Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Investor Presentation (May 2022)
77 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's investor presentation, May 5, 2022
Slide 1: WG Balancing of 05th May 2022
WG Balancing of 05th May 2022 Hybrid meeting – 05/05/2022
Slide 2: For a smooth teleconference with 30+ people
For a smooth teleconference with 30+ people … Some rules apply - Please put yourself on mute at any time that you are not speaking to avoid background noise. - If you receive a call, please ensure that you do not put this meeting on hold. - You can quit and reconnect later on. - You will be muted or
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 09:00 – 09:10: Introduction and minutes 09:10 – 09:50: EU Balancing Program Update 09:50 – 10:50: Imbalance price – aFRR component Coffee Break 11:00 – 11:30: Implementation of CRI computation 11:30 – 11:40: DARE dimensioning results for 2021 11:40 – 12:20: 2021 Year Overview AOB • Launch of
Slide 4: Minutes of Meeting for approval
Minutes of Meeting for approval Minutes of Meeting of WG Balancing on 24th of March 2022: • No comments received from the stakeholders. 4
Slide 5: EU Balancing Program update
EU Balancing Program update Presented by Cécile Pellegrin
Slide 6: Agenda
Agenda • aFRR go-lives: status and next steps • Other Stakeholder management interactions 6
Slide 7: aFRR go-lives: status and next steps
aFRR go-lives: status and next steps
Slide 8: Reminder Last WG BAL 04/03/22 aFRR go-live step 2
Reminder Last WG BAL 04/03/22 aFRR go-live step 2 Planning aFRR Go live (step 1): • aFRR capacity • aFRR energy local, except aFRR Go live (step 2): MP and modification of • Connection to PICASSO price cap • Switch to MP • Change price cap Go-Live aFRR platform Launch public consultation Balancing R
Slide 9: Reminder Last WG BAL aFRR go-live step 2
Reminder Last LastWG WGBAL BAL22/11/21 04/03/22 aFRR go-live step 2 Planning aFRR Go live (step 1): • aFRR capacity • aFRR energy local, except aFRR Go live (step 2): MP and modification of • Connection to PICASSO price cap • Switch to MP • Change price cap Go-Live aFRR platform Launch public consul
Slide 10: aFRR Step 1 Go live
aFRR Step 1 Go live 1st activation of Contractual gate opening capacity bid Contractual gate opening energy bid 1st auction energy bids (Biple) Apr 18 Apr 27 May 2 May 4 2022 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 02 04 2022 Today aFRR Capacity • Successful go-live, auctions for the first delivery days were operated
Slide 11: Reminder Last WG BAL 04/03/22 aFRR go-live step 2
Reminder Last WG BAL 04/03/22 aFRR go-live step 2 • German TSOs announced earlier this week they are postponing their connection to PICASSO on the 22nd of June. The planning of the EU TSOs, including Elia, needs to be adapted based on this new element • Elia still plans to introduce the balancing ru
Slide 12: aFRR go-live step 2 Proposed planning
Earliest possible planning aFRR go-live step 2 Proposed planning WG BAL WG BAL Jun 22 Sep 15 Go-Live aFRR platform (*) EBGL Legal deadline aFRR Go Live (step 2) Jun 22 Jul 24 Sep 27 2022 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2022 Today Approval of Balancing Rules by CREG Submission of Balancing Rules to CREG
Slide 13: Other Stakeholder management interactions
Other Stakeholder management interactions
Slide 14: Others stakeholder management interactions
Others stakeholder management interactions - Public Consultations • T&C BSP aFRR -> Consultation finalized and proposal submitted to CREG • Balancing rules -> See previous presentation - Next planned interactions: • aFRR Energy Management Strategy (EMS) Requirements The feedbacks received from sever
Slide 15: Imbalance Price – aFRR component
Imbalance Price – aFRR component Presented by Caroline Bosschaerts
Slide 16: Context
Context Between 18 December 2021 and 02 February 2022, Elia organized a public consultation on its new proposal for the “balancing rules” Elia received 2 non-confidential answers from Febeg and Febeliec Based on this feedback, Elia adapted its proposal. A summary of the answers to the public c
Slide 17: Main principles of new proposal
Main principles of new proposal 1 Objective 1 - Benefiting from EU integration The price is based on the volume weighted average of the Cross-Border Marginal Prices of the uncongested area as long as the resulting price signal does not incentivize BRPs to aggravate BE SI 2 Objective 2 – Without jeop
Slide 18: A volume weighted CBMP is used to benefit from EU integration
1 A volume weighted CBMP is used to benefit as much as possible from EU integration Associating the CBMP to all the optimization cycles generally provides incentives to BRPs to optimize the EU dispatch However, in some situations, the resulting price signal incentivizes the BRPs to aggravate the
Slide 19: Cap/floor are introduced to avoid jeopardizing grid security
2 Cap/floor are introduced to avoid jeopardizing grid security Imbalance price The purpose of the cap/floor is to provide the most neutral price signal as possible to BRPs when cheaper flexibility is available abroad. This way, the BRP is not incentivized to aggravate the BE SI, but it is not ince
Slide 20: The values of the cap and floor are determined to discourage market manipulation
2 The values of the cap and floor are determined to discourage market manipulation VoAA is the value of the first bid of the aFRR+mFRR LMOL, which can be easily influenced by a small “dummy” bid placed by one single BSP. To avoid any tentative of market manipulation, Elia suggests to use the followi
Slide 21: Avoiding market manipulation– visual illustration
MOL with dummy bids 2 Avoiding market manipulation– visual illustration Used as a floor for MIP instead of VoAA up the BSP who placed the dummy bid in the Usual MOL upward direction will not be able to set the MIP ID market VoAA down price Used as a cap for MDP the BSP who Used as a tried to set
Slide 22: A “dead band” is introduced to moderate the IP
3 A “dead band” is introduced to moderate the IP when BRPs correctly did their job and hence no strong implicit reaction is necessary Possible very important spread between MIP and “Dead band” MDP Cap at VoAA down to ensure IP Cap at VoAA down to ensure IP does not aggravate BE situation does not ag
Slide 23: This dead band presents several advantages
3 This dead band presents several advantages According to Elia, this "dead band" presents several advantages : It ensures that the Imbalance Price is never very punitive when Belgian BRPs correctly made their job to balance the Belgian system; BRPs could otherwise be exposed to very high imbalance
Slide 24: A careful approach is proposed to define the width of the dead band
3 A careful approach is proposed to define the width of the dead band Elia believes that the dead band width should be calibrated according to the following criteria: it should reflect the range of SIs for which significant implicit reactions from BRPs is not useful; Considering the current implic
Slide 25: Formulas for the calculation of the main component of the Imbalance Price
These principles result in the following formulas for the calculation of the main component of the Imbalance Price Determination of the MIP: • max( VoAA up, VoAA down) when the BE average SI over the ISP belongs to the dead band σ𝑂𝐶 𝑎𝑏𝑠(𝑎𝐹𝑅𝑅 𝑆𝐷𝑂𝐶,𝑗 )∗𝐶𝐵𝑀𝑃𝑂𝐶,𝑗 𝑗=𝑞ℎ • max…
Slide 26: This new proposal is subject to monitoring and evaluation moments
This new proposal is subject to monitoring and evaluation moments The impact of the new approach for the determination of the marginal incremental and decremental prices is monitored and an evaluation moment is planned at the latest one year after the entry into force of the present rules (or earlie
Slide 27: Until 11:00
Until 11:00
Slide 28: Implementation of CRI computation
1.Implementation of CRI computation 1. Presented by Martin Funck
Slide 29: Implementation of the new CRI computation
Implementation of the new CRI computation Summary • The new CRI computation has been validated by a parallel run from 27/11 to 28/02 • Given the parallel run results of the new CRI computation: • Results better in line with real-time situation added value for Grid Security • Less high and medium C
Slide 30: CRI results from 27/11 to 28/02 – downward direction
Congestion Risk Indicator (CRI) – results from 27/11 to 28/02 – downward direction Parallel Run Results Comparison btw Parallel Run Results (CRI) and Red-Zones 120% 250 Electrical Comparison CRI with red zones Red Zones results Zone 225 (//run) (Production) 100% 196 200 % TIME IN CRI LEVELS AVERAGE
Slide 31: CRI results from 27/11 to 28/02 – upward direction
Congestion Risk Indicator (CRI) – Results from 27/11 to 28/02 – upward direction Parallel Run Results Comparison btw Parallel Run Results (CRI) and Red-Zones 120% 200 Electrical CRI Red Zones 182 180 Zone (//run) (Production) 100% 160 153 % time in CRI levels Average of MWCap 140 80% High Medium Red
Slide 32: Current version of the Coordination Rules
Current version of the Coordination Rules Art. 17.2 Red Zones determined by Elia are based on a check to see whether or not Daily Schedules for day D received after the closure of the Day-ahead Market or deviations of the Daily Schedules on day D could cause Congestions. In case a deviation, in a sp
Slide 33: In practice
In practice Post CRI computation go- Post mFRR & iCAROS go- AS IS situation live (September 2022) live Determina tion of • Once in D-1, ad-hoc in ID • Level determined at 10pm in D-1 & updated 3 times in ID indicator • Based on a structural methodology and quantitative yearly process Impact of Use t
Slide 34: DARE dimensioning results for 2021
DARE dimensioning results for 2021 Presented by Didier Chim
Slide 35: RECAP - Dynamic dimensioning methodology
RECAP - Dynamic dimensioning methodology • FRR reserve capacity is determined based on a probabilistic methodology in line with Article 157(2)b of the SOGL covering 99.0% of the LFC block imbalance risks • It takes into account two deterministic thresholds : • Always larger than the dimensioning inc
Slide 36: Available information
Available information Daily publication of the results (before 7 AM D-1): final FRR needs and mFRR balancing capacity (to be procured) Yearly analysis of the FRR needs and means : assess whether the positive and negative FRR needs have been sufficiently covered by the resources available. In l
Slide 37: FRR needs 1-2-2021 – 31-01-2022
FRR needs 1-2-2021 – 31-01-2022 Results for upward dimensioning continue to be set by the dimensioning incident. The variations of the probabilistic result (PROB99) of the upward FRR needs remained relatively stable for the studied period, except for a couple of weeks in May and the month of Septemb
Slide 38: FRR needs 1-2-2021 – 31-01-2022
FRR needs 1-2-2021 – 31-01-2022 FRR needs are most of the time set by the dimensioning incident (DET N-1). FRR needs are substantially reduced to the PROB99 or HIST99 when Nemo Link is predicted in import (or scheduled in maintenance between 21-24 September 2021).
Slide 39: Nemo Link forecast : 1-2-2021 – 31-01-2022
Nemo Link forecast : 1-2-2021 – 31-01-2022 The day-ahead forecast of the Nemo Link flow direction was able to provide a forecast of the direction in 84.0% of the time. Over these periods, the method predicted an import or export flow direction correctly during 87.6% of the time. The forecast remains
Slide 40: FRR means 1-2-2021 – 31-01-2022
FRR means 1-2-2021 – 31-01-2022 In line with the analyses made in the framework of the LFC Means, coverage downward needs has slightly decreased since last year and were covered up to the reliability level of 97.7%. This is explained by low flexibility on pumped-hydro (pumps) and remaining cross-bor
Slide 41: Year overview: Balancing Services Statistics 2021
Year overview: Balancing Services Statistics 2021 Presented by Amandine Leroux
Slide 42: Balancing Capacity
Balancing Capacity Statistics 2021
Slide 43: FCR Capacity Auctions – Volume repartition
FCR Capacity Auctions – Volume repartition FCR Capacity in 2021 is mainly procured : FCR to Core share Year procure (BE) (BE) Cross-border 2020 78 MW 24 MW From DPPG for the core share (BE part) 2021 87 MW 27 MW WG Bal 24-03-2022 46
Slide 44: FCR Capacity Prices
FCR Capacity Prices Evolution of Daily Average FCR Capacity Price 263 €/MW/h 200 FCR 2020 Daily Average FCR Capacity Price 802 €/MW/h X-border 175 Updated contract BE core share marginal price 150 125 [€/MW/h] 100 75 50 25 0 02/06/2021 15/09/2021 01/07/2020 22/07/2020 12/08/2020 02/09/2020 23/09/202
Slide 45: FCR Capacity Prices – Evolution since Jan 2020
FCR Capacity Prices – Evolution since Jan 2020 Title of presentation 48
Slide 46: FCR Availability Control – Capacity Tests
FCR Availability Control – Capacity Tests Situation Dec 21: Requested FCR has to be supplied during 2 minutes in both directions 11 tests / 3 BSPs Missing MW is penalized in proportion of monthly remuneration, 6 successful depending on % of failure and quality of historical tests delivery 2
Slide 47: FCR Availability Control – Energy Tests
FCR Availability Control – Energy Tests Situation Dec 21: Requested FCR has to be supplied during 25 minutes 3 parks of batteries tested Missing Time is penalized in proportion of monthly remuneration, 2 tests successful depending on % of failure and quality of historical tests delivery 1 te
Slide 48: aFRR Capacity Prices
aFRR Capacity Prices 644,9 €/MW/h aFRR 2020 Updated contract Peaks in aFRR capacity prices are caused by various situations Main reason remains correlation with the CSS (important part of aFRR capacity still provided by gas units) Capacity Auctions Analysis 51
Slide 49: aFRR Capacity Prices
aFRR Capacity Prices 644,9 aFRR 2020 Positive CSS Updated contract Gas units in the money Expensive must-run Peaks in aFRR Down prices High aFRR Down capacity prices driven by must-run costs (negative CSS) Negative CSS 70% of the time during 2021 Capacity Auctions Analysis 52
Slide 50: aFRR Capacity Prices
aFRR Capacity Prices 644,9 aFRR 2020 25/10/2021 Updated contract CAV = -4 MW Per-CCTU auctions Peaks in aFRR Down prices Unavailability of aFRR capacity provided by DPpg in Per-CCTU (4-hour block) auctions Selection of aFRR capacity provided by gas units in the Per-CCTU auctions (= worst case as m
Slide 51: aFRR Capacity Prices
aFRR Capacity Prices 644,9 aFRR 2020 Updated contract Unavailability of main gas units providing aFRR Unavailabily of main gas units providing aFRR capacity aFRR capacity provided by more expensive delivery points Capacity Auctions Analysis 54
Slide 52: aFRR Capacity Prices – Evolution since Jan 2020
aFRR Capacity Prices – Evolution since Jan 2020 Monthly aFRR prices evolution 140,00 120,00 100,00 €/MW/h 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 0,00 aFRR + price 2020 aFRR - price 2020 aFRR + price 2021 aFRR - price 2021 Title of presentation 55
Slide 53: mFRR capacity prices
mFRR capacity prices 07/01/2021 – mFRR capacity to procure decreased by 200MW (increase of reserve sharing contribution from 50MW to 250MW) High mFRR capacity prices observed in December 2021 Capacity Auctions Analysis 56
Slide 54: mFRR capacity prices – Evolution since Jan 2020
mFRR capacity prices – Evolution since Jan 2020 Title of presentation 57
Slide 55: mFRR Availability Control – Capacity Tests
mFRR Availability Control – Capacity Tests Min 1 and max 12 tests per year (max can decrease to 6 if success) Situation Dec 21 Test duration of two quarter hours and requested volume to be supplied 23 tests / 8 BSPs during the second quarter hour 16 successful Missing MW is penalized in prop
Slide 56: Transfer of Energy
Transfer of Energy Statistics 2021
Slide 57: ToE statistics - mFRR DPPG
ToE statistics - mFRR DPPG Situation December 2021: Number of BSPs: 12 Number of Suppliers: 22 Sum of mFRRmax (corresponding to DPPG) mFRR Standard & Flex mFRR Flex only Dec 2020 476 MW 71 MW Dec 2021 528 MW 35 MW ToE Opt-Out Pass Through Total 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 # Deliver
Slide 58: Balancing Energy
Balancing Energy Statistics 2021
Slide 59: mFRR Standard / mFRR Flex Energy Bids
mFRR Standard / mFRR Flex Energy Bids mFRR Standard Min (€/MWh) Max (€/MWh) Average (€/MWh) mFRR Flex Min (€/MWh) Max (€/MWh) Average (€/MWh) 2020 72 5.000 675 2020 70 3.355 596 2021 70 4.038 868 2021 121 2.880 719 Prices of mFRR energy bids (STD & Flex) stay in similar range with regards to 2020
Slide 60: Non-Contracted mFRR Energy Bids DPPG
Non-Contracted mFRR Energy Bids DPPG No offers in 2021 No energy bids mFRR NC submitted in 2021 from delivery points DPPG WG Bal 24-03-2022 63
Slide 61: Balancing Energy – Percentage of each balancing energy
Balancing Energy – Percentage of each balancing energy 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Total balancing energy activated in MWh 20% 15% 2020 2021 10% 5% 1 140 812 1 209 948 0% aFRR IGCC mFRR mFRR mFRR Réserve Standard Flex NC+/ Inter-TSO mFRR NC- 2020 2021 Total balancing energy activated is slightly higher
Slide 62: Balancing Energy – automatic activation
Balancing Energy – automatic activation 30.000,00 40.000 IGCC Up 25.000,00 aFRR Up 35.000 30.000 20.000,00 25.000 in MWh in MWh 15.000,00 20.000 15.000 10.000,00 10.000 5.000,00 5.000 0 0,00 aFRR + 2020 aFRR + 2021 IGCC + 2020 IGCC + 2021 0,00 0 -5.000 -5.000,00 -10.000 in MWh -10.000,00 in MWh -15.
Slide 63: Balancing Energy – Manual activation Upwards
Balancing Energy – Manual activation Upwards 25.000 20.000 mFRR Standard and non-contracted [in MWh] 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December mFRR NC+ 2021 mFRR Std 2021 mFRR NC+ 2020 mFRR Std 2020 450 mFRR Flex and inter TSO [in MWh
Slide 64: Balancing Energy – Manual activation Downwards
Balancing Energy – Manual activation Downwards mFRR non-contracted [in MWh] 0 -2.000 -4.000 -6.000 -8.000 -10.000 -12.000 -14.000 -16.000 mFRR NC- 2021 mFRR NC- 2020 Inter TSO [in MWh] 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900 -1.000 Inter TSO Export 2021 Inter TSO Export 2020 WG Bal 24-03-2022
Slide 65: FCR Activation Control
FCR Activation Control Most of the controls are Maximum 6 controls and 2 controls per CCTU per month performed on BSP providing failure factor = (FCR Requested – FCR Supplied) / FCR Requested FCR with pool of DPPG Criteria of classification in table below: Small decrease of performance – I
Slide 66: aFRR Activation Control
aFRR Activation Control Continous control based on telemeasures Penalized energy equals the difference between the aFRR Supplied and Situation dec 21: aFRR Requested taking into account a tolerance of 15% of energy bid volume Similar level of penalized Energie pénalisante MWh Total energy comp
Slide 67: mFRR Activation Control
mFRR Activation Control Examples of days for which more than 300 MW of mFRR energy has been activated by Elia In general a good delivery or a light underdelivery of mFRR energy is observed WG Bal 17-03-2021 71
Slide 68: Quality
lia Quality Statistics 2021
Slide 69: Evolution System Imbalance (last 5 years)
Evolution System Imbalance (last 5 years) WG Bal 24-03-2022 73
Slide 70: Quality Results
Quality Results Monitoring FRCE Niveau 1 Niveau 2 Ref Niveau 1 Ref Niveau 2 Levels 1 & 2 98 186 (MW): (MW): Limits established in SOGL for Period # QH Cible % Ref 30% Cible % Ref 5% FRCE (or ACE) # QH > Ref # QH > Ref Period % Ref % Ref Niveau 1 Niveau 2 JAN 2.976 262 8,8% 65 2,2% Level 1 is sim
Slide 71: AOB
lia AOB
Slide 72: AOB – Launch of FCR Additional Properties public consultation
AOB – Launch of FCR Additional Properties public consultation Presented by Didier Chim
Slide 73: Launch of FCR Additional Properties public consultation
Launch of FCR Additional Properties public consultation The public consultation on FCR Additional Properties has been launched on 29th of April until 30th of May. Stakeholders can find all on-going public consultation on the website of Elia and are invited to provide feedback.
Slide 74: AOB - Current status of participation of stakeholders in workshops
AOB - Current status of participation of stakeholders in workshops Presented by Nicolas Pierreux
Slide 75: AOB – Next WG Balancing
AOB – Next WG Balancing Presented by Didier Chim
Slide 76: Next WG Balancing
Next WG Balancing • WG Balancing 22/06/2022 9:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 15/09/2022 9:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 27/10/2022 9:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 07/12/2022 9:00 – 13:00 Dates will be upload into the agenda of the WG Balancing page and usergroups.
Slide 77: Overview of WGs and related workshops
Overview of WGs and related workshops 81