Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Technical Presentation (June 2025)
156 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's technical presentation, Jun 27, 2025
Slide 1: Presentation to Elia stakeholders – 27th June 2025
Presentation to Elia stakeholders – 27th June 2025
Slide 2: Embargo and publication notice for the study
• This presentation is given as a primeur to the Users Group & stakeholders • A press conference will be held in the afternoon • We thereforeAdequacy kindly& ask Flexibility study 2026-36 you to not share any information regarding the study before 4PM this afternoon. • A printed version of the repor
Slide 3: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h30 - 9h40] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h40 - 10h20] ➢ Adequacy results [10h20 - 10h50] ➢ Break 10min ➢ Economic viability assessment [11h00 - 11h20] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h20 - 11h50] ➢ Other
Slide 4: 5th edition of the Adequacy and Flexibility study for Belgium
5th edition of the Adequacy and Flexibility study for Belgium April 2016 June 2019 June 2021 June 2023 June 2025 2017-2027 2020-2030 2022-2032 2024-2034 2026-2036 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36 4
Slide 5: The study followed a very extensive stakeholder involvement process
The study followed a very extensive stakeholder involvement process (including a public consultation on methodology and data) • Bi-annual legal task • Extensive consultation with stakeholders on methodology, data and scenarios • Follows European regulation on the matter • Study takes almost a year t
Slide 6: 3 main topics related to adequacy, flexibility and economics
This study covers 3 main topics related to adequacy, flexibility and economics 6 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 7: We looked 10 years ahead, simulating 28 countries
We looked 10 years ahead, covering the most important events that will affect the electricity system in the future, simulating 28 countries 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Main scenarios analysed for adequacy Detailed analysis and sensitivities for adequacy, economics and shor
Slide 8: Three scenarios are assessed, together with additional sensitivities
Three scenarios are assessed, together with additional sensitivities Current commitments & ambitions (CC) Announced targets and policies and official projections (Bureau du Plan, NECP, latest government agreements, industry electrification plans). Constrained transition (CT) • A novelty: Three scena
Slide 9: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h30 - 9h40] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h40 - 10h20] ➢ Adequacy results [10h20 - 10h50] ➢ Break 10min ➢ Economic viability assessment [11h00 - 11h20] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h20 - 11h50] ➢ Other
Slide 10: Demand & flexibility / Supply & storage
Demand & flexibility Supply & storage 10 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 11: Electricity demand reviewed since AdeqFlex’23, with 3 scenarios
Electricity demand has been reviewed since AdeqFlex’23, with 3 scenarios Including grid losses and electrolysers. Total consumption assumed for the calendar year - normalised 11 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 12: Electricity load decomposed in components with flexibility assumptions
The electricity load is decomposed in 6 components with associated assumptions on flexibility Electricity load components Associated flexibility considered Existing usages Additional electrification 12 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 13: Electricity demand increase split amongst different components
Electricity demand increase split amongst different components Increase compared to 2024 in TWh: TWh 2030 2035 123.8 120 Industry 105.5 +17.7 82.1 Data Centres 80 Transport +5.2 +10.5 40 Heating +2.5 +12.9 Existing + +7.5 +2.7 losses +1.5 +1.5 +3.0 0 2025 2030 2035 This illustration is for Current C
Slide 14: Expected load increase in industry and data centres
Expected load increase in industry and data centres is to be considered with Sensitivities associated flexibility, on top of existing 1.7 GW market response High flex. Low flex. MW Lower electrification Brut increase High data centre 2,970 3000 45% flex Power-to- Heat* 2000 1,730 Net increase 1,720
Slide 15: Lower industry electrification uptake compared to AdeqFlex’23
Compared to AdeqFlex’23, lower industry electrification uptake while data centres increase is confirmed. Less flexibility is assumed Electrification uptake in industry and associated flexibility [GW] Brut AdeqFlex ’23 Brut 3.3 GW 70% flex 2.5 GW 45% flex AdeqFlex ‘25 1.7 GW Net Net Industry Data cen
Slide 16: BEV uptake continued strongly in Belgium
BEV uptake continued strongly in Belgium, despite slowdown in EU-27 BEV Share of new passenger car registrations in Belgium and the EU – 4 quarterly moving average % 35 Belgium 30 25 Belgium – AdeqFlex’23 20 15 EU-27 10 5 0 16 Source: ACEA, Febiac Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 17: Transport load increase split in various segments
For transport, the load increase is split in various segments Sensitivities Passenger cars are expected to further electrify in the short term, followed by vans, trucks and busses Low EV High EV Road transport consumption [TWh] Low flex TWh High flex 15 14.5 Bus Trucks 9.1 Vans 10 Private cars >50%
Slide 18: Multitude of profiles designed to capture EV charging
Multitude of profiles designed to capture EV charging Do I allow Where do I charge ? How do I charge ? Regional tariff Do I have PV ? How ? V2G ? V1 PV V2 Netting PV & capacity tariff Capacity (CAPA) V1 no PV Capacity tariff Local/Tariff V2 V1 PV V2 Netting PV & ToU Time of Use (ToU) V1 no PV ToU Ho
Slide 19: Home charging profiles, for Current Commitments
Home charging profiles, for Current Commitments Natural profile Locally optimized Market dispatch 12 without PV at home with PV at home 12 10 % of daily 8 8 Sunny 6 energy needs day 4 4 12 Charge as you plug 2 0 0 8 0 6 12 18 24 0 6 12 18 24 0 6 12 18 24 4 If baseload 12 P25 – P75 0 8 0 6 12 18 24 A
Slide 20: EV projections reviewed compared to AF23
EV projections been reviewed compared to AF23 Larger fleet, lower market flex Million AdeqFlex’23 AdeqFlex ‘25 4 3.4 M in ‘35 3 15% 2.1 M in ‘30 1.9 M in ‘30 Market flex 2 35% 10% 20% 55% Local and tariff flex 45% 1 50% 55% 45% 30% 30% 10% Natural 0 ‘25 ‘30 ‘35 ‘25 ‘30 ‘35 • Electrification of trans
Slide 21: Heat pump uptake slowed down in 2024
Heat pump uptake slowed down in 2024, compared to the exceptional 2023 year. Fossil fuel boilers sales representing over 85% of the sales Sales of new heating appliances in Belgium … Sales of Air-Air heat pumps* Thousands 300 250 Oil boiler HP – Air-Air 200 150 Gas boiler 100 135 146 123 125 127 50
Slide 22: Heat pump sales increased in the past, needed to decarbonise
HP sales increased in the past, as needed to decarbonise building sector Sensitivities Heat pump type impact consumption in different proportion Slower heating elec. Heat pump consumption [TWh] Faster heating elec. Low flex Share of primary heating appliances High flex Residential 9% 15% 22% TWh Ter
Slide 23: +15 sensitivities on load and flex were performed
Load sensitivity To tackle all uncertainties, Flex sensitivity +15 sensitivities on load and flex were performed Other sensitivities combine several of the ones hereunder (e.g., all assets having higher or lower flex) 23 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 24: Demand & flexibility / Supply & storage
Demand & flexibility Supply & storage 24 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 25: RES figures follow authorities ambitions for Current Commitments
RES figures follows authorities ambitions for the Current Commitment scenario Solar Onshore wind 21 – 34 GWp by 2035 4.5 – 7.6 GW by 2035 GWp +0.5 +1.4 +2 GWp/y GW +0.2 +0.4 GW/y GW/y GW/y GW/y 7.6 40 8 33.6 6 30 6 AdeqFlex’23 22.5 4.5 20.9 20 16.5 4 3.4 +1 GWp/y +0.1 GW/y 11 10 AdeqFlex’23 2 0 0 20
Slide 26: Delay in offshore development and Nautilus
Compared to AdeqFlex’23, delay in offshore development and Nautilus (previously for 2030). Impact of additional North-Sea interconnector assessed. Nautilus (2030) Triton Link (2032) Sensitivities Delay PEZ I and PEZ II 5.8 GW Nautilus and PEZ III in 2030 Sensitivities Additional NS IC AdeqFlex’23 3
Slide 27: Thermal fleet assumptions
The thermal fleet assumes all existing units to remain in the system but subject to an economic viability assessment. D4/T3 until end 2035 with sensitivities on additional extensions in time and amount Sensitivities T1 ext. D1/D2 ext. D4/T3 ext. High nuclear FO Low TJ & OCGT Low CHP Adequacy & Flexi
Slide 28: Higher volume of small-scale and large-scale batteries
Higher volume of small-scale and large-scale batteries compared to previous study Small-scale batteries GW 3 2.4 + 0.2 GW/yr Up 2.4 GW of 2 1.4 + 0.1 GW/yr small-scale batteries by 2035 1 0.7 + 0.03 GW/yr 1.0 AdeqFlex’23 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 Large-scale batteries GW 3 Additional batteries considere
Slide 29: Derated additional new capacity contracted under the CRM
About 900 MW of derated additional new capacity contracted under the CRM compared to AdeqFlex’23 New storage and thermal capacity [derated GW] 2.6 2.3 AdeqFlex’25 2.0 +0.9 (+ new batteries + OCGT extension) +0.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 AdeqFlex’23 (2 new CCGTs + new batteries) 2026 2027 2028 29 Adequacy & Flexi
Slide 30: 3 scenarios for Europe were constructed
3 SCENARIOS for Europe were constructed 30 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 31: European scenario framework based on ERAA24 dataset
The European scenario framework of this study is based on the ERAA24 dataset complemented with more recent data (if available) and follows the ERAA methodology Only 1 representative risk is chosen for the EU- SAFE scenario 31 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 32: Electricity demand expected to grow in all European countries
Electricity demand is expected to grow in all European countries 32 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 33: Europe has massive RES ambitions
Europe has massive RES ambitions Solar Onshore wind Offshore wind 1000 – 1500 GW by 2035 320 – 500 GW by 2035 190 – 250 GW by 2035 GW GW GW 1,800 +13 +46 600 300 +2 GW/y GW/y 1560 +11.5 +25 500 GW/y 250 GW/y GW/y +110 +22 1,200 GW/y 400 200 GW/y 190 320 960 230 +10 600 +55 200 100 GW/y GW/y 3 yrs 34
Slide 34: Coal capacity decreases while nuclear stabilizes
While coal capacity is expected to drastically decrease with -70 GW by 2030, nuclear capacity stabilizes Coal Nuclear -4 -18 -0.5 -1 GW GW/y GW/y GW GW/y GW/y 200 190 150 172 -1 GW/y +1 GW/y 146 Others 115 115 110 105 105 100 100 Others ES 100 UK SE 100 -70 GW UK IT 58 FR PL -4 50 GW/y 33 DE 14 0 0
Slide 35: Additional capacity needed in Europe
Additional capacity is needed to cope with expected decreasing thermal fleet and increasing demand in Europe. Net changes in capacity Thermal capacity GW +80 GW by 2036 80 GW +35 GW 60 80 by 2036 40 60 Thermal capacity Capacity 8 17 25 35 added added 20 40 Coal 0 20 Oil + Other NRES Nuclear Gas 2035
Slide 36: French nuclear generation follows RTE’s base case
French nuclear generation follows RTE’s base case for the EU-BASE scenarios Nuclear production in France MAX Highest range from RTE (≈400 TWh) EU-BASE Base case from RTE (≈ 360 TWh) Low variant from RTE EU-SAFE = Base case + 4 units unavail. (≈ 330 TWh)) MIN Lowest range from RTE (≈280 TWh) 36 RTE:
Slide 37: Assumptions regarding the grid and cross-border exchange capacities
Sia Assumptions regarding the grid and cross-border exchange capacities
Slide 38: Flow-based modelled for the Central CCR region
Flow-based is modelled for the Central CCR region and assumptions capture the expected grid infrastructure evolutions Sensitivities XB-AvailCapa EU-HydroLow XB-Delayed NO-not2EU UK-not2EU 38 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 39: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
39 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 40: Fossil fuel prices decline, CO2 prices increase
Fossil fuel prices assumed to decline, and CO2 prices to increase Based on the WEO25 from the IEA CH4 €/MWh Price of Methane Sensitivities 200 High gas prices 150 100 40 50 50 19 18 High 10 Central (WEO) 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 CO2 €/tCO2 Price of CO2 200 152 WEO: World Energy Outlook 150 Central
Slide 41: More economic assumptions can be found in the report
More economic assumptions and information can be found in the report For existing and new capacity: Sensitivities - CAPEX - FOM Gas HIGH CAPEX - VOM Bat. LOW CAPEX - Hurdle rates - Construction times Costs assumptions for coal, nuclear and lignite Ancillary services revenues Revenues from heat and s
Slide 42: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h30 - 9h40] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h40 - 10h20] ➢ Adequacy results [10h20 - 10h50] ➢ Break 10min ➢ Economic viability assessment [11h00 - 11h20] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h20 - 11h50] ➢ Other
Slide 43: Hourly simulations on several hundreds of Monte-Carlo years
The economic dispatch methodology used is in line with the ERAA methodology. Hourly simulations are performed on several hundreds of ‘Monte-Carlo’ years. • The economic dispatch methodology is fully compliant with the ERAA methodology • Simulation performed assuming a.o. perfect weekly foresight and
Slide 44: Monte-Carlo years simulated to reach convergence
For each scenario/sensitivity, a large amount of Monte-Carlo years are simulated in order to reach convergence of the relevant indicators • The amount of Monte Carlo years simulated is based on a convergence criterion • The currently set reliability standard for Belgium is used = 3 hours of Loss of
Slide 45: Iterative process to determine need or margin for Belgium
An iterative process is performed to determine the need or the margin for Belgium to meet the adequacy criteria SoS level defined for each country 45 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 46: Adequacy assessment determines the GAP, EVA the non-viable GAP
The adequacy assessment aims to determine the GAP while the EVA aims to calculate the non viable GAP GAP = additional capacity 100% available needed 46 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 47: Evolution in European capacity mix explains adequacy results
Significant evolution in the European capacity mix explains the evolution of adequacy results between AdeqFlex’23 and AdeqFlex’25 Consumption Batteries in Europe (BE & neighbours) [GW] 2200 200 [TWh] 2000 150 1800 1600 100 2 years delay 1400 +20 GW 50 1200 1000 0 2028 2032 2036 2028 2032 2036 AdeqFl
Slide 48: Offshore delays and coal phase-out in Germany
Significant evolution in the European capacity mix explains the evolution of adequacy results between AdeqFlex’23 and AdeqFlex’25 Offshore delays Coal phase-out in Germany 30 30 AF25 [GW] [GW] 25 25 20 20 +12.8 GW AF23 15 15 10 -12 GW 10 5 5 0 0 2028 2032 2036 2028 2032 2036 AdeqFlex ‘23 Adequacy &
Slide 49: Margin before 2030, GAP diverges after 2030
Before 2030, margin observed in all scenarios in Belgium and neighbouring countries. The GAP diverges after 2030 between the 3 storylines. GW 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 49 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 50: Enough capacity for the next 3 winters
For the next 3 winters, Belgium is expected to have enough capacity to comply with its reliability standard. In 2028-29, a GAP is observed in the EU-SAFE CC & PP scenarios. 50 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 51: Need for new capacity from 2030 onwards
For the period 2029-34, a need for new capacity is expected from 2030 onwards for all EU-SAFE scenarios. 51 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 52: Risks abroad impacting Belgium’s security of supply
Different risks abroad impacting Belgium’s security of supply have been assessed. The chosen representative sensitivity for the EU-SAFE is the FR-NUC4. GW Assessed based on the EU-BASE-CC scenario 52 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 53: Unlocking higher flexibility can decrease the GAP
Storylines already includes a significant share of flexibility from EV/HP. Unlocking higher flexibility can decrease the GAP by 1,000 MW in 2036. MW 1000 +10% EV Natural profile +20% HP Natural profile Additional capacity required if no or less residential and +5% EV Natural profile tertiary assets
Slide 54: Flexibility from industry integrated in the scenarios
A significant share of flexibility from industry is already integrated in the scenarios. 0% Flex 15% Flex +300 45% Flex 70% Flex 54 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 55: Additional offshore and North Sea Interconnector
Additional offshore and North Sea Interconnector can contribute to the decrease of the need for new capacities. 55 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 56: Increasing storage leads to lower deratings
Increasing storage/flex capacities in the system lead to lower deratings Additional 4-hour battery nominal +8,300 capacity in MW that would be required to fill the entire GAP in EU-SAFE-CC Effective contribution limited to 25% when adding an +3,900 additional 8,300 MW +2,200 GAP identified in the EU
Slide 57: New capacity requirements from 2028
The nuclear extension and CRM has developed enough capacities for the coming three years however new requirements emerge from 2028 If slower flexibility uptake if assumed, additional capacity needs to be found New capacity requirements (GAP) assuming all existing capacity remain in the EU-SAFE scena
Slide 58: Need for new capacity increases for 2035-36
For the period 2035-36, the identified need for new capacity significantly increase. Several options can be activated inside the CRM framework. 58 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 59: Other structural options outside the CRM framework
Other structural options may be activated outside of the CRM framework. period 2035-36 59 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 60: Choices made to fill the identified GAP
For next sections, some choices were made in order to fill the identified GAP but complemented with sensitivities T3/D4 extension after 2035 + Nautilus commissioning from 2035 in CC and PP scenarios + AdeqFlex'25
Slide 61: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h30 - 9h40] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h40 - 10h20] ➢ Adequacy results [10h20 - 10h50] ➢ Break 10min ➢ Economic viability assessment [11h00 - 11h20] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h20 - 11h50] ➢ Other
Slide 62: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h30 - 9h40] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h40 - 10h20] ➢ Adequacy results [10h20 - 10h50] ➢ Break 10min ➢ Economic viability assessment [11h00 - 11h20] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h20 - 11h50] ➢ Other
Slide 63: Economic viability assessment (EVA)
Economic viability assessment (EVA) What? Existing or new capacity economically viable? Why? Is a CRM necessary? Simulate future market revenues How? Calculate IRR Compare with hurdle rate 63 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 64: Adequacy → Economic viability assessment
Adequacy → Economic viability assessment The adequacy assessment determines the GAP while the EVA aims to calculate the non viable GAP 64 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 65: Scope of the EVA – existing units
Scope of the EVA – existing units Which units are subject of the economic assessment? Initial capacity Capacity type In the EVA? (as of 2026, nominal) CCGTs (incl CCGT-CHP) 6.5 GW Existing or Only units not under CRM contract contracted OCGTs 0.9 GW YES thermal and CHPs without a must-run TJs (peake
Slide 66: Scope of the EVA – new units
Scope of the EVA – new units Which units are subject of the economic assessment? Initial capacity Capacity type In the EVA? (as of 2026, nominal) CCGT New YES CH4 (with and without CCS) and H2 potential on OCGT top of Start at With 3 must-run operation modes scenario CHP YES 0 GW based DSR YES Poten
Slide 67: EVA methodology
EVA methodology Following an iterative approach an EVA equilibrium is found CAPEX FOM Ancillary 4 services Cost assumptions 2026 2028 IRR > hurdle rate 2030 1 2 2034 2032 2036 3 5 6 ? 7 Initial Economic Process Calculate IRR Check economic (Des)investment scenario dispatch output over lifetime viabi
Slide 68: EU-BASE-CC results with no CRM in Belgium
Results from the EU-BASE-CC scenario with no CRM in Belgium A large number of units leaving the market New economically Existing non-viable Resulting non-viable GAP viable capacity LOLE (h) EENS (GWh) capacity (MW, nominal) (MW, derated) (MW) 2026 -1,650 0 -600 2.3 1.6 2028 - 1,650 0 500 3.4 3.0 203
Slide 69: EU-SAFE-CC results with no CRM in Belgium
Results from the EU-SAFE-CC scenario with no CRM in Belgium Less units are non-viable in an EU-SAFE scenario, however a GAP still remains New economically Existing non-viable Resulting non-viable GAP viable capacity LOLE (h) EENS (GWh) capacity (MW, nominal) (MW, derated) (MW) 2026 -1,500 0 900 3.7
Slide 70: EU-BASE-CC results with no CRM in Europe
Results from the EU-BASE-CC scenario with no CRM in Europe A large number of units leaving the market GWd 100 Mix of added capacity in 2036 compared New capacity added to the to EU-BASE-CC model by the EVA 50 Flexibility 0 CCGT -16 -14 -13 -17 -24 -30 Peaker -50 Existing capacity removed from the mo
Slide 71: How is the EVA impacted by changes in the market?
In a European constrained In a European prosumer transition scenario power scenario How is the EVA impacted by changes in Changes in gas Higher or lower consumer the market? prices? flexibility in Belgium? Additional baseload in the system (e.g. extension of 71 Tihange 1) Adequacy & Flexibility stud
Slide 72: EVA results for different scenarios in 2036
Results of the EVA for different scenarios in 2036 In each scenario existing capacity leaves the market 7,500 MW Installed capacity of existing OCGT/CCGT/TJ units in Belgium (incl CHP) With additional baseload an increased amount of existing 2,400 MW capacity leaves the market 1,500 MW 1,600 MW 1,00
Slide 73: How about storage technologies?
All batteries How about storage technologies? installed are 4h- batteries In a BAT+ scenario more storage is viable Installed battery capacity on top of the amount currently existing and contracted (1,500 MW) for a BAT+ scenario MW nominal In none of the scenario's 1500 batteries fulfil the GAP CC W
Slide 74: Consistent CRM need across scenarios
Even with high prices or added baseload (e.g., Without a CRM, Belgium faces a Tihange 1), the energy-only market fails to deliver persistent and growing non-viable sufficient investment signals. capacity gap - up to 3,900 MWd by 2036 Consistent CRM need Non-viable GAP across scenarios A market-wide
Slide 75: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h30 - 9h40] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h40 - 10h20] ➢ Adequacy results [10h20 - 10h50] ➢ Break 10min ➢ Economic viability assessment [11h00 - 11h20] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h20 - 11h50] ➢ Other
Slide 76: Flexibility: what are we talking about
Flexibility : what are we talking about … “The extent to which a power system can modify electricity production or consumption in response to variability, expected or otherwise” - International Energy Agency Adequacy study Flexibility Study The adequacy study investigates the The flexibility study i
Slide 77: Ability to manage (un)expected variations
A focus on the ability to manage (un)expected variations • Elia’s economic dispatch model is based on perfect forecasts and hourly resolutions. • The short-term flexibility needs studies the capability to cover fast and unexpected variations caused by forecast errors of generation and demand, as wel
Slide 78: Input data and assumptions part of public consultation
Input data and assumptions has been part of the public consultation Input data* Scenario selection Prediction data Elia’s forecast observations 2023-2024 Expected forecast improvements Onshore wind Offshore wind Demand Decentral Solar must-run Forced outage characteristics ENTSO-E observations 2015-
Slide 79: Increasing flexibility needs towards 2036
Latest analyses re-confirm increasing flexibility needs towards 2036 driven by increasing renewable capacity ➢ The results represent the required capacity to manage prediction errors of renewable capacity in intra-day and real-time ➢ The flexibility needs presented have to be managed by the market (
Slide 80: Installed capacity shows sufficient flexibility for short-term needs
Analyses of installed capacity expected show sufficient flexibility to deal with short-term needs This conclusion holds at least if : Consumer flexibility • unlocking the existing flexibility in the system for participation in short-term markets Existing and planned battery storage projects • adequa
Slide 81: Available flexibility means determined from simulated schedules
Available flexibility means are determined based on simulated schedules of individual and aggregated generation, storage and demand response units • This allows to determine total available flexibility for each hour and Monte Carlo simulation : • The economic dispatch model provides the schedule of
Slide 82: Assessment of flexibility means based on technology specifications
The assessment of available flexibility means is to large extent based technology specifications • Based on information from literature, consultations and expert views • Consulted and updated every study based on latest available information • Two main improvements on consumer flexibility • Integrat
Slide 83: Flexibility driven by batteries and consumer flexibility
Availability of flexibility towards 2036 is largely driven by batteries and consumer flexibility Average contribution to upward fast flexibility MW Average contribution to upward fast flexibility MW 12000 thermal 12000 End-user flexibility is pre- thermal battery 9779 dominantly driven by electric 1
Slide 84: Coverage of flexibility needs by available flexibility
The coverage represents the percentage of time the flexibility needs are adequately covered by available flexibility in the system Uncovered needs will require measures to ensure ability to deal with large forecast errors or outages: ➢ ➢ ➢ 84 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 85: Coverage of upward flexibility needs expected to increase
The coverage of upward flexibility needs is expected to increase in high storage scenarios Reservations of flexibility through reserves remain important, at least • Ramping needs are covered, already as from 2026 until 2032 • At least when including contributions of cross-border flexibility (though
Slide 86: Coverage of downward flexibility needs expected to increase
Similarly, the coverage of downward flexibility needs is expected to increase in high storage scenarios Covering these periods will require additional measures • Ramping needs are covered, already as from 2026 • Fast flexibility coverage gradually increase over time with same acceleration as from 20
Slide 87: Sensitivities on batteries and end-user flexibility
Sensitivities show that future contributions of batteries and end- user flexibility are found to increase coverage levels ➢ Higher coverage levels reduces the needs for reserve capacity or additional measures to be taken by Elia ➢ The contribution of end-user flexibility needs to be unlocked to cove
Slide 88: Uncovered flexibility needs during incompressibility risk periods
Elia identifies a large amount of uncovered flexibility needs during incompressibility risk periods • Selected as periods with prices < 5 EUR/MWh and 10% lowest residual load • Expresses the amount of hours which face uncovered flexibility needs • Periods at risk increase from 300 (in 2026) towards
Slide 89: Additional flexibility from decentralized assets required
Additional flexibility from decentralized assets is required to keep the system in balance ➢ From 300 (in 2026) towards 300-600 hours (in 2036) with risks of not covering all flexibility needs* ➢ Additional 1,8 GW (in 2026) to 2,5 GW (in 2030) of consumer flexibility and decentral PV** flexibility i
Slide 90: Value of unlocking consumer flexibility
Value of unlocking consumer flexibility • System operation benefits • End user benefits
Slide 91: System gain calculations updated
System gain calculations are updated based on new simulations of the adequacy needs and reserve capacity needs REDUCTION OF THE ADEQUACY NEEDS EXPECTED UPWARD mFRR COMPARED TO LOW FLEX SCENARIO [MW] PROCUREMENTS [MW] ➢ High flex scenarios increase available flexibility in the system and therefore ➢
Slide 92: 350–500 M€/year of system costs potentially saved in 2036
Between 350 and 500 M€/year of system operation costs be potentially saved in 2036 if unlocking consumer flexibility ➢ An update of the value assessment of flex re-confirmed the value of developing consumer flexibility ➢ Observations yet show that the development still lags behind (cf. slow uptake o
Slide 93: End user benefits – methodology
End user benefits – methodology To assess the benefits for an end user different pricing options are compared Different assets Different pricing options Hourly consumption c€/kWh price PV panels Hourly injection price Average consumption price Electric vehicles Average injection 0 h price Heat pumps
Slide 94: End user benefits – EV
End user benefits – EV Optimising EV charging can bring around 170 to 340 €/year in 2036 without PV I have an electric vehicle but no PV, I can save per year (in €/year): By benefitting from energy Optimise & arbitrage the benefits can ‘vehicle to grid’ 170 to 220 260 to 340 be increased even more B
Slide 95: End user benefits – EV with PV
End user benefits – EV Optimising EV charging can bring around 170 to 530 €/year in 2036 with PV I have an electric vehicle but no PV, I have an electric vehicle and PV, I can save per year (in €/year): I can save per year (in €/year): Optimise & 170 to 220 260 to 340 Installing PV ‘vehicle to 170 t
Slide 96: End-users can benefit from making devices flexible
End-users can benefit from making their production and consumption devices flexible and also contributing to cover the flexibility needs Benefits from optimising my devices based on Assumption a capacity tariff and a dynamic contract Source of the benefit No injection when Benefits from avoiding neg
Slide 97: Agenda
AGENDA (and indicative timings) ➢ Regulatory framework and [9h30 - 9h40] stakeholder interaction ➢ Scenario framework and assumptions [9h40 - 10h20] ➢ Adequacy results [10h20 - 10h50] ➢ Break 10min ➢ Economic viability assessment [11h00 - 11h20] ➢ Flexibility needs and means [11h20 - 11h50] ➢ Other
Slide 98: Share of RES in European electricity system to increase
The share of RES in the European electricity system is expected to significantly increase over time 47 % RES in 2024 98 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 99: Belgian electricity mix: past and future
Belgian electricity mix: past and future Historical Simulated [TWh] 31 % RES in 2024 Offshore wind Onshore wind PV Coal Biomass Oil Gas Nuclear 99 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 100: Evolution of RES, imports and gas-fired generation
Evolution of RES, imports and gas-fired generation in shares of the total electricity demand Ranges across simulated scenarios Renewable share [%] Net import share [%] Gas-fired share [%] 100% 44-54 31 37-41 28-36 12-19 22-29 18 16-22 12 2024 2030 2036 2024 2030 2036 2024 2030 2036 *Shares expressed
Slide 101: Rising renewables drive deeper residual demand
Rising renewables drive deeper and more volatile residual demand Expected evolution of the average daily residual demand* during week-ends assuming no generation modulation and no market consumption flexibility 11 GW 13 GW 18 GW 22 GW GW 2024 2028 2032 2036 10 8 6 4 2 p90 0 Mean 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18
Slide 102: Wholesale average yearly prices across scenarios
Resulting wholesale average yearly prices across scenarios 102 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 103: Amount of low wholesale prices to increase
Amount of low wholesale prices expected to further increase Amount of hours per year with simulated prices under 5 €/MWh across different scenarios and years for Belgium hours Historical range Range from simulations 3,000 Range from 2,000 weather conditions 1,000 Max Average Min 0 2022-24 2028 2032
Slide 104: Average day prices cheaper than night prices
Average day prices becoming cheaper that night prices during the week Relative difference of weekly day and night prices compared to the average daily baseload price [%] Historical Simulated 30 25 Week 19h-7h (night) 20 15 Night price 10 Day price higher higher than day than night 5 Average baseload
Slide 105: Gas-fired units less often price-setting
Gas-fired units are expected to be less and less the unit setting the price of electricity Which technology sets the electricity price ? % marginal in 2036 100% 4% Peakers 90% 23% Gas 80% 70% > 50% 60% 46% Other technologies* 50% 40% 30% 30% 7% Nuclear 20% 20% RES 10% 0% 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 203
Slide 106: Decreasing running hours for existing CCGTs
Decreasing amount of hours for existing CCGTs Running hours of existing CCGTs hours Most efficient CCGT Recent CCGT Old CCGT 6,000 Percentile 90 Mean 5,000 Percentile 10 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 106 Adequacy & Flexibility st
Slide 107: Electrification brings large CO2 reductions
Electrification in transport, industry and heating brings large CO2 reductions (all other things kept equal) 107 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 108: Highest electrification scenarios achieve biggest reductions
Scenarios with the highest degree of electrification and RES uptake achieves the biggest reductions in fossil fuel demand, expenditure and emissions
Slide 109: Main messages
ia Main messages
Slide 110: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
1 ➢ ➢ ➢ 110 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 111: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
2 ➢ ➢ ➢ 111 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 112: Annual derated GAP: Evolution and filling options
Annual derated GAP: Evolution and filling options
Slide 113: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
3 ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ 113 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 114: Enablers to be developed jointly to capture end-user benefit
The following enablers should be jointly developed by grid operators, authorities and market players to capture the benefit for the end user From Awareness to Benefit Inform / educate Flex ready infrastructure Clear and transparent price ▪ Educate end consumers on ▪ Roll out of digital meters ▪ Comm
Slide 115: AdeqFlex’25 report content and appendices
AdeqFlex’25 is a state-of-the-art study assessing the capacity requirements of the Belgian system both for adequacy & flexibility Main report content Appendices and additional data • Executive summary • Appendices on the methodology • Introduction • Appendices on the scenarios & data • Methodology •
Slide 116: Thank you for your attention!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! AdeqFlex'25
Slide 117: Back up slides
Sia BACK UP SLIDES
Slide 118: Electricity consumption compared to other studies
Electricity consumption when compared to other studies REACTORS 140 IMPORTS ROTORS PlanBureau (2024) 120 100 109.6 108.3 105.5 104.0 103.5 103.7 80 95.4 60 20 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Prosumer Power Current Commitments Constrained Transition Including grid losses and electrolysers 2040 value
Slide 119: +15 sensitivities on load and flex were performed
Load sensitivity To tackle all uncertainties, +15 sensitivities on load and flex were performed Flex sensitivity Other sensitivities combine several of the ones hereunder (e.g., all assets having higher or lower flex) 119 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 120: Existing market response
Existing Market response GW 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,8 2,0 2,0 25 EUR/kW 1,0 Existing DSR / 1,7 1,7 1,7 market response 1,4 0,0 2020 2025 2030 2035 Prosumer Power Current Commitments Constrained Transition *1732 MW includes estimation from N-Side (1569 MW) - TJ volume (140 MW) + provision of balancing (303MW)
Slide 121: Smart meter rollout (millions)
Millions 2.0 1.5 1.5 11 1.0 1.0 3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 Prosumer Power Current Commitments Constrained Transition Source: VREG / CREG for historical data. Numbers assumed at the end of the year. Concern both the residential and tertiary sector
Slide 122: O:\ESM\IPL\SMA\B_Scenarios_Input_data\02_Historical_Data\Macro_econ\Capacity_util_be.xlsx
Source: NBB O:\ESM\IPL\SMA\B_Scenarios_Input_data\02_Historical_Data\Macro_econ\Capacity_util_be.xlsx
Slide 123: Industrial electricity demand hit during COVID-19 and energy crises
Industrial electricity demand was hit the hardest during the COVID-19 and energy crises Yearly energy demand per sector in Belgium: 2018-2023 TWh 124 124 1. 126 Ml Other Gi Electricity 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Residential & Tertiary In
Slide 124: Impact of sufficiency and circularity
TOTAL [TWh] -2.8 -3.0 Lower use of appliances -1.2 -1.2 Decrease hot water needs -0.9 -0.9 Decrease heating setpoint by 2°C -0.6 -0.6 Smaller residential area per person / -0.2 Turn off the lights -0.1 -0.1 TOTAL [TWh] -0.6 -2.0 Lower speed limits on highways (by 10 km/h) -0.6 -0.6 Size of cars redu
Slide 125: Load trajectory for the Sufficiency sensitivity
125 Load trajectory for the Sufficiency sensitivity & Current Commitments scenario TWh Current Commitments Sufficiency - system change
Slide 126: Industry and data centres electrification reviewed per sector
Industry and data centres electrification critically reviewed for each sector based on reviewed customers input Collection of customers most ambitious plans (Not assessed for Adequacy) Sensitivities Low industry elec. Source: Load management performed by Elia, scenario reviewed with expert view per
Slide 127: Plans of electrification and growth differ per sector
Plans of electrification and growth differ per sectors Example given for Current Commitments scenario 22.9 Electrolysers Non-ferrous metals Agriculture 13.1 Food Non-Metallic Refineries Other Steel 70% of the Chemical 0.9 increase Data centres
Slide 128: Different assumptions used in different scenarios
Different assumptions are used in different scenario Low: sensitivity on current Commitments Central: Used in the scenarios (Cosntrained Transition, Current Commitments and Prosumer Power) 128 High: Used as a sensitivity on Current Commitments. Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 129: Data centre assumptions slightly more conservative than BCG
Assumptions on data centers are slightly more conservative Compared to a recent BCG study Range from BCG BCG - High Case 16 15,5 (used as sensitivity) 12 BCG - Mid Case 9,5 7,8 = 8 8,4 6,6 6,4 Sensitivities 5,8 High data centre 4 3,2 4,7 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: BCG (2025)
Slide 130: Trajectories for each EV segment and scenario
Different trajectories are defined for each EV segment and each scenario Stock share in scenario CC Stock share in scenario CC Passenger cars Vans 34% 48% Thousand 27% 46% Million 4 800 3 600 2 400 1 200 0 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 Trucks Buses Thousand Thousand 7% 21% 25% 46% 80 8 =
Slide 131: EV assumptions for the different scenarios
EV assumptions for the different scenarios Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 132: What’s my incentive?
Different questions will drive EV charging behavior, leading to 9 profiles. Where do I charge ? What’s my incentive? Regional tariff Do I allow V2G ? Home Capacity Yes Charge ASAP PV self- Time of No Work consumption Use Public Regional tariff Dynamic contract 132 Regional tariff can either be Time
Slide 133: EV charging varies per charging location
EV charging varies per charging location Charging at home Charging at work % of daily energy needs Winter Summer 14 12 10 8 2026 6 2030 2036 4 2 0 0 6 12 18 24 0 6 12 18 24 0 6 12 18 24
Slide 134: Low flex and high flex profiles
Sunny day Cloudy day GW 33 Low flex +250 MW +700 MW 22 +600 MW -350 MW BASE 11 -800 MW 00 GW 33 +200 MW +400 MW 22 +150 MW BASE +200 MW 11 High flex AF25 - First results -650 MW -650 MW 00 0 6 12 18 24 0 6 12 18 24 Hour of the day Hour of the day
Slide 135: Flexibility assumed to increase for EV charging
Flexibility is assumed to increase for EV charging Million 4 3.9 3.4 3 2.8 2.6 1.8 2.0 2 1 0 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 2035 Sensitivities Low flex 50% 60% High flex 60% 80% 135 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 136: Flexibility assumed to increase for EV charging
Flexibility is assumed to increase for EV charging EV includes passenger cars and vans. 136 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 137: HP assumptions for the different scenarios
HP assumptions for the different scenarios Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 138: Heat pump sales increased in the past
Heat pump sales increased in the past, as needed to decarbonise building sector TWh 8 +5.6TWh Avg. 21’ – 24’ 6,8 +0.15 6 TWh/y +2.8TWh 4,0 4 3,2 +2.4 TWh 2,5 3,6 2 1,2 1,4 2,3 0,6 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: Elia computation based on assumed space and water heating demand and efficiency Data assum
Slide 139: Heat pump stock by type and scenario
Millions Millions Share of primary heating Avg. 20’ – 24’ appliances*: +0.15 M//y Air-Air secondary Air-Air primary Ground-Water Air-Water Prosumer Power Current Commitments Constrained Transition Data at the end of the mentioned year *Primary heating appliances include gas boilers, oil boilers, 50%
Slide 140: Heat pump sales by type and scenario
thousands thousands Share of Avg. 21’ – 24’ primary heating 5% 14% 28% appliances*: +13 k//y Air-Air secondary Air-Air primary Ground-Water Air-Water Data at the end of the mentioned year Prosumer Power Current Commitments Constrained Transition *Primary heating appliances include gas boilers, oil b
Slide 141: Heat pump consumption by scenario
Avg. 21’ – 24’ TWh +0.15 TWh TWh/y Prosumer Power Current Commitments Constrained Transition Source: Elia computation based on assumed space and water heating demand and efficiency Data assumed at the end of the year. Secondary heat pumps are air-air heat pumps assumed to cover 20% of yearly heating
Slide 142: Heat pump profiles vary across climate years
Heat pump profiles vary across climate years 1400 1200 Max 1000 800 P90 600 Average 400 P10 200 Min 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 143: Heat pump profiles by climate year
Clean slide Each line represents the average across the 200 climate years
Slide 144: Flexibility for HPs assumed to increase in a limited manner
Flexibility for HPs are assumed to increase, though in a limited manner 2.4 2 1,5 1.4 1.2 1,1 1.0 1 0.7 0,7 0.7 0 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 2035 Sensitivities Low flex 15% 20% High flex 40% 50% 144 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 145: Flexibility is assumed to increase for EV charging
Flexibility is assumed to increase for EV charging 145 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 146: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
146 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 147: Number of unlocked assets in short-term markets
Back-up slide – number of unlocked assets in short-term markets AdeqFlex'25
Slide 148: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
148 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 149: Belgium’s relative increase in line with other countries
Belgium’s relative increase compared to 2024 in line with other countries projection 2024 = 1 DE +320 TWh 1.7 BE Prosumer Power 1.6 DK +25 TWh BE Current Commitments 1.5 NL +65 TWh GB +150 TWh 1.4 BE Constrained Transition 1.3 FR +100 TWh 1.2 1.1 1.0 2025 2030 2035 Trajectories for other countries c
Slide 150: Contribution to security of supply of energy-limited technologies
Contribution to security of supply of energy-limited technologies with increasing amount of flexibility 150 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 151: Contribution to security of supply of energy-limited technologies
Contribution to security of supply of energy-limited technologies with increasing amount of flexibility 151 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 152: Contribution to security of supply of energy-limited technologies
Contribution to security of supply of energy-limited technologies with increasing amount of flexibility 152 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 153: Aggregate EV profiles change over time
Over time the aggregate EV* profiles changes In magnitude and shape, as flexibility grows Sunny day Cloudy day 3,000 MW 2,000 2036 1,000 2030 2026 0 0 6 12 18 24 0 6 12 18 24 Hour of the day Hour of the day *Passenger cars and vans Illustration for the Current Commitments scenario 153 Aggregate prof
Slide 154: Comparison of EV profiles AdeqFlex’23 – AdeqFlex’25
Comparison of EV* profiles AdeqFlex’23 – AdeqFlex’25 Flatter profiles following inclusion of work and public charging % of daily AdeqFlex’23 AdeqFlex’25 energy needs Cloudy – winter Cloudy – winter 12 8 2026 2030 4 2036 0 0 6 12 18 24 0 6 12 18 24 Hour of the day Hour of the day 154 *Passenger cars
Slide 155: Comparison of EV profiles AdeqFlex’23 – AdeqFlex’25
Comparison of EV profiles AdeqFlex’23 – AdeqFlex’25 Visible inclusion of work and public charging % of daily energy needs 12 2026 2030 8 AdeqFlex’23 AdeqFlex ‘25 4 0 0 6 12 18 24 0 6 12 18 24 Hour of the day Hour of the day 155 *Passenger cars and vans Adequacy & Flexibility study 2026-36
Slide 156: From AdeqFlex’23 to AdeqFlex’25 – 2030 (CC scenario)
➢ From AdeqFlex ’23 to AdeqFlex ’25 – 2030 (CC scenario) New capacities* Interconnectors developed in the CRM & offshore Changes in load Changes in flexibility 2.500 Changes in residential flexibility 500 400 700 800 1.300 600 100 100 400 0 900 600 200 500 100 Generation GAP AdeqFlex’23 GAP AdeqFlex