Vontobel Holding AG · SIX:VONN
Vontobel — Webinar Electric Vehicles (February 2021)
20 slides from Vontobel's conference presentation, February 2021
Slide 1: Electric Vehicle: An attempt to look into the future
Public Electric Vehicle: An attempt to look into the future Stefan Eppenberger Daniel Maier, CFA Equity & Commodity Strategist Head Thematic Investing February 2021
Slide 2: Electric Vehicle - Introduction
Public Electric Vehicle - Introduction February 2021 Although Tesla sells virtually almost no cars, … … it is worth more than its competitors combined Numbers of Cars Sold in 2020 (projected, in millions) 50 Fiat Chrysler Honda Ford 40 SAIC Motor Hyundai-Kia 30 General Motors 20 Renault- Nissan Volk
Slide 3: EV will overtake ICE car sales in 2037 latest
Public EV will overtake ICE car sales in 2037 latest February 2021 Within 17 years, EV will overtake IC car sales China & Europe have a head start over the U.S. Share of annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain EV share of new passenger vehicle sales by region 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20
Slide 4: Car producers' plans confirm the upcoming boom
Public Car producers' plans confirm the upcoming boom February 2021 EV Sales targets of manufacturers match with the expected path by BNEF experts 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Electric vehicle share of annual passenger vehicle sales Remarks: Electric includes plug-in hybrids
Slide 5: Norway is 15 years ahead
Public Norway is 15 years ahead February 2021 Norway leads the transition to zero car emission Overview of the Norwegian EV policy EVs as a % of total new passenger vehicle sales in selected – The official national goal is that all new cars sold European countries (in 2019) by 2025 should be zero-em
Slide 6: More and more countries follow the Norwegian model
Public More and more countries follow the Norwegian model February 2021 Announced target date for achieving 100% zero emissions vehicles sales Denmark, Iceland, Germany, New York, Ireland, New Jersey, Oregon, Netherlands, Washington, Vermont, Sweden, UK, Canada, Rhode Island, Slovenia, Québec, Franc
Slide 7: Regulation will be a key driver of EV demand
Public Regulation will be a key driver of EV demand February 2021 EU CO2 emissions regulation efforts accelerate However, car producer can not keep pace so far European fleet average CO2 emission limit (grams/km) - NEDC* 140 200 120 180 175 162 160 100 140 140 80 120 37.5% 120 reduction! 60 100 95 8
Slide 8: Vehicle fleet transition needs a lot of time
Public Vehicle fleet transition needs a lot of time February 2021 The streetscape will be dominated by ICE cars for a long time to come Share 2040: Global passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain 1.8 Fuel 1.0% Billions cell 1.6 Plug-in 5.0% hybrid 1.4 Battery 1.2 26.0% electric 1.0 0.8 0.6 Internal 68.
Slide 9: EVs are already competitive in terms of running costs
Public EVs are already competitive in terms of running costs February 2021 Not the oil prices but taxes make ICE car less attractive, maintenance costs also much lower Annual fuel costs for 12’000 km driving pattern (EU5* average in Euros) 900 800 700 600 471 500 447 400 300 44 200 373 260 269 100 0
Slide 10: Battery deflation is key for the success of electric vehicles
Public Battery deflation is key for the success of electric vehicles February 2021 Price deflation of 20% p.a. over last 10 years! Battery deflation needed to be competitive 1'400 Medium segment BEV pre-tax prices 40'000 1'183 1'200 Breakeven: Pre-tax price for 35'000 a medium segment ICE 1'000 30'0
Slide 11: Nickel could turn out as the big winner
Public Nickel could turn out as the big winner February 2021 Nickel demand composition will change a lot too Will the large reserves be available in time? Nickel demand by segment in million metric tons per Supply demand balance for Nickel year (Goldman Sachs protections in 1’000 tons) 2'000 200 150
Slide 12: Electric Vehicle - Key takeaways
Public Electric Vehicle - Key takeaways February 2021 EVs will be more powerful, cheaper and greener than today’s EV boom has finally started ICE cars and will be best-selling cars in 15 years at the latest The speed of EV mass market adoption will be driven Battery deflation is key by the extent of
Slide 13: Vontobel Electric Vehicle Basket
Public Vontobel Electric Vehicle Basket February 2021 Source: General Motors 13
Slide 14: How is an electric vehicle constructed?
Public How is an electric vehicle constructed? February 2021 Structure of lithium-ion cells (example) Separator Load Structure of an electric vehicle Unload Oxygen Cobalt/Nickel Lithium-Ion Graphite Electrolyte Source: US Department of Energy, Elektronik Kompendium, Vontobel 14
Slide 15: Strategy Overview
Public Strategy Overview February 2021 15
Slide 16: Portfolio
Public Portfolio February 2021 Name Classification Init. Weight Region Market Capitalization Arcimoto Inc EV Manufacturer 2.3% North America Small Cap ElectraMeccanica Vehicles Corp EV Manufacturer 2.3% North America Small Cap Fisker Inc EV Manufacturer 4.5% North America Mid Cap GreenPower Motor Co
Slide 17: Company Examples
Public Company Examples February 2021 Workhorse Group Fisker Romeo Power Wuxi Lead Blink Charging Source: Unsplash, Company Websites Vontobel has not acquired any rights or license to reproduce the trademarks, logos, or images set out in this document. The trademark, logos and images set out in this
Slide 18: Modelportfolio allocation breakdown
Public Modelportfolio allocation breakdown February 2021 Industry Breakdown Region Breakdown North America 38.6% Europe 18.2% Asia-Pacific 43.2% Market Cap Breakdown Small Cap 11.4% Mid Cap 36.4% Large Cap 47.7% Mega Cap 4.5% Source: Unsplash, Company Websites 18
Slide 19: Vontobel Electric Vehicle Basket
Public Vontobel Electric Vehicle Basket February 2021 New Vontobel Tracker Underlying Vontobel Electric Vehicle Basket 0.75% Upfront Fees 0.75% ongoing fee (p.a.) Initial fixing 19.02.2021 Final fixing 08.02.2024 Product type Tracker-Certificate (static*) CH0553380368 (CHF) Product ISIN CH0553380350
Slide 20: Legal information
Public Legal information February 2021 Investment Suitability: This publication is intended for general distribution. It is not part of any offer or recommendation and does not take into account your knowledge, experience and personal situation which is required for personal investment advice. This
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