Lamda Development S.a. · ATHEX:LAMDA
Lamda Development — Investor Day (July 2021)
68 slides from Lamda Development's investor day presentation, Jul 15, 2021
Slide 1: Investor Day Presentation
INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION A jewel of hidden value The Ellinikon: beginning of a new era for Greece 15 JULY 2021
Slide 2: Contents
Contents 1. Introduction 3 2. Envisaged NAV in 2025 6 The Ellinikon – NAV Growth Drivers 10 Secured Project Proceeds of Phase 1 (2021-2025) 20 Project Costs 29 Project Construction Timeline 33 The Ellinikon Malls 38 Other Projects Phase 1 (2021-2025) 42 The Ellinikon - Preparation for Project Execut
Slide 3: 1. Introduction
1. INTRODUCTION 3
Slide 4: LAMDA at a Glance
LAMDA at a Glance High Quality Real Estate Portfolio Shopping Malls - Marinas - Office space & Land plots The Mall Athens Golden Hall Mediterranean Cosmos Flisvos Marina 58.5k sqm GLA 52.5k sqm GLA 46k sqm GLA 303 berths Development Experience: 3 Shopping Malls - 8 Office buildings - 4 Residential c
Slide 5: The Ellinikon 2021 Short Video
THE ELLINIKON 2021 SHORT VIDEO 5
Slide 6: 2. Envisaged NAV in 2025
2. ENVISAGED NAV IN 2025 6
Slide 7: Potential NAV Growth
Potential NAV Growth CAGR: 21-24% (2021 – 2025) March 2021 2025 NAV growth Actual Projection NAV (€bn) 1.1 1.7 – 2.1 2.8 – 3.2 NAV per share (€) 6.21 10 – 12 16 – 18 CAGR: 21-24% 7
Slide 8: Key Drivers of NAV Growth
Key Drivers of NAV Growth The Ellinikon & Existing Malls (2021 – 2025) NAV (€bn) NAV per share (€) Existing Malls 0.3 1.5 The Ellinikon 1.4 – 1.8 8.2 – 10.5 Total NAV Creation 1.7 – 2.1 10 – 12 8
Slide 9: Key Drivers of NAV Growth
Key Drivers of NAV Growth Total Project: €1.7 – €2.1bn potential upside €16 – 18 per share €2.8 – 3.2bn €0.8 – 1.0bn Ellinikon Phases 2026 – 2035 €6.2 per share €0.6 – 0.8bn Ellinikon Phase 1 (2021-2025) €1.1bn €1.4bn Total existing business Total existing business 2021 Actual 2025 Estimated 9
Slide 10: The Ellinikon NAV Growth Drivers
THE ELLINIKON NAV GROWTH DRIVERS 10
Slide 11: The Ellinikon: The Master Plan
The Ellinikon The Master Plan 11
Slide 12: The Ellinikon Development Strategy
The Ellinikon Development Strategy Develop Coastal Front & Commercial District to: • Boost tourism • Attract investors Strategy • Create momentum for subsequent Residential absorption Create Strategic Alliances with best-in-class partners • Mitigate Execution Risk Residential To be undertaken by LAM
Slide 13: Phase 1 (2021-2025) Key Developments
Phase 1 (2021-2025) Key Developments OFFICE TOWER MIXED-USE TOWER (MUT) N VOULIAGMENIS MALL & OFFICES ABOVE MALL SPORTS COMPLEX MAINSTREAM RESIDENTIAL IRC MARINA GALLERIA PARKFRONT RESIDENTIAL MARINA TOWER BEACH CONDOS BEACH VILLAS BEACH LUXURY HOTEL & BRANDED RESIDENCES MARINA LUXURY HOTEL & BRANDE
Slide 14: The Ellinikon – NAV Growth Drivers
The Ellinikon – NAV Growth Drivers Phase 1 (2021 – 2025) Project Estimated NAV Creation (€m)(1) NAV per share (€) Villas 160 – 195 0.9 – 1.1 Marina Residential Tower 175 – 210 1.0 – 1.2 Condos 65 – 80 0.4 – 0.5 Park-front and Mainstream Residential 405 – 455 2.3 – 2.6 Vouliagmenis Mall 285 – 350 1.6
Slide 15: Mainstream Residential
Mainstream Residential Brought forward the development of approx. 1,200 units Capitalizing on buoyant demand for Residential units in the Athenian Riviera, LAMDA plans to bring forward the development of approx. 1,200 Mainstream Residential units NSA (sqm) c.108,000 GFA (sqm) c.120,000 Selling Price
Slide 16: The Ellinikon – NAV Growth Drivers, Phases 2026-2035
The Ellinikon – NAV Growth Drivers Phases 2026 – 2035 Estimated NAV Creation Project Nominal Value (€bn)(1) Residential 1.7 – 2.1 Retail 0.3 – 0.4 Hospitality 0.3 Other (Office, Sports etc) 0.2 – 0.3 Land & Infrastructure costs (0.8) – (1.0) Phases 2026 – 2035 1.7 – 2.1 Phases 2026 – 2035 0.8 – 1.0
Slide 17: The Ellinikon – Residential Developments
The Ellinikon – Residential Developments Phases 2026 – 2035 TOTAL GFA: 924K SQM TOTAL UNITS: 8,500 43k sqm 144k sqm 185k sqm 89k sqm 346k sqm 25k sqm 92k sqm N 17
Slide 18: The Ellinikon – NAV Growth Drivers
The Ellinikon – NAV Growth Drivers Total Project Estimated NAV Creation (€bn)(1) NAV per share (€) Phase 1 (2021-2025) 0.6 – 0.8 3.4 – 4.7 Phases 2026-2035 Present Value in 2025 0.8 – 1.0 4.8 – 5.8 at 8% discount rate Estimated NAV Creation at year end-2025 1.4 – 1.8 8.2 – 10.5 Note: (1) Pre-tax Lev
Slide 19: Phase 1 funding is secured
Phase 1 funding is secured 2021-2025 Outflows Sources of Capital € bn € bn 51% of total Shares Acquisition 0.5 Share Capital Increase (SCI) 0.6 Dec. 2019 consideration 48% of total Infrastructure CAPEX 0.4 budget Public Bond issue 0.2 Jul. 2020 Buildings CAPEX(1) 1.2 Bank Debt(2) 1.0 Mar. 2021 OPEX
Slide 20: Secured Project Proceeds of Phase 1 (2021-2025)
SECURED PROJECT PROCEEDS OF PHASE 1 (2021 – 2025) 20
Slide 21: Phase 1 Secured Project Proceeds amount to €0.7bn
Phase 1 Secured Project Proceeds amount to €0.7bn 2021-2025 Project Contracted Proceeds Total Contracted Proceeds as of 15.07.2021 (€m)(1) by end-2021 Beach Villas 283 300 – 360 Marina Residential Tower 118 300 – 350 Luxury Hotels & Branded Residences 91 91 Retail Park & Offices (Tower, other) 177 3
Slide 22: Contracted Proceeds as of 15.07.2021 - Cash Inflows
Contracted Proceeds as of 15.07.2021 - Cash Inflows (€m) Almost 50% received by 2022 Total 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Beach Villas 283 91 113 50 28 Marina Residential Tower 118 12 12 30 41 24 Luxury Hotels 91 30 18 43 & Branded Residences Retail Park 177 5 26 55 37 54 & Offices (Tower, other) Total €0
Slide 23: Beach Villas
Beach Villas 80% of NSA has already been sold Contracted Proceeds as of 15.07.2021 €283m Initial Plan Sold as of Estimated Initial Plan for end-2021 15.07.2021 sales end-2021 Units 27 5 21 27 NSA (‘000 sqm) 20.9 4.3 16.3 20.9 Average Selling Price(1) 12,500 – 15,200 12,800 - 15,700 17,500 14,500 – 1
Slide 24: Beach Villas – Concept designs
Beach Villas Concept designs from world-class architects 24
Slide 25: Marina Residential Tower
Marina Residential Tower €118m contracted proceeds secured until today Contracted Proceeds as of 15.07.2021 €118m Initial Plan Sold as of Estimated Initial Plan for end-2021 15.07.2021 sales end-2021 NSA (‘000 sqm) 38.5 0 10.7 25.0 Average Selling Price(1) 10,500 – 12,900 n/a 11,000 12,000 – 14,000
Slide 26: Marina Residential Tower (MRT)
Marina Residential Tower (MRT) Concept design from world-class architect 26
Slide 27: Land Plot Sale to Hospitality JV (TEMES/LAMDA)
ΛΕΩ ΦΟΡ ΟΣ Β ΟΥΛ ΙΑΓΜ ΕΝΗ Σ Land Plot Sale to Hospitality JV (TEMES/LAMDA) MIXED USE TOWER (HOTEL & OFFICES) Strategic cooperation with TEMES Signing of the agreement: 27.11.2020 Land Value €91m JV ownership: 70% TEMES / 30% LAMDA E ENU NOS AV EIDO POS BEACH LUXURY HOTEL (5*) & BRANDED RESIDENCES GF
Slide 28: Sale of Office Space & Retail Park Land Plot
Sale of Office Space & Retail Park Land Plot 1 2 3 Contracted Proceeds Offices 40k sqm GFA Retail Park 30k sqm GFA Office Tower as of 15.07.2021 MoU Signed 14.07.2021 MoU Signed 21.06.2021 In advanced €177m (€147m) (€30m) discussions ARGYROUPOLI METRO STATION HELLINIKON METRO STATION 3 VOULIAGMENIS
Slide 29: Project Costs
PROJECT COSTS 29
Slide 30: The Ellinikon – Infrastructure & Metropolitan Park
The Ellinikon – Infrastructure & Metropolitan Park Phase 1 (2021 – 2025) Project Cost per Project (€m) Poseidonos Flyover & Underpass 70 – 85 Metropolitan Park 50 – 60 Road Networks & Mall Underpass 45 – 57 Utilities Networks 44 - 54 Tram 40 – 50 Enabling works (demolitions, site surveys, security
Slide 31: The Ellinikon – Buildings CAPEX
The Ellinikon – Buildings CAPEX Phase 1 (2021 – 2025) GFA Project Cost (1) Project (‘000 sqm) (€ ‘000 per GFA sqm) (€bn) Villas 20.9 6.6 – 8.1 0.1 – 0.2 Marina Residential Tower 44.9 6.0 – 7.4 0.3 Condos 22.5 4.0 – 4.8 0.1 Park-front Residential 38.5 3.0 – 3.6 0.1 – 0.2 Vouliagmenis Mall 130 2.6 – 3
Slide 32: Addressing potential cost overruns in project development
Addressing potential cost overruns in project development Focus on good designs in collaboration with experienced advisors Ongoing assessment of cost estimates with best-in-class advisors and strict internal cost control procedures Accommodate pre-determined range of cost in construction contracts –
Slide 33: Project Construction Timeline
PROJECT CONSTRUCTION TIMELINE 33
Slide 34: Addressing Permitting Issues
Addressing Permitting Issues Council of State has cleared all pending issues related to Master Plan permitting Ellinikon Bureau: new law approved by Parliament in June 2021 establishing one-stop shop for Ellinikon construction and operational permits All construction permits for landmark buildings t
Slide 35: Most of the preparatory Infrastructure Works have been completed
Most of the preparatory Infrastructure Works have been completed Completed 30% demolitions of specific buildings (2020) Remaining required demolitions to be completed in H2 2021 Already commenced other preparatory works (e.g. geotechnical, security, utilities networks, decontamination, archaeologica
Slide 36: Infrastructure Works
Infrastructure Works Phase 1 Construction Timeline (2021 - 2025) Construction Period Project Start End Coastal Front & Airport Site Main Road & Utilities Networks including: • Poseidonos Flyover & Underpass H1 2022 H2 2025 • Mall underpass • Coastal Front Area Road & Utilities Networks Stream Airpor
Slide 37: Key Real Estate Developments
Key Real Estate Developments Phase 1 Construction Timeline (2021 – 2025) Construction Period Project Project Project Start End Marina Residential Tower H2 2022 H2 2025 Vouliagmenis Mall H2 2022 H2 2025 Offices (Tower, other) H2 2022 H2 2025 JVs (Hospitality, MUT) Park-front and Mainstream Residentia
Slide 38: The Ellinikon Malls
THE ELLINIKON MALLS 38
Slide 39: The Ellinikon Malls Key Projections
The Ellinikon Malls Key Projections Performance KPIs (2026) Unit Vouliagmenis Mall Marina Galleria GLA ‘000 sqm 85.5 19.0 Average Effective Rent € per sqm 46 – 56(1) 65 – 75(2) EBITDA €m 41 – 50 13 – 16 Estimated Exit Yield % 6.50% 6.75% Exit Value €m 620 – 760 190 – 235 CAPEX €m 335 – 410 100 – 125
Slide 40: The Ellinikon Malls Benchmarking vs. Existing Malls
The Ellinikon Malls Benchmarking vs. Existing Malls Vouliagmenis Mall The Mall Athens Marina Galleria Golden Hall GLA (sqm) 85.5 58.5 19.0 52.5 Average Effective 46 – 56(1) 41 65 – 75(2) 47(3) Rent (€/sqm) (2026) (2020) (2026) (2020) Average Ticket (€)(4) 25 21 41 40 (2026) (2019) (2026) (2019) Note
Slide 41: Vouliagmenis Mall Market Sounding with Potential Tenants
Vouliagmenis Mall Market Sounding with Potential Tenants Expression of Interest on 60% of GLA 41
Slide 42: Other Projects Phase 1 (2021-2025)
OTHER PROJECTS PHASE 1 (2021 – 2025) 42
Slide 43: Integrated Resort Casino (IRC)
Integrated Resort Casino (IRC) Project Specifications(1) Land: 243,000 sqm Current Business Plan includes: GFA: 168,000 sqm €15m per annum or 5% of GGR for 30 years Implied equivalent to IRC • Min net area: 60k sqm proceeds from other uses: 5-star Hotel €1,800 per sqm GFA • Min capacity: 2,000 beds
Slide 44: The Ellinikon Preparation for Project Execution
THE ELLINIKON PREPARATION FOR PROJECT EXECUTION 44
Slide 45: Our Human Capital has rapidly expanded since Q3 2019
Our Human Capital has rapidly expanded since Q3 2019 SEPTEMBER MAY 2019 2021 218 PERSONNEL NEW HIRES 205 423 ELLINIKON PROJECT New hires highlights Personnel Gender Composition 40% of LAMDA C-1 level 70% of Ellinikon Project C-2 level 70% with studies at MSc or PhD level Women Men 53% 47% Significan
Slide 46: Best Practices in Procurement
Best Practices in Procurement Reinforce transparency Cost minimization and quality optimization Clear segregation between Technical and Financial Evaluation Committees Multiple levels of Approval Award of procurement contracts with transparent and competitive bidding procedures – RfP IT systems upgr
Slide 47: Upgraded / New Systems
Upgraded / New Systems SAP PROJECT MANAGEMENT CRM • System upgrade • Aconex (Project Document Control) • Sales Force increase efficiency • Oracle EPM Primavera (Project Scheduling) ensure transparency • Archer (enterprise Risk Management) maximise internal coordination • Arc GIS (Geographical Inform
Slide 48: Best Practices
Best Practices INTERNAL PROCESSES • Enhanced internal procedures and policies related to: Insurance Risk Management HR ESG & SUSTAINABILITY • Hired external Advisor (EY) to assist in: Corporate Strategy for ESG Master Plan for ESG 48
Slide 49: Supported by best-in-class external Advisors & Consultants
Supported by best-in-class external Advisors & Consultants INFRA PROJECT MANAGER Hill International ARCHITECTS & DESIGNERS MEDIA & MARKETING •Foster & Partners •DBox •AEDAS •Landor •Kengo Kuma & Associates •Newtons •Sasaki •V&O •ARUP •Yard •Burro Happold OTHER •Savills •JLL •Deloitte •EY •PwC 49
Slide 50: 3. Existing Malls
3. EXISTING MALLS 50
Slide 51: Existing Malls Proven Track Record
EXISTING MALLS PROVEN TRACK RECORD 51
Slide 52: Malls in Greece are still a fraction of retail consumption
Malls in Greece are still a fraction of retail consumption Any growth in online consumption will reduce market fragmentation Shopping Centers’ density (GLA sqm per 1,000 people) Norway 857 Estonia 725 Luxembourg 594 Finland 464 Sweden 380 Lithuania 377 Slovenia 377 Netherlands 375 Latvia 349 Croatia
Slide 53: Existing Malls: Proven track record of solid occupancy rates
Existing Malls Proven track record of solid Occupancy rates LAMDA Malls occupancy almost unchanged during the Greek economic crisis 98 98 98 99 99 99 97 96 97 97 LAMDA Malls 89 81 84 75 75 73 74 73 74 74 74 Athens 76 70 73 74 Thessaloniki 72 73 73 73 71 70 66 67 66 Piraeus 66 66 65 2010 2011 2012 20
Slide 54: Existing Malls: Above market growth in tenants' sales
Existing Malls Proven track record of above market growth in Tenants’ Sales Retail Sales (2008=100) 130 120 LAMDA Malls Tenants’ Sales +14% 110 100 Market share gains 90 80 70 -33% 60 Greek Retail Market 50 40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 54
Slide 55: Existing Malls Proven Track Record of EBITDA Growth
Existing Malls Proven Track Record of EBITDA Growth 70 Record EBITDA in 2019 +c.30% from 2009 peak 60 50 40 TOTAL COVID 19 30 20 TMA 10 MC 0 GH -10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Notes: TMA = The Mall Athens MC = Mediterranean Cosmos GH = Golden Hall 55
Slide 56: Existing Malls: Resilience during the pandemic crisis
Existing Malls Resilience during the pandemic crisis High average occupancy rates: approx. 99% High rent collection rates: 96% New leases and contract renewals at pre-COVID period rent levels 56
Slide 57: Existing Malls: Solid Valuation despite headwinds
Existing Malls Solid Valuation(1) despite headwinds due to the pandemic crisis Amounts in €m COVID 19 014 % CAGR 2019-2 892 855 860 840 +4.4 792 788 119 755 735 720 715 712 727 252 112 696 247 250 105 210 176 100 175 173 187 182 184 179 175 189 161 177 178 151 147 181 146 147 153 545 500 475 435 410
Slide 58: Existing Malls: Strong recovery trends since re-opening
Existing Malls Strong recovery trends since re-opening in May 2021 Shopping Malls remain the preferred shopping destination Retailers remain committed to the “Malls’ day-after” • New tenants are joining • Existing ones renew leases at pre-COVID financial terms as well as invest in renovation May and
Slide 59: Existing Malls: Up to 200bps unjustified yield differential
Existing Malls Up to 200bps unjustified yield differential Shopping Center Yields across selected European countries 7,0% 5,5% 5,2% 5,3% 5,0% 5,0% EU Avg** Madrid Lisbon Milan Poland Source: Savills (European Investment Outlook – February 2021) 59
Slide 60: Existing Malls: Yield differential vs. Greek Sovereign Risk
Existing Malls Yield differential vs. Greek Sovereign Risk 9% 8% 7% LAMDA MALLS 7.0% 6% 5% >600bps yield 4% differential 3% 2% 10-year GGB 1% 0.8% 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 March 2021 Source: Bank of Greece (Average 10YR GGB yield for the respective period) LAMDA Malls Yield denotes: Independent v
Slide 61: Existing Malls NAV Growth Drivers
EXISTING MALLS NAV GROWTH DRIVERS 61
Slide 62: Existing Malls: NAV Growth Drivers in 2025
Existing Malls NAV Growth Drivers in 2025 NAV (€m) NAV per share (€) 2019 Actual 2025 Projected LD share(1) LD share(1) Yield Compression Yield 7%(2) 6% 120 0.7 Organic Growth – Valuation effect EBITDA (€m) 61(3) 63 25 0.1 Organic Growth – Cash effect Cash (€M) 120 0.7 Total 265 1.5 Notes: (1) LAMDA
Slide 63: Existing Malls: Rental Income Growth Drivers
Existing Malls Rental Income Growth Drivers Contractual rent increase Inflation adjusted rents annually: Greek CPI plus a margin of 1.5% to 2.0%(1) Turnover rent growth Contracts with turnover rent mechanism, based on modest sales growth • Advertising and promotional activities Other income • Parkin
Slide 64: Unlock value from “Malls Co” IPO
Unlock value from “Malls Co” IPO STRATEGY LAMDA’s target participation in the Malls Portfolio to drop to 35% • current stake: 85% (blended) • 100% in The Mall Athens, 68% in each of Golden Hall and Med. Cosmos Include Ellinikon Malls in the perimeter of the Malls Portfolio Take advantage of listed R
Slide 65: Share Price Performance
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE 65
Slide 66: LAMDA Share Price Performance
LAMDA Share Price Performance 2015 – 2021*: 87% return LAMDA +87% ATHEX +38% LARGE CAP +15% Source: Athens Exchange (ATHEX) Daily Bulletin Note: * Period from 31.12.2015 until 09.07.2021 (Rebased to 100 = 31.12.2015) 66
Slide 67: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by LAMDA Development S.A. (the “Company”). The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accura
Slide 68: A New Era for Greece
A NEW ERA FOR GREECE NS ZELLINIKON