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Swiss Re — Expert Forum on health risk factors 2014
24 slides from Swiss Re's conference presentation, Oct 15, 2014
Slide 1: Health risk factor time trends and risk prevention
Health risk factor time trends and risk prevention Daniel Ryan, Head of R&D – Life & Health & Big Data
Slide 2: Seeing the benefits of trends in risk factors
Seeing the benefits of trends in risk factors Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 2
Slide 3: Rapid pace of improvements in life expectancy
Rapid pace of improvements in life expectancy 10 year increase in life expectancy Source: Global Burden of Disease 2010 Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 3
Slide 4: International trends in cause-specific mortality
International trends in cause-specific mortality - myocardial infarction (1980-2006) Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 4
Slide 5: Leading risks factors
Leading risks factors Analysis by region from Global Burden of Disease 2010 Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014
Slide 6: Pioneers in assessing importance of risk factors
Pioneers in assessing importance of risk factors • Capewell & Critchley explained historical changes in CHD mortality through observed changes in risk factors and treatments • Initial studies in UK, USA and other developed countries, but more recently focusing on former East European countries and B
Slide 7: Country differences in explanatory studies
Country differences in explanatory studies % reduction in CHD mortality Treatments Risk factors Unexplained United States, 1968-76 [14] 40% 54% 6% New Zealand, 1974-81 [15]* 40% 60% Holland, 1978-85 [17] 46% 44% 10% United States, 1980-90 [13] 43% 50% 7% IMPACT Scotland, 1975-94 [18] 35% 55% 10% IMP
Slide 8: Explaining increase in CHD deaths in Beijing
Explaining increase in CHD deaths in Beijing Figure 1. CHD mortality trends in Beijing 1984 to 1999: additional deaths attributable to risk factor changes and deaths prevented or postponed by treatments. Copyright © American Heart Association, Inc. All rights reserved. Critchley J et al. Circulation
Slide 9: Understanding the drivers to future longevity
Understanding the drivers to future longevity GENETICS ENVIRONMENT HEALTHCARE BEHAVIOUR INTERACTIONS Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 9
Slide 10: Healthcare in the future
Healthcare in the future Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 10
Slide 11: Current cost of pharmaceutical research
Current cost of pharmaceutical research Total R&D Number of drugs R&D Spending Spending 1997- Company Ticker approved Per Drug ($Mil) 2011 ($Mil) AstraZeneca AZN 5 11,790.93 58,955 GlaxoSmithKline GSK 10 8,170.81 81,708 Sanofi SNY 8 7,909.26 63,274 Roche Holding AG RHHBY 11 7,803.77 85,841 Pfizer In
Slide 12: The contribution of robots to our future
The contribution of robots to our future New possibilities for healthcare delivery & support Source: Cyberdyne & Tsukuba University Source: Toyota Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 12
Slide 13: The rediscovery of regenerative medicine
The rediscovery of regenerative medicine High capacity self-renewal Adult cells e.g. bone, cartilage Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell iPSC Potential to make ‘all’ cell types Nobel Prize October 2012 John Gurdon & Shinya Yamanaka © 2012 The Actuarial Profession www.actuaries.org.uk Daniel Ryan | Exper
Slide 14: New horizons in curative healthcare
New horizons in curative healthcare Remedial Preventive Curative & Prophylactic Cure Influence Cellular Networks Control Symptoms Prevent Symptoms at “pre-disease” level Plus markers: Target Cell Networks in eg: CA125 nucleus & cytoplasm Caused by: Organ Dysfunction to influence structure & patterns
Slide 15: Individual choices in the future
Individual choices in the future Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 15
Slide 16: 1 billion will die from smoking in 21st century
1 billion will die from smoking in 21st century Source: Tobacco Cancer Atlas Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 16
Slide 17: Promoting healthy behaviour
More information Promoting healthy behaviour Salience Norms Google cafeteria hid unhealthy food Yellow tape was placed across a out of sight and out of reach and shopping cart indicating where fruit and vegetables should be placed. placed healthy food more centrally. Incentives Result: fat consumpti
Slide 18: What we share with one another every minute
What we share with one another every minute Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 18
Slide 19: Our ability to influence risk factors in the future
Our ability to influence risk factors in the future Wearable sensors Smart lenses Smart Pill Smart garments Handheld medical scanner Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 19
Slide 20: Towards a better understanding of the future
Towards a better understanding of the future Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014 20
Slide 21: Developing our disease-centred view of longevity
Developing our disease-centred view of longevity Individual Risk Healthcare Doctor-Patient Research & General Factors Funding Interaction Development drivers Circulatory Respiratory Multiple diseases Disease type & Healthy Death progression Neurological Cancer Current Risk factors treatments Breast
Slide 22: SEARCH – raising our ambition for better predictions of future mortality & longevity
SEARCH – raising our ambition for better predictions of future mortality & longevity • Complementary to actuarial/demographic approaches – stochastic mortality models – blending between current mortality improvements and long-term assumptions over defined horizons • Bringing together: – Annual asses
Slide 23: Thank you
Thank you Daniel Ryan | Expert Forum on health risk factors | 15 October 2014
Slide 24: Legal notice
Legal notice ©2014 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivative works of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without the prior written permission of Swiss Re. The information and opinions contained in the presentati