Plan • Sustainability Plan • Sustainabi
Slide 45: Strategic Version: Capacity and Technological Licensing
ABENGOA Dinamic Visual Strategic Version IV Abengoa Investor Day Total Capacity Tecnológical Total Capacity Technological = 338 MGY Licensing = 374 MGY Licensing Rotterdam Terminal. Indiana Sust. Plan Sust. Plan Hybrid + Hybrid + Terminal. Illinois + 126 MGY + 176 MGY Cartagena Teixeiro York Salaman
Slide 46: Strategic Plan Margins
ABENGOA Strategic Plan Margins IV Abengoa Investor Day 20,0% 20% % Ebitda 15% over sales 11,1% 10% 7,3% 5,9% 9,0% 5% Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 2008 2009 2015 2020 Steady US Higher sugar market and ethanol crush spread Demand prices drove increases a Key issues in each by domestic 13% demand market Bra