Muhlenkamp Fund · NASDAQ:MUHLX

Muhlenkamp Fund — Muhlenkamp & Company — Investor Presentation (November 2018)

21 slides from Muhlenkamp Fund's investor presentation, Nov 15, 2018

  1. Slide 1: Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast November 15, 2018

    Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast November 15, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management © 2018 All rights reserved.

  2. Slide 2: Welcome

    Welcome • All participants are in a listen-only mode. • We will conduct a question-and-response session after the presentation. • This webcast is being recorded. Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

  3. Slide 3: Our Checklist: Current State and Future Outlook

    What we observe as the Our Checklist: Current State: Future Outlook: 1. Consumer Spending Slowdown in home buying Slowdown continues 2. Business Investment Good Good 3. Credit Default/Bank Health Good except auto loans Good except auto loans 4. Velocity of Money Ticking up Unsure 5. Inflation 2-3% U

  4. Slide 4: U.S. Real GDP (Annual YoY %)

    U.S. Real GDP (Annual YoY %) 1998-2019 6 5 Estimated 4 3 2 Percent 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year Source: Bloomberg; Estimated data OECD

  5. Slide 5: U.S. Unemployment Rate

    U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 1947-October 2018 18 U-6 Unemployed + Part Time + Margin % of (Labor Force + Margin) 16 U-3 US Unemployment Rate Total in Labor Force 14 12 Percent 10 8 6 4 2 0 1947 1951 1955 1958 1962 1966 1970 1973 1977 1981 1984 1988 1992 1995 1999 2003 2007 2010 2014 2

  6. Slide 6: U.S. Consumer Confidence

    Consumer U.S. Consumer Confidence 1995-October 2018 (Monthly) 165 Recessions 145 125 Index Value 105 85 65 45 25 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Year Source: Conference Board;

  7. Slide 7: Monthly Retail Sales

    Consumer Monthly Retail Sales Retail Trade and Food Services: U.S. Total — Seasonally Adjusted Sales 2007-September 2018 550,000 500,000 450,000 $ Million 400,000 350,000 300,000 Total Sales Total Sales Ex. Auto 250,000 200,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Source:

  8. Slide 8: New Single Family Home Sales and Prices

    New Single Family Homes Sales (SAARS) New Home Prices (NSA) 2007-October2018 Monthly 1000 $400 900 $350 800 $300 700 Units (Thousands) Price (Thousands) $250 600 500 $200 400 $150 300 Units (Left Axis) $100 200 Median Price (Right Axis) $50 100 0 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

  9. Slide 9: Credit: 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type

    Credit Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type 2003-June 2018 (quarterly) 14 JU9DI9d Credit Card Student Loan ““AutgolLoan HE Revolving }USDI9d c—) 8b-4eW Li-des Zb-4eW 9l-des 9L-4eW gi-des Sb-4eW pi-des bbe el-des €L-4ew ZL-des Zb-4eW bi-des bb4ew Ol-des OL-4ew 60-des 60-4eW 80-des 80-4

  10. Slide 10: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

    Business NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 2005-September2018 (Monthly) 115 110 105 100 Index Value 95 90 85 80 75 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Year Source: National Federation of Independent Business NFIB; Data Normalize

  11. Slide 11: Inflation: U.S. CPI Urban Consumers

    Percent -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan-97 Inflation Jan-98 Jan-99 Source: Bloomberg Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 YoY % Date Jan-09 Non Seasonally Adjusted Jan-10 1997-September2018 Jan-11 U.S. CPI Urban Consumers Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Fed Targ

  12. Slide 12: Velocity of Money - M2 Money Supply

    Velocity Velocity of Money - M2 Money Supply 1959-September2018 (Quarterly) 2.3 Velocity of Money = Ratio of 2.2 monetary aggregate M2 to Nominal GDP 2.1 2 Turnover Rate 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Year S

  13. Slide 13: Interest Rates

    Interest Rates 2007-November 1, 2018 7 30 Year Mortgage Rate (National Average) 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 6 U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate 5 4 Percent 3 Inflation 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Source: Bloomberg

  14. Slide 14: Assets on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

    Fed Assets on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet 2007-October 31, 2018 5.0 QE2 begins 4.5 QE1 begins QE3 begins 4.0 3.5 Dollars (Trillion) 3.0 2020 2.5 Target 2.0 Direct Holdings Emergency facilities 1.5 Securities held outright 1.0 0.5 0.0 1/3/07 10/3/07 7/3/08 4/3/09 1/3/10 10/3/10 7/3/11 4/3/12

  15. Slide 15: Major Stock Exchanges YTD Performance

    Major Stock Exchanges YTD Performance (November 12, 2018) 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% India NSE Nifty 50 Index -20% S&P 500 Index Germany DAX Index -25% Japan NIKKEI 225 Turkey Borsa Istanbul 100 Index China Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index -30% August April January February May July November

  16. Slide 16: Massive decline in regulations issued after President Trump took office

    Massive decline in regulations issued after President Trump took office Number of economically significant rules published by presidential year 100 4 90 5 80 5 705 60 5 After 505 President Trump took 40 - office 304 J *y 1» 10 4 | 0 - 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 The George Washington Uni

  17. Slide 17: Sovereign Interest Rate: Italy and Germany

    10 Year Sovereign Interest Rate 2005-November 1, 2018 7 6 Italy 5 Germany 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 -1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Source: Bloomberg

  18. Slide 18: Investor Credit vs. S&P Index

    Investor Credit* vs. S&P 500 Index 1992-9/30/2018 Credit Balance calculated as the sum of Free Credit Cash Accounts and Credit Balances in Margin Accounts minus Margin Debt $350,000 - Gag Investors Have Negative Cash Balance (Left Axis) G5 Investors Have Positive Cash Balance (Left Axis) — S&P 500 I

  19. Slide 19: Our Checklist: Current State and Future Outlook

    What we observe as the Our Checklist: Current State: Future Outlook: 1. Consumer Spending Slowdown in home buying Slowdown continues 2. Business Investment Good Good 3. Credit Default/Bank Health Good except auto loans Good except auto loans 4. Velocity of Money Ticking up Unsure 5. Inflation 2-3% U

  20. Slide 20: Questions and Responses

    Questions and Responses Click on the orange arrow in the upper right-hand corner of your screen to open the control panel where you may submit questions. For some devices, look for the question mark at the top or bottom of your screen. We will contact you if we did not have time to respond to your q

  21. Slide 21: Intelligent Investment Management

    Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

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